Had a tee time yesterday so I couldn't respond but did not want to ignore the question. One of the other service play forums has guys who volunteer to tally up the tout plays. I believe they use both free and paid plays but not sure. It does take some time to do. I simply just went through each service play thread toward the end and took the tally and then looked up the result and what the odds were. It was time consuming to do but it seems it is a solid tool to use. I for one do not want to be on the same side of these heavy consensus plays too often. I am atempting to track daily from now on in order to get a larger pool of games.
I will add that the month of May has been slow. The results have been about 50/50 but still showing a small profit because a majority of the plays are +100 or better. Last night was a perfect example, going 4-0.
Also, I would not recommend following this with any other sport unless you can validate that it crosses over, but I suspect you will see similar results like there seemed to be in cbb.
GL with whatever you decide to play.
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by Arizona Bound
I stop in at the RX on occassion, primarily to see what the touts are heavily favoring so I can either go against or jump off a play that there is a heavy consensus on. I decided to back date the tout consensus (started this about 2 weeks ago a little each day) and found that fading the touts heavy consensus can be very profittable. NO explanation as to why it works out but these numbers do not lie:
Fading strong consensus of touts in MLB since day 1 has produced approximately 90 winners and 77 losers (54%). 54% is good but not great. However, peel the onion a little further:
Of the 167 games all but 13 were DOGS. The 13 favs never had a juice over -120 and average less than -110.
The 90W and 77L equate to nearly $2600 profit if betting $100 per game
If you adjust the record based on a standard of -110 juice vs the profit you will see that the record is at 60% equivalent. I will also note that I rounded DOWN on every play so that this is a LOW estimate. Realistically you could have profitted at least 10cents extra on each of the 90 winners which would have netted more like $3500 or 62% equivalent.
Let me qualify this by saying my definition of a heavy consensus is based on
1. At least 2:1 touts on one side
2. Must be at least a 5 tout difference (8-4 is double but not more than 5 so does not qualify, but 8-3 does)
3. No more than 5 touts on the other side even if rule 1 and 2 apply. So 13-6 would not qualify under the 3rd criteria although it does pass the first two.
These were guidelines I attempted to follow. I ignored who the touts were and what their track record was, hell I don't know who more than a few are anyway.
I decided to do this for a couple reasons:
1. Noticed at another site that people were fading a heavy wagerline consensus with success....so why not the touts
2. Seemed everytime there was a lot of "touting" for a play it ended up losing.
3. My own curiousity and thought it might be a tool to help me make a final decision on a play. I can say it has saved me money by being armed with this information.
One last thing, there were a few days where the information was not available (the site I pulled the info did not do the tally and I did not take the time to do one myself), but I can tell you it is VERY accurate and a solid snapshot and a large enough sample to make some conclusions.
Sorry to take up so much space but I thought it was info worth sharing.
Best of luck with you plays RX
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interesting write up arizona.where do you get a consensus of touts though,just add them up? it seems to hold up alot,though I saw alot of touts on the red sox last night .
I have seen a few people add up tout picks on here.I will keep my eye out
cheers
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I will add that the month of May has been slow. The results have been about 50/50 but still showing a small profit because a majority of the plays are +100 or better. Last night was a perfect example, going 4-0.
Also, I would not recommend following this with any other sport unless you can validate that it crosses over, but I suspect you will see similar results like there seemed to be in cbb.
GL with whatever you decide to play.
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by Arizona Bound
I stop in at the RX on occassion, primarily to see what the touts are heavily favoring so I can either go against or jump off a play that there is a heavy consensus on. I decided to back date the tout consensus (started this about 2 weeks ago a little each day) and found that fading the touts heavy consensus can be very profittable. NO explanation as to why it works out but these numbers do not lie:
Fading strong consensus of touts in MLB since day 1 has produced approximately 90 winners and 77 losers (54%). 54% is good but not great. However, peel the onion a little further:
Of the 167 games all but 13 were DOGS. The 13 favs never had a juice over -120 and average less than -110.
The 90W and 77L equate to nearly $2600 profit if betting $100 per game
If you adjust the record based on a standard of -110 juice vs the profit you will see that the record is at 60% equivalent. I will also note that I rounded DOWN on every play so that this is a LOW estimate. Realistically you could have profitted at least 10cents extra on each of the 90 winners which would have netted more like $3500 or 62% equivalent.
Let me qualify this by saying my definition of a heavy consensus is based on
1. At least 2:1 touts on one side
2. Must be at least a 5 tout difference (8-4 is double but not more than 5 so does not qualify, but 8-3 does)
3. No more than 5 touts on the other side even if rule 1 and 2 apply. So 13-6 would not qualify under the 3rd criteria although it does pass the first two.
These were guidelines I attempted to follow. I ignored who the touts were and what their track record was, hell I don't know who more than a few are anyway.
I decided to do this for a couple reasons:
1. Noticed at another site that people were fading a heavy wagerline consensus with success....so why not the touts
2. Seemed everytime there was a lot of "touting" for a play it ended up losing.
3. My own curiousity and thought it might be a tool to help me make a final decision on a play. I can say it has saved me money by being armed with this information.
One last thing, there were a few days where the information was not available (the site I pulled the info did not do the tally and I did not take the time to do one myself), but I can tell you it is VERY accurate and a solid snapshot and a large enough sample to make some conclusions.
Sorry to take up so much space but I thought it was info worth sharing.
Best of luck with you plays RX
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
interesting write up arizona.where do you get a consensus of touts though,just add them up? it seems to hold up alot,though I saw alot of touts on the red sox last night .
I have seen a few people add up tout picks on here.I will keep my eye out
cheers
<!-- / message -->
