NBA 2014-15 Props Outlook
By Tony Mejia
With the NBA regular season set to tip, time to get your futures in is running out. Publicist Jimmy Shapiro has dropped all of Bovada.lv's many available options this week, so I'll strap on my Halloween costume early -- there's a Santa cap involved -- and supply a bunch of treats into your goodie bags. You didn't even have to dress up and ring my doorbell.
2014-15 Rookie of the Year
Favorites: Jabari Parker (MIL) 5/2, Andrew Wiggins (MIN) 15/4, Nerlens Noel (PHI) 11/2, Julius Randle (LAL) 7/1, Doug McDermott (CHI) 9/1
Solid options: Marcus Smart (BOS) 12/1, Elfrid Payton (ORL) 15/1
Top longshots: Shabazz Napier (MIA) 30/1, Cleanthony Early (NYK) 30/1, Kostas Papanikolaou (HOU) 50/1, Adreian Payne (ATL) 55/1, K.J. McDaniels (PHI) 65/1, Mitch McGary (OKC) 65/1
Bank on: Parker is the choice here. He'll get the most opportunities to be the primary catalyst, which helped last year's winner, Michael Carter-Williams, run away from the rest of a fairly weak crop. Philadelphia's Noel would be my second choice, but he'll have ups and downs with foul trouble that could derail him. Boston's Smart and Orlando's Payton could pay huge dividends since both should get long leashes and will defend from Day 1.
2014-15 Coach of the Year
Favorites: Gregg Popovich (SA) 3/1, David Blatt (CLE) 9/2, Tom Thibodeau (CHI) 7/1, Doc Rivers (LAC) 10/1, Steve Kerr (GSW) 10/1
Solid options: Jeff Hornacek (PHX) 12/1, Rick Carlisle (DAL) 15/1, Dwane Casey (TOR) 15/1, Steve Clifford (CHA) 20/1, Terry Stotts (POR) 20/1
Top longshots: Erik Spoelstra (MIA) 35/1, Monty Williams (NO) 35/1, Lionel Hollins (BKN) 35/1, Randy Wittman (WAS) 45/1, David Joerger (MEM) 100/1
Bank on: I'd definitely fade Pop and Blatt since expectations are so high. Thibodeau and Rivers coach the teams I'm projecting to finish with the top records in their respective conferences, so your choice should be one of those two. I don't believe the Heat will fall flat, so backing Spo to rally the troops at a handsome rate wouldn't be a bad investment. Wittman can also win that Southeast Division if injury-prone key pieces Nene and Bradley Beal can hang around. To his credit, he's improved as a strategist over the past two seasons.
2014-15 Points per game leader
Favorites: Kevin Durant (OKC) 3/2, Carmelo Anthony (NY) 2/1, LeBron James (CLE) 11/4, James Harden (HOU) 13/2, Russell Westbrook (OAK) 12/1
Solid options: Kobe Bryant (LAL) 25/1, Blake Griffin (LAC) 25/1
Top longshots: Derrick Rose (CHI) 40/1, LaMarcus Aldridge (POR) 40/1, Anthony Davis (NOP) 40/1, DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) 60/1, Jabari Parker (MIL) 250/1
Bank on: Melo. He'll only double your money, but with Durant likely requiring an adjustment period upon his return from foot surgery and Westbrook sure to see a dip when that occurs, Anthony is a heavy favorite. James is going to share the rock in an attempt to make the game easier for his new teammates, while Harden will have to feed Dwight Howard to keep him happy. Every name listed in the other column above has a great shot at a top-three spot, but I don't see anybody getting to 30 per game. Bryant is most likely to make a determined run at it, because of course he is. The rookie at 250-to-1? Fun. It's highly unlikely, but he can put the ball in the basket.
2014-15 Rebounds per game leader
Favorites: Andre Drummond (DET) 9/5, DeAndre Jordan (LAC) 2/1, Dwight Howard (HOU) 4/1, Kevin Love (CLE) 5/1, DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) 14/1
Solid options: Nikola Vucevic (ORL) 16/1, Joakim Noah (CHI) 20/1
Top longshots: Omer Asik (NOP) 30/1, LaMarcus Aldridge (POR) 30/1, Anthony Davis (NOP) 30/1, Al Jefferson (CHA) 35/1, Blake Griffin (LAC) 50/1
Bank on: Drummond and Howard may be two of the NBA's worst free-throw shooters, but they're beasts on the boards, physically imposing their will on a nightly basis. Howard looks 100 percent and stronger than ever, so since he has less glass-eating competition than Drummond on his own team, we'll ride with him. Vucevic replaced him in Orlando, just got extended and really likes to get after it, so he'd be a strong play if you want to take a shot. Elite rebounders Asik and Davis will affect one another's production in New Orleans, which is why the odds on them appear so attractive.
2014-15 Assists per game leader
Favorites: Chris Paul (LAC) 2/3, Rajon Rondo (BOS) 2/1, John Wall (WAS) 8/1
Solid options: Ricky Rubio (MIN) 14/1, Ty Lawson (DEN) 16/1
Top longshots: Kyle Lowry (TOR) 40/1, Deron Williams (BKN) 40/1, Jrue Holiday (NOP) 40/1, Derrick Rose (CHI) 40/1, Michael Carter-Williams (PHI) 50/1
Bank on: Paul is the favorite for a reason. He'll take the assists title if he stays healthy, but we'll give you a couple of guys with more favorable odds to get behind. Lawson won his battle with Brian Shaw to play at an increased tempo last year and should do his best to keep teammates happy by pushing the pace and distributing. Lowry is another point guard coming into his own that could challenge if he continues improving and becoming more efficient.
Props to Bet
Will Kobe score 50 points in any single regular-season game? Yes +1000 (10/1), No -2000 (1/20)
Bank on: Sure, take a shot. It's probably on his mental to-do list. Wishful thinking? Not necessarily. I've heard he's done it before.
Will Rajon Rondo get traded during the 2014-2015 season? Yes -175 (7/4), No +125 (5/4)
Bank on: He'll be a free agent at season's end and is rushing back to try and make Boston's opener. Odds are he'll be wearing multiple uniforms since a suitor will likely pounce with an offer Danny Ainge signs off on well before the trade deadline.
Will Josh Smith get traded during the 2014-2015 season? Yes EVEN (1/1), No -140 (5/7)
Bank on: He's due $14 million annually through 2017. Unless Stan Van Gundy is willing to take on someone else's problem, odds are he'll try and rein in J-Smoove's shot selection and live with a headache capable of defending at a high level. He stays.
How many Cavaliers will be starters in the 2015 All Star Game? Over 2.5 -250 (2/5), Under 2.5 +175 (7/4)
Bank on: LeBron and Love are locks, sure to team with Carmelo Anthony in the East frontcourt. The backcourt is where this will be decided. I'd take a shot that fans vote for Rose, Wade and Wall enough to make Kyrie Irving sweat this out. Irving finished behind Wade last year with over 860,000 votes, more than double the output of Wall. Rose should be the leading vote-getter at guard if he stays healthy.
Who will start more games? Anderson Varejao (CLE) -160 (5/8), Tristan Thompson (CLE) +120 (6/5)
Bank on: Varejao played in 65 games last season, but participated in just 81 of 246 possible games from 2010-13. He'll start Game 1, but my money is on Thompson making more starts when all is said and done.
Will any Spurs player average 30 regular-season minutes per game or more? Yes -200 (1/2), No +150 (3/2)
Bank on: Keep in mind that nobody did it last season, since Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard were all over 29, but under 29.5. Still, the likelihood is that the 22-year-old Leonard emerges as an even larger piece, topping the 30-minute mark. Parker might even get back over the hurdle, since last year marked his lowest mpg clip since his rookie season. Duncan has only topped 30 once in the last four years.
Which splash brother will have the highest regular-season 3-PT shooting pct. during the 2014-2015 Regular Season? Stephen Curry -130 (10/13), Klay Thompson EVEN (1/1)
Bank on: Wouldn't touch this one. Curry has been tops between the duo three years running, but last season, the gap narrowed to .424-.417. With Kerr on board, this looks like a coin flip worth avoiding.
Will the Brooklyn Nets be sold during the 2014-2015 Regular Season? Yes +400 (4/1) No -600 (1/6)
Bank on: The Nets bled money last season, losing $131 million more than any other team according to Grantland, but Mikhail Prokhorov knows he's in an amazing market at a time where NBA franchises have never been more valuable. It will truly take an offer he can't refuse for him to sell. Ride no.
Will Kevin Garnett play in NBA game in the 2015-2016 Season? Yes +125 (5/4), No -175 (4/7)
Bank on: This is it for the future Hall of Famer we used to call "the Kid." Now 38 years old and in his 20th year of service, he's playing out the final year of a contract paying $12 million and is too proud to return for a fraction of that even if he did have another season in him. No is the rightful favorite, well worth the juice.
Will Andrew Wiggins participate in the 2015 Slam Dunk contest? Yes +200 (2/1), No -300 (1/3)
Bank on: The hope is that he will, but even at 2-to-1, there are too many moving parts to like this at all.
Will Wiggins win the 2015 Slam Dunk Contest? Yes +600 (6/1), No -1000 (1/6)
Bank on: The Magic 8 ball says, "better not tell you now." Piece of junk.
How many regular season games will Derrick Rose play? Over/Under: 68.5
Bank on: He's already playing back-to-backs, so I don't see him taking too many nights off. The Bulls have 19 sets of games on consecutive days, so even if he misses half of those, he'd still top this number. Add in a game or two for an ankle sprain, consider the fact his head coach is Tom Thibodeau and I like him getting in at least 70. Wouldn't touch this, but the optimistic over is my hopeful call here.
How many regular season games will Dwyane Wade play? Over/Under: 70.5
Bank on: Miami has the fewest back-to-backs, playing just 16, and while we will probably some Wade "maintenance" this season, he's a proud guy looking for a special bounce-back season for obvious reasons. While few who have watched him closely the past few years would be comfortable going over, I'll leave this one alone by saying I wouldn't feel confident going under either.
How many regular season games will Andrew Bogut play? Over/Under: 70.5
Bank on: He's looked spry in the preseason, but he's 7-feet tall and never shies away from contact. He started 67 times in 2013-14, but hasn't played more than 70 regular-season games since 2007-08. Considering he's only done it twice in nine seasons and turns 30 years old on Nov. 28, the under is a lock.
Will Minnesota rookie Zach LaVine participate in the 2015 Slam Dunk contest? Yes -140 (5/7), No EVEN (1/1)
Bank on: The young UCLA product will have a better shot if Wiggins passes, but I'm with the 8 ball here. "Cannot predict now." Seriously? "Ask again later."
Which young Sacramento wing will have the higher regular-season scoring average? Ben McLemore EVEN (1/1), Nik Stauskas -140 (5/7)
Bank on: McLemore averaged just 8.8 points as a rookie, but scored in double-figures in his final five games, dropping a career-high 31 points on the Suns in the regular-season finale. He and Stauskas may end up splitting minutes, but I think he'll nip the Canadian rookie long-range threat to help cash a neat prop.
