Vegas Sports Experts
10* Take N. Illinois (+9.5) over Ball State (NCAA Power Play)
8:00 PM EST
Northern Illinois
• 5-1 ATS when playing in the month of November the last 3 seasons
• 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points
• 5-0 ATS in road games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
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10* Take Toledo (+5) over Akron (NCAA Power Play)
8:00 PM EST
Akron
• 0-7 SU vs. Toledo since 1992
• 1-7 SU & ATS after having won 2 of the last 3 games
• 2-9 ATS coming off a win the last 3 seasons
10* Take N. Illinois (+9.5) over Ball State (NCAA Power Play)
8:00 PM EST
Northern Illinois
• 5-1 ATS when playing in the month of November the last 3 seasons
• 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points
• 5-0 ATS in road games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
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10* Take Toledo (+5) over Akron (NCAA Power Play)
8:00 PM EST
Akron
• 0-7 SU vs. Toledo since 1992
• 1-7 SU & ATS after having won 2 of the last 3 games
• 2-9 ATS coming off a win the last 3 seasons
Andre Gomes
Indiana vs Phoenix
NBA - 503 Phoenix Suns @ 504 Indiana Pacers
The Suns cruised in New Jersey yesterday by defeating the local Nets by 114-86, in a game which ended up being under the total posted, when this was a game to go over the total posted by about 20 points. What we have today is a line which is basically the same from yesterday, so we have value on the over.
Phoenix completely dominated yesterday’s game in the paint, with Amare and Shaq not giving any chance to the young frontcourt of the Nets. This will be a back to back game for the Suns and in physical terms, a letdown could be expected for today, however their win yesterday was so easy that the Suns were able to rest all their players. The player who spent more time on the court yesterday was Amare with 28 minutes. The team reached halftime with 65 points scored, while shooting more than 75% FG! Amazing!
For this game against the Pacers, the edge that I’ve referred on my picks on Phoenix yesterday remains, as the frontcourt of the Suns can’t be defended in normal conditions by the Pacers. Indiana’s best Center Nesterovic will be out and the Pacers will need to use their rookie Roy Hibbert on this position. We have seen yesterday what happened with the rookie Brook Lopez and for today the scenario will basically be the same.
On the other side, the Pacers are coming to this game with a lot of confidence. After all, they defeated the Celtics at home by 95-79, in a game where the team had an amazing ball movement with 20 assists and 12 turnovers and had a lead at one point of 25 points over the current champions.
Last season, both games between these two teams ended with a lot of points: 238 and 251 points and this team of the Pacers is 10-2 Over in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record. We have in here a game between two very confident teams and with ability to score a lot of points, so I’m taking the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 503/504 Over 201,5 @1.96 on Canbet
Indiana vs Phoenix
NBA - 503 Phoenix Suns @ 504 Indiana Pacers
The Suns cruised in New Jersey yesterday by defeating the local Nets by 114-86, in a game which ended up being under the total posted, when this was a game to go over the total posted by about 20 points. What we have today is a line which is basically the same from yesterday, so we have value on the over.
Phoenix completely dominated yesterday’s game in the paint, with Amare and Shaq not giving any chance to the young frontcourt of the Nets. This will be a back to back game for the Suns and in physical terms, a letdown could be expected for today, however their win yesterday was so easy that the Suns were able to rest all their players. The player who spent more time on the court yesterday was Amare with 28 minutes. The team reached halftime with 65 points scored, while shooting more than 75% FG! Amazing!
For this game against the Pacers, the edge that I’ve referred on my picks on Phoenix yesterday remains, as the frontcourt of the Suns can’t be defended in normal conditions by the Pacers. Indiana’s best Center Nesterovic will be out and the Pacers will need to use their rookie Roy Hibbert on this position. We have seen yesterday what happened with the rookie Brook Lopez and for today the scenario will basically be the same.
On the other side, the Pacers are coming to this game with a lot of confidence. After all, they defeated the Celtics at home by 95-79, in a game where the team had an amazing ball movement with 20 assists and 12 turnovers and had a lead at one point of 25 points over the current champions.
Last season, both games between these two teams ended with a lot of points: 238 and 251 points and this team of the Pacers is 10-2 Over in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record. We have in here a game between two very confident teams and with ability to score a lot of points, so I’m taking the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 503/504 Over 201,5 @1.96 on Canbet
Mr A
Toledo at Akron
Toledo's defeats were against Ball State, Northern Illinois, and Central Michigan, a much tougher schedule then Akron. Take the points. The Rockets have covered the spread in the last six meetings versus the Zips.
Toledo Rockets +6½
Northern Ill at Ball State
Northern Illinois has won seven of the last nine meetings and four of the last five in Indiana. Look for the Huskies potent defense to keep this battle close. Northern Illinois is 4-1 ATS in the last four meetings at Ball State
Northern Illinois Huskies +10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers -8
Utah Jazz -7
Los Angeles Lakers -14½
Memphis Grizzlies +3½
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Toledo at Akron
Toledo's defeats were against Ball State, Northern Illinois, and Central Michigan, a much tougher schedule then Akron. Take the points. The Rockets have covered the spread in the last six meetings versus the Zips.
Toledo Rockets +6½
Northern Ill at Ball State
Northern Illinois has won seven of the last nine meetings and four of the last five in Indiana. Look for the Huskies potent defense to keep this battle close. Northern Illinois is 4-1 ATS in the last four meetings at Ball State
Northern Illinois Huskies +10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers -8
Utah Jazz -7
Los Angeles Lakers -14½
Memphis Grizzlies +3½
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NBA POWER INDEX
Detroit even with Toronto*
Phoenix 2½ over Indiana*
New York* 1½ over Charlotte
Miami* ½ over Philadelphia
San Antonio 5½ over Minnesota*
Milwaukee* 2 over Washington
New Orleans* 10½ over Atlanta
Boston 10 over Oklahoma City*
Utah* 8 over Portland
Sacramento* 3½ over Memphis
Golden State* 2 over Denver
L.A. Lakers* 18 over L.A. Clippers
Detroit even with Toronto*
Phoenix 2½ over Indiana*
New York* 1½ over Charlotte
Miami* ½ over Philadelphia
San Antonio 5½ over Minnesota*
Milwaukee* 2 over Washington
New Orleans* 10½ over Atlanta
Boston 10 over Oklahoma City*
Utah* 8 over Portland
Sacramento* 3½ over Memphis
Golden State* 2 over Denver
L.A. Lakers* 18 over L.A. Clippers
John Ryan
Toledo vs. Akron (NCAAF) - Nov 5, 2008 8:00 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: 6.5/-105 Toledo Pick Title: Toledoa
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Toledo – AiS shows a 72% probability that Toledo will lose this game by 5 or fewer points. AiS also projects a 90% probability that Toledo will gain a MINIMUM of 200 yards passing. Note that Akron is just 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 39-9 ATS for 81% since 1997. Play against any team that is a good offensive team gaining 390 to 440 YPG and is now facing a poor offensive team gaining 280 to 330 YPG and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. Akron is in a very weak role noting they are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Conversely, Toledo in an exceptional role noting they are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992. Take Toledo.
Toledo vs. Akron (NCAAF) - Nov 5, 2008 8:00 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: 6.5/-105 Toledo Pick Title: Toledoa
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Toledo – AiS shows a 72% probability that Toledo will lose this game by 5 or fewer points. AiS also projects a 90% probability that Toledo will gain a MINIMUM of 200 yards passing. Note that Akron is just 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 39-9 ATS for 81% since 1997. Play against any team that is a good offensive team gaining 390 to 440 YPG and is now facing a poor offensive team gaining 280 to 330 YPG and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. Akron is in a very weak role noting they are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Conversely, Toledo in an exceptional role noting they are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992. Take Toledo.
Big Al's FREE Wednesday Night B-L-O-W-O-U-T Winner.
At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on San Antonio over Minnesota. The Spurs are an awful (for them) 0-3 to start the season, and I've talked often about how SuperManu Ginobili is one of the best, and most valuable players in the league -- right up there with Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant. It's strange, though, that the oddsmakers don't recognize that, and don't lower San Antonio's power rating the appropriate amount when he's sidelined. That, more than anything else, explains the Spurs poor 4-16 ATS run without the Argentine superstar on the court. Indeed, San Antonio has been able to overcome injuries to Duncan or Tony Parker, but not Ginobili. However, I'm NOT going to go against the Spurs on Wednesday Night. They'll be taking on a very beatable team in the T-Wolves, and this game is a step down in class after playing Phoenix, Portland and Dallas to open the season. The Spurs actually only played one bad game -- the one last night -- and could've defeated Portland had Michael Finley's 8-foot sideline jumper found the bottom of the net. Look for San Antonio's championship mettle to be the difference tonight. Lay the small number with the Spurs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on San Antonio over Minnesota. The Spurs are an awful (for them) 0-3 to start the season, and I've talked often about how SuperManu Ginobili is one of the best, and most valuable players in the league -- right up there with Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant. It's strange, though, that the oddsmakers don't recognize that, and don't lower San Antonio's power rating the appropriate amount when he's sidelined. That, more than anything else, explains the Spurs poor 4-16 ATS run without the Argentine superstar on the court. Indeed, San Antonio has been able to overcome injuries to Duncan or Tony Parker, but not Ginobili. However, I'm NOT going to go against the Spurs on Wednesday Night. They'll be taking on a very beatable team in the T-Wolves, and this game is a step down in class after playing Phoenix, Portland and Dallas to open the season. The Spurs actually only played one bad game -- the one last night -- and could've defeated Portland had Michael Finley's 8-foot sideline jumper found the bottom of the net. Look for San Antonio's championship mettle to be the difference tonight. Lay the small number with the Spurs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
