THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(5) Washington (44-42, 47-39 ATS) at (4) Cleveland (48-38, 40-46 ATS)
The Cavaliers look to end this best-of-7 series in five games ‘ and eliminate the Wizards from the playoffs for the third straight season ‘ when the two teams return to Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland.
Cleveland hung on for a 100-97 victory Sunday, cashing as a five-point underdog to bounce back from Thursday’s 108-72 Game 3 thrashing ‘ the worst playoff loss in team history. LeBron James contributed 34 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists in the win, with his final assist being converted into a game-winning three-pointer by Delonte West. Despite its 3-1 lead in this series, Cleveland is still a middling 8-8 SU in its last 16 games overall, going 6-10 ATS in that span.
Washington is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five overall and is just 1-8 in its last nine playoff games (2-7 ATS) ‘ all against the Cavaliers, who have knocked out the Wizards in each of the last two postseasons. This season, the home team is on a 7-1 SU run in this rivalry (5-3 ATS), and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes (playoffs included).
The Wizards are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played on two days’ rest, but the team’s pointspread trends all spiral downward from there, including 0-4 on the road, 0-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 0-4 as a playoff ‘dog (all against Cleveland), 2-6 after a SU loss, 3-8 on Wednesday and 2-5 catching less than five points.
The Cavaliers are 3-6 ATS in their last nine against teams with a winning record and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 after a spread-cover, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 5-1 in first-round playoff games ‘ all against Washington ‘ 4-0 as a playoff chalk and 5-0 ATS as a playoff favorite of less than five points.
For Washington, the over is on streaks of 9-6 overall, 23-9 against the Eastern Conference and 7-4 in the playoffs (again, all against Cleveland), but the under is 4-1 in its last five on the highway and 4-1 in its last five as a playoff pup of less than five points. For Cleveland, the under is on tears of 8-2 overall, 5-1 as a favorite, 4-1 after a SU win, 12-3 as a home chalk and 16-5 at home. But the over is 22-10-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 33 when laying less than five points.
Finally, in this rivalry, the over-under has alternated in the last seven games ‘ with the total clearing the 190-point posted price in Game 4 ‘ and the under is 15-7 in the last 22 clashes in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
( Atlanta (39-47, 39-46-1 ATS) at (1) Boston (68-18, 54-30-2 ATS)
Having suffered stunning upset losses in Games 3 and 4 in Atlanta, the Celtics suddenly find themselves in must-win mode as they return to TD Banknorth Garden for Game 5 against the spunky Hawks.
Boston carried a 10-point lead into the fourth quarter Monday night, but resilient Atlanta outscored the Celts 32-17 in the final frame to post a 97-92 win as a nine-point home underdog. Joe Johnson went off for 20 of his 35 points in the fourth to help seal the upset, which followed a 102-93 home victory as an eight-point ‘dog in Game 3. Prior to the two wins, Atlanta was on an 0-5 SU and ATS skid, and the Hawks are still just 4-7 SU and ATS in their last 11 starts.
Boston, meanwhile, had its six-game SU and ATS winning streak halted with the two setbacks. However, the Celtics are still 5-2 against Atlanta this year (4-3 ATS), with all five wins coming by double digits, including 23- and 19-point blowouts in Games 1 and 2, respectively, both as a 15-point chalk.
The home team in this series is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, the underdog is 9-5 ATS in the last 14 clashes and Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five home starts against Atlanta.
Their current two-game winning streak notwithstanding, the Hawks are still on ATS slides of 1-4 on the road, 11-24 on the highway against teams with a winning home record, 3-7 after a SU win and 2-6 after a spread-cover. Also, the straight-up winner has cashed in each of the Hawks’ last 12 games overall.
The Celtics are still 13-3 SU (12-4 ATS) in their last 16 games going back to the regular season, and they carry further positive ATS trends of 21-7 overall, 8-0 overall at the Garden, 6-0 at home against teams with a losing road mark, 7-1 on one day of rest, 13-6 after a SU loss and 41-19-2 against teams with a losing overall record.
After the first two contests in this series in Boston stayed under the total, the over was the paly in both games in Atlanta’ with Saturday’s contest narrowly clearing the 188-point posted price ‘ and the over for Atlanta is now on runs of 8-0 on one day of rest, 10-3 after a SU win and 11-5 overall. On the flip side, the under for Boston is on streaks of 5-1 at home, 8-1 at home versus teams with a losing road record, 9-3 in first-round playoff games and 12-5 against the East. Finally, the four head-to-head meetings in Boston this year have all stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
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