DAVE MALINSKY
Yankees (RL) @ Blue Jays (RL)
PICK: Blue Jays (RL) 4*
We have been putting a fair amount of money into play against the Yankees in recent weeks, and will continue to do so as long as we get the kind of extreme value that the marketplace keeps creating. The major move to them this morning, which now enables us to take Toronto +1.5 in a pick’em range, is the latest example.
As we wrote prior to cashing that 4* ticket behind A. J. Burnett last night, these are not the Bronx Bombers in 2008. The offense is simply middle of the pack in the American League, and that means that breaking games open is not easy - they have to fight for whatever they can get. So let us put it into the proper perspective in terms of tonight. the Yankees are just 45-80 as -1.5 this season, including 21-38 on the road. That can not get you into a pick’em range against a hot opponent that is bringing a lot of fire to the table.
So does the Andy Pettitte vs. David Purcey matchup explain the line? Only in terms of reputations. As -1.5, the Yankees are just 10-16 behind Pettitte, and in his only outing vs. the Blue Jays he lost 4-1 here despite not having to go up against Alex Rios or Vernon Wells. Meanwhile Purcey brings a 2-3/5.93 to the pitching forms, but all that does is create confusion in the marketplace and bring us value. Here is the story -
The young left-hander is a solid prospect, and at AAA Syracuse worked to a 2.69 ERA over 117 innings, with 121 strikeouts vs. only 97 hits allowed. But twice in the early part of the season he was called up for one-off emergency starts when he was not ready, and it showed. But since being made a full member of the rotation it has been a different story - a 2-2/4.30 , with more strikeouts (20) than hits allowed (18) is an indication of what he can become, and note that those games include difficult road tests against the Texas and Detroit offenses. His last outing was a sparkler against the Tigers in which he worked six shutout innings, only allowing two this, and that means plenty of confidence entering tonight’s start.
The Blue Jays are just a game behind the Yankees in the standings now, which means a lot of them. They have played solid baseball under Cito Gaston, and their recent 6-1 run against the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers coincides with the return of Wells to the lineup. We do not need them to win here, just be in the hunt to the final pitch, and at pick’em that call brings strong edges.
Yankees (RL) @ Blue Jays (RL)
PICK: Blue Jays (RL) 4*
We have been putting a fair amount of money into play against the Yankees in recent weeks, and will continue to do so as long as we get the kind of extreme value that the marketplace keeps creating. The major move to them this morning, which now enables us to take Toronto +1.5 in a pick’em range, is the latest example.
As we wrote prior to cashing that 4* ticket behind A. J. Burnett last night, these are not the Bronx Bombers in 2008. The offense is simply middle of the pack in the American League, and that means that breaking games open is not easy - they have to fight for whatever they can get. So let us put it into the proper perspective in terms of tonight. the Yankees are just 45-80 as -1.5 this season, including 21-38 on the road. That can not get you into a pick’em range against a hot opponent that is bringing a lot of fire to the table.
So does the Andy Pettitte vs. David Purcey matchup explain the line? Only in terms of reputations. As -1.5, the Yankees are just 10-16 behind Pettitte, and in his only outing vs. the Blue Jays he lost 4-1 here despite not having to go up against Alex Rios or Vernon Wells. Meanwhile Purcey brings a 2-3/5.93 to the pitching forms, but all that does is create confusion in the marketplace and bring us value. Here is the story -
The young left-hander is a solid prospect, and at AAA Syracuse worked to a 2.69 ERA over 117 innings, with 121 strikeouts vs. only 97 hits allowed. But twice in the early part of the season he was called up for one-off emergency starts when he was not ready, and it showed. But since being made a full member of the rotation it has been a different story - a 2-2/4.30 , with more strikeouts (20) than hits allowed (18) is an indication of what he can become, and note that those games include difficult road tests against the Texas and Detroit offenses. His last outing was a sparkler against the Tigers in which he worked six shutout innings, only allowing two this, and that means plenty of confidence entering tonight’s start.
The Blue Jays are just a game behind the Yankees in the standings now, which means a lot of them. They have played solid baseball under Cito Gaston, and their recent 6-1 run against the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers coincides with the return of Wells to the lineup. We do not need them to win here, just be in the hunt to the final pitch, and at pick’em that call brings strong edges.
BOBBY MAXWELL
This one could be quick as both teams have been known to struggle with their offense and both have dominating pitchers on the hill today. We're going to take our chances, grab the plus-money and play the Padres in this one.
Jake Peavy (9-8, 2,61 ERA) is on the mound for San Diego against Arizona's Danny Haren (13-6, 2.96). Peavy is just 1-2 in his last three starts but he's got a 2.25 ERA. He gave up just one run on four hits in seven innings of a 3-2 win over the Brewers on Thursday, and only once in his last 10 starts has he given up more than three runs in a start.
The Padres are 5-3 in his last eight starts against the D'Backs and on July 5 he went to Arizona and blanked the D'Backs on three hits for seven innings in a 4-2 victory. He's blanked the D'Backs in two of his last three outings in the desert.
Danny Haren is on the mound for Arizona and he's 2-1 in his last three starts but his ERA is 5.59 and the opposition has hit .360 against him in those three. Last time he pitched at home he allowed six runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings of an 11-4 loss to the Braves. In his last two home starts he's allowed 10 runs in 11.1 innings.
San Diego has won three of its last five in Arizona and we'll take the plus-money in this one. Play the Padres behind Peavy.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
This one could be quick as both teams have been known to struggle with their offense and both have dominating pitchers on the hill today. We're going to take our chances, grab the plus-money and play the Padres in this one.
Jake Peavy (9-8, 2,61 ERA) is on the mound for San Diego against Arizona's Danny Haren (13-6, 2.96). Peavy is just 1-2 in his last three starts but he's got a 2.25 ERA. He gave up just one run on four hits in seven innings of a 3-2 win over the Brewers on Thursday, and only once in his last 10 starts has he given up more than three runs in a start.
The Padres are 5-3 in his last eight starts against the D'Backs and on July 5 he went to Arizona and blanked the D'Backs on three hits for seven innings in a 4-2 victory. He's blanked the D'Backs in two of his last three outings in the desert.
Danny Haren is on the mound for Arizona and he's 2-1 in his last three starts but his ERA is 5.59 and the opposition has hit .360 against him in those three. Last time he pitched at home he allowed six runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings of an 11-4 loss to the Braves. In his last two home starts he's allowed 10 runs in 11.1 innings.
San Diego has won three of its last five in Arizona and we'll take the plus-money in this one. Play the Padres behind Peavy.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
ANTHONY CAPONE
*NOW 14-3 FOR Bonus Plays
Royals / Indians
Bonus Play: Royals -110
Today I am all over the value being offered with KC and Gil Meche .They have only won twice in their last 10 tries with Meche getting one of those victories .The Royals are an outstanding (11-1) in Meche's last 12 starts .Meche has certainly kept the ball in the Park this season giving up only 3 Home Runs in his last 10 Road starts . Jackson for the Indians will be facing a lineup that has been Murder on Lefties all year long . On the season the Royals have hit over .280 vs South paws and in their last 10 (.338) .This adds up for a long night for Jackson and the Tribe.Take the Royals .
*NOW 14-3 FOR Bonus Plays
Royals / Indians
Bonus Play: Royals -110
Today I am all over the value being offered with KC and Gil Meche .They have only won twice in their last 10 tries with Meche getting one of those victories .The Royals are an outstanding (11-1) in Meche's last 12 starts .Meche has certainly kept the ball in the Park this season giving up only 3 Home Runs in his last 10 Road starts . Jackson for the Indians will be facing a lineup that has been Murder on Lefties all year long . On the season the Royals have hit over .280 vs South paws and in their last 10 (.338) .This adds up for a long night for Jackson and the Tribe.Take the Royals .
Anyone seen this?
Ryan's AL 15* Top-25 DOG of the Year+bonus total
For the 1st time in nearly 3 seasons, Ryan’s Ai Simulator has identified a 15* graded play. These rare plays rank among the Top-25 strongest plays ever graded spanning 15+ seasons. The play is backed by a DOUBLE Guarantee meaning you will get the next DAY'S PLAY FREE if the 15* loses.
Ryan's AL 15* Top-25 DOG of the Year+bonus total
For the 1st time in nearly 3 seasons, Ryan’s Ai Simulator has identified a 15* graded play. These rare plays rank among the Top-25 strongest plays ever graded spanning 15+ seasons. The play is backed by a DOUBLE Guarantee meaning you will get the next DAY'S PLAY FREE if the 15* loses.
Just an FYI.....nobody is hotter this month than Vegas-Runner... his record & Units for the month of August & 2008 are:
ACCOUNT BALANCE Based on $100 Per Unit Wagered :
HEAVY HITTERS (2008) = +$10,146 Profit.....(+101.46 Units)
ALL-ACCESS (2008) = +$9,048 Profit.....(+90.48 Units)
HEAVY HITTERS (Aug) = +$4,627 Profit.....(+46.27 Units)
ALL-ACCESS (Aug) = +$5,574 Profit.....(+55.74 Units)
ACCOUNT BALANCE Based on $100 Per Unit Wagered :
HEAVY HITTERS (2008) = +$10,146 Profit.....(+101.46 Units)
ALL-ACCESS (2008) = +$9,048 Profit.....(+90.48 Units)
HEAVY HITTERS (Aug) = +$4,627 Profit.....(+46.27 Units)
ALL-ACCESS (Aug) = +$5,574 Profit.....(+55.74 Units)
Hot streaks, Cold streaks. Every handicapper will have them but these results show how a pro bettor is able to make money doing this. No bet over 3 units and 90% are only 1 & 2 and it shows here over 100 units of pure profit. damn that is some good work. Nobody is going to win all the time but even less of these guys are actually able to turn a profit and willing to show their work, win or lose. Keep it up VR :cripwalk:
