Service Plays Wednesday 4/23/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Wednesday's major-league games:

Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics (155, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray is 5-1 with a 1.99 ERA in nine career home starts.

Hot batting stat: Oakland outfielder Coco Crisp is 5-for-13 with a pair of doubles lifetime versus Rangers lefty Martin Perez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing from left to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: Texas is 9-1 in Perez's last 10 starts against the American League West.

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (-164, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Mariners right-hander Chris Young lasted just three innings in his previous start, allowing four runs on seven hits.

Hot batting stat: Astros outfielder Dexter Fowler is 3-for-7 with a pair of walks in his career against Young.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with a 77 percent chance of showers and wind blowing out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The home team is 17-4 in umpire Jeff Nelson's last 21 games behind home plate involving the Astros.

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (102, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Blue Jays right-hander Dustin McGowan has allowed opponents to hit .333 through three starts.

Hot batting stat: Toronto outfielder Jose Bautista is 6-for-20 with two homers against Orioles starter Chris Tillman.

Weather: N/A

Key betting note: Baltimore is 22-8 in Tillman's past 30 starts versus teams with winning records.

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians (-135, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Indians right-hander Justin Masterson struck out nine over 6 1/3 solid innings in his last start

Hot batting stat: Royals outfielder Alex Gordon is batting .353 with a homer and five RBIs in 34 at-bats versus Masterson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with sunny skies and wind blowing in from left-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Cleveland is 8-3 in Masterson's last 11 Wednesday starts.

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers (-175, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Tigers left-hander Drew Smyly was tagged for four runs on six hits over three innings last time out.

Hot batting stat: Members of the Chicago roster are 15-for-50 with three home runs against Smyly.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-40s under sunny skies with wind blowing from left to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 5-1 in Smyly's previous six starts.

Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays (-177, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Twins right-hander Mike Pelfrey has allowed 14 runs over 14 2/3 innings so far in 2014.

Hot/ batting stat: Rays third baseman Evan Longoria is 3-for-6 with a home run in his career versus Pelfrey.

Weather: N/A

Key betting note: Under is 6-1-2 in Pelfrey's previous nine road starts.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-118, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Boston is 7-1 in starter John Lackey's previous eight appearances against teams with winning records.

Cold batting stat: Yankees outfielder Alfonso Soriano is a .195 hitter with nine strikeouts in 41 at-bats against Lackey.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with mostly cloudy skies and wind blowing from left to right field at 16 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 7-1-1 in Lackey's last nine starts.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 3:30 p.m. Tuesday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Wednesday's National League games:

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves (-162, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Braves right-hander Aaron Harang has allowed just two runs on nine hits through 25 2/3 innings this season.

Hot batting stat: Marlins first baseman Garrett Jones is 6-for-13 with a home run lifetime against Harang.

Weather: Sunny skies are expected with temperatures in the high-60s and wind blowing in from left-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 7-0-1 in Miami starter Nate Eovaldi's last eight outings on four days rest.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs (-105, OFF)

Hot pitching stat: Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija has limited opponents to four earned runs in his first four starts.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Chicago roster are hitting a combined .213 in 47 at-bats against Arizona starter Wade Miley.

Weather: Temperatures will hover around 40 degrees with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing in from right-center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Diamondbacks are 10-2 the last 12 times Miley has pitched the third game of a series.

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (108, 10)

Cold pitching stat: San Francisco has lost right-hander Matt Cain's last seven starts against division foes.

Hot batting stat: Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval is 5-for-12 with a pair of homers against Rockies right-hander Tyler Chatwood.

Weather: Cloudy skies are forecasted with temperatures in the low-60s and wind blowing from left to right field at 14 mph.

Key betting note: Over is 10-2-2 in the Giants' last 14 Wednesday games.

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (-120, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Pirates right-hander Charlie Morton has surrendered 14 runs over 19 innings in his previous three starts.

Hot batting stat: Reds outfielder Jay Bruce is 7-for-21 with two home runs in his career against Morton.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with clear skies and wind blowing out to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The home team is 9-0 in umpire Lance Barksdale's last nine games behind home plate involving Pittsburgh.

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets (130, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Cardinals righty Michael Wacha has limited opponents to a .206 average through four starts.

Hot batting stat: Members of the St. Louis roster are batting a collective .357 in 56 at-bats against Mets starter Jonathon Niese.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with clear skies and winds gusting in from left field at 17 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 9-1-1 in Niese's previous 11 home starts.

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (-140, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Brewers right-hander Kyle Lohse hasn't allowed a home run over his last three starts, a span of 20 innings.

Cold batting stat: Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera is 1-for-12 with six strikeouts against Lohse.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with a 19 percent chance of rain and wind blowing in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 10-1 in San Diego starter Tyson Ross' last 11 starts versus teams with winning records.

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers (-185, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke has surrendered just six earned runs over his first 22 1/3 innings.

Cold batting stat: Phillies outfielder Marlon Byrd has just three hits in 20 career at-bats versus Greinke.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under clear skies.

Key betting note: Under is 6-1-1 in Philadelphia lefty Cole Hamels' last eight starts against teams with winning records.

Interleague

Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals (-125, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez is 7-2 with a 2.54 ERA in 10 career starts against the Angels.

Hot/Cold batting stat: Angels outfielder Mike Trout is 0-for-9 with six strikeouts lifetime against Gonzalez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with sunny skies and wind blowing from left to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: Los Angeles is 8-2 in right-hander Jered Weaver's last 10 interleague starts.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 4:00 p.m. ET Tuesday.

 

[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
Los Angeles Angels +109 over Washington Nats
(System Record: 13-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 13-10

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -146 over St. Louis
(Playoff Record: 2-2, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 93-77-2

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Dallas Mavericks +8 over San Antonio
(Playoff Record: 1-2, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 79-89-5

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Toluca + Cruz Azul UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Concacaf
(System Record: 559-20, won last 5 games)
Overall Record: 559-475-81

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben BURNS

HOCKEY

blackhawks

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JACK JONES

20* Blazers/Rockets UNDER 215

This total is a complete overreaction from Game 1. That contest was much more lower-scoring than the final score would indicate. It was tied 106-106 at the end of regulation for a combined 212 points, which would have been UNDER the 215.5-point total.

Instead, the combined for another 30 in overtime in a 122-120 Portland victory. They needed 60 combined points in the fourth quarter just to get to 212 at the end of regulation. The Blazers used the hack-a-Howard strategy, which got them back in the game.

While that is concerning heading into Game 2, I'm not that worried about it because head coach Kevin McHale took Howard out after a couple of misses, then put him back in with under two minutes to go. That way, the Blazers could not intentionally foul him. I look for McHale to take him out even sooner if they try the same thing again.

This is the playoffs, and while both teams play at a fast pace normally, things slow down a little more in the postseason. The defensive intensity gets kicked up a notch, which makes it easy to pick apart these high point totals by backing the UNDER. I liked what I saw from both teams defensively in Game 1, and I look for that intensity to be even more extreme in this all-important Game 2.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 33-7 (82.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in in Game 2 Wednesday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Harang is 3-1, 0.70 in four starts this season.
-- Samardzija has a 1.93 RA in four starts, but no wins. Miley is 1-0, 1.93 in two true road starts.
-- Chatwood is 1-0, 3.46 in two starts this season. Cain is winless in his four starts this season, but has a 1.29 RA in his last two months.
-- Simon is 2-1, 1.29 in three starts this month.
-- Wacha is 2-1, 2.43 in four starts this season. Niese has a 2.84 RA in three starts, but no wins.
-- Lohse is 3-0, 3.15 in his last three starts. Ross is 2-0, 0.60 in his last couple starts.
-- Greinke is 3-0, 2.45 in four starts this season.

-- Gray is 3-0, 2.52 in four starts this season. Perez is 3-0, 1.54 in his last three starts; he threw 17 scoreless innings in his last two starts.
-- Tillman is 2-1, 2.39 in four starts this month.
-- Vargas is 2-0, 1.24 in four starts this season.
-- Pineda is 2-1, 1.00 in three starts this season.

-- Gonzalez is 3-1, 2.88 in four starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Eovaldi is 0-1, 4.66 in his last three starts.
-- Morton is 0-2, 6.63 in his last three starts.
-- Hamels is making first '14 start; he was 3-1, 3.73 in his last six '13 starts.

-- Cosart is 0-2, 10.13 in his last three starts. Young is 0-0, 4.00 in two starts.
-- McGowan is 1-2, 4.85 in three starts this season.
-- Masterson is 0-0, 8.59 in his last three starts.
-- Rienzo is making first '14 start; he was 2-3, 4.82 in ten starts LY. Smyly allowed four runs in three IP in his first '14 start.
-- Lackey is 0-2, 9.82 in his last couple starts.
-- Odorizzi is 0-2, 9.00 in his last two starts. Pelfrey is 0-2, 8.79 in three starts this season.

-- Weaver is 1-2, 5.11 in four starts this season.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Eovaldi 1-4; Harang 0-4
-- Miley 1-5; Samardzija 1-4
-- Cain 2-4; Chatwood 0-2
-- Simon 0-3; Morton 0-4
-- Wacha 1-4; Niese 1-3
-- Ross 1-4; Lohse 2-4
-- Hamels 0-0; Greinke 0-4

-- Perez 0-4; Gray 1-4
-- Cosart 3-4; Young 1-2
-- Tillman 1-4; McGowan 2-3
-- Vargas 0-4; Masterson 1-4
-- Rienzo 0-0; Smyly 0-1
-- Pelfrey 1-3; Odorizzi 0-3
-- Pineda 0-3; Lackey 2-4

-- Weaver 1-4; Gonzalez 2-4

Totals
-- Six of Reds' last nine games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten St Louis road games.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games stayed under total.
-- Four of last six Arizona games stayed under total.
-- All eleven games at Miller Park stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-0-1 in Giants' last eight games.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Dodger games.

-- Five of last seven White Sox road games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Cleveland home games stayed under.
-- Eight of eleven Baltimore road games went over the total.
-- Nine of ten Minnesota road games went over total.
-- Four of last five Boston games went over total.
-- Five of last six Texas games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Seattle games.

-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Washington games.

Hot teams
-- Cubs won three of their last four games.
-- Braves won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Brewers won five of their last seven games.
-- Rockies have won eight of eleven games at Coors Field.
-- Phillies won their last three games.


-- Toronto is 8-5 in its last 13 games.
-- Bronx won seven of its last nine games.
-- Detroit won three of its last four games.
-- Tampa Bay won three of its last four games.
-- Royals won five of their last seven games.
-- Texas won seven of its last eight games.

-- Angels are 7-4 on the road this season.

Cold teams
-- Pittsburgh lost six of its last eight games. Reds are 2-6 in game following a win this season.
-- Cardinals are 4-7 in game following a win. Mets are 4-7 at home this year.
-- Marlins are 1-7 on the road; bullpen have four of the seven losses.
-- Arizona lost nine of its last ten games.
-- Padres lost five of their eight road games.
-- Giants lost five of their last six games.
-- Dodgers are 3-5 in their last eight games.

-- Oakland lost last two games, with bullpen losing both.
-- Orioles lost three of their last four games.
-- Red Sox are 4-7 at home this season.
-- Indians lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Twins lost three of their last four games.
-- White Sox lost five of their last seven games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last nine games, but won last two. Seattle lost its last eight games.

-- Nationals lost eight of their last twelve games.

Umpires
-- Mia-Atl-- Three of four Hudson games stayed under.
-- Az-Chi-- This is first game behind plate for rookie ump Woodring.
-- SF-Col-- All three Conroy games went over the total.
-- Cin-Pitt-- Underdogs won four of last six Barksdale games.
-- StL-NY-- Four of five Foster games went over the total.
-- SD-Mil-- Last three TWelke games stayed under total.
-- Phil-LA-- Underdogs won all three Morales games this year.

-- Tex-A's-- Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Vanover games.
-- Hst-Sea-- Three of four Nelson games went over total.
-- Blt-Tor-- Three of four Muchinski games went over.
-- KC-Cle-- Underdogs won four of last five Hamari games.
-- Chi-Det-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six BWelke games.
-- Min-TB-- Road team won ten of last fourteen Carlson games.
-- NY-Bos-- Home side won 12 of last 14 Davis games.

-- LA-Wsh-- All three Emmel games stayed under total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Crusher
Los Angeles Angels +109 over Washington Nats
(System Record: 13-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 13-10

Rest of Crusher's plays today:

Cleveland Indians -136 over Kansas City Royals
Milwaukee Brewers -137 over San Diego Padres
Houston Astros +136 over Seattle

Dallas Stars -116 over Ducks
Columbus Blue Jackets +117 over Pittsburgh
Anaheim Ducks + Dallas Stars UNDER 5.5

Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 over Miami
Houston Rockets + Portland Trail Blazers OVER 214.5
Houston -6 over Portland

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

Minnesota at Tampa Bay

The Twins (9-10) look to bounce back from last night's 7-3 loss as they face a Rays team that is 1-4 in Jake Odorizzi's last 5 starts against a team with a losing record. Minnesota is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+170). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 23 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Miami at Atlanta (12:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Eovaldi) 14.999; Atlanta (Harang) 16.369 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-155); Over

Game 953-954: Arizona at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 14.583; Cubs (Samardzija) 13.559 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); No Total Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); N/A

Game 955-956: San Francisco at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 14.757; Colorado (Chatwood) 15.839 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 11 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 10 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-105); Over

Game 957-958: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Simon) 15.172; Pittsburgh (Morton) 16.688 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-115); Under

Game 959-960: St. Louis at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 15.236; NY Mets (Niese) 16.326 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Over

Game 961-962: San Diego at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 15.162; Milwaukee (Lohse) 16.880 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-145); Under

Game 963-964: Philadelphia at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.914; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 14.716 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-175); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+155); Over

Game 965-966: Texas at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Perez) 15.950; Oakland (Gray) 17.450 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Oakland (-155); 7 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-155); Under

Game 967-968: Houston at Seattle (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Cosart) 12.908; Seattle (Young) 14.525 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Seattle (-155); 8 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-155); Under

Game 969-970: Baltimore at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 15.759; Toronto (McGowan) 14.691 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+105); Under

Game 971-972: Kansas City at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Vargas) 14.166; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.581 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 7 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-140); Under

Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Rienzo) 15.588; Detroit (Smyly) 14.796 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+170); Over

Game 975-976: Minnesota at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pelfrey) 15.858; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.816 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-200); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+170); Over

Game 977-978: NY Yankees at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pineda) 14.707; Boston (Lackey) 16.133 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Under

Game 979-980: LA Angels at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.134; Washington (Gonzalez) 15.226 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NBA Picks

Charlotte at Miami

The Bobcats look to bounce back from their 99-88 loss in Game 1 and come into tonight's contest with a 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games following a SU defeat of more than 10 points. Charlotte is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by only 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+10 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 23 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 727-728: Charlotte at Miami (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 116.976; Miami 125.272 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 8 1/2; 181 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 10 1/2; 186 Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+10 1/2); Under

Game 729-730: Dallas at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.499; San Antonio 131.155 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9 1/2; 206 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 198 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-8); Over

Game 731-732: Portland at Houston (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 119.798; Houston 127.318 Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 7 1/2; 218 Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6; 214 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Rockets -6
Cubs -125
Yankees +120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the NHL Rangers on Tuesday and likes the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.

The deficit is 241 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Wednesday

Reds +105

Orioles +103

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play WED SA Spurs -8

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 4/23/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Wednesday, 4/23/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_______________________________________________

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#727 CHARLOTTE @ #728 MIAMI
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, TNT, SportSouth Charlotte, Sun Sports Miami - Line: Heat -10, Total: 186) - The status of center Al Jefferson is in limbo as the Charlotte Bobcats try to avoid digging themselves a deep hole against Miami when they visit the Heat in Wednesday’s Game #2 of the first-round Eastern Conference series. Jefferson suffered a plantar fasciitis injury to his left foot in the opening game of the series and plans on being cleared to play. “I’m suiting up,” Jefferson told reporters. “It will take more than that to make me sit down.”

Miami posted a 99-88 victory in the series opener as forward LeBron James scored 27 points and guard Dwyane Wade added 23. The Heat struggled for large segments of the game and the contest was tied at 59 late in the third quarter before Miami was superior over most of the final 15 minutes. The Bobcats received 20 points from point guard Kemba Walker and 18 points and 10 rebounds from a hobbling Jefferson. Charlotte is 0-16 against the Heat since James signed with the club.

•ABOUT THE BOBCATS (43-40 SU, 47-33-3 ATS): Charlotte needs a healthy and productive Jefferson to be competitive in the series and coach Steve Clifford will be watching the big man closely in Wednesday’s mid-day shootaround. “It’s tough because he’s such a big part of what we do and he’s had a great year,” Clifford told reporters. “We’ll see how he feels Wednesday. But we’ll have to adjust. We’ll have to go to more pick-and-roll and five-man basketball.” Walker was just 6-of-15 shooting and committed six turnovers in Game #1 and pointed at himself as somebody who needs to step up due to Jefferson’s situation.

•ABOUT THE HEAT (55-28 SU, 38-43-2 ATS): Miami received a surprise Game #1 contribution from backup small forward James Jones, who scored 12 points in 14 minutes. Jones played just 18 total minutes over a 3 1/2-month portion of the season until receiving some playing time opportunities in late March and even he was surprised when coach Erik Spoelstra inserted him midway through the second quarter. “Coach called my number and asked me to go in there and bring some energy and make some shots, and that’s what I did,” Jones told reporters. “My team won, that’s the best thing about it. My individual efforts don’t really give me much excitement. It’s all about winning.”

•PREGAME NOTES: The Game #1 victory marked the 17th consecutive time Miami has defeated the Bobcats.... The Heat went 11-of-23 from 3-point range in the opener, led by four from James.... Bobcats F Josh McRoberts had a solid Game #1 with 15 points on 6-of-9 shooting after averaging just 5.8 points over the final four games of the regular season.... The Heat are 29-14 versus the spread (67.4%) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.... Charlotte is 41-28 against the spread (59.4%) versus teams who attempt 18 or more three-point shots/game on the season this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, CHARLOTTE covered the spread 672 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 307 times. *EDGE against the spread =CHARLOTTE. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 574 times, while CHARLOTTE won 397 times. In 1000 simulated games, 704 games went over the total, while 277 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, CHARLOTTE covered the first half line 646 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 322 times. *EDGE against first half line =CHARLOTTE. In 1000 simulated games, 636 games went over first half total, while 364 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MIAMI is 19-19 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE since 1996.
--MIAMI is 30-10 straight up against CHARLOTTE since 1996.
--21 of 39 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--CHARLOTTE is 22-18 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--20 of 38 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Bobcats are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Miami.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games.
--Bobcats are 4-0 ATS L4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
--Over is 4-0 in Bobcats L4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

--Under is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Under is 6-1 in Heat last 7 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 6-1 in Heat last 7 games following a S.U. win.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play On - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (CHARLOTTE) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, second half of the season, in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (72-76%).
(27-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (6-28 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 11.9
The average score in these games was: Team 99.7, Opponent 106.3 (Average point differential = -6.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (48.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (83-60).
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Western Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#729 DALLAS @ #730 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, NBATV, TXA21 Dallas, FSN Southwest San Antonio - Line: Spurs -8, total: 198) - After an impressive closing run in a Game#1 victory, the San Antonio Spurs look to ride the momentum into Game #2 of their best-of-seven playoff series with the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday at home. The Mavericks were poised to pull off the series-opening upset, earning a 10-point lead midway through the fourth quarter, but the veteran Spurs absolutely dominated with a 19-4 finishing touch to pick up the 90-85 win. It was their 16th straight victory at home dating to the regular season.

San Antonio limited Dallas' leading scorer Dirk Nowitzki to 11 points on 4-of-14 shooting, which will be difficult to duplicate for the Spurs. "I think he’s definitely going to be more aggressive and try more and maybe get the ball more than he did in the last game,” forward Boris Diaw, who was one of those tasked with defending Nowitzki, told reporters Monday. Nowitzki's counterpart, Tim Duncan, had no issues on his end, producing 27 points to lead San Antonio, which has won 10 straight overall against Dallas.

•ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (49-34 SU, 45-38-0 ATS): Although it fizzled down the stretch of Game #1 in spectacular fashion, Dallas has tried to take some solace in the fact that the game was there for the taking after so many one-sided games between the teams of late. "I’m just glad to see we were able to fight and give ourselves a chance to win in the end," veteran swingman Vince Carter told the Dallas Morning News. Carter was one of three Mavericks reserves to score in double figures (guard Devin Harris had a team-high 19 points) in the opener, as the Dallas bench outscored its starters 46-39.

•ABOUT THE SPURS (63-20 SU, 45-38-0 ATS): The manner in which the Mavericks' second unit dominated was notable, as San Antonio boasts a normally solid supporting cast that was limited to 23 points on 7-of-26 shooting. Nine Spurs averaged at least 8.2 points during the regular season but only seven managed to even get into the scoring column in Game #1, with usual contributor Marco Belinelli - who averaged 11.4 points this season - missing all four of his shots and going scoreless in 12 minutes. San Antonio had a 48-40 edge on the glass and a 56-32 advantage in points in the paint.

•PREGAME NOTES: Duncan, G Tony Parker and G Manu Ginobili have won 102 postseason games together, eight fewer than the all-time winningest playoff trio of Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Michael Cooper.... San Antonio, the top 3-point shooting team during the regular season at 39.7 percent, was just 3-of-17 in Game #1.... The team that has won Game #1 has taken 77.3 percent of best-of-seven series in NBA history.... The Mavericks are 13-2 versus the spread (86.6%) in road games versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Spurs are 18-6 against the spread (75.0%) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the spread 508 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 467 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 661 times, while DALLAS won 317 times. In 1000 simulated games, 673 games went over the total, while 310 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the first half line 524 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 476 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 626 games went over first half total, while 339 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 52-45 against the spread versus DALLAS since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 63-39 straight up against DALLAS since 1996.
--51 of 100 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 52-47 versus the first half line when playing against DALLAS since 1996.
--55 of 100 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Mavericks are 4-12 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
--Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in San Antonio.

--Road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Over is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 Wednesday games.
--Over is 8-0 in Mavericks last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.

--Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
--Spurs are 5-1 ATS L6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Under is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 games following a S.U. win.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (DALLAS) - revenging 4 or more losses versus opponent in last 2 years, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, second half of the season.
(61-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +33.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.4, Opponent 51.4 (Total first half points scored = 100.7)

The situation's record this season is: (10-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-14).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (143-152).
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#731 PORTLAND @ #732 HOUSTON
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, TNT, KGW Portland, CSN Houston - Line: Rockets -6, Total: 214.5) - LaMarcus Aldridge has quite an act to follow up when the Portland Trail Blazers attempt to take a 2-0 lead when they visit the Houston Rockets in Wednesday’s Game #2 of the Western Conference playoff series. Aldridge put on the best performance in Portland’s playoff history with a franchise-record 46 points to go with 18 rebounds as the Trail Blazers recorded a 122-120 overtime win in the opener. Houston badly needs a win prior to the scene shifting to Portland for Game #3.

The Rockets had no answers for how to slow Aldridge in Game #1 and are focusing on avoiding a repeat occurrence on Wednesday. “We are going to try some different matchups,” center Dwight Howard told reporters. “When I check him, he tries to get me in a lot of pick and rolls so I am probably going to check him for a good part of the game and try to keep him out of the post.” Houston also hopes for a better shooting performance from guard James Harden, who was just 8-of-28 from the field while scoring 27 points in the opener.

•ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (55-28 SU, 45-38-0 ATS): While Aldridge and point guard Damian Lillard (31 points) were having customary big games, shooting guard Wesley Matthews was the unsung standout. Matthews had 18 points and three steals and was the primary defender on Harden for most of the contest.” I don’t know how much of that was me guarding him and how much him being off, and honestly I don’t care,” Matthews told reporters. “He is a guy who can score and I am going to have to be ready to see him again.”

•ABOUT THE ROCKETS (54-29 SU, 40-41-2 ATS): Point guard Patrick Beverley has been cleared to play after once again injuring his troublesome right knee in the opener. An MRI exam displayed no new damage but the knee remains a concern as Beverley tore the meniscus in late March and rest was the route taken as opposed to season-ending surgery. The feisty Beverley plays with a relentless in-your-face style and insists the knee isn’t an issue moving forward. “I know my body better than anybody else,” Beverley told reporters. “I felt a real stiff little pain toward the area that I hurt before. I was fortunate, though. It healed fast, I guess.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Aldridge is the first NBA player with at least 46 points and 18 rebounds in a road playoff game since Los Angeles Lakers Hall of Famer Elgin Baylor in Game #5 of the 1962 NBA Finals.... Howard had 27 points and 15 rebounds but his shooting was subpar from both the field (9-of-21) and the free-throw line (9-of-17) in the opener.... Portland received just seven points on 2-of-14 shooting from its bench in Game #1.... The Rockets are 4-14 against the spread (22.2%) versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Trail Blazers are 8-0 versus the spread in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the spread 490 times, while PORTLAND covered the spread 481 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON won the game straight up 607 times, while PORTLAND won 365 times. In 1000 simulated games, 583 games went under the total, while 417 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, PORTLAND covered the first half line 482 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 479 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 551 games went under first half total, while 425 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PORTLAND is 36-34 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 42-32 straight up against PORTLAND since 1996.
--37 of 70 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--HOUSTON is 43-28 versus the first half line when playing against PORTLAND since 1996.
--36 of 69 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.

--Road team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Underdog is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 overall.
--Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Over is 8-0 in Trail Blazers L8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

--Over is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Over is 8-1 in Rockets last 9 after allowing 100 points or more.
--Over is 7-0 in Rockets last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - a good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(33-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.5%, +24.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 209.5
The average score in these games was: Team 99.8, Opponent 97.6 (Total points scored = 197.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 29 (67.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (7-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (87-53).
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Wednesday, April 23

Miami has won 16 games in row over Bobcat team that is 0-5 all-time in playoff games; Heat covered nine of last 11 series games- they made 11 of 23 from arc in Game 1, were +6 in turnovers. Miami subs combined to be +77; Charlotte's bench was -51. Bobcats are 23-17-2 vs spread on road; five of their last eight games stayed under total. Miami was +17 in 14:00 Dwyane Wade was off the floor in Game 1, -6 with him on floor.

Mavericks are trying beat Spurs best-of-7, team they've lost to last ten in a row (3-7 vs spread). Dallas is 28-14 vs spread on the road this year; they lost last seven visits to Alamo. Spurs had 15-0 run in 4th quarter to pull Game 1 out; two days off between games helps older Spurs, whose bench (except for Ginobili) was combined -45 in 51:00 played. Starters for Dallas shot just 32% in Game 1; their bench played well.

Aldridge had 46 points, 18 boards in Game 1 OT win; Portland won ten of last 11 games; they're 26-16 vs spread on road this season. Blazers lost five of last seven games with Rockets-- last eight tilts in series went over total. Portland lost three of last four visits to Houston, losing by 15-13-5 points. Rockets are 22-18-1 vs spread at home this season, but Harden better shoot better than 8-28, or this will be short series.