4.5-Star Utah +6.5 over LA LAKERS -- In game one of this series, the Jazz shot 37.9% from the field including 4-of-19 from the arc. Their starters were a combined 1-14 from three-point territory and, as a team, they missed eight free throws. The well-coached Utah Jazz is famous for their intensity and determination in this situation. They are a sparkling 10-0 ATS on the road when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss, covering by an average of 10.2 ppg - winning each of the last five straight up. In their last qualifying game, they beat the Hornets 77-66 in New Orleans on April 8th as a 5-point dog.
We also have a league-wide system that has been perfect since the 2003-04 playoffs. It reads, "the League is 11-0 ATS (+9.5 ppg) as a road dog with two or more days of rest after a game in which they shot at least 10 percentage points lower than their season-to-date average from the field and less than 85% from the line. The last qualifying team in this situation was these Utah Jazz, when they beat the Rockets 93-82 as a slight road dog in round 1 of this season's playoffs.
In game one, the Lakers played team defense and team offense. A whopping 24 of their 33 baskets were assisted, with Bryant leading the team with 7. This type of game seems to cause the Lakers, especially Kobe Bryant, to go from a Bryant-dominated offense to a egalitarian offense. This is not the way the Lakers' offense should be run and it causes problems. Indeed, the Lakers are 0-15 ATS with two or more days of rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average, as long as they weren't laying 8+ points. LA is only 1-14 straight up in this situation, with their lone win over the Grizzlies. In their last two, both from this season, they lost by double digits.
Looking at the player-based trends we find that the Lakers are 0-4 ATS DURING THE PLAYOFFS at home after winning the previous matchup at home in which Kobe Bryant was the Lakers' high scorer.
As for the Jazz, they are 8-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) when seeking revenge for a road loss in which Carlos Boozer had more turnovers than assists and 6-0 ATS DURING THE PLAYOFFS with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Deron Williams was not the Jazz's high scorer, covering the spread by an average of 14.6 ppg.
Because the Lakers are undefeated in the playoffs and they looked so good in game one, the series price on this one is currently a big overlay. Currently, the Jazz are something like +475 to win this series. We think they will win tonight, and if they do, this price will drop precipitously. Remember, the Jazz were 37-4 at home during the regular season and if they win tonight, all they have to do is "hold serve" to win this series.
The Jazz are a focused, dedicated and quiet team, whereas the Lakers are in the news with Bryant's MVP award. Utah's play tonight will speak for them. Take the Jazz plus the points tonight and if you want to play them on the moneyline, +475 in the series is better than +265 tonight.
MTi's FORECAST: Utah 98 LA LAKERS 92