STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
WEDNESDAY, JULY 9th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 7/9/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #15
The baseball season doesn’t offer players many breathers during the 162-game gauntlet from April to October. That’s why the Major League Baseball All-Star Break is always a big deal – even if guys aren’t featured in the annual showcase of baseball’s top talents.
Some teams are closing in on their division leaders and look at the final stretch before the break as a perfect time to put their heads down and go all out before some time off. Others clubs, the ones sliding back in the standings, are counting the days until time away from the diamond, clubhouse and the probing media may not be 100 percent focused on the schedule ahead.
According to StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst James Vogel here are three teams to watch in the final week of Major League Baseball betting action before the All-Star Break.
•Seattle Mariners (49-40, +956 units)
The Mariners are playing great ball with seven wins in their last 10 outings, heading into Tuesday’s home game against Minnesota. The pitching has been superb with Seattle giving up two or fewer runs in six of its last eight games, including two shutouts. The bullpen is the best in the majors - 2.45 ERA - with 28 saves and nine blown saves. The Mariner are third in the American League West – 7.5 games behind Oakland – and have a great opportunity to close that gap during an upcoming three-game showdown with the A’s at Safeco Field before the break.
•Washington Nationals (48-40, -80 units)
The Nationals were a little slow going in the spring, especially in May, but have been picking up steam in the National League East. Washington is just half a game behind Atlanta heading into Tuesday’s interleague contest with Baltimore, having won seven of their previous 10 games. The Nats stumbled Monday, giving up eight runs to the Orioles, but have been very stingy with the runs in recent outings. Before that loss, Washington allowed more than three runs just once in the eight games previous. The Nationals can push themselves ahead of the Braves during a road set in Philadelphia before the break – already winning four of six games versus the Phillies this season.
•San Diego Padres (40-49, -1062 units)
Could one of the worst bets in baseball suddenly be on the rise? The Padres have been plagued by poor hitting all season – ranked 30th in the bigs – but their bats have come to life in recent outings. San Diego scored eight runs on July 1 and put six on the board in Colorado Monday, giving backers their sixth win in the past 10 games – a haul of +348 units. Of course, Coors Field could have something to do with that Monday result. But so could getting out of power-sucking Petco Park, which is among the most pitcher-friendly parks in America. The Padres could enjoy life on the road before the break. They head into the All-Star hiatus off a four-game road series against the Dodgers, who have four players looking past San Diego and to the ASG in Minnesota.
Tuesday's MLB Roundup
•Reds' Votto Back On DL With Leg Injury: The Reds placed first baseman Joey Votto back on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday with a nagging thigh injury that is expected to limit him for the rest of the season. Catcher Brayan Pena was activated off the paternity list before a doubleheader against the Chicago Cubs. Pena will be one of the primary fill-ins at first base while Votto is gone. It's unclear when he might be back. Votto earlier missed 23 games while on the DL with a strained muscle above his left knee. It's not expected to heal completely until the offseason.
Votto was limited when he returned from the disabled list, batting only .250 in 23 games. He hasn't homered since May 10. The knee began bothering him again last week. Tests on Monday found that he has aggravated the injury. The Reds will consider trading for an experienced first baseman as a backup. Nobody else on the roster has much experience at first. Outfielder Jay Bruce made his first appearance there since high school on Monday night. Third baseman Todd Frazier also has played at first base. For now, Price plans to use those three at the position.
•Indians Place Masterson On DL With Knee Injury: The Cleveland Indians have placed pitcher Justin Masterson on the 15-day disabled list with inflammation in his right knee Tuesday. Masterson, the team's opening day starter, is 4-6 with a 5.51 ERA. The right-hander allowed five runs and six hits in two-plus innings Monday against the New York Yankees, and was pulled without retiring a batter in the third. He walked three, hit a batter and rarely topped 90 mph in his 54 pitches, throwing only 24 strikes. Masterson has given up 19 runs, 27 hits and 17 walks in 18 innings over his last five starts. He has pitched more than four innings once in that stretch.
•Twins' Nolasco To DL With Elbow Strain: The Minnesota Twins feared after that right-hander Ricky Nolasco's elbow tightness during Sunday's game against the New York Yankees might be a problem and on Tuesday announced he was going on the 15-day disabled list. The move is retroactive to July 7. Nolasco was sent back to Minneapolis for tests after meeting with manager Ron Gardenhire on Monday in Seattle. To replace Nolasco on the roster, the Twins recalled catcher-outfielder Chris Herrmann from Triple-A Rochester. Herrmann was batting .291 in 22 games for Rochester.
In 18 starts this season, Nolasco is 5-7 with a 5.90 ERA, 28 walks and 72 strikeouts in 103 2/3 innings. The St. Paul Pioneer-Press reported that Nolasco had been battling elbow soreness since spring training but that he had pitched through the discomfort without saying much to the team. The 31-year-old starter signed a four-year contract worth a franchise-record $49 million in the offseason. He was coming off a 2013 season that included a 13-11 record and a 3.70 ERA with the Miami Marlins and Los Angeles Dodgers.
"Velocity was down," Twins assistant general manager Rob Antony told The Minneapolis Star Tribune on Monday. "He hasn't been as effective with his pitches. He hasn't had the same command that he's had. Basically, everything he's done this year is nothing like the reports we had, or he's not pitching the same way he did last year."
•First-Place Brewers Keep On Sliding: The Milwaukee Brewers have been in sole possession of first place in the National League Central since April 9, and their four-game lead is the largest in any division. They're just not playing like a first-place team right now. Chase Utley hit a two-run homer, and Cole Hamels allowed one earned run in 6 2-3 innings for his first victory in a month as the Philadelphia Phillies edged Milwaukee 3-2 on Monday night, the sixth loss in seven games for the slumping Brewers. Hamels (3-5) allowed two runs and seven hits, struck out seven and walked two for his first victory since June 6 - a span of six starts.
Ken Giles finished the seventh and worked the eighth. Jonathan Papelbon pitched a perfect ninth inning for his 20th save in 22 chances. Philadelphia rebounded after falling a season-high 14 games below .500 on Sunday when Pittsburgh completed a series sweep. Dating to last season, the Phillies had lost 14 consecutive games and 27 of 28 when scoring three runs or fewer. Utley, the starting National League All-Star second baseman, staked the Phillies to a 2-0 lead in the first with his seventh homer, driving an 0-1 pitch from Marco Estrada (7-6) over the right-field wall. The Phillies extended the lead to 3-0 in the third when Utley singled with two outs. He then scored from first on Ryan Howard's single to right-center.
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Betting Notes - Wednesday
National League
•Padres-Rockies - 3:10 PM
--Stults is 1-1, 2.19 in his last two starts.
--Jurrjens gave up eight runs in 4.2 IP in his first '14 start.
--Padres won six of their last nine games.
--Colorado lost 18 of its last 22 games.
--Nine of last ten Stults starts stayed under the total.
•Marlins-Diamondbacks - 3:40 PM
--Eovaldi is 1-3, 5.70 in his last five starts.
--Collmenter is 3-1, 2.73 in his last four home starts.
--Miami is 13-8 in its last twenty-one road games.
--Diamondbacks lost six of their last nine games.
--Nine of last twelve Arizona games stayed under total.
•Braves-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Santana is 2-0, 2.57 in his last couple starts.
--Gee was 2-0, 1.35 in his last three starts before going on DL.
--Braves lost last three games, after winning nine in row.
--Mets won four of their last five games.
--Three of last four Santana starts stayed under.
•Cubs-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Beeler allowed one run in six IP in his first MLB start.
--Cincinnati won last seven Simon starts (3-0, 2.00 last five).
--Cubs are 0-5 since Samardzija trade, scoring eleven runs.
--Cincinnati won seven of its last eight home games.
--Seven of last ten Cincinnati games stayed under total.
•Phillies-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Hernandez is 0-3, 5.50 in his last three starts.
--Lohse is 2-1, 3.77 in his last five starts.
--Philly lost ten of its last fourteen games, but won last two.
--Milwaukee lost seven of its last eight games.
--Six of last eight Hernandez starts went over total.
•Pirates-Cardinals - 8:15 PM
--Cumpton is 3-0, 3.09 in his last five starts.
--Lynn is 2-1, 0.87 in his last three home starts.
--Pirates lost their last three road games, last two on walkoffs.
--St Louis won five of its last seven home games.
--Under is 8-2-1 in Cardinals' last eleven home games.
American League
•Blue Jays-Angels - 3:35 PM
--Stroman is 1-0, 1.25 in his last three starts.
--Wilson is 1-1, 7.27 in his last five starts.
--Blue Jays lost ten of their last twelve road games.
--Angels won 13 of their last 17 games; they're 11-1 in last 12 at home.
--Twelve of last thirteen Toronto games stayed under.
•Yankees-Indians - 7:05 PM
--McCarthy was 2-0, 2.13 in his last couple starts for Arizona.
--Tomlin is 0-3, 11.40 in his last three home starts.
--New York won five of their last seven road games.
--Indians won five of their last seven games.
--Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Cleveland home games.
•White Sox-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Sale is 3-0, 2.89 in his last four starts.
--De La Rosa is 1-0, 0.64 in his last two starts.
--White Sox won five of their last six games.
--Red Sox lost 13 of their last 18 games.
--15 of last 20 games at Fenway Park stayed under.
•Royals-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Ventura is 4-2, 2.52 in his last six starts.
--Cobb is 2-2, 5.73 in his last four starts.
--Royals lost three of their last four games.
--Tampa Bay won 11 of its last 14 games.
--Under is 4-1-1 in last six Stroman starts.
•Astros-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Keuchel is 0-2, 7.00 in his last three starts.
--Darvish is 1-0, 2.77 in his last two starts.
--Houston lost 15 of its last 21 games, but won last two.
--Rangers lost nine of their last ten games.
--Last five Texas games went over the total.
•Twins-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Gibson is 1-2, 11.25 in his last three starts.
--Elias is 0-2, 8.18 in his last couple starts.
--Minnesota lost six of its last eight games.
--Mariners won eight of their last eleven games.
--Five of last seven Gibson starts stayed under.
Interleague
•Dodgers-Tigers - 1:05 PM
--Greinke is 3-1, 3.04 in his last four starts.
--Scherzer is 2-0, 1.71 in his last three starts.
--Dodgers won seven of their last ten road games.
--Tigers lost three of their last four games.
--Six of last nine Scherzer starts went over total.
•Nationals-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Norris is 4-0, 2.55 in his last four starts.
--Fister is 7-2, 2.88 in his last ten starts.
--Orioles won seven of their last eight games.
--Washington won seven of its last nine games.
--Nine of last twelve Washington games went over.
•Athletics-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Hammel was 2-1, 2.79 in his last three starts for the Cubs.
--Cain is 0-4, 5.87 in his last five starts, 0-1, 1.35 in his last two.
--Oakland won its last six games, allowing five runs.
--Giants lost nine of their last twelve games.
--Last six Oakland games stayed under the total.
•Umpires Trends
-- Chi-Cin-- Underdogs won 12 of last 15 Wegner games; over is 7-4 in his last eleven games.
-- Atl-NY-- Over is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Barber games.
-- Phil-Mil-- Favorites won eight of last nine Kellogg games.
-- Pitt-StL-- Underdogs won nine of last 13 Foster games.
-- SD-Col-- 11 of last 15 Fagan games stayed under total.
-- Mia-Az-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Tumpane games.
-- NY-Clev-- Over is 6-2-1 in Woodring games this season.
-- Chi-Bos-- Under is 12-4-1 in Eddings games this season.
-- KC-TB-- Eight of last eleven Diaz games went over total.
-- Hst-Tex-- Underdogs won eight of last ten Miller games.
-- Tor-LA-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Wolf games.
-- Min-Sea-- Four of last five Morales games went over.
-- LA-Det-- Over is 10-5 in last 15 TBarrett games; visitor won last six.
-- Wsh-Blt-- Eight of last eleven Iassogna games stayed under.
-- A's-SF-- Four of last five Ripperger games went over; dogs won last four.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Right-hander Max Scherzer of the Detroit Tigers is 21-3 his last twenty-four home team starts. Last season's American League Cy Young winner has gone 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three starts since giving up a career worst-tying 10 runs in an 11-4 loss to Kansas City on June 17. He's struck out 28 in 21 innings in that stretch and allowed one run and two hits through eight innings of an 8-1 win over Tampa Bay on Thursday. Scherzer retired 23 of the final 24 hitters he faced.
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
•ARIZONA is 8-26 (-19.8 Units) against the money line versus an National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 3.4, OPPONENT 5.2.
•LA ANGELS are 14-0 UNDER (+14.1 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 2.7, OPPONENT 2.5.
•SAN DIEGO is 1-13 (-15.6 Units) against the run line versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.9, OPPONENT 5.0.
•ALFREDO SIMON is 13-0 (+14.2 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was SIMON 4.2, OPPONENT 1.8.
•KYLE LOHSE is 19-5 UNDER (+13.7 Units) versus an National League team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOHSE 3.8, OPPONENT 2.5.
•MAX SCHERZER is 13-3 (+11.7 Units) against the run line in home games after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SCHERZER 6.0, OPPONENT 2.6.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA DODGERS) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season - American League.
(53-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +38.9 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -128.2
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +2)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +2.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-7, +20.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (150-88, +33.2 units).
•Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts.
(43-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +37.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (40-19 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2, money line price: +124
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 27 (45.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +3.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-11, +27.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (51-30, +30 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (American League) against a team with a poor on base percentage (<=.320), with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts.
(37-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.2%, +28.9 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 7.8, Money Line=-101.9
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 4.6 (Total runs scored = 9.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 29 (69% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5, +12.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (54-34, +17.1 units).
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w-thumbs!^
