STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/29/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 1/29/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Wednesday's Notebook
•Home side won last ten St. Joseph's-Dayton games; Hawks lost its last six games in this gym by average of 8 points. Flyers lost last three games, are 0-2 in Atlantic 10 home games, losing to St Louis/VCU, two best teams in league. St Joe's won four of last five games, is 1-2 on conference road, losing at Massachusetts by 4, Richmond by 15 with win at George Mason. Atlantic 10 home favorites of 5 or less points are 7-4 versus spread.
•LaSalle won last five games with George Washington; winning by 4-9 in last two visits to Smith Center; Explorers (-3) beat Colonials 76-72 Jan 9, making 9-20 on arc- GW was 3-14. Colonials are 4-0 since first meeting, beating Rhode Island by 13, VCU by 10 at home. Atlantic 10 home favorites of 5 or less points are 7-4 versus spread. LaSalle lost its last two games, losing to VCU in OT in its last game; favorites covered four of their five league games.
•St Bonaventure won four of last six games with Massachusetts, winning two of last three played here at Reilly Center; Bonnies' last three series wins were by total of 10 points. UMass split its two A-10 road contests, with games decided by a total of four points. Atlantic 10 home teams are 10-8 versus spread in games where spread was 5 or less points. Underdogs covered five of Bonnies' six A-10 games; they're 2-1 at home, beating Richmond/LaSalle.
•Road teams won four of last six Western Michigan-Buffalo games, with Broncos winning two of last three here at Alumni Arena. WMU is 2-1 on road in Mid-American Conference, losing by 19 at Eastern Michigan, winning at Miami/Kent. Buffalo is 4-2 in MAC, 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 21-10-11 at home. MAC single digit home favorites are 3-12 versus spread this year. Broncos are turning it over 26.4% of time in conference games, 2nd-worst rate in league.
•Valparaiso was 3-0 versus Green Bay LY, winning by 12-1-19 points; they won three of last four games, are 2-1 at home in Horizon League play, losing to Wright State by 17, beating UIC/Milwaukee. Horizon home teams are 3-12 versus spread if number was 5 or less points. Green Bay won its last 11 games, is 7-0 in conference, winning road games by 7-10-5 points- they lost last two visits to Athletics-Recreation Center, by 3-12 points.
•Saint Louis is 6-3 in last nine games with Richmond, holding Spiders to 48 ppg in wins by 14-5 the last two years. Billikens won first five A-10 games, are 1-1 as home favorites, winning by 6-22 points. Richmond won last four games, but is on road for first time in 18 days; they split first two road games, winning in OT at Fordham, lost at St Bonaventure by 14. Atlantic 10 home favorites of 8+ points are 4-6 versus spread.
•Ole Miss is 4-0 in South East Conference since Henderson came back from his suspension, with three of four wins by 11+ points; Rebels have road wins at South Carolina/Vanderbilt- they won last three games with Tennessee, by 5-18-6 points. Volunteers are 2-1 at home in SEC, beating Auburn by 11, Arkansas by 7, losing to Texas A&M. SEC home favorites of 8+ points are 9-5 versus spread. Rebels' Summers is an amazing 33-60 (55%) from arc this year.
•Syracuse is unbeaten, #2 in country, 6-0 in Atlantic Coast Conference, but they wouldn't be human if they weren't looking ahead to Duke game Saturday, when the dome will be packed. Orange are 3-0 as road favorites, winning its away games by 20-10-12 points. Wake Forest won three of last four games, is 3-0 at home in ACC, beating North Carolina/NC State/Notre Dame. ACC home underdogs are 4-9 versus spread. Deacons are 3-2 as an ACC underdog.
•Florida State won four of last five games versus NC State, winning four of last five visits to Raleigh; Seminoles lost last two road games, at Virginia by 12, Duke by 22- they're turning ball over 22% of time in Atlantic Coast Conference games, but making 43.1% from arc, #1 in league. Wolfpack beat Maryland and Georgia Tech in last two home games, after losing to Pittsburgh/Virginia in its first two. ACC home teams are 4-13 versus spread if spread was 4 or less points.
•Kansas won four in row, 17 of last 18 games with Iowa State, beating Cyclones 77-70 (+2.5) in Ames Jan 13, despite 24 turnovers (-16) and ISU outscoring them 22-12 on line. Jayhawks are 1-1-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 26-2-10 points. State lost three of its last four games, losing by 5 at Oklahoma, 10 at Texas. Big 12 home favorites of 7+ points are 4-7 versus spread. Kansas has best eFG% in league, despite fact they turn ball over 21.6% of time, worst in conference.
•Arizona won its last seven games with Stanford, winning last three here at Maples Pavilion by 2-9-13 points; Wildcats are 7-0 in Pac-12, 2-0 as road favorites, with wins by 4 at UCLA, 20 at USC on foreign soil. Stanford won four of its last five games after winning in OT at USC Sunday; Cardinal is 2-1 at home, losing to California, sweeping Washington schools. Arizona is forcing a turnover 22.9% of time. Pac-12 home underdogs of 5+ points are 6-4.
•California won six of last eight games with Arizona State, but lost by 4 in Tempe LY; Sun Devils lost last four visits to Berkeley, by 10-16-4-21 points. ASU lost by 15 at UCLA, 23 at USC in its last two road games- favorites covered five of their last six games. Pac-12 home favorites of 5+ points are 14-8 versus spread. Bears got swept in Los Angeles last weekend, is 2-0 as home favorite, beating Washington by 26, Washington State by 21.
•Belmont (-7.5) beat Morehead State 80-66 Thursday, making 8-14 from arc, outscoring Eagles 24-13 on line; Bruins are 3-1 on Ohio Valley Conference road, with only loss at 11 at Eastern Kentucky. Morehead needed OT to beat 2-21 Tennessee State Saturday; Eagles are 0-3 versus Belmont, losing by a point here at Ellis T Johnson Arena LY, despite Belmont making only 11-21 from line. OVC home sides are 8-5 versus spread when number was 3 or less points.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- SAINT LOUIS is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAINT LOUIS 68.2, OPPONENT 50.7.
-- ALABAMA is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ALABAMA 58.4, OPPONENT 57.8.
-- ST BONAVENTURE is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.
The average score was ST BONAVENTURE 38.0, OPPONENT 33.3.
-- OHIO ST is 18-2 UNDER (+15.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OHIO ST 29.5, OPPONENT 27.6.
-- SEAN MILLER is 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was MILLER 71.2, OPPONENT 69.5.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- NORTHWESTERN is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts this season.
The average score was NORTHWESTERN 57.6, OPPONENT 74.8.
-- BRADLEY is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was BRADLEY 59.7, OPPONENT 68.6.
-- IOWA ST is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) in road games versus foul prone teams - called for 21 or more fouls/game after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was IOWA ST 34.3, OPPONENT 32.3.
-- RUTGERS is 21-2 UNDER (+18.8 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) since 1997.
The average score was RUTGERS 28.8, OPPONENT 27.1.
-- PATRICK CHAMBERS is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents as the coach of PENN ST.
The average score was CHAMBERS 65.8, OPPONENT 69.1.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (SETON HALL) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), playing only their 3rd game in a week, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%).
(111-20 since 1997.) (84.7%, +65.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -228.8
The average score in these games was: Team 72.3, Opponent 64.3 (Average point differential = +8)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2, -0.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-5, +11.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (37-7, +20.4 units).
-- Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (IOWA ST) an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG), in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after allowing 75 points or more 3 straight games.
(38-9 since 1997.) (80.9%, +28.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (40-7)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.3
The average score in these games was: Team 81.5, Opponent 68.7 (Average point differential = +12.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 24 (52.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 6 or more points versus the first half line (N ILLINOIS) - terrible shooting team - shooting <=39% on the season against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%), after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher.
(26-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.7%, +22.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 29.4, Opponent 33.4 (Average first half point differential = -4)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (64-37).
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Wednesday's Match-ups
#729 MASSACHUSETTS @ #730 ST BONAVENTURE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, None - Line: St Bonaventure -1, Total: N/A) - Fresh off an impressive victory, No.19 Massachusetts will face its first Atlantic 10 rematch when it plays at St. Bonaventure on Wednesday. The Minutemen rebounded from their first conference loss at Richmond, after which the fans stormed the court, to defeat Fordham by 38 points at home. "When you've got 9,500 people in the building, you want to press and get the game moving," head coach Derek Kellogg told reporters after the Fordham game. "You're coming off a loss, you haven't played in a couple days and you're kind of stagnant. I thought that (press defense) gave us the energy we needed to at least say, 'We're here.'"
Since dropping a hard-fought game Jan.11 at Massachusetts, the Bonnies have won just once in four attempts, including a two-point defeat on a buzzer-beater Saturday at Duquesne. "It's a tough game, it's on the road, it's the Atlantic 10, we understood that it was going to be difficult," head coach Mark Schmidt told the media following the game, which ended on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. "They had the ball last and made a good shot at the end." In the first meeting with the Minutemen, the Bonnies led 68-64 with two minutes remaining before five points by reserve Trey Davis and four three throws gave Massachusetts the victory.
•ABOUT MASSACHUSETTS (17-2 SU, 12-7-0 ATS, 4-1 Atlantic 10): The fact that Richmond fans stormed the court certainly wasn't lost on senior guard Chaz Williams, who lingered before heading to the locker room. "Before, if we lose, the fans just leave. Now it's a big deal," he told reporters. "We're not just playing against the other team, it's the community and all the staff. I wanted to get that feeling, let it soak in my body, and understand every time we do lose that something can happen." Williams had 18 points and eight assists against Fordham and remains in the top five in the NCAA with 7.4 assists per game.
•ABOUT ST. BONAVENTURE (12-8 SU, 11-7-0 ATS, 2-4 Atlantic 10): After shooting just 24.6 percent (15-of-61) from beyond the arc in their previous three games, the Bonnies set season-highs by shooting 52.4 percent and making 11 3-pointers in the loss to Duquesne. Matthew Wright and Charlon Kloof did most of the damage, as the duo combined to go 9-of-15 and score 45 points. Wright leads the Bonnies, who shoot 31.9 percent on 3-pointers as a team, with 15.5 points per game and Kloof puts up 12.8 points, 3.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists.
•PREGAME NOTES: The earlier win snapped a two-game losing streak in the series for the Minutemen, who hold a 40-21 advantage overall.... Williams was the only starter to play more than 18 minutes in the win over Fordham, which featured 13 points and nine assists from Davis.... The Bonnies have lost 26 straight to ranked teams and their last win came over No.23 Temple in 2000.... The Minutemen are 7-0 against the spread in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.... The Bonnies are 8-20 versus the spread in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
-- In 1000 simulated games, ST BONAVENTURE covered the spread 515 times, while MASSACHUSETTS covered the spread 455 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ST BONAVENTURE won the game straight up 545 times, while MASSACHUSETTS won 420 times. In 1000 simulated games, ST BONAVENTURE covered the first half line 526 times, while MASSACHUSETTS covered the first half line 474 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ST BONAVENTURE is 14-12 against the spread versus MASSACHUSETTS since 1997.
--MASSACHUSETTS is 14-12 straight up against ST BONAVENTURE since 1997.
--6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ST BONAVENTURE is 14-12 versus the first half line when playing against MASSACHUSETTS since 1997.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Minutemen are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Minutemen are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in St. Bonaventure.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in St. Bonaventure.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MASS is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.
--MASS is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 7-2 in MASS last 9 overall.
--SBON is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--SBON is 32-12 ATS in their last 44 home games.
--Under is 8-2 in SBON last 10 Wed. games.
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#737 PENN ST @ #738 OHIO ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Ohio State -13, Total: N/A) - Ohio State snapped out of a stunning four-game losing streak and managed to maintain its spot in the Top 25 with a win over Illinois but still needs to put in a lot of work to get back to the top of the Big Ten. The 23rd-ranked Buckeyes will attempt to get back to .500 in the conference when they host Penn State on Wednesday. The Nittany Lions are sitting in last place but picked up their first conference win last week.
Ohio State won its first 15 games before an overtime loss at Michigan State began a downward spiral that included losses at Minnesota and Nebraska in which it managed an average of 57.5 points. The Buckeyes finally got their offense going in the second half against Illinois, putting up 38 points in the period en route to a 62-55 triumph Thursday. “Our problem is not solved, we have a long way to go,” coach Thad Matta told reporters after the win, “but the time off will be a great time to recollect, reflect and get healthy.”
•ABOUT PENN STATE (10-10 SU, 8-8-1 ATS, 1-6 Big Ten): Defense had been the problem for the Nittany Lions, who surrendered an average of 74.3 points in dropping their first six Big Ten games. Penn State lost at the buzzer at Purdue on Jan. 18 and broke through against the Cornhuskers by putting forth a better effort on the defensive end, including a full-court press that provided a key turnover and transition dunk during the second half of the 58-54 triumph. “We need to make winning plays,” coach Patrick Chambers told reporters. “We need to get more 'attitude' plays and do the little things to help our team win.”
•ABOUT OHIO STATE (16-4 SU, 9-10-0 ATS, 3-4 Big Ten): The Buckeyes had six days off to figure out what went right in the Illinois game and how to carry that over to a rough stretch that includes trips to Wisconsin and Iowa next week. Ohio State is in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense but had slacked on that end during the losing streak before putting it together against the Illini. The Buckeyes forced a season-high 15 turnovers in that contest and got credit from Matta for their work on that end. “We did not play perfect, but I loved our energy on defense,” he said. “We played extremely hard on defense and got back to rotating.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Ohio State has won 80 straight home games against unranked opponents.... Penn State leading scorer D.J. Newbill (17.2) has scored at least 16 points in four straight games after totaling seven in the previous two contests.... The Buckeyes have not lost to the Nittany Lions (17-0) since Matta took over as head coach in 2004-05.... The Nittany Lions are 8-1 versus the spread after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers over the last two seasons.... Ohio State is 13-5 against the spread off a win against a conference rival over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the spread 545 times, while OHIO ST covered the spread 426 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OHIO ST won the game straight up 797 times, while PENN ST won 181 times. In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the first half line 615 times, while OHIO ST covered the first half line 385 times. *EDGE against first half line =PENN ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OHIO ST is 17-13 against the spread versus PENN ST since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 24-6 straight up against PENN ST since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 13-13 versus the first half line when playing against PENN ST since 1997.
--14 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Ohio St.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PSU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big Ten.
--PSU is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Over is 9-3 in PSU last 12 Wed. games.
--OSU is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Wed. games.
--OSU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Under is 5-0-1 in OSU last 6 Wednesday games.
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#759 MEMPHIS @ #760 C FLORIDA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Memphis -8.5, Total: N/A) - Memphis coach Josh Pastner knows that his team's shooting is prone to slumps and the Tigers' defense isn't always going to be at the top of its game. But there is one element of basketball from which Pastner always demands consistency. "If we have the right energy, we have a great opportunity to perform at a high level. The bottom line is our energy," said Pastner, whose 22nd-ranked Tigers visit Central Florida on Wednesday.
"That is just our game plan," Memphis forward Shaq Goodwin added. "If anyone knows Coach Pastner, you know he is strictly about energy, so that is the first thing we talk about and the last thing we talk about every day." The Tigers' energy was high as they won their third straight game Sunday, 80-58, against South Florida. Central Florida, meanwhile, has lost four straight games entering this American Athletic Conference tilt.
•ABOUT MEMPHIS (15-4, 10-6-0 ATS, 5-2 AAC): The Tigers' three straight wins have come by 23, 23 and 22 points, and they have scored at least 80 points in each victory after falling shy of 80 in eight of their previous nine contests. Senior guard Joe Jackson (31.4) is the only player who sees more than 30 minutes of action for Memphis and averages team highs in points (14.1), assists (4.2) and free throws made (86). Jackson is a poor 3-point shooter at 24.5 percent, but fellow senior Michael Dixon Jr. connects at a 38 percent rate from long range and has made multiple 3-pointers in each of his last five games.
•ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (9-8, 2-9-0 ATS, 1-5 AAC): All eight of the Knights' losses have come by double figures, including last Thursday's 69-51 defeat to No. 15 Cincinnati - Central Florida's first of three straight games against ranked opponents. Central Florida has many areas where it can improve, but free-throw shooting has to be at the top of the list, as the Knights shot 6-of-17 against the Bearcats and average just 59.5 percent as a team. Isaiah Sykes leads Central Florida in points (15.1), rebounds (6.4) and assists (3.5), although he has made less than half of his free throws.
•PREGAME NOTES: Goodwin has shot at least 50 percent from the field in eight of his last 10 games.... Despite standing 6-6, Sykes does not have a blocked shot in 486 minutes this season.... The Knights' stretch of three consecutive ranked opponents ends Saturday with a road matchup against No. 7 Louisville, the defending NCAA champion.... The Tigers are 11-2 against the spread in road games after having won five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons.... UCF is 0-6 versus the spread against conference opponents this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UCF covered the spread 554 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 446 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS won the game straight up 676 times, while UCF won 305 times. In 1000 simulated games, UCF covered the first half line 557 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 406 times. *EDGE against first half line =UCF.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MEMPHIS is 9-3 against the spread versus UCF since 1997.
--MEMPHIS is 11-1 straight up against UCF since 1997.
--8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MEMPHIS is 7-5 versus the first half line when playing against UCF since 1997.
--8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Tigers are 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Central Florida.
--Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MEM is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--MEM is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 Wednesday games.
--UCF is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--UCF is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
--Over is 6-2-1 in UCF last 9 home games.
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#779 RICHMOND @ #780 ST LOUIS
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, FSN Midwest - Line: Saint Louis -8, Total: N/A) - Saint Louis will try to maintain its best record through 20 games in 20 years when it hosts Richmond on Wednesday in a pivotal Atlantic-10 Conference matchup. The No. 21 Billikens have won 12 straight since a Dec. 1 loss to No. 22 Memphis but the Billikens haven’t faced a ranked team during their run and have experienced some close calls against some marginal opponents, namely a two-point victory against Valparaiso and a one-point victory against Rhode Island. Saint Louis is coming off a four-point win against Duquesne after rallying from two points down with just under a minute remaining.
The Billikens are winning the close ones because they have a defense that can ratchet up in a pinch. Opponents average 58 points against Saint Louis, seventh fewest in Division I, and shooting 38.6 percent from the floor, 18th-lowest. The Spiders come in riding a four-game winning streak, most recently posting a three-point victory last Wednesday over then-No. 12 Massachusetts.
•ABOUT RICHMOND (14-6 SU, 8-10-1 ATS, 4-1 A-10): Kendall Anthony was named A-10 Player of the Week on Monday after averaging 20 points in victories against Massachusetts and St. Joseph’s. The 5-8 guard has reached double figures in scoring in 12 consecutive games and is averaging 16.6 points in conference play. Anthony gives the Spiders a tough backcourt combination along with Cedrick Lindsay, who continues to lead the Spiders in scoring at 18.5 points, despite not bettering that mark in the last three games.
•ABOUT SAINT LOUIS (18-2 SU, 7-10-0 ATS, 5-0 A-10): Dwayne Evans should be itching to get back on the floor after the team’s leading scorer fouled out against Duquesne and finished with five points in a season-low 17 minutes, which is 10 points and 12 minutes below his season average. Evans, a 6-6 forward, did not make a field goal against Duquesne after combining for 25 in the previous three games. His lack of buckets was particularly noteworthy because teammate Jordair Jett distributed 11 assists in the victory, the most by a Saint Louis player since 1991.
•PREGAME NOTES: Saint Louis G Mike McCall Jr. has 28 steals compared to 18 turnovers this season.... Jett, who shot 62.1 percent from the free throw line through his first three years at Saint Louis, is shooting 61.5 this season.... Richmond has held the opposition to 64 points or fewer in 11 of the last 14 games and 14 of 20 overall this season.... The Spiders are 5-17 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% over the last two seasons.... The Billikens are 13-4 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS covered the spread 492 times, while RICHMOND covered the spread 484 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS won the game straight up 720 times, while RICHMOND won 253 times. In 1000 simulated games, RICHMOND covered the first half line 531 times, while SAINT LOUIS covered the first half line 469 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--RICHMOND is 5-4 against the spread versus SAINT LOUIS since 1997.
--SAINT LOUIS is 6-4 straight up against RICHMOND since 1997.
--6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SAINT LOUIS is 7-3 versus the first half line when playing against RICHMOND since 1997.
--6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--RICH is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
--RICH 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 5-2 in RICH last 7 Wednesday games.
--SLU is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games.
--SLU is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 vs. Atlantic 10.
--Under is 8-1 in SLU last 9 vs. Atlantic 10.
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#785 SYRACUSE @ #786 WAKE FOREST
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Syracuse -10, Total: N/A) - No. 2 Syracuse has proven throughout the season that it can win -- both at home and on the road -- but Wednesday's visit to Wake Forest should present a particularly challenging obstacle for the Orange's hopes at remaining undefeated. "We know going to Wake Forest is obviously very difficult," Orange coach Jim Boeheim said, via Syracuse.com. "They're very tough in their place. They haven't lost at home and they're obviously a very good basketball team." Indeed, the Demon Deacons are a perfect 12-0 at Joel Coliseum, including wins this month against North Carolina, North Carolina State and Notre Dame.
What makes Wake Forest's home record even more impressive is the fact that the team relies heavily on seven sophomores, including leading scorer Codi Miller-McIntyre and top rebounder Devin Thomas. "They're comfortable at home," coach Jeff Bzdelik said. "We have a young basketball team. They feed off the energy. We've got great fans here at Wake Forest." Syracuse, which is looking to begin 20-0 for just the second time in school history, improved to 4-0 on the road with Saturday's win at Miami.
•ABOUT SYRACUSE (19-0, 10-4-1 ATS, 6-0 ACC): Orange leading scorer C.J. Fair (16.6) has played 159 of a possible 160 minutes over the last four games while freshman point guard Tyler Ennis isn't far behind at 151. Ennis' assist-to-turnover ratio is approaching 4-to-1, thanks in large part to the sharpshooting of Trevor Cooney (41.6 percent from 3-point range), who has made multiple 3s in nine straight games. Athletic forward Jerami Grant has been terrific this season, averaging 12.7 points and 6.6 boards, but the sophomore knows his limits as he has only attempted five 3-pointers, making none.
•ABOUT WAKE FOREST (14-6, 9-7-0 ATS, 4-3 ACC): The Demon Deacons have won three of four following a stretch in which they lost three of four -- all by double digits -- sandwiched around a home victory against North Carolina. Thomas is the leading rebounder in the ACC at 8.5 per game, but the 6-9 forward has not reached double figures in boards since four days before Christmas. Travis McKie (10.2 points) has really struggled over his last six games, shooting 7-of-10 against Virginia Tech last week but only 6-of-29 in the other five games since the win over the Tar Heels.
•PREGAME NOTES: The only other time Syracuse has won 20 straight games to begin the season was in 2011-12. The Orange have never started 21-0.... Boeheim was "disappointed" in his bench play against Miami, as the Orange reserves totaled four points - all by C Baye-Moussa Keita.... Syracuse won the only prior matchup between the schools back in 2001.... The Orange are 6-0 against the spread versus good foul drawing teams - attempting more than 25 free throws/game this season.... The Demon Deacons are 7-0 versus the spread when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) after 15 or more games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WAKE FOREST covered the spread 643 times, while SYRACUSE covered the spread 332 times. *EDGE against the spread =WAKE FOREST. In 1000 simulated games, SYRACUSE won the game straight up 649 times, while WAKE FOREST won 319 times. In 1000 simulated games, WAKE FOREST covered the first half line 646 times, while SYRACUSE covered the first half line 317 times. *EDGE against first half line =WAKE FOREST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SYRACUSE is 1-0 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST since 1997.
--SYRACUSE is 1-0 straight up against WAKE FOREST since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WAKE FOREST is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against SYRACUSE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SYR is 16-7 is in their last 23 Wed. games.
--SYR is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Under is 5-1 in SYR last 6 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--WAKE is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.
--Under is 10-4 in WAKE last 14 overall.
--Under is 10-3 in WAKE last 13 Wed. games.
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#789 IOWA ST @ #790 KANSAS
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Kansas -9, Total: N/A) - While Kansas' Andrew Wiggins attempts to live up to the tremendous hype which preceded his freshman season, the 6-8 guard doesn't have to prove anything to Iowa State. The No. 7 Jayhawks try for a season sweep as they host the No. 18 Cyclones on Wednesday and hope Wiggins can duplicate or better his performance in the first meeting, when he recorded 17 points and 19 rebounds in a 77-70 victory on Jan. 13. The Thornhill, Ontario, native scored a career-high 27 points in Kansas' 91-69 win at Texas Christian on Saturday, and continues to turn into the dominating player everyone expects him to be -- an NBA lottery pick in June.
"He can defer a little bit and he can kind of get lost, but he never got lost (Saturday)," Kansas coach Bill Self told reporters about Wiggins. "He was able to put his handprint all over the possessions and create opportunities for himself and others. I thought he played the way he should play every game." While Kansas cruises along as the only undefeated team in Big 12 play, Iowa State snapped a three-game losing streak-- after winning its first 14 games -- with an 81-75 victory over Kansas State on Saturday. "Guys put those losses behind us,'' Cyclones coach Fred Hoiberg told reporters. "They wanted to come out and win in the worst way."
•ABOUT IOWA STATE (15-3 SU, 9-7-0 ATS, 3-3 Big 12): The Cyclones boast the No. 7 offense in the nation at 84.8 points per game, and are second in assists at 18.2, while their 36.9 points in the paint are second in the Big 12. Senior forward Melvin Ejim leads Iowa State in scoring (17.9 points) and adds 7.3 rebounds per game while senior guard DeAndre Kane averages 16.3 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.8 assists, but is 6-for-24 from the field in his last two games. "I think he's rushing it a little bit," Hoiberg told reporters of Kane. "He's a great finisher and he's been showing that all year. But he's struggling with that a little bit right now."
•ABOUT KANSAS (15-4 SU, 9-9-1 ATS, 6-0 Big 12): While the Jayhawks appear to be steamrolling toward their 10th straight regular-season conference title, extending a school record, Wiggins' supporting cast is also playing at a high level -- with two more freshmen at the forefront. Joel Embiid, a 7-0 center from Cameroon, averages 11.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.8 blocks -- including 17 rejections in the last four games -- while guard Wayne Selden Jr. adds 9.9 points and 2.5 assists. “We’re not stepping back,” Selden told the Kansas City Star. “We’re not resting. We know we have to keep pushing forward. Six-and-oh is a good accomplishment, but it can always be better.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Iowa State senior G Bubu Palo was in uniform for the first time this season Saturday, but did not play.... The Cyclones are 4-1 against ranked opponents this season, improving Hoiberg's mark in such games to 9-20.... Kansas has won 17 of the last 18 meetings, with Iowa State's 72-64 victory on Jan. 28, 2012 in Ames, Iowa, the lone Cyclones' victory during that span.... The Cyclones are 12-3 against the spread versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season over the last three seasons.... The Jayhawks are 6-0 against the spread versus good passing teams, averaging more than 16 assists/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the spread 675 times, while KANSAS covered the spread 288 times. *EDGE against the spread =IOWA ST. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS won the game straight up 561 times, while IOWA ST won 409 times. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the first half line 628 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 328 times. *EDGE against first half line =IOWA ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA ST is 20-14 against the spread versus KANSAS since 1997.
--KANSAS is 27-8 straight up against IOWA ST since 1997.
--16 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--KANSAS is 20-13 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA ST since 1997.
--14 of 26 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Kansas.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ISU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Over is 19-7 in ISU last 26 vs. Big 12.
--Over is 35-15-1 in ISU last 51 overall.
--KU is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Wed. games.
--KU is 14-2-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big 12.
--Under is 8-3-1 in KU last 12 Wed. games.
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#791 NORTHWESTERN @ #792 WISCONSIN
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Wisconsin -17, Total: N/A) - The Big Ten has offered up its share of surprises this season and two teams right in the middle of the upsets have been Northwestern and No. 13 Wisconsin. The Badgers will try to avoid becoming the latest victim when they host the Wildcats on Wednesday night. Wisconsin had its 17-game winning streak to start the season wiped out by a three-point loss to unranked Indiana two weeks ago — the first of three straight losses by the Badgers — but the Hoosiers didn’t have long to enjoy the win as they were knocked off by Northwestern four days later.
Wisconsin should have some comfort in knowing it blew out the Wildcats, 76-49, in the conference opener four weeks ago, its seventh consecutive win against Northwestern. That game belonged to Wisconsin freshman forward Nigel Hayes, who established season highs in points (19), rebounds (six), field goals (eight) and field goal attempts (12). Northwestern 7-foot center Alex Olah gave the Badgers similar problems with his size, scoring a career-high 23 points on 10-for-14 shooting, though he’s just 5-for-24 from the floor in the last three games.
•ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (10-11 SU, 7-13-0 ATS, 3-5 Big Ten): The Wildcats are one of the lowest scoring teams in the nation at 61.4 points. Drew Crawford needs to perform like a fifth-year senior and not the one who’s shooting lower (40.7 percent) than what he shot as a freshman during the 2009-10 season (44.7). JerShon Cobb and Tre Demps, the second- and third-leading scorers for the Wildcats, also need to step up after combining to shoot 4-for-19 in the first meeting with Wisconsin.
•ABOUT WISCONSIN (17-3 SU, 12-8-0 ATS, 4-3 Big Ten): If the Badgers have a weak spot, it’s their bench. George Marshall transferred after just two games this season and Duje Dukan hasn’t scored in four of the last five games after opening the season with 15 points against St. John’s. That has left Hayes also the only real threat off the bench and even he can disappear, evident by his two-point performance in Saturday’s win against Purdue.
•PREGAME NOTES: Wisconsin G Ben Brust has made 14 consecutive free throws dating to Dec. 14 and is shooting 37-for-39 overall from the stripe this season.... The Badgers haven’t turned the ball over more than 10 times in the last five games and lead the nation with the fewest giveaways (8.3).... Northwestern G Dave Sobolewski, who returned Saturday against Iowa after missing the previous four games with a concussion, is shooting 25.5 percent from the floor this season after shooting close to 40 in each of the last two seasons.... The Badgers are 1-8 against the spread versus poor 3-point shooting teams - making less than 31% of their attempts over the last two seasons.... The Wildcats are 3-12 versus the spread in road games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN covered the spread 564 times, while NORTHWESTERN covered the spread 405 times. *EDGE against the spread =WISCONSIN. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN won the game straight up 914 times, while NORTHWESTERN won 66 times. In 1000 simulated games, NORTHWESTERN covered the first half line 517 times, while WISCONSIN covered the first half line 483 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WISCONSIN is 17-11 against the spread versus NORTHWESTERN since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 23-5 straight up against NORTHWESTERN since 1997.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 14-12 versus the first half line when playing against NORTHWESTERN since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Wisconsin.
--Favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NW is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--NW is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
--Under is 5-1 in NW last 6 Wednesday games.
--WIS is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games.
--Over is 6-1 in WIS last 7 vs. Big Ten.
--Under is 18-7 in WIS last 25 Wed. games.
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#793 ARIZONA @ #794 STANFORD
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Arizona -5, Total: N/A) - One of three remaining unbeaten teams in the country, top-ranked Arizona kicks off its Bay Area swing Wednesday with a visit to Stanford. The Cardinal feature a balanced attack, but their lack of depth remains an issue. While Arizona has been a model of consistency – the Wildcats lead the Pac-12 in scoring defense (56.7 points per game) and rebounding margin (plus-10.1) – Stanford’s defense has disappeared in losses to BYU, Pittsburgh, Oregon State and UCLA.
Arizona set the mark for the longest winning streak in school history Sunday with a 65-56 victory over Utah, which held the Wildcats to 2-of-14 shooting from 3-point range. Freshman forward Aaron Gordon overcame a poor shooting game and finished with 10 points and 12 rebounds, and will be a key player against Stanford’s solid frontcourt. Gordon is averaging 12.3 points and 7.8 rebounds while scoring in double figures in six straight games.
•ABOUT ARIZONA (20-0 SU, 13-6-0 ATS, 7-0 Pac-12): Guard Nick Johnson has become the team’s primary scoring option, averaging 16.7 points, while also leading the team’s stifling defense. “Nick is probably the smartest kid that I’ve ever coached,” coach Sean Miller told reporters. “He’s a really gifted basketball IQ guy.” Miller has also been pleased by the play of freshman forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who had 10 points and seven rebounds off the bench against Utah and has shot 10-for-19 from the field over the last three games.
•ABOUT STANFORD (13-6 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 4-3 Pac-12): Coach Johnny Dawkins has used the same starting lineup of Chasson Randle, Anthony Brown, Dwight Powell, Josh Huestis and Stefan Nastic in all 19 games, but has received limited production from reserves such as John Gage and Robbie Lemons. Randle has been one of the most improved players in the league while averaging a team-high 19.1 points on 49.4 percent shooting from the field. The Cardinal need a strong game from guard Anthony Brown, who has shot 3-for-18 in three career meetings against the Wildcats.
•PREGAME NOTES: Arizona has won seven straight meetings and leads the series 55-29.... Stanford is 10-0 when leading at halftime.... Fourteen of the last 20 games between the teams have been decided by 10 points or less.... The Wildcats are 10-2 against the spread in road games versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 37% of their attempts over the last three seasons.... The Cardinal are 1-8 versus the spread after covering four or five of their last six against the spread over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA covered the spread 509 times, while STANFORD covered the spread 458 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA won the game straight up 655 times, while STANFORD won 318 times. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA covered the first half line 519 times, while STANFORD covered the first half line 481 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ARIZONA is 18-14 against the spread versus STANFORD since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 21-11 straight up against STANFORD since 1997.
--20 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--STANFORD is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA since 1997.
--20 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Stanford.
--Over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
--Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ARIZ is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
--Under is 7-3 in ARIZ last 10 Wed. games.
--Under is 6-2 in ARIZ last 8 vs. Pacific-12.
--STAN is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--STAN is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Wed. games.
--Over is 8-3-1 in STAN last 12 Wed. games.
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