Service Plays Wednesday 5/14/14

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Game of the Day: Canadiens at Bruins

Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins (-173, 5)

The Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins have been before - with the last time being three years ago. The Original Six rivals will compete in a Game 7 on Wednesday for the ninth time in history as the Canadiens and host Bruins decide their Eastern Conference second-round series. Carey Price recorded his fourth postseason shutout against Boston on Monday, turning aside all 26 shots he faced as Montreal staved off elimination by cruising to a 4-0 triumph in Game 6.

Reigning Norris Trophy winner P.K. Subban didn't score in that contest, but he did tally with 1:57 to play in the teams' last Game 7 meeting - on April 27, 2011. The then-rookie defenseman tied the contest before Nathan Horton beat Price 5:43 into overtime as the Bruins began a surge that culminated in a Stanley Cup title. "It's going to be great," Subban said of Wednesday's winner-take-all game. "I can't wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can't wait to take that all away from them."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, NBCSN, CBC, RDS

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Bruins as -183 home faves, but that has been bet down to -173. The total has opened at 5.

INJURY REPORT: Canadiens: C Alex Galchenyuk (Questionable, knee). Bruins: D Dennis Seidenberg (Out indefinitely, knee), C Chris Kelly (Out indefinitely, back).

WHAT THE CAPPERS SAY: "This series seemed destined to go the distance from the get-go, and here we are, staring at a winner-take-all matchup on Wednesday night in Beantown. I'm still a believer in momentum when it comes to the NHL Playoffs - just ask the Kings and Ducks. Here, all of the 'mo is in Montreal's corner after a resounding Game 6 victory on home ice. This will undoubtedly be a battle, and it ultimately comes down to goaltending, particularly for Montreal. The Habs need Carey Price to outperform Tuukka Rask - it really is as simple as that. I'm not anticipating much value with the Bruins as contrary to popular belief, home ice hasn't meant a great deal in this matchup over the years." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "The Bruins have played in eight previous Game 7's since 2008 and they are 3-3 at home and 4-4 overall. They key to this series so far has been scoring the first goal, each of the six games has been won by the them that scores first. All the early action is on the Bruins to take Game 7." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ICEGIRL WAR:



ABOUT THE CANADIENS: Thomas Vanek has proven himself to be a thorn in the side of the Bruins - and this series has been no exception. The 30-year-old Austrian scored twice on Monday to double his goal total for the series and has tallied 34 times in 61 career games versus Boston. Max Pacioretty (one goal, three assists in the series) admitted that he was getting outplayed by Boston captain Zdeno Chara in the set's first four contests, but the Connecticut native chimed in with a goal and an assist in Game 6.

ABOUT THE BRUINS: David Krejci led Presidents' Trophy-winning Boston in the regular season with 69 points, but has just one (an assist in Game 2) in the series and three in the postseason. Despite his struggles, the Czech Olympian remains optimistic that he and fellow struggling linemate Milan Lucic (one goal, two assists in the series) will get it in gear. "Yeah, we had some good looks out there," Krejci said. "They didn't go in for us, but we're going to stay positive in here."

TWEET BEAT:



TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Boston.
* Canadiens are 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Boston.
* Bruins are 11-4 in their last 15 Conference Semifinals games.
* Bruins are 1-4 in their last five Wednesday games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 75 percent of wagers are coming in on the Bruins.

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/14/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Wednesday, 5/14/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_______________________________________________

NBA Playoff Journal (May 13)
LeBron James was unhappy he missed a meaningless free throw at the end of last night's game, but not really. "King James" lived up to his moniker, matching a career playoff-high with 49 points, making 16 of 24 FGs and 14 of 19 FTs. It was his 12th, 40-plus playoff game of his career, NINE of which have come on the road. Monday night's effort allowed the Heat to take a commanding 3-1 lead over the Nets in this series, as Miami won 102-96.

The Nets set a franchise record with 15 made three-pointers in Game #3 (25 attempts) but Brooklyn's woes from behind the arc reared its ugly head again Monday evening, as the Nets made only 5 of 22 (27.2%). Garnett was again a non-factor, with eight points and seven rebounds. He's scored a total of just 22 points in the series (5.5 per) and except for his 5 of 6 shooting performance in Brooklyn's Game #3 win, KG is just 5 of 13 (33.3%) from the floor in the other three games.

In Monday's late game, the Trail Blazers finally slowed down San Antonio, avoiding a four-game sweep. The Spurs had trailed for a total of just 33 seconds in the first three matchups but it was a much different story Monday night. In a 'battle' of young point guard versus an old vet, Parker had 'schooled' Lillard in the first three contests but last night, Lillard had 25 points to Parker's 14.

Parker was hounded defensively by the Blazers' Batum, who threw in a 14-14-8 game of his own. San Antonio's bench is its strength while getting scoring outside of their starting-five is a real weakness of the Blazers. San Antonio's reserves had outscored Portland's 140-43 after three games but last night the disparity was not nearly as much, as while the Spurs got 40 bench points, the Blazers countered with 26. Will Barton, who had a total of just 22 points in the first three games, exploded for 17 in Game #4.

Home teams were 1-1 straight-up and versus the number Monday evening, leaving them 35-31 SU (.530) and 26-37-3 ATS, so far. That's a 41.0% win rate ATS or minus-14.7 net games. "Zig-Zaggers" were on a terrible slide heading into Monday night, going 2-8 ATS in the second round and just 3-12 their last 15, overall. However, both the Heat and Blazers won and covered in Game #4, after losing their respective Game #3s. That makes "Zig-Zaggers" 29-22-3 in TY's postseason (plus-4.8 net games).

The Miami/Brooklyn game went over the posted total while San Antonio/Portland stayed well under. However, it's been a banner postseason for "over players" in 2014, as after 66 games, there have been 41 overs and just 25 unders (62.1%).

TNT is back in the 'doubleheader business' again Tuesday night. Washington visits Indiana in the first game (at 7:00 ET), facing elimination after winning Game #1 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse but then losing three in a row (the last two at home). The Pacers are favored by 5 1/2-points (total is 181). The second game is at 10:30 ET, when the Clippers take on the Thunder at Oklahoma City in an all-important Game #5. The Clippers came back from a 16-point 4th-quarter deficit to win Sunday's Game #4 (101-99) and tie the series at two-all. The Thunder are favored by five points and the total is 212 1/2.

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #2

#737 BROOKLYN @ #738 MIAMI
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, TNT - Line: Heat -7, Total: 189) - LeBron James has put Miami in position to close out the Eastern Conference semifinals and he will have a hard act to follow when the Heat host the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday night. James tied his personal playoff career high and set a Miami franchise record with 49 points in Game #4 as the Heat produced a 102-96 victory to take a 3-1 lead. Brooklyn won all four regular-season meetings but needs to come up with a strong effort to force a Game #6 at home.

The Nets had no answer from the outset for James, who was 16-of-24 from the field while matching the 49 points he scored against Orlando in 2009 while playing for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Even with all those points, it was center Chris Bosh who drained the tiebreaking 3-pointer with 57.3 seconds left as James spotted him wide open in the right corner. “He just showed great poise and trust to make the right basketball play,” coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters of James’ decision to pass. “He reads the game as well as anybody that’s played the game.” Brooklyn set a franchise playoff record with 15 3-pointers in its Game #3 win before dropping off to 5-of-22 in Monday’s loss.

•ABOUT THE NETS (49-44 SU, 47-45-1 ATS): Only eight teams have rebounded from a 3-1 deficit to win an NBA playoff series and the task is harder for Brooklyn when you factor in it needs to win three straight against the two-time defending champs. The veteran club knows it is on the verge of elimination but continues to vow the series will tighten up. “We just got to get one game,” forward Paul Pierce told reporters after Game #4. “That’s the mindset. The series is far from over.” Getting a solid performance from Deron Williams would help the cause as the point guard is just 8-of-34 shooting over the past three games after being a solid 7-of-10 for 17 points in Game #1.

•ABOUT THE HEAT (61-29 SU, 43-45-2 ATS): James could have reached 50 points but he split two free throws with 1.1 seconds left. He had 25 points in the first half and 15 more in the third as Brooklyn struggled to defend him. James was rubbed wrong by some trash talking from Pierce after the Nets won Game #3 and now has his focus on ending the series in five games and not making a return to Brooklyn until next season. “Play with a sense of urgency defensively, help one another, communicate, try to get the ball moving offensively from one side to the other and attack,” James told reporters of the Game #5 plan. “If we do those things, and do it with a clear mind but at the same time an aggressive mind, we give ourselves a good chance to win.”

•PREGAME NOTES: SG Dwyane Wade, who is averaging 15.8 points in the series, held the former Heat playoff record of 46 points, set in 2010.... Brooklyn F Mirza Teletovic missed all three of his 3-point attempts in Game #4 after going 10-of-16 over the previous two games.... James has scored 30 or more points in four of Miami’s eight postseason games.... The Nets are 21-7 Over (75.0%) versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.... The Heat are 12-25 against the spread (32.4%) in home games after playing a road game over the last two seasons, including 9-20 ATS (31.0%) in home games after playing a game as a road favorite.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN covered the spread 488 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 487 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 651 times, while BROOKLYN won 325 times. In 1000 simulated games, 659 games went over the total, while 318 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the first half line 502 times, while BROOKLYN covered the first half line 498 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 598 games went over first half total, while 369 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MIAMI is 40-39 against the spread versus BROOKLYN since 1996.
--MIAMI is 53-28 straight up against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--38 of 75 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--BROOKLYN is 40-39 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--46 of 77 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Miami.
--Home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
--Nets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Miami.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games.
--Nets are 1-6 ATS L7 when their opponent scored 100 points or more LG.
--Over is 5-1 in Nets last 6 Wednesday games.

--Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Heat are 4-0 ATS L4 after scoring 100 points or more LG.
--Under is 4-0 in Heat L4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road teams versus the money line (BROOKLYN) - good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) after 42+ games, in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5%), in a game involving two poor rebounding teams (-3 to -5.5 reb/game).
(35-19 since 1996.) (64.8%, +18.8 units. Rating = 1*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +107.9
The average score in these games was: Team 103.9, Opponent 100.7 (Average point differential = +3.2)

The situation's record this season is: (6-7, -1.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-10, -0.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-12, +0.8 units).
_______________________________

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Western Conference Playoffs - Round #2

#739 PORTLAND @ #740 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, TNT - Line: Spurs -8, Total: 208) - The Portland Trail Blazers avoided elimination for at least one more game and will attempt to keep their season alive when they visit the San Antonio Spurs for Game #5 on Wednesday night. The Trail Blazers made some changes to their rotation in Game #4 to catch the Spurs off-guard and dominated the final 17 minutes to pull within 3-1 in the best-of-seven series. Portland is attempting to become the first NBA team in history to recover from a 3-0 deficit and win the series.

San Antonio let it slip away and barely attempted to recover on Monday, sitting Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker for the entire fourth quarter in the 103-92 loss. The Trail Blazers have been missing something off the bench with Mo Williams (groin) down, but Will Barton stepped up with 17 points in 30 minutes in Game #4 while Thomas Robinson added nine points and five rebounds. “We did what we needed to do and we’re looking forward to going to San Antonio and keep competing and keep playing our basketball,” Portland coach Terry Stotts told reporters.

•ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (59-33 SU, 47-45-0 ATS): Portland held a lead for just 33 seconds total in the first three games of the series but took control at the end of the first quarter and held off the Spurs the rest of the way in Game #4. The big run came at the end of the third quarter, when Nicolas Batum converted a four-point play and buried another 3-pointer to spark a 20-7 surge. “We just played with a lot more energy,” guard Damian Lillard told reporters. “Usually we come out and we’re fighting from behind. We’ve had good third quarters every game, but (Monday) we had a lead going into the third, so it was a little bit different.” Batum finished with 14 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists and is embracing the challenge of digging out of the 3-0 hole. “Like we said, why not us? It’s never been done before,” Batum said.

•ABOUT THE SPURS (69-24 SU, 49-44-0 ATS): San Antonio is not worried about the Trail Blazers coming back and is ready to close things out in Game #5. “We have to treat Wednesday’s game like it’s a Game #7,” Parker told reporters. “It’s a big game for us. We worked hard the first three games to be in that position.” Parker outplayed Lillard in each of the first three games but was held to a series lows of 14 points and one assist in Game #4 before sitting out the final 14 minutes-plus. Portland tried out Batum defensively against Parker and kept the speedy guard from getting into the lane at will as he had in the first three games.

•PREGAME NOTES: Lillard is the first player in NBA history to record 25 or more 3-pointers and 50 or more free throws in his first 10 postseason games.... Spurs G Danny Green is 4-of-18 from 3-point range in the series.... Portland is the last team to force a Game #7 after being down 3-0 in a series, falling to the Dallas Mavericks 4-3 in the first round in 2003.... The Spurs are 14-3 versus the spread (82.3%) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.... The Trail Blazers are 5-15 against the spread (25.0%) versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting less than 21 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 545 times, while PORTLAND covered the spread 441 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 737 times, while PORTLAND won 241 times. In 1000 simulated games, 550 games went under the total, while 431 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 530 times, while PORTLAND covered the first half line 470 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 544 games went under first half total, while 424 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 38-36 against the spread versus PORTLAND since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 45-30 straight up against PORTLAND since 1996.
--37 of 74 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 39-35 versus the first half line when playing against PORTLAND since 1996.
--41 of 74 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
--Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in San Antonio.

--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Trail Blazers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 games following a S.U. win.

--Spurs are 1-7 ATS L8 after allowing 100 points or more LG.
--Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
--Over is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 home games.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Any team versus the money line (PORTLAND) - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season against opponent after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less, off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite.
(35-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.4%, +29.5 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +101.6
The average score in these games was: Team 104.5, Opponent 96 (Average point differential = +8.5)

The situation's record this season is: (7-1, +4.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-3, +26.1 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (98-54, -4 units).
_______________________________

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
WEDNESDAY, MAY 14th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Wednesday, 5/14/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #7
Every season, a collection of unheralded pitchers return the kind of value usually reserved for the very best hurlers in the majors. In some cases, these under-the-radar finds are able to maintain their hot streak throughout the season. Other times, the early-season good times give way to a more difficult schedule as hitters make adjustments. Here are four no-name pitchers with the highest money values heading into the second half of May (records are team marks versus moneyline):

•Andre Rienzo, Chicago White Sox (4-0, 4.56 ERA, $548)
Rienzo has been the most fortunate pitcher on this list. The 25-year-old Brazil native hasn't necessarily pitched all that well, surrendering at least three runs in each of his four starts while failing to go longer than 6 1/3 innings in any of them. But the White Sox bats have provided Rienzo with overwhelming support, averaging 6.5 runs in those outings to help him to a 3-0 record despite an inflated ERA. Chicago was an underdog in all of Rienzo's first four starts.

•Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels (6-1, 4.14 ERA, $509)
Like Rienzo, Skaggs has had his share of rough outings - allowing four or more runs in three of his last six starts. But the 22-year-old has actually been far more effective, limiting opponents to a .228 average while surrendering just four home runs in 45 2/3 innings and posting a solid 1.12 WHIP. The Angels have given him plenty of run support so far, scoring at least five runs in all but one of his starts. Skaggs has a respectable 3-1 mark against the moneyline as a dog.

•Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics (7-1, 2.28 ERA, $504)
Kazmir is the most recognizable name on the list, but may also be the unlikeliest. His career thought to be over after wildness and prolonged struggles bounced him from the majors, Kazmir has stormed back to relevance. The 30-year-old left-hander has surrendered fewer than two runs in four of his eight starts while limiting opponents to just two home runs in 51 1/3 innings. Oakland has given him plenty of offense, averaging more than six runs per game in his outings.

•Jordan Lyles, Colorado Rockies (6-2, 2.66 ERA, $440)
Lyles has been an underdog in five of his eight starts, but has risen to the challenge as the top pitcher for the surprisingly potent Rockies. The 23-year-old right-hander has registered five consecutive quality starts - three of those coming on the road - and has held foes to a .223 average while getting off to a 5-0 start. He has also benefited from the league's most potent offense, getting at least five runs of support in five of eight outings. He's a perfect 4-0 in those starts.

Betting Notes - Wednesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Cueto is 3-2, 1.43 in eight starts this year. Kennedy is 1-1, 2.16 in his last four starts.
-- Peralta is 4-2, 2.43 in his last six starts.
-- Hammel is 2-0, 2.00 in his last four starts.
-- Teheran is 1-1, 1.15 in his last five starts. Bumgarner is 2-0, 1.29 in his last couple outings.

-- Verlander is 4-1, 3.38 in his last six starts.
-- Kluber is 1-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts. McGowan is 1-0, 2.25 in his last two starts.
-- Milone is 1-0, 1.93 in two home starts. White Sox are 4-0 when Rienzo starts (3-0, 5.09) scoring 26 runs.
-- Feldman is 2-1, 2.20 in five starts this season.

-- Richards is 1-0, 2.77 in his last four starts. Burnett is 2-0, 1.53 in three home starts.
-- Tanaka is 4-0, 2.31 in his last five starts.
-- Vargas is 3-1, 3.50 in his last seven starts.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Liriano is 0-3, 5.89 in his last seven starts, but Pirate bullpen won last four.
-- Wacha is 0-3, 4.13 in his last five starts.
-- Maurer is 1-1, 8.44 in his last three starts.
-- McCarthy is 1-6, 6.32 in his last seven starts. Fister allowed seven runs in 4.1 IP in his first '14 start.
-- Maholm is 1-2, 4.94 in his last four starts. DeSclafani is making MLB debut; he is 3-4, 4.19 in eight AA starts.

-- Gausman is making his first '14 start; he was 3-5, 5.68 in 20 MLB games LY (five starts).
-- Doubront is 0-1, 7.71 in his last three starts. Correia is 1-3, 8.10 in his last four outings.
-- Tepesch is making first '14 start; he was 4-6, 4.84 in 17 MLB starts LY. He is 6-1, 1.58 in seven AAA starts this year.
-- Romero allowed no runs in 4.2 innings in his only '13 start; he is 2-4, 5.02 in seven AAA starts this year. This is his second MLB appearance.

-- Montero is making MLB debut; he was 4-1, 3.67 in eight AAA starts.
-- Chacin is 0-1, 4.91 in two starts this season.

•Totals
-- Six of last seven Cincinnati games stayed under.
-- Over is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Milwaukee games.
-- Over is 10-3-1 in last fourteen St Louis home games.
-- Over is 8-4-1 in Arizona's last thirteen home games.
-- 14 of last 20 Dodger games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-1-1 in last eleven Atlanta games.

-- Over is 4-1-2 in last seven Cleveland road games.
-- Four of last five Minnesota home games stayed under.
-- Under is 12-5-1 in Baltimore's home games.
-- Seven of last nine Houston games stayed under.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in Oakland's last eight games.
-- Five of last seven Seattle games stayed under total.

-- Mets' last four games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Angel road games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Kansas City home games went over.

•Hot Teams
-- Padres won their last four games.
-- Brewers won its last three games.
-- Diamondbacks won five of its last seven games.
-- Dodgers won three of their last four games.
-- Giants won 14 of their last 19 games.

-- Indians won five of its last seven games. Toronto won seven of last ten.
-- Angels won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Tigers won their last seven road games.
-- Red Sox won six of their last nine games.
-- Athletics won its last six games, allowing eight runs.
-- Mariners won eight of their last twelve games.

-- Mets won their last seven games against Bronx.

•Cold Teams
-- Reds lost four of its last six games.
-- Pirates lost ten of its last twelve road games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last ten games. St Louis is 6-8 in its last 14 games.
-- Nationals lost six of its last seven road games.
-- Mariners lost 15 of its 18 road games.
-- Braves lost five of their last six away games.

-- Twins is 6-8 in its last fourteen games.
-- Orioles lost its last three games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last ten games. Texas lost 11 of last 15.
-- White Sox lost four of their last five games.
-- Rays lost six of its last eight games.

-- Phillies lost six of their last eight games.
-- Yankees lost six of its last seven home games.
-- Royals lost four of its last five home games. Colorado lost four of their last five games overall.

•Umpires Trends
-- Chi-StL-- Favorites won six of eight Little games.
-- Wsh-Az-- Favorites won seven of eight Miller games.
-- SD-Cin-- Five of six Johnson games went over total.
-- Pitt-Mil-- All six Iassogna games went over total.
-- Mia-LA-- Last five Barry games stayed under total.
-- Atl-SF-- Over is 4-1-1 in LBarrett games this year.

-- Det-Balt-- Four of last five Timmons games stayed under.
-- Tex-Hst-- Three of last four Hoberg games stayed under.
-- Chi-A's-- Last five Gonzalez games went over the total.
-- TB-Sea-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Danley games.
-- Cle-Tor-- Underdogs won five of last six Meals games.
-- Bos-Min-- Five of six Cooper games went over the total.

-- LA-Phil-- Last four Blaser games stayed under the total.
-- Col-KC-- Home team won six of seven Bellino games.
-- NY-NY-- Visitors won six of seven Dimuro games.

Diamond Trends - Wednesday
•COLORADO is 3-19 (-20.9 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 3.4, OPPONENT 5.9.

•ARIZONA is 12-3 OVER (+8.9 Units) versus a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 4.2, OPPONENT 5.1.

•COLORADO is 0-15 (-18.5 Units) against the run line versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 3.5, OPPONENT 6.9.

•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 4-14 (-21.3 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 3.7, OPPONENT 4.7.

•MADISON BUMGARNER is 20-6 UNDER (+13.0 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BUMGARNER 3.1, OPPONENT 2.6.

•JASON HAMMEL is 13-2 (+12.7 Units) against the run line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HAMMEL 4.9, OPPONENT 3.2.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (HOUSTON) - with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts, versus an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season.
(35-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.4%, +26.3 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -108.1
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.8)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2, +6.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (125-87, +30.9 units).

•Play On - Any team against a 1.5 run line (LA ANGELS) – an average American League offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good National League starter (ERA<=3.70), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.
(37-12 since 1997.) (75.5%, +29.9 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (31-18)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2, money line price: +113
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 3.8 (Average run differential = +1.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 26 (53.1% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4, +10.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5, +11.2 units).

•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 or less (SAN DIEGO) - horrible offensive team - scoring <=3.3 runs/game on the season (National League) against opponent terrible offensive team - scoring <=3.8 runs/game on the season (NL).
(53-17 since 1997.) (75.7%, +36.3 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 6.7, Money Line=+100.6
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 4.3 (Total runs scored = 8.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 39 (52.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (8-2, +6.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-12, +29.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (50-14, +36.3 units).
___________________________________________

 

[cracy]

StatSystemsSports.net
Inside the Paint- Wednesday

NBA Playoffs Betting News & Notes
•Wizards Blitz Pacers Behind Gortat, Force Game Six: Two words from John Wall said it all as he buried his third three-pointer and held his pose in the third quarter of Game #5 vs. the Indiana Pacers: "I'm back." After facing down questions about passing up an open shot that could've saved the Wizards in Game #4, Wall had answers by producing his best postseason performance with 27 points on 11-for-20 shooting, five rebounds and five assists in their second win in three tries at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Tuesday.

Marcin Gortat, who had been invisible and only scored six points combined in the previous two games, was unstoppable with 31 points on 13-for-15 shooting and a game-high 16 rebounds. He manhandled his counterpart Roy Hibbert who was a non-factor with four points on 2-for-7 shooting and just two rebounds. Gortat, who had been invisible in the previous two games with just six points total, had a double-double at halftime with 17 points and 11 rebounds.

Wall followed suit in his most aggressive play in the second half to put the game away. Despite having two of the Wizards' six first-quarter turnovers, Wall not only pushed the pace but didn't pass up open shots. He scored 17 of his points in the second half by making 6 of 8 shots, including 3 of 4 threes. Bradley Beal had 18 points, eight rebounds and four assists. Trevor Ariza had 10 points. Nene had his third consecutive bad outing with just four points and was limited by early foul trouble.

•Heat Still Unbeaten In Miami In Playoffs: The Miami Heat will be looking to close out the Brooklyn Nets in Game 5 Wednesday. The Brooklyn Nets will have an uphill battle, as the Heat are a perfect 4-0 (3-1 against the spread) at the American Airlines Arena during the playoffs. The Heat are 7-point home favorites to end the Nets championships hope.

•Trail Blazers Have Uphill Battle In San Antonio: The Portland Trail Blazers have their back against the wall. Down 3-1 to the San Antonio Spurs and trying to stave-off elimination in the lonestar state. The Spurs have a stellar 5-1 record (3-3 against the spread) in the AT&T Center during the playoffs. Portland has only won once in San Antonio this season, including dropping both playoff games. The Trail Blazers are 7.5-point road dogs to keep their hopes alive Wednesday.

Betting Notes - Wednesday
•Lebron James went off for 49 points Monday to put Heat up 3-1; Nets are still 5-3 versus Miami this season, 2-2 at American Airlines Arena- they made 15-25 from arc in its Game #3 win, are 25-70 in other three games. Miami is 7-1 in playoffs, 3-1 versus spread at home- four of their last five games went over total. Nets are 5-6 in playoffs, 2-3-1 versus spread on road- they held Heat to 46% in its only win- Miami shot 49%+ in its three series wins.

•Spurs led first three games of series 65-39/70-51/60-40 at half; Portland sucked it up and avoided sweep with Game #4 win at home. Aldridge hit 11-21 shots last game, after going 15-46 from floor previous two games; Blazers are -23 in turnovers so far in series. Spurs won last four of last five meetings with Portland overall, winning first two matchups of this series by 24-17 points at AT&T Center. Overall, San Antonio is 22-24 versus spread at home.

--Over is 41-27 in playoffs this season, 10-8 in this round.
--Favorites are 23-45 in playoffs this season, 7-11 in this round.

Hoop Trends - Wednesday
•PORTLAND is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals this season.
The average score was PORTLAND 103.0, OPPONENT 99.2.

•BROOKLYN is 21-7 OVER (+13.3 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was BROOKLYN 99.2, OPPONENT 100.7.

•PORTLAND is 4-17 (-14.7 Units) against the 1rst half line versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 44.4, OPPONENT 53.2.

•SAN ANTONIO is 17-2 UNDER (+14.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 52.6, OPPONENT 43.1.

•TERRY STOTTS is 15-30 (-18.0 Units) against the 1rst half line against Southwest division opponents as the coach of PORTLAND.
The average score was STOTTS 49.0, OPPONENT 53.4.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Road teams versus the 1rst half line (PORTLAND) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=79%) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games.
(61-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +33.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.7, Opponent 51.1 (Average first half point differential = +0.6)

The situation's record this season is: (7-8).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-9).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (124-105).
___________________________________________

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BEN BURNS
91-31 RUN NHL SIDES (75%)

8* Boston -170 over Montreal

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

Cleveland at Toronto

The Indians look to bounce back from yesterday's 5-4 loss to Toronto as they face a Blue Jays team that is 0-4 in Dustin McGowan's last 4 home starts. Cleveland is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+120). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 14 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Washington at Arizona (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Fister) 15.644; Arizona (McCarthy) 13.999 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-105); Over

Game 903-904: Atlanta at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 14.561; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.908 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120); Under

Game 905-906: San Diego at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 14.719; Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.322 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 7 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-170); Under

Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 15.721; Milwaukee (Peralta) 14.877 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over

Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Hammel) 13.747; St. Louis (Wacha) 15.900 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 6 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Under

Game 911-912: Miami at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (DeSclafani) 15.602; LA Dodgers (Maholm) 14.721 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 913-914: Detroit at Baltimore (12:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.227; Baltimore (Gausman) 16.120 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 915-916: Chicago White Sox at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Rienzo) 13.941; Oakland (Milone) 16.688 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Oakland (-200); 9 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-200); Under

Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at Seattle (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.949; Seattle (Maurer) 14.062 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under

Game 919-920: Cleveland at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 15.767; Toronto (McGowan) 14.899 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 9 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100); Over

Game 921-922: Boston at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Doubront) 14.743; Minnesota (Correia) 15.622 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 923-924: Texas at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Tepesch) 15.402; Houston (Feldman) 14.311 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Texas (-110); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110); Over

Game 925-926: LA Angels at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 14.383; Philadelphia (Burnett) 15.899 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Under

Game 927-928 Colorado at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 15.513; Kansas City (Vargas) 14.622 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 8 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+110); Over

Game 929-930: NY Mets at NY Yankees (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Tanaka) 16.788; NY Mets (Montero) 15.233 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-170); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NBA Picks

Portland at San Antonio

The Spurs look to close out the series tonight at home where the Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. San Antonio is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 14 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 737-738: Brooklyn at Miami (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 118.375; Miami 129.936 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 11 1/2; 184 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7; 188 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7); Under

Game 739-740: Portland at San Antonio (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 120.033; San Antonio 131.167 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 11; 212 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 208 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7 1/2); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NHL Picks

Anaheim at Los Angeles

The Ducks look to close out the series and come into tonight's contest with a 5-0 record in their last 5 games in Los Angeles. Anaheim is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+120). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 14 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 75-76: Montreal at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.607; Boston 12.996 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-175); 5 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-175); Under

Game 77-78: Anaheim at Los Angeles (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.882; Los Angeles 11.918 Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-140); 5 Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+120); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Wednesday

Brewers -125

Rockies +110

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play WED Spurs -7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nets at Heat: What bettors need to know

Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat (-7, 188.5)

LeBron James has put Miami in position to close out the Eastern Conference semifinals and he will have a hard act to follow when the Heat host the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday. James tied his personal playoff career high and set a Miami franchise record with 49 points in Game 4 as the Heat produced a 102-96 victory to take a 3-1 lead. Brooklyn won all four regular-season meetings but needs to come up with a strong effort to force a Game 6 at home.

The Nets had no answer from the outset for James, who was 16-of-24 from the field while matching the 49 points he scored against Orlando in 2009 while playing for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Even with all those points, it was center Chris Bosh who drained the tiebreaking 3-pointer with 57.3 seconds left as James spotted him wide open in the right corner. “He just showed great poise and trust to make the right basketball play,” coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters of James’ decision to pass. “He reads the game as well as anybody that’s played the game.” Brooklyn set a franchise playoff record with 15 3-pointers in its Game 3 win before dropping off to 5-of-22 in Monday’s loss.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE NETS: Only eight teams have rebounded from a 3-1 deficit to win an NBA playoff series and the task is harder for Brooklyn when you factor in it needs to win three straight against the two-time defending champs. The veteran club knows it is on the verge of elimination but continues to vow the series will tighten up. “We just got to get one game,” forward Paul Pierce told reporters after Game 4. “That’s the mindset. The series is far from over.” Getting a solid performance from Deron Williams would help the cause as the point guard is just 8-of-34 shooting over the past three games after being a solid 7-of-10 for 17 points in Game 1.

ABOUT THE HEAT: James could have reached 50 points but he split two free throws with 1.1 seconds left. He had 25 points in the first half and 15 more in the third as Brooklyn struggled to defend him. James was rubbed wrong by some trash talking from Pierce after the Nets won Game 3 and now has his focus on ending the series in five games and not making a return to Brooklyn until next season. “Play with a sense of urgency defensively, help one another, communicate, try to get the ball moving offensively from one side to the other and attack,” James told reporters of the Game 5 plan. “If we do those things, and do it with a clear mind but at the same time an aggressive mind, we give ourselves a good chance to win.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Miami.
* Home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Nets last five overall.
* Heat are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 Wednesday games.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. SG Dwyane Wade, who is averaging 15.8 points in the series, held the former Heat playoff record of 46 points, set in 2010.

2. Brooklyn F Mirza Teletovic missed all three of his 3-point attempts in Game 4 after going 10-of-16 over the previous two games.

3. James has scored 30 or more points in four of Miami’s eight postseason games.

 

[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
Colorado Rockies +113 over Kansas City Royals
(System Record: 26-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 26-17

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Los Angeles Kings -140 over Anaheim Ducks
(Playoff Record: system 17-1: overall 17-8, won last 3 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 108-82-2

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Brooklyn Nets +7 over Miami Heat
(Playoff Record: 11-10-3, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 89-95-8

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Cruzeiro + San Lorenzo UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Conmebol
(System Record: 570-21, won last 5 games)
Overall Record: 570-481-84

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

J.R. Stevens SMOOTH44

Today’s Top Picks
(MLB) Chi White Sox +175
(MLB) San Diego +155
(MLB) Pittsburgh +110

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ANTHONY MICHAEL (Play of the Day)

#740 San Antonio Spurs -8 (9:35 edt) TNT

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

NBA | PORTLAND at SAN ANTONIO
Play Under – All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
37-13 over the last 5 seasons. ( 74.0% | 22.7 units )
11-8 this year. ( 57.9% | 2.2 units )

NBA | PORTLAND at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against – Road teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) averaging 53 or more rebounds/game on the season, after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more
68-40 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.0% | 27.4 units )
19-18 this year. ( 51.4% | -1.2 units )

NBA | PORTLAND at SAN ANTONIO
Play On – Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (PORTLAND) excellent free throw shooting team (>=79%) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO’s) after 42+ games
60-27 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.0% | 30.3 units )
3-9 this year. ( 25.0% | -6.9 units )