Service Plays Wednesday 2/19/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post ther daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.
Do not post any copy written info from the following services.


Advertise with the Rx - do not post
Al Mcmordie
Allan Eastman
Doc's Sports Services
Jim Feist
Ocal Sports
Robert Ferringo
Sports Money Profit System
Strike Point Sports
Vegas Sports Informer
Vegas Winning Crew


Do not post write-ups
AJ Apollo
Alex Smart
@ntonwins
Apple Handicappers
ASA, ASA Inc’s or American Sports Analysts
ATS Consultants
ATSadv ice.com
Ben Lewis
Brandon Lang's Crew
Bruce Marshall
Chris Jordan's Crew
Dave Cokin
Dennis Hill
Dennis Macklin
Dr. Bob Sports
Dr. guru sports
EZ Winners
Fairway Jay
Fred Wallin
Gametimereport
Greg DiPalma
Hittingpaydirt
JB Sports
Jim Avery
Jim Kruger
Jorge Gonzalez
Ken Jenkins
Killersportslive
Larry Ness
Lenny Delgenio
LT Profits
Lucky Lester
Madduxsports
Marc Lawrence/Playbook
Matt Fargo
Mike Lineback
Mike Rose
Pacific (Pac Star) Sports
PayneInsider
Paul Stone
Peter Gold at VI
Pick Nation Crew
PlusLineSports
Pointwise Sports
PowerPlay Wins
Preferred Picks
Pregame
Pro Sports Info
Red Zone Sports
Right Angle Sports (RAS)
Rocky Atkinson
Ron Raymond
Ross Benjamin
Sal Bansa/sportspicks1019
Scott Spreitzer
Sixth Sense Sports
Sports Memo Crew
Steve Merril SportsAlatex Sports
Stevo Design Inc. All services
Ted Sevransky/Teddy Covers
Tennessee Valley Sports
THELOCKOFTHEDAY
The Prez
The Real Animal
Tony George
Tony Karpinski/3G-Sports
Tom Stryker
Trushel Sports Consulting
Vegasadvisor s.com
Vernon Croy
Winning Points/Sports Reporter
zen_gambler
-------
GL!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve's Outright Winner Picks

GRAHAM DELAET 45 TO 1
IAN POULTER 30 TO 1
JORDAN SPIETH 25 TO 1
JASON DUFNER 55 TO 1
DUSTIN JOHNSON 19 TO 1
KEEGAN BRADLEY 45 TO 1

Head to Head Daily Match Up Picks

Round 1 Match Up Picks

3 UNITS - IAN POULTER (-170) over Rickie Fowler
2 UNITS - JASON DUFNER (-140) over Scott Stallings
1 UNIT - DUSTIN JOHNSON (-180) over Peter Hanson

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's Olympic hockey betting cheat sheet

Here's a look at Wednesday's Olympic men's hockey action:

Sweden vs. Slovenia (+1,200)

The Swedes overcame Henrik Sedin's absence and Henrik Zetterberg's mid-tournament injury departure to lock up the top seed in the tournament and a quarterfinal date with the upstart Slovenians. Sweden's defense and goaltending limited Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Latvia to five goals en route to a perfect round-robin record. The Slovenians continued their strong tournament with a 4-0 triumph over Austria in the qualification playoff, but will be hard-pressed to repeat the feat against a Swedish side that boasts some of the top talent in the world.

Finland vs. Russia (-213)

Not even a four-goal victory in the qualification playoff was enough to ease the relative anxiety of the home fans, who haven't seen their beloved team play a good game since the tournament-opening win over Slovenia. The Russians' 4-0 triumph over Norway exposed many of the team's biggest flaws - and those shortcomings could torpedo their gold-medal chances as they face a Finnish squad missing several key players but still looking dangerous. Finland earned a bye with wins over Austria and Norway and an OT loss to Canada, a game that was tightly-contested throughout.

Czech Republic vs. United States (-286)

The United States finished with the same record as rival Canada, yet face a much tougher path to a potential semifinal matchup. The Americans rolled to a 3-0-0 record with a plus-11 goal differential, but will be in tough against a Czech side that finally showed its immense potential - before almost melting down - en route to a 5-3 qualification win over Slovakia. The Americans tied Finland for the most round-robin goals with 15, and are deep at every position. The Czechs stumbled through their first four games, but could prove difficult to knock off.

Latvia vs. Canada (-5556)

Finishing third in the round-robin may have actually been a blessing for the defending champions, who will face an unheralded Latvian side that stunned Switzerland 3-1 in the qualification playoff. A match with the Swiss likely would have been more trouble for the Canadians than a date with Latvia, which played over its head Tuesday and will struggle mightily to handle Canada's size, speed and strength in all areas of the ice. Carey Price will get the start in goal for the Canadians, and shouldn't expect to be busy.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arsenal hopes to avoid repeat of last season
Andrew Avery

When Arsenal and Bayern Munich square off in Champions League football from the Emirates Wednesday, the home side will hope to avoid the same result from one season ago.

The two clubs met at this stage in Champions League last season, and the German club made quick work of Arsenal, winning 3-1.

The Gunners are currently +400 home dogs, with Munich currently -133.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Exposing the Top 25
Jesse Schule

Each week throughout the college basketball season, Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Virginia Cavaliers (21-5 SU, 13-8-1 ATS)

The Cavs are making some noise in the ACC, with nine straight wins they are now sitting just a half game back of the No. 1 ranked Syracuse Orange in the conference standings. They will host the Orange in Charlottesville on March 1st, and that game could well be for the conference title. The Cavs are playing stellar defense, holding opponents to a conference-low 38.4 percent shooting from the floor. If you believe that defense wins championships, then you have to like the Cav's chances of winning the ACC.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team - Syracuse Orange (25-0, 13-7-1 ATS)

The Orange are still undefeated, and it's tough to argue that they don't deserve to be the top ranked team. They have looked far from invincible lately though, winning back to back thrillers by a combined three points. Tyler Ennis threw up a prayer at the buzzer in Pittsburgh last week, and his three pointer gave the Orange a 58-56 win on the road. Then they narrowly avoided defeat at home to N.C. State on Saturday, winning by a score of 56-55. With a pair of tough road games upcoming against Duke and Virginia over the next two weeks, it's going to be pretty tough to remain undefeated.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked - Pittsburgh Panthers (20-6, 7-15-1 ATS)

The Panthers did everything to deserve a home victory over Syracuse last week, and they were less than one second away from handing the No. 1 ranked Orange their first defeat of the season. Instead, Tyler Ennis hits a deep three pointer as the clock expires, and the Panthers are dropped from the rankings a few days later. This Pitt team has suffered a handful of similar losses in close games, losing to Cincinnati, Virginia, North Carolina, and Syracuse twice, all in games decided by four points or less.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of Day: Creighton at Marquette

Creighton Bluejays at Marquette Golden Eagles (+3, 143)

Fresh off a statement win in a showdown for first place in the Big East Conference, Creighton hopes to keep the momentum going when it visits Marquette on Wednesday night. The 12th-ranked Bluejays moved atop the league standings on Sunday by bludgeoning then-No. 6 Villanova for the second time in less than a month behind a season high-tying 39 points from Doug McDermott. “I think he’s as good a (college) basketball player as I’ve ever seen,” Villanova coach Jay Wright said of McDermott. “There’s nothing he can’t do."

Marquette lost at Creighton 67-49 on New Year's Eve but carries a season-high three-game winning streak into the rematch. The Golden Eagles have won four of their last five and only a pair of overtime losses last month is keeping them from knocking on the door for an NCAA Tournament berth. Marquette has advanced to the NCAAs for eight consecutive seasons - the sixth-longest active streak nationally - and is among four programs to reach the regional semifinals in each of the last three seasons.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Creighton as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 143 points.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Creighton (-14.9) - Marquette (-2.2) + Home Court (-3.0) = Creighton -9.7

INJURY WATCH: N/A

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "I've touched on it before, but here's the difference between navigating the Big East and the Missouri Valley: Creighton gets no rest after their satisfying Villanova blowout. Instead of hosting Bradley or Missouri State they have to gear up for a trip to Marquette to face the extremely underrated Golden Eagles." - Covers Experts' Doc's Sports.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Coming off a big win versus Villanova, Creighton looks to keep the momentum going against Marquette, a team they beat at home by 18 points to end 2013. Look for the line on this game to hover around 8-8.5 in favor of Creighton." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT CREIGHTON (21-4 SU, 14-9 ATS, 9-13 O/U): McDermott leads the nation in scoring at 25.9 points per game and is etching his name alongside a Who's Who of all-time greats. McDermott (2,863 points), who was named Big East player of the week for a league-record seventh time, surpassed Larry Bird for 13th place on the NCAA career list and is 22 points shy of eclipsing Tyler Hansbrough (2,872) and Elvin Hayes (2,884). Guard Jahenns Manigat scored 16 points in the win over Marquette on Dec. 31, but he was held scoreless against Villanova and is averaging only 4.8 points in his last five games.

ABOUT MARQUETTE (15-10 SU, 10-12-1 ATS, 11-10-1 O/U): Coach Buzz Williams has played musical chairs with his starting lineup for much of the season, but moving leading scorer Davante Gardner back to the bench has paid off in the recent hot stretch. Gardner has turned in consecutive 16-point outings in a reserve role and taken advantage of his bruising 290-pound frame in those games, going to the free-throw line 21 times and missing only once. Second-leading scorer Jamil Wilson is also on a tear, averaging 19.3 points in the three-game win streak after being held to one point in a loss at St. John's on Feb. 1.

TRENDS:

* Bluejays are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Golden Eagles are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five vs. Big East.
* Under is 5-1 in Bluejays last six overall.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Golden Eagles last four overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 52 percent of bets are on Creighton -3.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
BUFFALO over Akron (Wed) RATING: 1
LSU over Mississippi State (Wed) RATING: 3

(7:00) St Josephs 63 - RHODE ISLAND 62 _____ _____

(7:00) William & Mary 71 - CHARLESTON 64 _____ _____

(7:00) ST BONAVENTURE 86 - Duquesne 63 _____ _____

(7:00) Delaware 80 - HOFSTRA 78 _____ _____

(7:00) JAMES MADISON 67 - Drexel 66 _____ _____

(7:00) OHIO STATE 70 - Northwestern 62 (BIG10) _____ _____

(7:00) SYRACUSE 75 - Boston College 55 (ESPN2) _____ _____

(7:00) FLORIDA 79 - Auburn 57 (FSN) _____ _____

(7:00) Saint Louis 84 - GEORGE MASON 80 (NBCS) _____ _____

(7:00) XAVIER 81 - DePaul 63 (CBSC) _____ _____

(7:00) Cincinnati 72 - CENTRAL FLORIDA 62 (ESPNU) _____ _____

(7:00) INDIANA STATE 75 - Evansville 61 _____ _____

(7:00) BUFFALO 83 - Akron 70 _____ _____

(7:00) Kent State 68 - MIAMI-OHIO 67 _____ _____

(7:00) OHIO U 79 - Western Michigan 74 _____ _____

(7:00) CENTRAL MICHIGAN 71 - Ball State 69 _____ _____

(8:00) Creighton 65 - MARQUETTE 58 (FOX 1) _____ _____

(8:00) Wichita State 71 - LOYOLA-CHICAGO 50 _____ _____

(8:00) LSU 80 - Mississippi State 55 _____ _____

(8:00) MISSOURI 78 - Vanderbilt 72 _____ _____

(8:00) SMU 83 - Houston 58 (ESPNN) _____ _____

(9:00) KANSAS STATE 87 - Tcu 57 (ESPNU) _____ _____

(9:00) ARKANSAS 74 - South Carolina 61 _____ _____

(9:00) OREGON 81 - Washington 70 (ESPN2) _____ _____

(9:00) Notre Dame 53 - MIAMI-FLORIDA 52 _____ _____

(9:00) DAYTON 72 - LaSalle 59 (CBSC) _____ _____

(9:00) MINNESOTA 68 - Illinois 54 (BIG10) _____ _____

(10:00) UTAH 66 - Arizona 63 (FOX 1) _____ _____

(10:30) CALIFORNIA 71 - Ucla 67 _____ _____

(11:00) UNLV 69 - New Mexico 68 (ESPN2) _____ _____

(11:00) COLORADO 70 - Arizona State 64 (ESPNU) _____ _____

BEST BETS
WILLIAM & MARY
ST BONAVENTURE
BUFFALO (1)
LSU (3)
SMU
KANSAS STATE
NOTRE DAME
DAYTON

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE

NBA KEY RELEASES
BOSTON over Phoenix (Wed) RATING: 2
WASHINGTON over Atlanta (Wed) RATING: 3

(7:05) TORONTO RAPTORS 105 - Chicago Bulls 93 _____ _____

(7:05) Detroit Pistons 99 - CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 92 _____ _____

(7:05) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 116 - Orlando Magic 106 _____ _____

(7:35) Washington Wizards 101 - ATLANTA HAWKS 92 _____ _____

(8:05) NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 99 - New York 98 _____ _____

(8:05) MINNESOTA 115 - Indiana Pacers 110 (ESPN) _____ _____

(9:05) Boston Celtics 104 - PHOENIX SUNS 103 _____ _____

(9:05) UTAH JAZZ 104 - Brooklyn Nets 97 _____ _____

(10:05) PORTLAND BLAZERS 101 - San Antonio Spurs 99 _____ _____

(10:05) Golden State Warriors 106 - SACRAMENTO 95 _____ _____

(10:35) LA LAKERS 108 - Houston Rockets 104 (ESPN) _____ _____

BEST BETS
CLEVELAND
WASHINGTON (3)
BOSTON (2)
GOLDEN STATE

 

[BuzzKill]

FYI: Up-to-date newsletters are posted in the Newsletter Thread in the Rubber Room.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Accenture Match Play Championship Preview
Matt Fargo

After an exciting finish at the Northern Trust Open, the PGA Tour heads to Arizona for the WGC - Accenture Match Play Championship from The Golf Club at Dove Mountain in Marana. This is a field of the top 64 players in the world that play until one winner remains and with it being the only match play event of the season on the PGA Tour, it definitely gets some added attention. However, three of the top four players in the world are not playing this week; Tiger Woods, Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson.

The WGC Match Play starts a day earlier to accommodate the six rounds and concludes with a 36-hole final match on Sunday. Unlike the NCAA Tournament where the higher seeds normally advance, anything can happen here and while rankings are still important, they are not to be taken too much into consideration. In the 15 years of this event, a number one seed has won it only three times and that of course was Tigers Woods, the only player to win this event three times.

There are plenty of upsets throughout but for the most part, a low seed usually takes home the prize. In four of the last six years, a number three seed or better has won the event and in the 15 years, 12 winners have come from a number six seed or better including seven of the last 10 years where a number four seed or better won. Each of the past two years has featured 15 first-round upsets which is the most in any year since 18 took place during the debut in 1999.

Taking a look at last year, number six seed Matt Kuchar defeated defending champion Hunter Mahan 2&1. In the first round, as mentioned, 15 of the 32 matches saw the higher seed pull off the upset including 16th seeds Shane Lowry and Charles Howell III defeating number one seeds Rory McIlroy and Tiger Wood respectively. The other number one seeds Louis Oosthuizen and Luke Donald narrowly escaped their first round matches and both went down in the second round.

Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Justin Rose and Zach Johnson are the number one seeds this year. McIlroy is the favorite to win at +1,200 with Stenson at +2,000, Rose at +2,500 and Johnson at +2,800. Of the other top favorites, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson at both at +1,300 while first timer Jordan Spieth is +1,800. Number 16 seed in the Hogan Bracket, Boo Weekley, takes on McIlroy and he is the biggest longshot on the board as he can be found at +25,000 in several outlets.

There are 19 first time participants in the field this week with three matches pitting rookie against rookie. Of those 19 rookies, 13 are double-digit seeds while Jordan Spieth is the highest ranked first timer, the number three seed in the Player Bracket. Stenson is the only number one seed that is facing a rookie, Kiradech Aphibarnrat while Matt Kuchar and Sergio Garcia, two of the four number two seeds are also facing first time participants.

There will be five tournament picks, with at least one from each bracket. These are overall tournament picks, not just winning their respective brackets. Additionally, matchup winners will be provided each day.

Jason Day +1,300

We are catching some short odds on Day but this could finally be his time. He made a great run here last year before losing to eventual champion Matt Kuchar in the semifinals. He then defeated Ian Poulter 1 up in the consolation match. He has a pretty easy road to the Jones Bracket final match.

Webb Simpson +2,500

Simpson has been very consistent with 17 straight made cuts on tour and that includes 12 top 25 finishes. He is coming off a T70 last week at Riviera but that is not an issue. The match play is a different animal but one that he has tamed as he made it to the final eight last year before losing to Hunter Mahan 1 up.

Ian Poulter +3,000

I think Poulter has the best value odds on the board as he is considered one of the best in match play in the world. He won the 2010 WGC-Accenture Match Play and the 2011 Volvo Match Play on the European Tour. He has a 22-11 record here including a couple fourth place finishes to go along with his win.

Graeme McDowell +3,000

McDowell is another great player at match play as he was runner-up to Nicolas Colsaerts in the 2012 Volvo Match Play before coming back to win it in 2013. He has advanced to at least the round of 16 in two of his past three starts here and last year he won three matches before losing to Jason Day 1 up in the fourth round.

Ryan Moore +4,000

Moore is a seventh seed so that is a longshot in this event but he has had match play success in the past as an amateur and made it to the final eight back in 2011. He has to get past Kuchar and Spieth but it is clear sailing after that and his odds have a lot of value based on the tough bracket. T6 at Phoenix after winning the CIMB Classic.

Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the WGC - Accenture Match Play Championship - All for 1 Unit

Jason Day +1,300

Webb Simpson +2,500

Ian Poulter +3,000

Ryan Moore +4,000

Graeme McDowell +3,000

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

McIlroy highlights 64-golfer Accenture field
by Brian Graham

World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship

Tees Off: Wednesday, February 19
Ritz-Carlton Golf Club – Marana, AZ

Odds to Win Tournament

Golfer Odds
Rory McIlroy 12-to-1
Jason Day 13-to-1
Dustin Johnson 13-to-1
Jordan Spieth 18-to-1
Matt Kuchar 20-to-1
Hunter Mahan 20-to-1
Henrik Stenson 20-to-1
Justin Rose 25-to-1
Sergio Garcia 25-to-1
Bubba Watson 25-to-1
Webb Simpson 25-to-1
Zach Johnson 28-to-1
Graeme McDowell 30-to-1
Ian Poulter 30-to-1
Charl Schwartzel 30-to-1
Graham DeLaet 35-to-1
Keegan Bradley 40-to-1
Ryan Moore 40-to-1
Luke Donald 40-to-1
Jimmy Walker 40-to-1
Brandt Snedeker 40-to-1
Steve Stricker 40-to-1
Jim Furyk 50-to-1
Martin Kaymer 50-to-1
Lee Westwood 50-to-1
Bill Haas 50-to-1
Jason Dufner 50-to-1
Harris English 50-to-1
Hideki Matsuyama 50-to-1
Patrick Reed 60-to-1
Gary Woodland 60-to-1
Louis Oosthuizen 60-to-1
Nick Watney 60-to-1
Chris Kirk 80-to-1
Rickie Fowler 80-to-1
George Coetzee 80-to-1
Victor Dubuisson 80-to-1
Thomas Bjorn 80-to-1
Thorbjorn Olesen 80-to-1
Billy Horschel 80-to-1
Ernie Els 100-to-1
Kevin Stadler 100-to-1
Marc Leishman 100-to-1
Jamie Donaldson 100-to-1
Joost Luiten 100-to-1
Francesco Molinari 100-to-1
Peter Hanson 100-to-1
Scott Piercy 100-to-1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 125-to-1
FIELD 9-to-2

Once again, golf takes to bracket-style match play in Wednesday's Accenture Match Play Championship where a field of 64 players will look to take home the big prize at the Ritz-Carlton Golf Club in Marana, AZ. Dove Mountain plays as the longest course on the Tour, but as always, this week will come down to who can make the clutch shots at the big moments. Here’s a look at the best bets for this exciting tournament…

Luke Donald (40/1): Donald's odds are so favorable because has played lousy in his two starts in 2014, placing 37th in Abu Dhabi and 57th at the Qatar Masters. However, the 2011 Accenture champion has won 17 of 25 career matches (68%) in this tournament, including an 8-1 mark in his opening match. Despite being a No. 5 seed this year, Donald has as good a chance as anybody on getting out of the Gary Player bracket, making him the best value pick on the board this week.

Hunter Mahan (20/1): Mahan's odds are pretty unfavorable, but that's because he has thrived in this tournament, going 15-5 in his career. That includes a stellar 11-1 mark over the past two Accenture tourneys, where he won in 2012 and then fell to Matt Kuchar in the finals last year. Despite being tabbed as the No. 8 seed in the toughest bracket in this tournament (Sam Snead bracket), Mahan is still worthy of a small wager at 20-to-1 odds.

Jimmy Walker (40/1): When the hottest golfer in the world is getting 40-to-1 odds, you have to pounce on that. Walker already has three wins during this 2013-14 season thanks to his 301.1 driving distance (15th on tour) that has led to 4.88 birdies per round (4th on tour). As the No. 6 seed in tough Ben Hogan bracket, he's not expected to do much, but if you believe in riding the hot hand, look no further than Walker this week.

Graham DeLaet (35/1): Before last week's disappointing 70th place finish at the Northern Trust Open, DeLaet had tallied four straight top-7 finishes, including back-to-back runner-ups at the Farmers Insurance Open and Phoenix Open. He's the No. 6 seed in the Bobby Jones bracket, and proved that he could thrive in this format during the Presidents Cup in October when he was 3-1-1 in match play. DeLaet should go far in his Accenture debut, and will be a tough out for whoever he faces, making his 35-to-1 price tag very enticing.

Harris English (50/1): English has never played in the Accenture Match play, but he will make his debut with plenty of confidence after the roll he's been on. In his past eight starts, he has not fired a round above 71, finishing 11th or better in five of those events. This includes a victory at the OHL Classic in November and a 10th-place showing last week at the Northern Trust Open. He has a difficult road in this tournament facing Lee Westwood and then likely tourney favorite Rory McIlroy, but if he can get past those two golfers, English could turn a one-unit wager into a monster payoff.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Accenture Match Play First Round Matchups
Matt Fargo

Listed are nine First Round Matchup Best Bets (All for 2 Units):

Jones Bracket

Louis Oosthuizen -110 over Nick Watney

Oosthuizen was a No. 1 seed a year ago so that alone gives us good odds here since he is now an eight-seed. He won in January so his seeding slip isn't because he is playing bad. Watney has had success here but he is not playing good at the moment with zero top 25 finishes in six starts.

David Lynn +145 over Brandt Snedeker

We played Lynn last year and he was smacked by Webb Simpson. That will only help him here and he gets a much better draw this year. Snedeker is playing poorly with his best finish being a T58 in his last four starts including two cuts. He doesn't look like he is back to 100 percent from his injury.

George Coetzee +125 over Steve Stricker

Stricker is solid in this format but he has not made a start since the TOUR Championship in September and you have to question his mental state with his brother just having gone through a liver transplant. Coetzee qualified for the competition with his win last week at the Joburg Open in South Africa.

Hogan Bracket

Chris Kirk +110 over Jim Furyk

Furyk has had a decent start to the season with a T23 last week and a T35 at the AT&T. His match play record is not good as he has made it out of the first round only once in his last nine starts here and his poor 9-17-4 Ryder Cup record only adds to it. Kirk is making his debut here but has been solid this year with a win and a runner up.

Miguel Angel Jimenez +140 over Bill Haas

Jimenez is a veteran who has had a lot of success in match play here as he has made the final eight in three of the last four years (didn't play last year). He won in Hong Kong in January. Haas has been here three times in the past and has yet to make it out of the first round including a 5&4 loss to Nicolas Colsaerts last year.

Player Bracket

Ernie Els -105 over Stephen Gallacher

Els has not been able to advance very far here but he has lost in the first round only once and while it was last year, it was a 1 up loss to Fredrik Jacobson who made it to the third round. Gallacher won the Omega Dubai Desert Classic for the second straight year but it didn't help him last year as he lost to Ian Poulter.

Matteo Manassero +150 over Luke Donald

Donald is a past winner here and his match play record is solid but he has not been playing well and these odds look to be based on the past and not the present. Manassero has won a European Tour event in each of the last four years and has won at least one match in two of three starts here. Lost to Mahan last year.

Snead Bracket

Peter Hanson +160 over Dustin Johnson

We are going with two big upsets in the Snead Bracket. Johnson has been red hot with two straight runner up finishes but this format is not made for him as he has lost in the first round in four of five starts. Hanson won his first round match last year, made it to the quarterfinals two years ago and the Round of 16 in 2009.

Mikko Ilonen +180 over Bubba Watson

Watson is coming off a win last week thanks to an unbelievable weekend with a 64-64. While it could provide momentum, being his first win since 2012, I think it is letdown time instead. Ilonen is making his debut but is playing excellent with a solo second in Qatar and a T5 in Dubai.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Best and Worst College Basketball Conference Newcomers

This season has marked the beginning of conference realignment in college basketball in a drastic way. From the makeshift American Athletic Conference and the exodus of the original Big East with the departures of Pitt, Notre Dame and Syracuse to the ACC, there have been a large handful of teams making their inaugural appearances in new conferences.

We look at the Best and Worst bets making the jump between conferences this season

Best

SMU Mustangs (9-4 American, 10-3 ATS)

Led by legendary head coach Larry Brown, SMU has been rewarded for investing in its basketball program as its big hire and new gym has given the Mustangs new life. Third in the AAC, ahead of traditional powerhouses UConn and Memphis, the Mustangs are a solid 10-3 ATS and have been riding their top-ranked defense to success. In a brand new conference, SMU has been the breakout team and should continue to be a tough team to beat while holding opponents to 37 percent shooting - second best in the Nation.

Syracuse Orange (12-0 ACC, 7-4-1 ATS)

You couldn't make a list of the best conference debuts without Syracuse. Although the Orange have had some close calls against Pittsburgh and North Carolina State, Jim Boeheim's team has yet to lose in its new conference. A weekend trip to Cameron to face Duke awaits and Syracuse is just 2-3 ATS over its last five. But the Orange's record as a whole earns them an easy spot on this list.

Worst

Pittsburgh Panthers (8-5 ACC, 4-8-1 ATS)

Entering conference play, Pitt was a team that looked like it would be contending with Syracuse and Duke for the conference title. Now, the Panthers are in a stretch where they have been swept by Syracuse and have lost to Duke, Virginia and North Carolina to fall into fifth in the ACC. On an 0-6 ATS streak, the Panthers are developing a reputation of not being able to step it up and play with the big boys, which is leading to letdowns against weaker schools as well.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-8 ACC, 4-8-1 ATS)

Like Pitt, Notre Dame's beginnings in the ACC haven't been easy. Matching an identical 4-8-1 ATS record, Notre Dame's NCAA hopes are fading with each loss in conference play that are keeping the Irish in the bottom half of the ACC table. Things have gotten better recently, with Notre Dame a winner of two straight and riding a 2-1-1 ATS stretch. But nobody is going to define the Fighting Irish's first ACC season as a success story so far.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

What's behind the NBA's most profitable 'Over/Under' runs?
by Bryan Covert

Straight up records and points per game often tell only a small fraction of the story when it comes to NBA totals. Four teams that possess some interesting total trends to see why they occur so bettors can try and determine if they’ll continue.

Memphis Grizzlies (29-23 SU, 22-30 O/U)

There may not be a better team in the NBA at getting opponents to play their style than the Memphis Grizzlies. According to advanced statistics, they average the lowest amount of possession attempts per game at 91.6 yet they are quite efficient offensively, averaging 102 points per 100 possessions. This is just further evidence of what we know about the Grizz: They are a slow, deliberate team that runs their offense through their bigs and uses the shot clock to get high percentage shots.

And while oddsmakers have a good grip on this team’s totals at home they seem to underestimate the Grizzlies’ ability to impose their methodical will on the road. This is evidenced 14-14 O/U record at home and their 8-16 O/U record away from FedEx Forum.

Portland Trail Blazers (36-17 SU, 33-19-1 O/U)

Maybe it’s the fact their tucked away in the Pacific Northwest or that they just continue to surprise everyone, but oddmakers can’t seem to get a handle on the Trail Blazers’ totals. Stats have Portland as the league’s best offensive team, averaging 107.9 points on less than 98 possessions per game.

According to advanced metrics, they are right near the bottom defensively allowing 105.7 points per 100 attempts, translating into a 33-19-1 O/U record overall. However, it is interesting to note the proliferation of the Over has slowed over the last 10, going 4-5-1 O/U. And bettors could see this trend continue if the Blazers make a move to shore up their defense before the deadline.

Charlotte Bobcats (23-30 SU, 24-27-2 O/U)

Head coach Steve Clifford was hired to give the Charlotte Bobcats an identity and that he has, turning the Bobcats into a defensively-tough, offensively-efficient squad that is currently in a playoff position for the first time since the 2009-2010 season.

The Bobcats average 95.1 possessions per game, have the lowest turnover rate in the league, and the second best defensive rebounding rate. But they are a sub-par offensive team, averaging just 94.7 points per game and their defense efficiency falls off away from home, allowing 99.6 away from Time Warner Cable Arena and 94.4 at home. This may explain why the O/U is 9-16-1 in Charlotte and 16-9-2 on the road.

Atlanta Hawks (25-26 SU, 30-21 O/U)

The Atlanta Hawks are about as “middle of the road” as you can get. They currently sit with a 25-26 record overall, averaging 101.4 points per game while allowing 100.9 points per contest. Even considering their ATS record, they are about as even as Steven with a 26-25 ATS count. So why would the Hawks’road record lean so heavily towards the Over with a 30-21 O/U record?

The main reason seems to be that they’re a team of runs. For example, in November they averaged 98.1 points while allowing 98.5. While, through December and January, they averaged 105.3 and allowed 102.3 points. Not surprisingly, the total goes on runs as well with the Over hitting in stretches of nine and five games in a row and four in a row on two separate occasions. Meanwhile, the Under has paid out in runs of five and six and has currently hit in the team’s last three before the break.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Wednesday, February 19

St Joe's won last three games with Rhode Island, beating them 61-57 in first meeting Jan 22. Hawks won/covered four of last five games, 3-2 on A-13 road, winning by 4-3-11 points on foreign soil. URI lost last five games (1-4 vs spread); they're 2-1 as a home underdog, losing home games by 1-5-12 points- underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in their home games. A-13 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-10 vs spread.

Cincinnati (-14) beat UCF 69-51 at home Jan 23, making 56% inisde arc, while Knights were 6-17 on foul line. Bearcats are 0-3 as road favorites, winning away games by 16-1-7-4-3 points, with a loss at SMU. Home underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in their road games. AAC home underdogs of 8 or less points are 3-8 vs spread. UCF snapped 9-game skid in last game- they're 0-4 as home dogs, losing at home by 25-12-10-1-20.

Home side won seven of last eight Akron-Buffalo games; Zips lost last four visits here, by 13-3-12-14 points. Akron is 3-2 in last five games (0-5 vs spread) with four of five decided by 4 or less points- they're 2-1 as road dogs, losing two of last three on road, by 3-3 points. Buffalo won five of last seven games, is 5-1 as home favorite, but they lost last home game. MAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-13.

Home side won 10 of last 12 Western Michigan-Ohio games; Broncos lost last five visits here, by 4-32-3-16-5 points- they beat Ohio 90-74 in first meeting (+1) Feb 5, outscoring Bobcats 26-7 on foul line, 38-20 in last 10:00 of game. MAC home favorites of more than 5 points are 7-14 vs spread. Ohio won its last three home games; they're 2-4 as favorites at home, winning in Athens by 20-4-5-7 points.

Creighton (-8) beat Marquette 67-49 at home Dec 31; Bluejays were 13 of 35 from arc, 4-4 on line, 12-27 inside arc. Big East home underdogs of 4 or less points are 6-4 vs spread. Marquette won/covered its last three games- they're 5-1 at home, with only loss in OT to Villanova. Eagles are 2-4 as Big East underdogs. Creighton won six of last seven games, is 1-4 vs spread in last five- dogs covered their last four road games.

Vanderbilt (+1.5) beat Missouri 78-75 at home Jan 16, making 12-32 on arc as they avenged an 81-59 loss here LY; Commodores are 3-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 5-23-6 points, winning at A&M/Georgia. Mizzou won last two games by total of six points; they're 2-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 21-8-1-5, losing to Georgia/Kentucky. SEC home favorites of 9+ points are 14-8 vs spread.

Oregon split its last six games after a 1-5 Pac-12 start; Ducks are 1-4 as home favorites, winning last two at home by 12-10 points. Washington (+2.5) beat Oregon 80-76 Jan 23, shooting 57% inside arc; Huskies lost last three visits to Eugene by 5-25-5 points. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 12-8 vs spread. Washington lost four of its last five games; they lost last six road games, covering one of last four as road dog.

Miami lost six of its last seven games, with last four losses all by 7 or less points; Hurricanes are 0-3 as ACC favorites this year, getting beat SU in all three- they're 0-6 at home, scoring 60 or less points in all six. Notre Dame lost five of last seven games, with both wins in OT; Irish ia 0-5 on ACC road, losing away games by 5-8-2-7-6 points. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 6-12 vs spread.

Illinois lost 10 of last 11 games, with only win at Penn State; Illini won four of last six games vs Minnesota, splitting last four played here. Big Dozen single digit home favorites are 12-20 vs spread. Minnesota lost four of last six games but won four of last five at home- they're 1-3 as a home favorite-- underdogs covered five of their six home games. Illinois is 2-3 as a road underdog, losing away games by 25-6-7-10-9 points.

Arizona (-13) beat Utah 65-56 at home Jan 26, after trailing by 10 early in game that was tied with 10:00 to go; Wildcats are 5-0 vs Utah in its Pac-12 games, winning here by 26-4 points. Arizona split its last four games, is 1-6 vs spread in last seven; their last three road games were all decided by 3 or less points. Pac-12 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-8 vs spread. Utah won its last five home games.

UCLA (-7) beat Cal 76-64 at home Jan 26, holding Bears to 35% from floor; Bruins lost last three visits to Berkeley by 4-16-13 points. UCLA won/covered six of last seven games; they're 3-2 on Pac-12 road, losing at Utah/Oregon State. Pac-12 home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-5 vs spread. California won three of last four games but lost two of its last three at home- they're 2-5 vs spread in their last seven games.

UNLV led by 16 early, hung on for 76-73 (+8.5) win at Pit Jan 15, with Rebels making 7-13 from arc; teams are now 7-7 in last 14 series games, but Lobos beat UNLV on this court in last two MW tourneys, after loss to Rebels here in regular season. Mountain West home teams are 7-5 vs spread in games where spread was 2 or less points. UNLV won six of its last seven games- they're just 2-4 as a home favorite.

Colorado was just 9-24 on foul line in 72-51 (+5.5) loss at Arizona State Jan 25; ASU won last three series games by 9-1-21 points- they had big rivalry win Friday night, while Buffs won at USC Sunday, so they had two less days to prep for this. Pac-12 home teams are 19-14 vs spread in games where spread was less than six points. Buffs are won four of last five games, are 3-2 as home favorites since Dinwiddie got hurt.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Wednesday, February 19

Hot teams
-- Bobcats are 5-3 in last eight games (6-2 vs spread).
-- Cavaliers won/covered their last five games.
-- Toronto won last three games, is 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten. Bulls won four of their last five games.
-- Pacers won six of their last eight games.
-- New Orleans won four of its last five home games.
-- Phoenix won seven of last ten games. Celtics won four of their last six.
-- Utah won its last three games, by 5-7-5 points. Nets won four of their last six games.
-- Spurs won six of their last eight games.
-- Warriors are 5-1 vs spread in game following last six losses.
-- Houston won its last seven games, with three of seven on road.

Cold Teams
-- Pistons lost last four road games (1-3 vs spread).
-- Orlando hasn't won or covered in last 13 road games.
-- Atlanta lost its last six games (0-5-1 vs spread). Wizards lost five of their last six games.
-- Minnesota lost six of its last eight games.
-- Knicks lost six of their last seven games.
-- Trailblazers lost six of their last nine games.
-- Kings lost seven of last ten games, are 12-15 vs spread at home.
-- Lakers lost 22 of their last 27 games.

Series records
-- Bobcats are 2-0 vs Detroit this year, winning by 10-12.
-- Magic lost their last five games with Cleveland.
-- Raptors won four of last five games with Chicago.
-- Hawks are 18-3 in last 21 games vs Washington; three of their last four series wins came in OT.
-- Pacers won four of last five games with Minnesota.
-- Knicks lost eight of last ten games with New Orleans.
-- Celtics won three of last four games with Phoenix.
-- Jazz won eight of last ten games with Brooklyn.
-- Spurs lost 14 of last 18 games with Portland.
-- Warriors won three of last four games with Sacramento.
-- Lakers are 3-5 in their last eight games with Houston.

Totals
-- Five of last six Detroit games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Cleveland games stayed under.
-- Eight of last ten Chicago games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Atlanta-Washington games went over.
-- Over is 8-3 in last eleven Indiana-Minnesota games.
-- Nine of last twelve New York games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Boston games stayed under total; four of last five Phoenix games went over.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Brooklyn games.
-- Six of Spurs' last seven games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Golden State games went over.
-- 10 of last 13 Rocket-Laker games went over total.

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Utah +4 over Arizona
(System Record: 46-7, won last game)
Overall Record: 46-64-3

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Argentinos Juniors + San Lorenzo UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 527-18, won last 3 games and 2 pushes)
Overall Record: 527-451-77

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Basketball Crusher
Utah +4 over Arizona
(System Record: 46-7, won last game)
Overall Record: 46-64-3

Rest of the Plays
La Salle +7.5 over Dayton
Loyola Chicago +13 over Wichita St
Miami (FL) -3.5 over Notre Dame

 

[StackAddict]

Basketball Crusher
Utah +4 over Arizona
(System Record: 46-7, won last game)
Overall Record: 46-64-3

I have a question about these guys if anyone can help out ......
They tout TWO records .... One System ... One OVERALL
As I understand it they do not intend to lose 4 bets in a row .... Is that the system?
All bets fall into OVERALL record I think but what is the system?
Do they double down on wagers if they do lose one bet then so on until the 4th bet is lost then the system restarts or until they get a win then restart the system?
TIA to anyone who can shed some light