STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 11TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 6/11/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #11
•Second-Best Money SP Hughes In Action Wednesday: Phil Hughes has rediscovered his game in Minnesota - and bettors are laughing all the way to the bank as a result. Hughes ranks behind only Mark Buehrle as the second-best money pitcher in baseball with a whopping $912 units. The right-hander is sporting a 6-2 record with a 3.46 ERA heading into Wednesday's meeting with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays will counter with rookie (RH) Marcus Stroman (3-0, 5.40 ERA). BetOnline.com currently has the Twins as -165 favorites with a total of nine.
•Tigers-White Sox Game Postponed By Rain: The Detroit Tigers will have to wait at least another day to try to snap out of their recent funk. The second game of the Tigers' scheduled four-game series at the Chicago White Sox was postponed Tuesday night. The tarp stayed on the field all day as intermittent rain fell in the Chicago area. With more wet weather in the forecast for the rest of the night, the game was called about 2 hours before the scheduled start. There was no immediate announcement of a makeup date for the first postponed White Sox home game of the season. Detroit returns to Chicago for a three-game series from Aug. 29-31.
The White Sox used the rainout to skip Andre Rienzo's turn in the rotation. Left-hander John Danks was moved back a day to Wednesday, and Chris Sale will pitch in the series finale on Thursday. Rienzo, who has dropped each of his last three starts, will pitch Sunday against Kansas City. Detroit adjusted its rotation. Drew Smyly, who was slated to start Wednesday's game, was pushed out of the series altogether. Justin Verlander was moved back to Wednesday and Max Scherzer will face Sale on Thursday in a matchup of two of the best pitchers in the AL.
•1B Votto Returns To Reds: The Cincinnati Reds activated first baseman Joey Votto from the disabled list and he was penciled in the lineup to bat third in Tuesday night's game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Votto was out nearly a month with a distal strained left quadriceps. The Reds used backup Brayan Pena and also Todd Frazier and Donald Lutz at first base during Votto's absence. The Reds posted an 11-12 record with Votto out of the lineup since May 16.
The 30-year-old Votto played in two minor rehab games before being activated, going 2-for-6. Before he was injured last month, Votto was batting .257 with six home runs and a .410 on-base percentage in 39 games for the Reds. Right-hander Mat Latos also is expected to soon join Votto on the active roster. Latos has yet to pitch in the big leagues this year because of knee and elbow injuries. On Monday night, he worked 5 2/3 innings for Triple-A Louisville and gave up one run and four hits. The 26-year-old Latos finished last season with a 14-7 record and a 3.17 ERA.
•Pirates Call Up Prized Prospect Polanco: Gregory Polanco is headed to the majors. The Pittsburgh Pirates called up their coveted outfield prospect late Monday night after placing second baseman Neil Walker on the 15-day disabled list. Walker experienced abdominal pain shortly before Pittsburgh's 6-2 win over the Chicago Cubs and underwent an emergency appendectomy. Pirates fans have been waiting eagerly for Polanco to arrive. The 22-year-old from the Dominican Republic was hitting .347 with seven home runs in 62 games for Triple-A Indianapolis. Polanco's arrival will likely move utility player Josh Harrison to second base. Harrison has sparkled in right field since being given the job on a full-time basis last month. Harrison played second on Monday night after Walker was scratched.
•Orioles' Machado Suspended 5 Games: Orioles third baseman Manny Machado has been suspended for five games and fined for intentionally throwing his bat on the field during Sunday's game against Oakland. Machado said Tuesday that he will appeal the suspension. He was in the starting lineup batting second against visiting Boston. It was uncertain when the appeal would be heard. But the Orioles play in New York next week, and appeals are often heard there. Machado let his bat fly in the direction of third base after swinging at a pitch from Oakland's Fernando Abad in the eighth inning. The bat-toss came during a plate appearance in which Abad threw a tight pitch to Machado. After the bat went soaring, both benches emptied. Machado and Abad were ejected.
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Betting Notes - Wednesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Hammel is 2-1, 1.42 in his last four starts.
-- Hamels is 2-1, 2.52 in his last five starts.
-- De Grom has a 3.19 RA in five starts, but no wins.
-- Ryu is 4-0, 3.20 in his last four starts.
-- Teheran is 4-0, 1.23 in his last four starts.
-- Cain is 2-0, 3.06 in his last three starts. Roark is 1-1, 0.60 in his last two.
-- Hughes is 4-0, 1.61 in his last four road starts. Stroman is 2-0, 1.50 in his first two MLB starts.
-- Chen is 1-0, 2.31 in his last two starts. De La Rosa is 1-1, 2.84 in two starts.
-- Danks has a 1.19 RA in his last three starts.
-- Weaver is 4-1, 2.04 in his last five starts. Oakland won last four starts by Milone (2-0, 2.96).
-- Tanaka is 3-0, 1.31 in his last three starts. Young is 2-1, 3.12 in his last three.
-- Wacha is 2-1, 2.25 in his last five starts.
-- Darvish is 2-0, 2.45 in his last three starts.
-- Keuchel is 5-1, 1.55 in his last six starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Cumpton is 1-2, 7.16 in five starts this season.
-- Ross is 1-1, 7.30 in his last three starts.
-- Peralta is 1-3, 5.82 in his last four starts.
-- Cueto is 1-3, 6.00 in his last four starts.
-- Matzek is making MLB debut; he was 5-4, 4.05 in 12 AAA starts.
-- Ventura is 1-4, 5.27 in his last five starts. Bauer is 0-1, 5.40 in his last three.
-- Verlander is 1-3, 7.96 in his last four starts.
-- Bedard is 1-3, 6.30 in his last four starts.
-- Turner is 2-3, 6.11 in his last five starts.
-- McCarthy is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.
•Totals
-- Seven of Cubs' last nine road games went over.
-- Under is 6-0-1 in last seven Dodger road games.
-- Over is 12-1-1 in last fourteen Brewer games.
-- Eight of last ten San Diego games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten games at Coors Field.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Washington road games.
-- Seven of last eight Toronto home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last twelve Baltimore home games went over.
-- Under is 5-3-1 in last nine Kansas City games.
-- Ten of last thirteen White Sox home games stayed under; over is 5-0-1 in last six Detroit games.
-- Eight of last twelve Angel games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-5 in last fifteen Yankees road games.
-- Six of Marlins' last seven road games went over total.
-- Ten of last thirteen Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Arizona home games stayed under.
•Hot Teams
-- Cubs won six of their last eight games.
-- Brewers are 7-1 in game following their last eight losses.
-- Dodgers won eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Nationals won nine of its last eleven games. San Francisco won nine of their last twelve home games, but lost last two.
-- Indians won nine of their last eleven games.
-- White Sox won five of their last seven home games.
-- Angels won nine of their last ten home games.
-- Mariners won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Cardinals won six of their last eight road games.
-- Marlins won eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Astros won eight of last ten away games. Arizona won six of its last eight games overall.
•Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost three of their last four games.
-- Mets lost six of their last seven games.
-- Reds are 3-7 in its last ten home games.
-- Phillies lost eight of their last ten games. San Diego lost six of last eight.
-- Rockies lost 11 of its last 12 games. Atlanta lost four of their last seven.
-- Blue Jays lost three of last four games; they were shut out in all three losses. Minnesota lost 12 of its last 18 games.
-- Royals lost eight of last twelve home games.
-- Red Sox lost six of its last eight games. Baltimore lost four of their last six.
-- Tigers lost eight of its last eleven road games.
-- Athletics lost three of its last four games.
-- Yankees lost six of their last nine games.
-- Rays lost 14 of its last 15 games, was shut out in last three.
-- Rangers lost eight of their last eleven games.
•Umpires Trends
-- Chi-Pitt-- Six of last eight Barry games stayed under.
-- SD-Phil-- Home side won seven of last nine TWelke games.
-- Mil-NY-- Underdogs won five of last six Cederstrom games.
-- LA-Cin-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Buckminster games.
-- Atl-Col-- Four of last five Emmel games went over.
-- Wsh-SF-- Underdogs won five of last six Cuzzi games.
-- Min-Tor-- Underdogs won six of ten Guccione games.
-- Cle-KC-- Favorites won five of last six Blaser games.
-- Bos-Balt-- Underdogs won two of three Randazzo games.
-- Det-Chi-- Six of last nine Diaz games went over total.
-- A's-LA-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Tumpane games.
-- NY-Sea-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Muchinski games.
-- StL-TB-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Wendelstedt games.
-- Mia-Tex-- Four of last five Iassogna games stayed under.
-- Hst-Az-- Last nine Porter games stayed under total.
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
•TAMPA BAY is 2-13 (-16.2 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 20 game span this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.2, OPPONENT 5.5.
•DETROIT is 10-0 OVER (+10.1 Units) versus a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season.
The average score was DETROIT 5.5, OPPONENT 6.7.
•TAMPA BAY is 6-25 (-21.7 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.7, OPPONENT 4.6.
•COLE HAMELS is 1-10 (-13.4 Units) against the money line versus terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAMELS 2.5, OPPONENT 3.7.
•JERED WEAVER is 26-7 UNDER (+18.3 Units) in home games versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was WEAVER 4.7, OPPONENT 2.6.
•TYSON ROSS is 1-8 (-13.6 Units) against the run line as a road underdog when the run line price is -190 to -135 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ROSS 2.7, OPPONENT 5.8.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (NY YANKEES) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start.
(172-55 since 1997.) (75.8%, +79.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -168.6
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.9)
The situation's record this season is: (12-3, +6.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-17, +11.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (89-30, +38.2 units).
•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CHI WHITE SOX) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(62-21 since 1997.) (74.7%, +44.8 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (56-27)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: +106
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +0.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 52 (62.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0, +5.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7, +15.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (33-12, +23.5 units).
•Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (MINNESOTA) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA >=4.50), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games.
(43-16 since 1997.) (72.9%, +26.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 9, Money Line=-101.9
The average score in these games was: Team 6.4, Opponent 4.8 (Total runs scored = 11.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 35 (56.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2, +2 units).
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w-thumbs!^
