STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/28/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Wednesday, 5/28/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
____________________________________________________
NBA Playoff Journal (May 27)
The Pacers did finally hold the Heat to under 50 percent from the floor in Game #4 (Miami shot 46.4%) but it was not NEARLY enough. The Heat were the way more aggressive team and it showed in the fact that Miami took 34 free throws (made 30) while Indiana got to the line just 17 times (made 11). The plus-19 point disparity at the charity stripe was more than enough for the Heat to win comfortably, 102-90.
After playing its best game of the 2014 postseason in Game #1 of this Eastern Conference finals (Pacers won 107-96), Indiana has now dropped three straight to Miami and finds itself in a 1-3 'hole.' The Heat are now just one win away from a FOURTH straight trip to the NBA Finals, a feat accomplished by only two other NBA franchises, the Celtics and Lakers. LBJ had his highest scoring game of the series with 32 points but the real plus for Miami in Game #4 was Chris Bosh, who up until now, had been VERY quiet in this series. Bosh had scored just nine points in each of the first three games (on 12 of 33 shooting, which is 36.4%) but he came up HUGE in Game #4 Monday night, getting 25 points on 7 of 15 shooting on FGs and 8 of 10 on free throws.
Paul George bounced back from a poor Game #3 with 23 points and David West added 20 & 12 but Roy Hibbert did another "disappearing act," playing 22 scoreless minutes (0 of 4 FGs), while grabbing five rebounds. He had averaged 15.7 PPG in the 1st three games of the series but this one was B-A-D! It should also come as no surprise that Lance Stephenson's 'bark' is quite a bit louder than his 'bite,' as the guy who engaged "King James" in a "war of words," scored just nine points on 3 of 7 shooting.
Home teams have struggled his postseason but NOT here in the conference finals. Monday night's Miami win makes home teams 6-1 straight-up and versus the number in the two current series. However, since the start of the postseason, home teams are a modest 44-35 SU (.557), while going a 'money-burning' 33-43-3 ATS (that's 43.4% or minus-14.3 net games).
Monday evenings’ game went over (again) and over players are cashing at almost a 60 percent rate this postseason, with 46 overs and 33 unders, so far (58.2% favoring the over). "Zig-Zaggers" lost with the Pacers and fell to 34-28-3 year to date. However, that remains a profit of 3.2 net games. Tuesday, they'll be on the San Antonio Spurs when they visit the Thunder in Oklahoma City at 9:00 PM EST on TNT.
We all know the storyline Tuesday. Serge Ibaka's surprising return to the court in Game #3, made the Thunder look like a completely different team. His presence allowed Nick Collison to return to the bench (a place he never left), while Scott Brooks also replaced Thabo Sefolosha (0 for 9 on FGs in the 1st two games) with Reggie Jackson, who scored 15 points. Brooks will also likely to continue to make more use of rookie center Steven Adams, who has averaged 8 & 8 the last two games.
The lineup changes allowed Oklahoma City to out-rebound the Spurs 52-36 on Sunday after getting out-rebounded by three in Game #1 and 15 in Game #2. The Thunder also more aggressive and outscored the Spurs 26-15 at the free throw line. As for San Antonio, after shooting 57.5% in Game #1 and 50.0% in Game #2 (while averaging 117.0 PPG), the Spurs connected on only 39.6 percent, while scoring just 97 points. Tony Parker and Danny Green, who combined for 43 points in Game #2, had just 17 in Game #3, shooting a combined 7 of 25 (28.0%).
Do we now have a series? Oklahoma City dominated on Sunday with Ibaka and it sort of reminded us that Oklahoma City swept the Spurs 4-0 this regular season, outscoring San Antonio on average by just about 10 PPG (106.0-to-96.8). We begin to find out the 'answer' at 9:00 PM EST (once again TNT will carry the coverage). The Thunder are favored by 2 1/2 points and the total is 207.
_______________________________________________
StatSystems Sports
Your #1 Source for Winning Information
StatSystemsSports.net takes pride in providing the average player with an edge by building a full in-depth analysis of football, basketball and baseball games. All aspects of games are considered. These include; but are not limited to, injuries, weather, playing surface, team chemistry, individual match-ups, line moves, scheduling, fatigue, statistical analysis, trend analysis, etc. The better prepared you are - The better chance you have of winning, plain and simple.
"Get the most sought after plays in the industry today!" Call us today for a 1 Day VIP Pass - $29.00, 7 Day VIP Pass - $149.00, or get our most popular 30 Day VIP Package for just $499.00. "You'll be Real Glad You Did!"
______________________________________________________
Eastern Conference Finals
#517 MIAMI @ #518 INDIANA
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Heat -2, Total: 184) - The Miami Heat are on the verge of a fourth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals while the Indiana Pacers are one loss away from a long summer of figuring out what went wrong. The Heat will look to close out the Eastern Conference finals when they visit the Pacers for Game #5 on Wednesday night. Indiana took Game #1 of the series but has dropped three straight and never looked like it had a chance as Miami cruised through Game #4 on Monday.
The Pacers have never won a series in which they trailed 3-1 but are not giving up on reversing that history. “Our guys believe in what we do, and we know that,” coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “Once we lost Game #2, we need to win one time (in Miami) and then take care of homecourt. So we had three opportunities to do that. We didn’t do it in Game #3 and #4. I believe they’re strong, and we’ll go back and get Game #5 and then come back and fight Game #6.” LeBron James and the Heat realize that Indiana is not going to go down easy. “It’s going to take a better game than we had (Monday),” James told reporters. “It’s that simple.”
•ABOUT THE HEAT (65-30 SU, 46-47-2 ATS): Miami got a big lift on Monday from center Chris Bosh, who hit his first four shots and ended up with a postseason-high 25 points. “Well, certainly it’s much more how we wanted to play, and the start helped,” coach Eric Spoelstra told reporters. “We came out with a tremendous amount of energy and that was on both ends of the court.” James took care of things in the second half as the Heat cruised. Miami has never let a 3-1 lead slip away in the “Big Three” era and doesn’t intend to let up. “You have to get better every game,” James said. “Their back is against the wall, but we have to go in with that mindset that our back is against the wall, too.”
•ABOUT THE PACERS (65-34 SU, 46-52-1 ATS): Guard Lance Stephenson made headlines when he talked about James showing weakness by responding to trash talk prior to Game #4 but had a difficult time backing up his comments. Stephenson was held to one point in the first three quarters and did not record a field goal until the game was out of hand midway through the fourth. Stephenson wasn’t the only starter struggling, as Roy Hibbert went scoreless and had trouble chasing Bosh around the perimeter in the first half. Both Paul George and David West questioned the officiating after Game #4 but guard George Hill was ready to turn the page. “I think this is when we are at out best, when our backs are against the wall,” Hill told reporters.
•PREGAME NOTES: Miami G Ray Allen (hip) and F Chris Andersen (thigh) are both questionable for Game #5.... Pacers F Luis Scola scored 12 points in Game #4, matching his total from the first three games.... Indiana was outscored by 19 points at the free-throw line in Game #4.... The Heat are 52-36 against the spread (59.0%) versus teams who attempt 18 or more three-point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Pacers are 7-19 versus the spread (26.9%) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season, including 1-8 ATS (0.11%) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%).
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the spread 540 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 429 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 597 times, while INDIANA won 377 times. In 1000 simulated games, 532 games went under the total, while 447 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the first half line 498 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 453 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 536 games went under first half total, while 464 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 46-41 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--INDIANA is 46-43 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--49 of 89 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--INDIANA is 48-40 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--48 of 88 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Indiana.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.
--Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games following a S.U. win.
--Pacers are 2-10 ATS L12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Under is 4-0 in Pacers L4 after allowing 100 points or more LG.
--Under is 4-0 in Pacers L4 when their opponent scored 100 points or more LG.
•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - revenging a loss versus opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG).
(177-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.8%, +78.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -234.2
The average score in these games was: Team 104.4, Opponent 95.7 (Average point differential = +8.7)
The situation's record this season is: (20-8, +1.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (84-23, +31.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (570-203, +47.2 units).
_______________________________
w-thumbs!^
