STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 4th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 6/4/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #10
•Reds Have Been Terrible Against Vogelsong: The Cincinnati Reds can not be too happy to see the San Francisco Giants send Ryan Vogelsong to the mound. The Reds have won one of their last four against Vogelsong. During that span the Reds have averaged just over five hits per game, including only three in the last two, and less thasn three runs a game. Vogelsong is 3-2 with a 3.45 ERA this season.
•Matsuzaka Flourishing In Rare Starts For Mets: Daisuke Matsuzaka has certainly gone through the past few seasons with a whimper, but he has been a bang for the New York Mets in his rare starts. In Matsuzaka's last five starts the Mets are a perfect 5-0. Those five starts include one this season and four in September of last season. That stretch has seen Matsuzaka give up six runs over the five games and opposing teams have only averaged three hits per game. Matsuzaka has a 2.45 ERA this season during which he has mostly worked from the bullpen.
•Wainwright Loves The Trips To Kauffman Stadium: Adam Wainwright has not had a lot of starts to enjoy in Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, but he certainly has made the most of it. During his last four starts in Kansas City, Wainwright is 4-0. Over those four games Wainwright has only allowed 10 runs, averaging out to 2.5 runs per game. Wainwright also averages five strikeouts in those four trips to face the the Royals. Wainwright has an 8-3 record this year with a 2.32 ERA.
•Rays' Myers Sidelined Two Months: The Tampa Bay Rays lost 2013 American League Rookie of the Year Wil Myers for at least two months because of a wrist injury, the team announced Tuesday. Myers was placed on the disabled list Monday with a sprained wrist that he suffered in a collision with Rays second baseman Desmond Jennings on the final play of Friday night's game against the Boston Red Sox. But further tests indicated that he has a stress fracture.
Myers is expected to be in a cast for five to six weeks before beginning rehab, according to the Rays. The 23-year-old Myers, who came to the Rays from Kansas City in the deal for pitcher James Shields, is batting .227 with five home runs and 25 RBIs in 53 games this season. Last year, Myers batted .293 with 13 homers with 53 RBIs en route to the rookie of the year award. Ben Zobrist and Kevin Kiemaier have split time in right field for the Rays since Myers went down.
•Aiken Remains No. 1 Choice For Astros: Teams have spent the past week setting up their First-Year Player Draft boards, and now they'll start pinning down the signability of their top targets. Possible scenarios are becoming clearer, at least at the top of the first round, though exactly which ones will play out remains uncertain.
The Astros possess the No. 1 overall selection for the third straight year, and in both 2012 and 2013 they didn't reveal their choice until just before the Draft. The consensus top prospects are left-handers Brady Aiken of Cathedral Catholic High in San Diego and Carlos Rodon of North Carolina State, right-hander Tyler Kolek of Shepherd High in Texas, catcher/outfielder Alex Jackson of Rancho Bernardo High in San Diego and shortstop Nick Gordon of Olympia High in Orlando, Fla. The Astros are considering all of them.
The 2014 Draft will take place on June 5-7, beginning with the Draft preview show on MLB.com and MLB Network on Thursday, June 5, at 6 p.m. ET. Live Draft coverage from MLB Network's Studio 42 begins at 7 p.m., with the top 74 picks being streamed on MLB.com and broadcast on MLB Network. MLB.com's exclusive coverage of the second and third days will begin with a live Draft show at 12:30 p.m. ET on June 6.
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Betting Notes - Wednesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Kennedy is 2-0, 1.50 in his last couple starts.
-- Strasburg is 2-2, 3.15 in his last five starts.
-- Vogelsong is 2-0, 2.55 in his last three starts.
-- Matsuzaka won his first '14 start, allowing two runs in six IP.
-- Collmenter is 3-0, 2.21 in his last three starts.
-- Kluber is 4-0, 2.31 in his last five starts.
-- Porcello is 7-1, 3.73 in his last eight starts.
-- Martinez is 1-0, 3.24 in his last three starts.
-- Cosart is 3-1, 4.03 in his last four starts.
-- Minor is 2-1, 2.02 in his last four starts.
-- Wainwright is 3-1, 2.55 in his last five starts. Vargas is 1-0, 1.46 in his last two starts.
-- Beckett is 3-1, 2.49 in his last four starts. Danks has a 1.20 RA in his last couple starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Liriano is 1-2, 5.75 in his last three starts.
-- Burnett is 1-3, 7.20 in his last five starts.
-- Cingrani is 0-3, 6.00 in his last four starts.
-- Jackson is 1-3, 5.24 in his last four starts.
-- Lyles is 0-1, 6.28 in his last three starts.
-- Workman is 0-0, 4.36 in two starts this season.
-- Nuno is 0-2, 6.65 in his last four starts. Chavez is 0-2, 5.56 in his last two.
-- Dickey is 1-1, 5.12 in his last three starts.
-- Norris is 1-3, 4.33 in his last four starts.
-- Richards is 0-2, 7.98 in his last three starts.
-- Iwakuma is 0-2, 6.23 in his last two starts.
-- Koehler is 1-3, 5.56 in his last four starts. Price is 0-1, 5.40 in his last three.
-- Estrada has a 6.11 RA in his last three starts. Nolasco is 1-2, 5.53 in his last five starts.
•Totals
-- Six of last nine Philly games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Giant games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Cub games stayed under total.
-- Last nine Arizona road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Pittsburgh road games.
-- Eight of last eleven Cleveland home games went over; last seven Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Yankees home games.
-- Five of last six Detroit games stayed under total.
-- 11 of last 15 Baltimore games went over the total; last six of last Texas home games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Angel games went over the total.
-- Last three Atlanta home games went over total.
-- Over is 7-0-1 in last eight games at Miller Park.
-- Last six Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven St Louis games went over the total.
-- 11 of last 15 Dodger home games went over total. Eight of last nine White Sox games stayed under.
•Hot Teams
-- Nationals won three of its last four games.
-- Giants won nine of their last 12 games. Cincinnati won their last four games for first time this year.
-- Marlins won the last two nights, allowing one run.
-- Mets won six of their last eight games.
-- Pirates won four of its last five games.
-- Indians won its last eight home games. Boston won seven of their last nine games, but lost last two.
-- Blue Jays won 15 of its last 18 games.
-- Athletics won its last four games, scoring 30 runs.
-- Orioles won its last three road games.
-- Astros won eight of their last ten games.
-- Braves won three of last four games; Seattle won its last four games.
-- Royals won last two nights, scoring 14 runs.
-- Brewers won five of their last seven games.
-- White Sox are 9-6 in their last fifteen games.
•Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost five of their last six games.
-- Cubs lost four of their last six games, but won four of last five at home.
-- Rockies lost six of its last seven games. Arizona is 6-8 in their last fourteen games.
-- Padres are 5-10 in their last fifteen games.
-- Yankees lost 11 of its last 15 home games.
-- Tigers lost ten of its last fourteen games.
-- Rangers are 4-10 in its last fourteen home games.
-- Angels lost six of their last eight games.
-- Rays lost its last ten road games.
-- Twins lost eight of its last twelve games.
-- Cardinals lost six of their last seven games.
-- Dodgers are 9-14 in their last 23 home games.
•Umpires Trends
-- Pitt-SD-- Over is 7-2-1 in West games this season.
-- Phil-Wsh-- Under is 6-3-1 in Hickox games this year.
-- SF-Cin-- Eight of eleven Johnson games went over.
-- NY-Chi-- Six of last eight Tichenor games went over.
-- Az-Col-- Visiting team won nine of ten Dimuro games.
-- Bos-Cle-- Three of last four Wolcott games went over.
-- A's-NY-- Seven of ten Nauert games went over total.
-- Tor-Det-- Underdogs won six of seven Wolf games.
-- Balt-Tex-- Three of last four Reynolds games stayed under.
-- LA-Hst-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Baker games.
-- Sea-Atl-- Underdogs won five of last seven Foster games.
-- TB-Mia-- Four of last five Hamari games stayed under.
-- StL-KC-- Road team won four of last five HGibson games.
-- Mil-Min-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Fletcher games.
-- Chi-LA-- Last five Danley games stayed under the total.
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
•NY METS are 4-23 (-21.9 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY METS 3.6, OPPONENT 5.5.
•LA DODGERS are 29-11 OVER (+17.9 Units) after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 4.4, OPPONENT 4.0.
•TAMPA BAY is 5-19 (-16.5 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.7, OPPONENT 4.7.
•JOHN DANKS is 3-18 (-16 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DANKS 3.2, OPPONENT 5.7.
•MIKE MINOR is 11-3 OVER (+8.5 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINOR 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1.
•EDWIN JACKSON is 3-14 (-14.3 Units) against the run line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was JACKSON 3.7, OPPONENT 6.5.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Any team (COLORADO) - with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (National League) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing, with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.
(41-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.2%, +26.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +100.6
The average score in these games was: Team 5.6, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +2.3)
The situation's record this season is: (10-3, +6.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7, +16.4 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (265-201, +66.5 units).
•Play On - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SAN FRANCISCO) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA=3.70 to 4.20) -National League, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts.
(49-20 since 1997.) (71%, +29.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (38-31)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0, money line price: +101
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 26 (37.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2, -1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5, +4.4 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (BALTIMORE) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -American League, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL.
(83-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.2%, +45.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 9.1, Money Line=-102.2
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 5.6 (Total runs scored = 11.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 69 (53.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-2, +8.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (47-22, +24.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (222-205, +10 units).
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w-thumbs!^
