Service Plays Wednesday 10/1/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
Oakland Athletics -103 over KC Royals - pending
Pittsburgh Pirates +100 over SF Giants
(System Record: 105-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 105-73

Rest of the Plays
Pittsburgh Pirates + SF Giants UNDER 6.5

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Estudiantes LP + Independiente UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 640-22, won last game)
Overall Record: 640-533-96

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

OMEGA SPORTS PICKS

1* SF Giants -113 (10/1/14)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Primetime Insiders

3* Giants
1* Over Giants/Pirates

San Fransisco vs Pittsburgh

Our system does have a play on the Giants tomorrow and a lean on the over of 6. There is a huge pitching advantage in this matchup per our system. Bumgarner is slightly underrated per our system and has a very impressive 9 K per 9 innings. The Pirates are not a very high strikeout team which should bode well for the Pirates but Bumgarner is still very impressive. Bumgarner is all about three pitches with fastball (43%), slider (35%), and curveball (14%). Bumgarner’s best pitch is by far his fastball but he is going to have to mix it up as the Pirates are the 3rd best fastball hitting team in baseball. Bumgarner should throw his slider frequently as the Pirates are one of the worst slider hitting teams in the nation.

On the other mound is Volquez who is very overrated and might have some difficulty tomorrow against the Giants. Volquez is pitching at home but is on a different level than Bumgarner. Volquez is all about his fastball (55%), curveball (25%), and changeup (18%). Volquez’s best pitch is his curveball but the Giants destroy curveballs and is going to have to throw more change ups to get through the game.

Overall our system loves the Giants on Wednesday night and a slight play on the over as our system thinks the total should be closer to 7 or 7.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

National League Wild Card: Giants at Pirates

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates (+104, 6.5)

The San Francisco Giants got a chance to line up their starting pitching in anticipation of a one-game wild card, and Madison Bumgarner is ready to go. The Pittsburgh Pirates, who host the Giants in the wild-card game on Wednesday, fought until the final day of the regular season for the National League Central crown and did not get a chance to line up their top starter. The Pirates went 51-30 at home in the regular season and won the 2013 NL wild card game.

San Francisco won the World Series in the last two even-numbered seasons but is taking its first crack at advancing via the one-game playoff and finished with three wins in their last four games after falling out of the NL West race. Pittsburgh elected to start Gerrit Cole on Sunday in an effort to chase down the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central and got 12 strikeouts in seven innings from the right-hander, but ended up losing the game and finishing two games shy of the Cardinals in the Division. The winner of the wild-card game gets to head to Washington to face the NL-best Nationals on Friday.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Pirates opened -104 but odds have moved to +104. The total opened at 6 and has risen a half-run to 6.5.

INJURY REPORT: Giants - LF Michael Morse (Questionable, oblique). Pirates - C Russell Martin (Questionable, hamstring), 1B Ike Davis (Questionable, flu), C Chris Stewart (Questionable, hand).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-60s with wind blowing in from center-right field at 3 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Giants (-184), Pirates (-180)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Pirates exhibited an extreme home/road dichotomy this season (28 net game difference) as they were 51-30 in Pittsburgh, but just 37-44 on the road. The Giants are sending lefty Madison Bumgarner to the mound and one of the few weaknesses that Pittsburgh had at home this season came against left-handed pitchers as the Pirates averaged just 3.5 runs per nine-innings with a .254 team batting average versus southpaws, compared to 4.7 runs and a .274 team batting average at home versus right-handers." Covers Expert Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Back-to-back playoff appearances for Andrew McCutchen and the Pittsburgh Pirates. They play host to the battle-tested Giants squad, with the Pirates taking four of six from the Giants this season they have to feel good going into this game Wednesday night. So far it is all Giants action as a road favorite getting 71 percent and 74 percent respectively on the money line and run line." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04)

Bumgarner is unquestionably to ace of the San Francisco staff with Matt Cain injured and Tim Lincecum taking a step back from his Cy Young heights of past seasons. Bumgarner had a string of nine straight starts allowing three or fewer earned runs come to an end in his final start of the regular season, when he yielded three home runs and was charged with four runs in 7 1/3 innings at the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 25-year-old matched his shortest start of 2014 at home against Pittsburgh on July 28, when he was reached for five runs in four innings.

Volquez is coming into the start hot after back-to-back scoreless outings against Milwaukee and Atlanta. The Dominican Republic native struggles with his control from time to time but struck out 10 while issuing only one walk over seven innings at the Braves on Thursday. Volquez is facing the Giants for the first time this season and is 2-2 with a 5.72 ERA in 11 career starts against San Francisco.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 1-4 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Bumgarner's last four starts vs. Pirates.
* Giants are 1-5 in their last six road games.
* Pirates are 4-0 in their last four games following an off day.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 53 percent of wagers are backing the Pirates.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wild Card Matchup

Giants at Pirates – Wednesday, 8:00 PM EST

San Francisco: 88-74 overall, 43-38 on road
Pittsburgh: 88-74 overall, 51-30 at home

Probable Pitchers:
SF: Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA)
PIT: Undecided

Season series: The Pirates went 4-2 in six matchups against the Giants, winning each series. The first three matchups at PNC Park in early May were all decided by one run, which included an 11-10 extra-innings victory by the Giants. The Pirates walked off past the Giants the next night in a 2-1 triumph on a Starling Marte triple in which he scored on an error. At AT&T Park two months later, the Pirates dominated the Giants in the first two victories by outscoring San Francisco, 8-1. The Giants avoided the sweep in the finale in a back-and-forth affair as both teams blew leads in a 7-5 San Francisco victory.

Season recap: San Francisco began the season on fire with a 43-21 record, which was capped off by a 15-3 run. The Giants stumbled to a 10-22 mark heading into the All-Star break, pretty much falling behind the Dodgers for good in the NL West race. The second half saw the Giants play around .500 baseball, but a key 6-1 stretch in early September, along with Milwaukee melting down, gave San Francisco the advantage in the NL Wild Card. The Pirates started slowly, putting together a 10-18 mark through 28 games. A 22-11 run by Pittsburgh through June and early July got the Bucs back on track, while the Pirates went 17-4 in September to clinch home-field in Wednesday’s Wild Card matchup.

Up next: The Nationals are waiting in the wings, which would make for some interesting travel if the Giants were to win on Wednesday. Washington dominated San Francisco this season, winning five of seven matchups, including three of four at AT&T Park in June. The Pirates took three of four from the Nationals at home in their first series, but Washington swept Pittsburgh in D.C. in September, which included a pair of walk-off victories.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bochy confirms Bumgarner to start Wednesday
Andrew Avery

To the surprise of nobody, San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy confirmed that staff ace Madison Bumgarner will start at the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League wildcard game Wednesday.

The southpaw was stellar all season long for the Giants, posting an 18-10 record and 2.98 ERA this season.

Bumgarner did, however, have one of his worst outings of the season against the Pirates. He lasted four innings, giving up five earned runs on six hits en route to picking up the loss in a 5-0 win for the Bucs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wild Card Matchup

Giants at Pirates – Wednesday, 8:00 PM EST

San Francisco: 88-74 overall, 43-38 on road
Pittsburgh: 88-74 overall, 51-30 at home

Probable Pitchers:
SF: Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA)
PIT: Undecided

Season series: The Pirates went 4-2 in six matchups against the Giants, winning each series. The first three matchups at PNC Park in early May were all decided by one run, which included an 11-10 extra-innings victory by the Giants. The Pirates walked off past the Giants the next night in a 2-1 triumph on a Starling Marte triple in which he scored on an error. At AT&T Park two months later, the Pirates dominated the Giants in the first two victories by outscoring San Francisco, 8-1. The Giants avoided the sweep in the finale in a back-and-forth affair as both teams blew leads in a 7-5 San Francisco victory.

Season recap: San Francisco began the season on fire with a 43-21 record, which was capped off by a 15-3 run. The Giants stumbled to a 10-22 mark heading into the All-Star break, pretty much falling behind the Dodgers for good in the NL West race. The second half saw the Giants play around .500 baseball, but a key 6-1 stretch in early September, along with Milwaukee melting down, gave San Francisco the advantage in the NL Wild Card. The Pirates started slowly, putting together a 10-18 mark through 28 games. A 22-11 run by Pittsburgh through June and early July got the Bucs back on track, while the Pirates went 17-4 in September to clinch home-field in Wednesday’s Wild Card matchup.

Up next: The Nationals are waiting in the wings, which would make for some interesting travel if the Giants were to win on Wednesday. Washington dominated San Francisco this season, winning five of seven matchups, including three of four at AT&T Park in June. The Pirates took three of four from the Nationals at home in their first series, but Washington swept Pittsburgh in D.C. in September, which included a pair of walk-off victories.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2014 Playoff Outlook
By Bruce Marshall

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Sometimes, "addition by subtraction" really is meaningful in pro sports. And we suggest the injury to 3B Pedro Alvarez has in fact made the Pittsburgh Pirates (11/2) more of a postseason threat. It is no coincidence that the Pirates won 17 of 21 down the stretch with Alvarez sidelined and with do-everything Josh Harrison handling duties effectively at the corner. The Bucs have star power with Andrew McCutchen and a staff with plenty of momentum, as Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez have been two of the NL's hottest starters since the All-Star break. The Pirates just missed winning the NL Central, so they must go the wild card route, but they have postseason experience now after advancing from the wild card to the NLDS last season.

We suspect the Bucs are more of a threat than their wild card foe, the San Francisco Giants (7/1) , who have been playing sub-.500 ball (45-53) since early June, a far cry from their World Series winners of 2010 & '12 that hit stride following the All-Star break. The Giants must go on the road to PNC Park for Wednesday's wild card game.

We look forward to the rematch of last year's NLCS, this year a round sooner, between the Los Angeles Dodgers (2/1) and St. Louis Cardinals (7/1) . Interestingly, normally unhittable Dodger ace Clayton Kershaw was anything but in playoffs vs. the Cards last season. But even with Kershaw in untouchable form, the Dodgers performed in an uneven manner much of the campaign, barely getting above .500 at home until late in the season (though the Blue owns MLB's best road mark at 49-32), and there are depth problems in the rotation beyond Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Mercurial OF Yasiel Puig has also failed to smooth the many rough spots in his game that were exploited by the Redbirds last October. Considering the Dodgers' inside-out home-road pattern this season, perhaps it's a break for St. Louis to open the NLDS on the road.

If Adam Wainwright (1.62 ERA in five September starts) can outduel Kershaw in the opener, the momentum of the series shifts completely in St. Louis' direction. No team has fared as well in the postseason lately as the Cardinals, who can still manufacture runs effectively and own proven October forces in Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina. Mike Matheny also has more bullpen options than Don Mattingly, though closer Trevor Rosenthal did blow six saves this season.

But if it's not the Pirates emerging from the in the NL, we expect it will be the Washington Nationals (2/1), who like the Bucs also have had a recent taste of the postseason (2012), though they would rather not recall blowing a 6-0 lead in the deciding Game 5 vs. the Cards in the NLDS. There is more experience and depth on the roster than in 2012, though we wonder about the offense beyond reliable contact hitters CF Denard Span and 3B Ryan Zimmerman. Manager Matt Williams was also forced to realign his bullpen, where the Nats fortunately have several options and recently anointed Drew Storen the new closer after Rafael Soriano began to wobble in August. The pressure is also on flamethrower Stephen Strasburg, who missed the playoffs due to arm problems two years ago. But Jordan Zimmerman is certainly in top form after no-hitting the Marlins in Sunday's regular-season finale. And the Nats earned home-field edge in the NL mainly because of MLB's best ERA, the NL's third highest-scoring offense, and arguably best defense of any contender.

It would not surprise us to see a Beltway World Series. But if the Nats have to hook the Pirates in the NLDS, we might eventually be treated to a rematch of memorable 1971 and '79 Fall Classics between the Bucs and O's instead.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dodgers to face old nemesis in NLDS
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

LOS ANGELES -- Those guys again?

Eleven months after they were eliminated in six games in the 2013 National League Championship Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers will face the St. Louis Cardinals in another playoff series. The Cardinals clinched the NL Central division title on the final day of the regular season Sunday and will travel to Los Angeles for an NL Division Series beginning Friday.

"They've been a thorn for us the last couple years," Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said, recalling a loss to the Cardinals that eliminated the Dodgers from wild-card contention a few years ago as well as last year's NLCS. "The thing about St. Louis -- you know they play hard. They're smart. They play the game the right way and they've got Yadi."

Mattingly was referring to Cardinals C Yadier Molina. He is a powerful influence on the Cardinals' pitching staff, Mattingly said.

"There's a confidence with Yadi," Mattingly said. "I think he's part of the preparation you have to do when you're playing them."

The Dodgers will be facing the Cardinals with a more potent lineup this season. A year ago, Matt Kemp was not available for the postseason. This year, he has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball since the All-Star break, having finally recovered from shoulder and ankle surgeries the past two falls.

Kemp hit a two-run home run in Sunday's 10-5 victory over the Colorado Rockies in the regular-season finale. It was his ninth home run in September (the most in the majors) and 17th since the All-Star break (behind only Toronto's Jose Bautista and Houston's Chris Carter).

The Dodgers also have an added element in their offense -- speed. Dee Gordon made the post-season roster only as a pinch-runner last fall. This year, he led the majors with 64 stolen bases while batting .289 as the Dodgers' primary leadoff hitter.

"Yeah -- but we'll find out," Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw said. "I think we've got everybody pretty much healthy. As far as offensively, everybody's swinging the bats pretty well right now so we're going in on a little bit of a hot streak. That's good."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pirates host Giants

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (88-74) at PITTSBURGH PIRATES (88-74)

First pitch: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line and Total: San Francisco -105, Pittsburgh -105, Total: 6

One game is all that separates the Giants and Pirates from moving on to the NLDS to face the Nationals, and the two 88-win clubs will meet Wednesday at PNC Park to determine which club extends its season.

San Francisco had a tough task in the NL West competing with the Dodgers, who have the highest salary in the majors, playing to their potential, but the Giants easily grabbed a Wild Card spot despite going 4-6 over their final 10 games. They did nearly equally as well on offense (665 runs, 12th in league) and in pitching (3.50 ERA, 10th in league) while finishing off the season on a high note with a 9-3 victory over San Diego. C Buster Posey (.311 BA) has been tremendous all year long and comes into this game after going 9-for-25 (.360) with a homer, 3 RBI and three runs over his final seven games.

Pittsburgh once again earned its way into the postseason after finishing with a 17-6 kick since Sept. 5, in which pitching reigned supreme by allowing a meager 1.7 runs per game in the victories. The Pirates had no trouble getting on base this year with the fifth-best average (.259) and third-best on-base percentage (.330) in the league. OF Andrew McCutchen (.314) has put together another phenomenal season and comes into this contest with an eight-game hitting streak in which he is 10-for-22 (.455) with two doubles, two home runs, 8 RBI and eight runs. The pitching matchup for this contest will peg LHP Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) of the Giants against RHP Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04 ERA) of the host Pirates.

San Francisco was solid on the road this season, going 43-38 (.531), but could have a lot of trouble against a Pittsburgh team that was 51-30 (.630) in the confines of its home ballpark. The Pirates have an 11-8 edge in this matchup over the past three seasons while going 6-3 at home and coming away victorious in 4-of-6 games this year. The Giants will be missing two of their veteran players for this one, as both 2B Marco Scutaro (back) and OF Angel Pagan (back) are out for the season, while Pittsburgh does not have any offensive players injured.

Madison Bumgarner has been extremely consistent over the past four years with at least 13 wins, 200 innings and an ERA below 3.40 each season. In 2014, he has struck out a career-high 9.1 batters per nine innings while posting a career-low walk-rate (1.8 BB/9) which has led to the most wins he’s had in a single season (18). The lanky left-hander has helped his team earn a win in six of his past seven starts, but did poorly his last time out against the Dodgers when he allowed four runs on six hits (3 HR) in 7.1 frames while striking out five (0 walks) in a losing effort. Over his four career starts against the Pirates, Bumgarner is 1-3 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, and did not pitch well in his one outing against them this season (4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 K's, 2 BB's).

Both 2B Neil Walker (3-for-9) and OF Josh Harrison (4-for-5, 1 HR) have done well in this matchup over limited at-bats while stud OF Andrew McCutchen is a mere 2-for-10 with a couple of strikeouts against Bumgarner. The Giants’ bullpen has been outstanding this season, going 32-14 (.696) with a 3.01 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while converting 46-of-64 (72%) save chances. Santiago Casilla (1.70 ERA, 19 saves) has a low strikeout-rate (6.9 K/9) for a closer and is 19-for-23 (83%) in his save opportunities on the year.

Edinson Volquez was a welcome surprise for the Pirates’ rotation this season, as he recorded his most wins (13) since 2008 and had a career-best ERA of 3.04. To put into perspective how much of an improvement this was, consider that Volquez has had an ERA of 4.30 or worse in four of the past five seasons while walking at least 4.1 batters per nine innings each year. In 2014, he has allowed a career-low 3.3 BB/9, but may have benefited from some luck too, as batters hit a woeful .263 BABIP against him. Volquez has been torched by the Giants in his 11 career starts, going 2-2 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while striking out an impressive 9.5 batters per nine innings.

Both 1B Brandon Belt (8-for-18, 1 HR, 5 RBI) and 3B Pablo Sandoval (6-for-13, 3 doubles, 3 RBI) have done well in this matchup, while SS Brandon Crawford (3-for-20, 7 K's) has done poorly, and OF Hunter Pence (7-for-36, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 16 K's) is all-or-nothing. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been great this year, going 33-25 (.569) with a 3.28 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, but converting only 48-of-72 (67%) save chances. Closer Mark Melancon (1.90 ERA, 33 saves) has struck out one batter per inning while showing amazing control (1.4 BB/9). He has surrendered just two homers all year in his 71 frames (0.25 HR/9).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Volquez to face postseason demons
Justin Hartling

It has been four years since Edinson Volquez made his lone postseason start and it is a day he would like to forget. While pitching for the Cincinnati Reds, Volquez gave up four runs in 1.2 innings and walked away with a 21.60 ERA.

The Dominican rightie has a solid 13-7 record and 3.04 ERA during the regular season.

The Pirates are small +104 home dogs Wednesday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bumgarner inconsistent during postseason
Justin Hartling

There are few pitchers at the age of 25 that has as much postseason experience as Madison Bumgarner. The leftie has already made seven postseason appearances while going 3-2, but proving to be inconsistent.

Bumgarner is sporting a solid 3.79 ERA, but that includes a 2.0 inning relief effort in 2010. Three appearances saw Bumgarner give up zero runs, while the other four appearances have seen him abused for 27 hits an 15 runs.

San Fran is currently -113 faves against the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dodgers' Gordon cleared for NLDS opener
The Sports Xchange

Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Dee Gordon is a go for Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Friday against the St. Louis Cardinals after sitting out the final game of the regular season with a hip injury.

Gordon was cleared to play in the series opener in Los Angeles after making it through a workout with the team on Tuesday.

He left Saturday night's game against the Colorado Rockies in the first inning after grounding out to shortstop in his first at-bat. A similar injury forced him to miss a game earlier in the month.

In 148 regular-season games, Gordon batted .289 and had 64 stolen bases, a NL-best 12 triples and 92 runs. He was named to his first NL All-Star team in July.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Giants visit Pirates Wednesday in NL Wild Card
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox


SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (88-74) at PITTSBURGH PIRATES (88-74)


National League Wild Card Game
First pitch: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: San Francisco -105, Pittsburgh -105, Total: 6

One game is all that separates the Giants and Pirates from moving on to the NLDS to face the Nationals, and the two 88-win clubs will meet Wednesday at PNC Park to determine which club extends its season.

San Francisco had a tough task in the NL West competing with the Dodgers, who have the highest salary in the majors, playing to their potential, but the Giants easily grabbed a Wild Card spot despite going 4-6 over their final 10 games. They did nearly equally as well on offense (665 runs, 12th in league) and in pitching (3.50 ERA, 10th in league) while finishing off the season on a high note with a 9-3 victory over San Diego. C Buster Posey (.311 BA) has been tremendous all year long and comes into this game after going 9-for-25 (.360) with a homer, 3 RBI and three runs over his final seven games. Pittsburgh once again earned its way into the postseason after finishing with a 17-6 kick since Sept. 5, in which pitching reigned supreme by allowing a meager 1.7 runs per game in the victories. The Pirates had no trouble getting on base this year with the fifth-best average (.259) and third-best on-base percentage (.330) in the league. OF Andrew McCutchen (.314) has put together another phenomenal season and comes into this contest with an eight-game hitting streak in which he is 10-for-22 (.455) with two doubles, two home runs, 8 RBI and eight runs. The pitching matchup for this contest will peg LHP Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) of the Giants against RHP Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04 ERA) of the host Pirates. San Francisco was solid on the road this season, going 43-38 (.531), but could have a lot of trouble against a Pittsburgh team that was 51-30 (.630) in the confines of its home ballpark. The Pirates have an 11-8 edge in this matchup over the past three seasons while going 6-3 at home and coming away victorious in 4-of-6 games this year. The Giants will be missing two of their veteran players for this one, as both 2B Marco Scutaro (back) and OF Angel Pagan (back) are out for the season, while Pittsburgh does not have any offensive players injured.

Madison Bumgarner has been extremely consistent over the past four years with at least 13 wins, 200 innings and an ERA below 3.40 each season. In 2014, he has struck out a career-high 9.1 batters per nine innings while posting a career-low walk-rate (1.8 BB/9) which has led to the most wins he’s had in a single season (18). The lanky left-hander has helped his team earn a win in six of his past seven starts, but did poorly his last time out against the Dodgers when he allowed four runs on six hits (3 HR) in 7.1 frames while striking out five (0 walks) in a losing effort. Over his four career starts against the Pirates, Bumgarner is 1-3 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, and did not pitch well in his one outing against them this season (4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 K's, 2 BB's). Both 2B Neil Walker (3-for-9) and OF Josh Harrison (4-for-5, 1 HR) have done well in this matchup over limited at-bats while stud OF Andrew McCutchen is a mere 2-for-10 with a couple of strikeouts against Bumgarner. The Giants’ bullpen has been outstanding this season, going 32-14 (.696) with a 3.01 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while converting 46-of-64 (72%) save chances. Santiago Casilla (1.70 ERA, 19 saves) has a low strikeout-rate (6.9 K/9) for a closer and is 19-for-23 (83%) in his save opportunities on the year.

Edinson Volquez was a welcome surprise for the Pirates’ rotation this season, as he recorded his most wins (13) since 2008 and had a career-best ERA of 3.04. To put into perspective how much of an improvement this was, consider that Volquez has had an ERA of 4.30 or worse in four of the past five seasons while walking at least 4.1 batters per nine innings each year. In 2014, he has allowed a career-low 3.3 BB/9, but may have benefited from some luck too, as batters hit a woeful .263 BABIP against him. Volquez has been torched by the Giants in his 11 career starts, going 2-2 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while striking out an impressive 9.5 batters per nine innings. Both 1B Brandon Belt (8-for-18, 1 HR, 5 RBI) and 3B Pablo Sandoval (6-for-13, 3 doubles, 3 RBI) have done well in this matchup, while SS Brandon Crawford (3-for-20, 7 K's) has done poorly, and OF Hunter Pence (7-for-36, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 16 K's) is all-or-nothing. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been great this year, going 33-25 (.569) with a 3.28 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, but converting only 48-of-72 (67%) save chances. Closer Mark Melancon (1.90 ERA, 33 saves) has struck out one batter per inning while showing amazing control (1.4 BB/9). He has surrendered just two homers all year in his 71 frames (0.25 HR/9).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NL Wild Card Odds and Pick
By: Micah Roberts

After going through a 20-year drought of not making the playoffs, the Pittsburgh Pirates will make their second consecutive postseason appearance as they welcome the San Francisco Giants for Wednesday's NL Wild Card game. Pittsburgh comes in having won 17 of their last 23 while the Giants will be looking to repeat performances from the past two even-numbered years and win the World Series. The Washington Nationals await the winner in Game 1 of the NLDS on Friday.

San Francisco Giants (88-74) at Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74)
Starters: Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) vs. Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04)
South Point line: Giants -113, 6 OV -115

Season series: Pirates 4-2, 2-1 home and away, and there were some barn-burners.

Line Movement: The Pirates opened -105 at the South Point sports book on Monday and quickly got bet up to -107, but in one big swoop they made the Giants the -110 favorite due to a combination of wagers and following the market. A few hours later, more Giants money came in and pushed the line to
-113. That exact type of movement occurred at the Golden Nugget as well.

Why we love the Giants: This team scraps and does all the little things right. They're just a flat-out good ball club. They're loaded with a locker room full of high-character guys like Hunter Pence and Buster Posey. Manager Bruce Bochy knows how to get the most out of his team and his instincts have been more right than wrong during the playoffs. They also seem to like playing on Wednesday's this season with an 18-7 record for +11 units. On the road, their 43-38 record returned +8.3 units.

Why we hate the Giants: Bumgarner is terrific and he might be good enough to elevate them into the NLDS, but the rotation is nowhere close to as strong as it was in their championship seasons. They also don't run a lot; only 56 stolen bases on the season, the second fewest behind Baltimore (44). However, the bottom three in steals -- including the St. Louis Cardinals -- are all in the playoffs. The Giants are also missing key players such as Angel Pagan and Michael Morse. Matt Cain is out as well, but he never got on track all season when he was healthy. The Giants were 34-37 against winning teams.

Why we like the Pirates: This team is actually very similar to the successful Giants World Series models. They're a scrappy bunch with a deep bullpen, deep rotation of quality arms, and they're great at the plate in key situations. Almost everyone in their lineup takes pitches, culminating in a third-place finish in on-base percentage (.330) behind the Dodgers and Tigers. We also love them at home, where they were 51-30 for +12.9 units of profit.

Why we hate the Pirates: They have several good starters, but nobody like Bumgarner, a true ace with big game experience under his belt. While Francisco Liriano and Volquez are both on incredible runs heading into the playoffs, they're not playoff aces -- yet. The Pirates took advantage of a weak September schedule playing several last-place teams, but against winning teams over the entire season they were only 33-39 which translated to -6.4 units for bettors

How has Volquez fared against Giants? He has a 2-2 record with a 5.72 ERA in 11 starts, a span in which his clubs went 3-8, but he didn't face the Giants in 2014. However, they haven't seen this version of Volquez, who is pitching better than ever. He's allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts and three or fewer in his last 12, which was good enough for manager Clint Hurdle to hand him the ball instead of Liriano on short rest. The Giants were 58-44 against right-handers this season for a +9.5 unit return.

How has Bumgarner fared against Pittsburgh? He's 1-3 with a 3.24 ERA in four starts all-time, including July 28 at San Francisco when he was shut out 5-0 by Vance Worley. He was a -155 favorite in that game where the Bucs scored four in the first and followed with a Josh Harrison homer in the second. All four of his starts against Pittsburgh have stayed UNDER the total. Coming in, the Giants have won six of his past seven starts overall. The Pirates were 20-13 against lefties this season for a +3.5 unit return.

Key Player for the Giants: Brandon Belt
When the Giants' bats were collectively smoking the ball in April, Belt was a huge contributor with six homers and it looked like he might be headed for an All-Star invite, but that enthusiasm was short lived as he's been injured most of the season. However, he collected six hits during a four-game hitting streak to end the season and if he continues getting back into form, he could be a definite game changer.

Key Player for the Pirates: Russell Martin
He's been hobbled by a hamstring injury, and not coincidentally, the Pirates' losses over the weekend to the Reds were without Martin. Of all the players brought in to help the Pirates make the playoffs over the past two seasons, none can say they have had as a big of an impact as Martin. He's not only helped with his leadership and handling of pitchers, but also with his bat. How many catchers in baseball this season can say they're on base 40 percent of the time? MVP candidate Buster Posey can't even boast that. There's only one, and it's Martin.

The Linemakers' lean: This is a big moment for Volquez and our hope is that he pitches better than his last playoff start which came as a member of the Reds back in 2010. He just happened to be on the wrong end of a Roy Halladay no-hitter. His recent play suggests he's not going to be hit upon too easily, and Bumgarner shouldn't allow too many runs either. The top play here is the game staying UNDER with a secondary play on the Pirates to win.

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 10/1/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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#947 SAN FRANCISCO @ #948 PITTSBURGH
TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Pirates +105, Total: 6.5 -115

The San Francisco Giants got a chance to line up their starting pitching in anticipation of a one-game wild card, and Madison Bumgarner is ready to go. The Pittsburgh Pirates, who host the Giants in the National League wild-card game Wednesday, fought until the final day of the regular season for the National League Central crown and did not get a chance to line up their top starter. The Pirates went 51-30 at home in the regular season - tied with St. Louis and Washington for best in the NL - and won the 2013 NL wild card game.

San Francisco won the World Series in the last two even-numbered seasons but is taking its first crack at advancing via the one-game playoff and finished with three wins in its last four games after falling out of the NL West race. Pittsburgh elected to start Gerrit Cole on Sunday in an effort to chase down the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central and got 12 strikeouts in seven innings from the right-hander, but ended up losing and finishing two games shy of the Cardinals in the division. The winner of the wild-card game heads to Washington to face the NL-best Nationals on Friday.

PITCHING MATCHUP
•Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA, WHIP: 1.091) - Bumgarner is unquestionably the ace of the San Francisco staff with Matt Cain injured and Tim Lincecum taking a step back from his Cy Young heights of past seasons. Bumgarner had a string of nine straight starts allowing three or fewer earned runs come to an end in his final start of the regular season, when he yielded three home runs and was charged with four runs in 7 1/3 innings at the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 25-year-old matched his shortest start of 2014 at home against Pittsburgh on July 28, when he was reached for five runs in four innings.

--BUMGARNER is 11-0 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUMGARNER 5.7, OPPONENT 1.5.

--BUMGARNER is 11-0 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUMGARNER 5.7, OPPONENT 1.5.

--BUMGARNER is 12-2 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUMGARNER 5.1, OPPONENT 2.2.

•Pirates RH Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04 ERA, WHIP: 1.230) - Volquez is coming into the start hot after back-to-back scoreless outings against Milwaukee and Atlanta. The Dominican Republic native struggles with his control from time to time but struck out 10 while issuing only one walk over seven innings at the Braves on Thursday. Volquez is facing the Giants for the first time this season and is 2-2 with a 5.72 ERA in 11 career starts against San Francisco.

--VOLQUEZ is 18-9 OVER (+9.1 Units) versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOLQUEZ 5.0, OPPONENT 5.1.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Pirates took four of the six regular-season meetings, including two of three at home.... San Francisco C Buster Posey and 3B Pablo Sandoval are a combined 11-for-22 with five doubles against Volquez.... Pittsburgh C Russell Martin went 3-for-4 with two home runs in last year’s wild-card game.... The Giants are 30-19 after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span, and 18-7 when playing on Wednesday this season.... Pittsburgh is 21-4 in home games when playing on Wednesday, and 31-17 after six or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons.

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•KEY STATS
--SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 (+13.4 Units) against the money line after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.1, OPPONENT 2.7.

--PITTSBURGH is 28-39 (-14.0 Units) against the money line versus National League teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.0, OPPONENT 4.2.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--Games Over The Last 3 Seasons: PITTSBURGH is 11-8 (+3.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons. 9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Over= -0.4 Units, Under= -1.5 Units.

--Games This Season: PITTSBURGH is 4-2 (+2.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season. 3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season Under= +0.8 Units.

--All Games at PITTSBURGH Over The Last 3 Seasons: PITTSBURGH is 6-3 (+2.6 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons. 6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Over= +3.8 Units.

--Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Giants are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh.
--Giants are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Pittsburgh.
--Under is 4-0 in Bumgarners last 4 starts vs. Pirates.

•RECENT TRENDS
--SF is 21-8 in their last 29 playoff games.
--SF is 8-2 in their last 10 playoff road games.
--SF is 5-0 in their last 5 versus National League Central.

--PIT is 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog.
--PIT is 3-8 in their L11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
--Under is 4-1 in Volquezs L5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings.
(36-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 2*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +102.6
The average score in these games was: Team 4.7, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +1.9)

The situation's record this season is: (5-3, +2.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-12, +10.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (75-57, +20.5 units).
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[BuzzKill]

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