STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/22/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 1/22/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Wednesday's Notebook
•UMass beat Richmond 79-68/70-65 last two years; they're 2-3 in their last five visits here; 16-1 Minutemen won last six games, with four wins by 5 or less points- they're 4-0 in true road games, with three wins by 10+ points. Spiders are 7-2 at home, losing to Minnesota/Ohio; they're 2-6 versus top 100 teams, beating Delaware/Dayton. A-13 favorites are 6-2 versus spread when number is 4 or less points.
•Michigan won 10 of last 12 games with Iowa, which lost its last four in Crisler Arena by 15-14-14-28 points. Wolverines won last seven games, are 5-0 in league, winning home games by 23-13 points; they're making 62% of 2-point shots in league. Iowa won last three games, scoring 90.3 ppg; they won at Ohio State, after losing at Iowa State/Wisconsin in true road games. Iowa is making 40.3% from arc in league games. Big Dozen home favorites of less than 10 points are 0-8.
•VCU is 14-4 but 1-2 in true road games, with only win at Belmont back on Dec 1- they lost at Northern Iowa/George Washington, their only two losses in last dozen games. Rams force turnovers 28.1% of time, #1 in US, 25.6% in league games- their three A-13 foes shot 18% from arc. Dayton lost two of first three league games, losing to Saint Louis at home; they're 2-2 versus top 50 teams, beating Gonzaga/California.
•Akron won 11 of last 13 games with Eastern Michigan, winning the last three by 14-30-8 points; Zips won four of last five games, winning last road game in double OT at Ohio- they're turning ball over 20.8% of time. Eagles are 3-1 in MAC, beating WMU by 19 in only home game- they're forcing turnovers 22% of time (#22 in US). MAC single digit home favorites are 3-7 against the spread.
•Duke lost both its true road games this year, allowing 79-72 points in losses at Notre Dame/Clemson; Blue Devils lost two of last three games with Miami, after winning 11 of previous 12 meetings- they've got no inside presence (last in ACC in blocked shots). Miami's 40.8 eFG% is #1 in ACC- Hurricanes are 2-2 in ACC, despite allowing 52.8 ppg. ACC home underdogs are 3-7 versus spread, 1-5 if number was less than 5 points.
•West Virginia (-1) won 89-86 in OT at Texas Tech Jan 6, after trailing by 3 with 0:27 left; Mountaineers were +7 in turnovers, but made only 13-22 on foul line- they won three of four series games, with three of four games decided by 3 or less points. Big X single home favorites are 3-5 against spread. Tech won last two games by 10-11 points, with win at TCU. West Virginia lost its last three games since beating Tech.
•Last three Arkansas games all went OT, with Hogs losing twice; they're 1-3 in SEC, beating Kentucky at buzzer, losing road games at Texas A&M by 16, Georgia by 5. Home side won five of last six Arkansas-Tennessee games; Razorbacks lost last three visits here, by 22-7-19 points. Volunteers are turning ball over 23.1% of time in SEC games. SEC home favorites are 11-7 versus spread, 5-3 if they laid 7 or less points.
•Wichita State won 10 of last 11 games with Illinois State, winning 66-47 at home two weeks ago, when Redbirds were 7-26 from arc, Shockers 11-22 on foul line. Wichita won last three visits here by 14-1-13 points; Shockers are 6-0 in Missouri Valley Conference, winning road games by 15 at Southern Illinois, 3 in OT at Missouri State. Illinois State won last three conference games, won seven in a row at home overall. MVC home underdogs are 4-5-1 versus spread.
•Ole Miss swept Vanderbilt LY by 10 in OT and 12 points, after going 1-10 against Commodores in previous 11 meetings; they won in Nashville LY despite being down 13 with 8:39 left, ending 4+-game skid in Memorial Gym. Vanderbilt lost three of last four games but beat Missouri in last home game. SEC home teams are 9-1-1 versus spread in games with spread of 3 or less points. Ole Miss has best eFG% defense in SEC, blocking 17.4% of shots so far.
•Wisconsin lost last two games, allowing 76 ppg after 16-0 start; they're forcing least turnovers in league games and lost at Indiana despite making 68% of shots inside arc. Minnesota beat Purdue/Ohio State in last two home games after losing by 3 to Michigan; Gophers are 3-3 in league, 2-4 versus top 25 teams. Big Dozen home dogs are 6-5 versus spread, 0-3 if number was less than 3 points.
•LaSalle won its last three games versus St Bonaventure, with two of wins in OT; Explorers are 5-0 this month, with three A-13 wins and two more in Big 5- they're 1-2 in road games outside of Philly, winning at Duquesne by 19. Bonnies lost last three games by 5-6-8 points; they're shooting 28.6% from arc, turning ball over 22.3% of time in league games. A-13 home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-1 versus spread.
•Home side won Utah State's first five games in Mountain West; Aggies lost last three road games by 1-8-4 points- they're making 43.8% from arc in league games. UNLV lost its last two home games, to Air Force, Nevada, then played better in road trip at New Mexico/San Diego State; they've made 22.9% from arc in conference games. MW home favorites are 9-14 versus spread, 4-1 if they're laying 7 or less points.
•USC is 0-5 in Pac-12, losing all five games by 18+, but if Golden Bears look ahead to UCLA game, they could lose to team they've beaten four times in row, winning last two visits here 75-49/72-64. Cal won its first three Pac-12 road games by 7-13-5 points. Pac-12 home underdogs are 6-4 against spread. USC lost by 19-20 to Arizona schools in its first two Pac-12 home games; they're shooting 25.4% from arc in league.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- SAINT LOUIS is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAINT LOUIS 71.5, OPPONENT 57.7.
-- BRADLEY is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was BRADLEY 61.7, OPPONENT 67.0.
-- ARKANSAS is 2-20 (-20.0 Units) against the 1rst half line versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARKANSAS 27.8, OPPONENT 37.5.
-- E MICHIGAN is 24-4 UNDER (+19.6 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 22.8, OPPONENT 26.7.
-- SHAKA SMART is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) after 2 straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls as the coach of VA COMMONWEALTH.
The average score was SMART 71.3, OPPONENT 57.9.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- AIR FORCE is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was AIR FORCE 75.8, OPPONENT 71.9.
-- BRADLEY is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was BRADLEY 61.1, OPPONENT 67.7.
-- SAN JOSE ST is 1-10 (-10.0 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN JOSE ST 22.7, OPPONENT 35.2.
-- S FLORIDA is 12-0 UNDER (+12.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 24.2, OPPONENT 27.2.
-- MIKE ANDERSON is 1-15 (-15.5 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game after 15+games in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was ANDERSON 29.3, OPPONENT 41.9.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (ST JOSEPHS) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after a win by 15 points or more.
(125-20 since 1997.) (86.2%, +70.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -270.5
The average score in these games was: Team 75.2, Opponent 66.8 (Average point differential = +8.4)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-3, +11.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (38-8, +16.2 units).
-- Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (W VIRGINIA) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
(64-23 since 1997.) (73.6%, +38.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (75-14)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.8
The average score in these games was: Team 77.6, Opponent 67.4 (Average point differential = +10.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 37 (42% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-7).
-- Play Against - Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WICHITA ST) - a very good team (>=+8 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential), after allowing 50 points or less 2 straight games.
(40-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-37 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 10.6
The average score in these games was: Team 63.2, Opponent 68.8 (Average point differential = -5.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (37.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (90-65).
-- Play On - An underdog versus the 1rst half line (OLE MISS) - good FT shooting team (69-73%) against an average FT shooting team (65-69%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less.
(31-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.9, Opponent 30.6 (Average first half point differential = +0.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (55-32).
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Wednesday's Match-ups
#721 WAKE FOREST @ #722 VIRGINIA TECH
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Virginia Tech -1.5, Total: N/A) - Wake Forest seeks its first ACC road win when it visits Virginia Tech on Wednesday night. The Demon Deacons are 2-0 at home in league action but have dropped their three road games by an average of 15.3 points. The closest of those setbacks was a sluggish 61-53 loss at Clemson on Saturday that saw Wake Forest shoot 36.2 percent and put just one starter in double figures, Tyler Cavanaugh with 12 points.
After becoming the first ACC team to win a conference game this season with a Dec. 8 victory over Miami, the Hokies have fallen toward the bottom of the standings with four straight losses. The last three have come by single digits, including a 70-63 loss at Notre Dame on Sunday. Wednesday's matchup pits two of the worst rebounding teams in ACC action, as Virginia Tech ranks 13th in rebounding margin (minus-4.2) while Wake Forest is last (minus-10).
•ABOUT WAKE FOREST (12-6 SU, 7-7-0 ATS, 2-3 ACC): Some of the Demon Deacons' offensive issues against Clemson were due to the continued slump of senior forward Travis McKie, who had two points on 1-of-7 shooting and is 3-for-19 over his last three games. A Winston-Salem Journal report quoted coach Jeff Bzdelik as saying that McKie may be dealing with an ankle injury, but McKie - a double-digit scorer his first three seasons whose average has plummeted to 9.2 as a senior - said there was nothing physically wrong with him. McKie has averaged 15.4 points and 9.2 rebounds in five career games versus Virginia Tech.
•ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (8-9 SU, 6-6-0 ATS, 1-4 ACC): Freshman guard Devin Wilson has increased his scoring output in each of the last three games since he was limited to three points against Syracuse on Jan. 7. He had a season-high 20 points and seven assists in the loss to Notre Dame after leading the Hokies with 14 points in a setback to Clemson four days earlier. Wilson does not shoot often from beyond the arc but is 5-for-7 from deep in his last five games, a trend that could end against the Demon Deacons, who lead the ACC in 3-point field-goal percentage defense (28.4).
•PREGAME NOTES: Wake Forest G Coron Williams has yet to commit a turnover in 122 minutes of Atlantic Coast Conference action.... Hokies leading scorer F Jarell Eddie has produced five points on 2-of-11 shooting in 57 minutes over his last two games.... Virginia Tech leads the all-time series, 29-28.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WAKE FOREST covered the spread 523 times, while VIRGINIA TECH covered the spread 477 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA TECH won the game straight up 504 times, while WAKE FOREST won 466 times. In 1000 simulated games, WAKE FOREST covered the first half line 488 times, while VIRGINIA TECH covered the first half line 460 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WAKE FOREST is 7-6 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--VIRGINIA TECH is 9-5 straight up against WAKE FOREST since 1997.
--6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WAKE FOREST is 9-5 versus the first half line when playing against VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Demon Deacons are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WAKE is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
--Under is 9-3 in WAKE last 12 overall.
--Under is 19-7-1 in WAKE last 27 Wed. games.
--VT is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
--VT is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Under is 8-0 in VT last 8 overall.
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#723 MASSACHUSETTS @ #724 RICHMOND
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, MASN2 - Line: Richmond -2, Total: N/A) - A hostile crowd much larger than the one it just faced will be waiting for No.12 Massachusetts when it plays at Richmond Wednesday. The Minutemen overcame travel difficulties and a gutsy Elon squad in their final non-conference game in front of a full house of 1,857 fans at Elon's Alumni Hall, which was hosting its first ranked opponent. "That kind of fired us up a little bit," Massachusetts forward Cady Lalanne said after scoring 23 points and grabbing 10 rebounds in the win. "Coach told us about the crowd and we were ready for it."
The Spiders rode the home crowd at the Robins Center, which saw its capacity go from 9,071 to 7,201 after recent renovations, in beating Dayton on Saturday. "The atmosphere was incredible in the Robins Center and you cannot underestimate how much that helps a college basketball game," Richmond coach Chris Mooney said. "It does feel good and we recognize the challenge we have on Wednesday." The challenge will be to end a two-game losing streak to the Minutemen, who won by 11 points at Richmond in 2012 and at home last season.
•ABOUT MASSACHUSETTS (16-1 SU, 10-7-0 ATS, 3-0 Atlantic 10): The 23 points and 10 rebounds were the best game for Lalanne since a 27-point, 12-rebound effort in the season opener against Boston College. It was also the first double-double in five games for the 6-10, 250-pound junior, who came close to getting one last week against George Mason. "I thought Cady played huge," coach Derek Kellogg told reporters after the Elon win. "It was a pretty complete win and a tough road win. I loved their energy and I thought we paid attention to detail after not having a ton of time to practice (due to flight changes). I thought we were sharp."
•ABOUT RICHMOND (12-6 SU, 7-9-1 ATS, 2-1 Atlantic 10): The presence of 6-9, 210-pound sophomore Alonzo Nelson-Ododa, who equaled his career-high with six blocks against Dayton, and the Atlantic 10's second-leading scorer in senior Cedrick Lindsay should allow the Spiders to match up well with the Minutemen, who are led by guard Chaz Williams. One area of concern is rebounding, as the Minutemen are tops in the conference with 39.3 per game and the Spiders are last at 32.4. The Spiders average 10 fewer points per game than the Minutemen.
•PREGAME NOTES: Richmond leads the series 8-5, but is 3-5 against the Minutemen since 2007.... Williams, the Atlantic 10 Player of the Week, scored all 20 of his points in the second half against Elon.... The Spiders are 0-2 against ranked teams, having lost to North Carolina and Florida.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free Throw Shooting Percentages). - The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MASSACHUSETTS covered the spread 508 times, while RICHMOND covered the spread 469 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, RICHMOND won the game straight up 528 times, while MASSACHUSETTS won 450 times. In 1000 simulated games, RICHMOND covered the first half line 474 times, while MASSACHUSETTS covered the first half line 467 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MASSACHUSETTS is 9-5 against the spread versus RICHMOND since 1997.
--RICHMOND is 8-6 straight up against MASSACHUSETTS since 1997.
--7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--RICHMOND is 8-5 versus the first half line when playing against MASSACHUSETTS since 1997.
--6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Minutemen are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Richmond.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Richmond.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MASS is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
--MASS is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
--MASS is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Atlantic 10.
--RICH is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--RICH is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games.
--Over is 5-1 in RICH last 6 Wednesday games.
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#733 LOUISVILLE @ #734 S FLORIDA
(TV: 5:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Louisville -14.5, Total: N/A) - Ninth-ranked Louisville is trying to catch Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference and can’t afford to stumble when it visits lowly South Florida on Wednesday. The Cardinals are one game behind the Bearcats and the teams square off on Jan. 30 for the first of two meetings that will likely decide the regular-season crown. The Bulls are tied for eighth place in the 10-team conference and have lost six of their last eight contests.
Louisville standout guard Russ Smith is on a roll with eight straight outings of 18 or more points, and he was named the conference’s player of the week after averaging 20.5 points in wins over Houston and Connecticut last week. The Cardinals have won their last three games after a 2-2 stretch and coach Rick Pitino attributed the strong play to improved rebounding and defense, while South Florida coach Stan Heath sees opportunity knocking for his club. “Obviously we have nothing to lose,” Heath said. “Nobody is expecting us to do anything in this game except the guys in this locker room, so we have to be the ones that go out there fearless, go out there with confidence and go out there aggressive.”
•ABOUT LOUISVILLE (16-3 SU, 9-8-0 ATS, 5-1 AAC): Forward Montrezl Harrell has three double-doubles over the last four games and stood out in last Saturday’s victory over Connecticut with 18 points, 13 rebounds and three blocked shots. Harrell was 8-of-10 from the field and has been the squad’s second-most reliable player behind Smith while averaging 12 points and a team-best 8.4 rebounds. The 6-8 sophomore will be asked to continue to pile up good efforts after the recent dismissal of key frontcourt player Chane Behanan.
•ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (10-8 SU, 6-9-0 ATS, 1-4 AAC): The Bulls are seeing improvement from guard Javontae Hawkins, a sophomore guard who scored a career-best 15 points in a loss to Cincinnati last Saturday. Hawkins was 6-of-9 from the field after scoring just seven points over his previous five outings. “It was very encouraging and well-needed,” Heath said. “Hopefully that breakout game will build his confidence and he’ll continue on. It gave us that outside shooting we’d been lacking and he also defended well.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Cardinals lead the series 27-4 but the Bulls upset Louisville during the 2011-12 season.... South Florida F Victor Rudd (team-best 15.3 scoring average) is 22 points from becoming the 18th player in school history to reach 1,000 career points.... Louisville PG Chris Jones (oblique) has missed back-to-back games and is questionable for this contest.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, S FLORIDA covered the spread 502 times, while LOUISVILLE covered the spread 498 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE won the game straight up 863 times, while S FLORIDA won 127 times. In 1000 simulated games, S FLORIDA covered the first half line 571 times, while LOUISVILLE covered the first half line 429 times. *EDGE against first half line =S FLORIDA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LOUISVILLE is 15-4 against the spread versus S FLORIDA since 1997.
--LOUISVILLE is 16-3 straight up against S FLORIDA since 1997.
--8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--LOUISVILLE is 10-9 versus the first half line when playing against S FLORIDA since 1997.
--8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cardinals are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
--Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in South Florida.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in South Florida.
--Favorite is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--LOU is 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games.
--LOU is 17-7 ATS L24 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Over is 19-7 in LOU last 26 overall.
--USF is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Wed. games.
--USF is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--Under is 47-19-1 in USF last 67 overall.
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#735 SAINT LOUIS @ #736 DUQUESNE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, A-10 Digital Network - Line: Saint Louis -10.5, Total: N/A) - No. 20 Saint Louis and host Duquesne will both try to extend streaks on Wednesday evening. The Billikens have won 11 straight and own one of the nation's best road records at 6-0. The Dukes have beaten the last two ranked opponents to visit (Xavier in 2009 and Temple 2011) but are just 5-4 at home this season.
The Dukes rank second in the Atlantic-10 in scoring (77.1), but that number has dropped off against conference foes. It won't get any easier against a Saint Louis team that leads the league in scoring defense (57.3), field-goal percentage defense (38.1) and 3-point percentage defense (26). Dwayne Evans and Jordair Jett not only lead the Billikens in scoring but each have 26 steals for their stingy defense.
•ABOUT SAINT LOUIS (17-2 SU, 7-9-0 ATS, 4-0 Atlantic-10): Evans is averaging 18 points on 68.2 percent shooting in league games and Jett is averaging 19 points since A-10 play started. Rob Loe adds 9.1 points per game overall and 26 blocks for the Billikens, who own the nation's sixth longest win streak. Mike McCall Jr. has a team-high 28 steals to go with 8.4 points per contest as Saint Louis leads the league in scoring margin (plus-12.8) despite averaging only 70.1 points.
•ABOUT DUQUESNE (8-8 SU, 4-2-2 ATS, 1-3 Atlantic-10): Alabama-Birmingham transfer Ovie Soko leads the Dukes with 17.2 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, but has been held to a 9.7-point average over the past three games. Tra'Vaughn White, who was the nation's top junior college scorer last year with a 25.9-point average at Independence (Kan.) Community College, adds 11.3 points per game. Derrick Colter has scored in double digits in all four conference games and Micah Mason has hit 25-of-44 from 3-point range for the Dukes, who averaged 79.3 points in nonconference games and 70.8 points through four league games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Jett, Evans and McCall Jr. have all scored 1,000 career points, making Saint Louis one of four teams (South Carolina-Upstate, William & Mary and Virginia Commonwealth) with three active 1,000-point scorers.... Saint Louis second-year coach Jim Crews (45-9 at Saint Louis) is going for his 400th career victory.... Duquesne has given up at least 10 3-pointers to all four conference opponents, allowing a combined 55-of-120.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUQUESNE covered the spread 685 times, while SAINT LOUIS covered the spread 315 times. *EDGE against the spread =DUQUESNE. In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS won the game straight up 606 times, while DUQUESNE won 366 times. In 1000 simulated games, DUQUESNE covered the first half line 653 times, while SAINT LOUIS covered the first half line 298 times. *EDGE against first half line =DUQUESNE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAINT LOUIS is 9-4 against the spread versus DUQUESNE since 1997.
--SAINT LOUIS is 9-4 straight up against DUQUESNE since 1997.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--DUQUESNE is 7-6 versus the first half line when playing against SAINT LOUIS since 1997.
--6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Billikens are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Billikens are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Duquesne.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Duquesne.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SLU is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. Atlantic 10.
--Under is 18-7-1 in SLU last 26 overall.
--Under is 9-1-1 in SLU last 11 vs. Atlantic 10.
--DUQ is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.
--DUQ is 7-17-2 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
--Over is 7-2 in DUQ last 9 Wed. games.
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#751 DUKE @ #752 MIAMI-FLA
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Duke -4.5, Total: N/A) - Duke leads the ACC in scoring since the start of conference play and Miami ranks second in scoring defense. So when the No. 18 Blue Devils visit the Hurricanes on Wednesday, the effectiveness of the Miami defense in slowing a Duke offense ranked 19th nationally at 82.6 points will play a big role in determining the victor. The Hurricanes, who rank ninth nationally at 58.5 points allowed, can look at the job the nation’s leading defense did on the Blue Devils when Clemson held Duke to 59 points on Jan. 11.
The Blue Devils have rebounded from that loss with two straight victories, scoring 50 second-half points in a 95-60 rout of North Carolina State on Saturday. Miami did not allow Georgia Tech to score that many points in 40 minutes Saturday, beating the Yellow Jackets 56-41. The Hurricanes open a stretch of five home games in their next six outings, facing three ranked teams in the process (Duke, Syracuse and Pittsburgh).
•ABOUT DUKE (14-4 SU, 10-8-0 ATS, 3-2 ACC): Jabari Parker showed signs of shaking out of a recent slump Saturday, as the freshman scored 23 points (after averaging 10.5 in his first four ACC games) and hit at least half his shots for the first time in six contests. Parker is second in the ACC in scoring at 19.1 points, followed closely by sophomore Rodney Hood at 17.9 to form one of the top two scoring duos in the nation. The Blue Devils pace the conference in field-goal percentage at 48.4 percent.
•ABOUT MIAMI (10-7 SU, 6-7-0 ATS, 2-3 ACC): Defense has been the Hurricanes’ strength as Miami has held six of its past seven opponents to less than 60 points. Unlike the Blue Devils, Miami has struggled from the field, hitting an Atlantic Coast Conference worst 42.2 percent of its shots. Rion Brown is the only player averaging double figures in scoring at 14.1.
•PREGAME NOTES: Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is two wins away from reaching 900 at the school; only Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim has won at least 900 at one school.... The Hurricanes have played four overtime games this season and seven of their 17 contests have been decided by five points or less.... The Blue Devils lead the series 16-4, but Miami has won two of the past three meetings.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the spread 635 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 365 times. *EDGE against the spread =DUKE. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE won the game straight up 745 times, while MIAMI won 230 times. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the first half line 561 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 439 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MIAMI is 8-6 against the spread versus DUKE since 1997.
--DUKE is 12-3 straight up against MIAMI since 1997.
--13 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MIAMI is 9-5 versus the first half line when playing against DUKE since 1997.
--8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Blue Devils are 1-7-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Over is 12-1 in the last 13 meetings.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Miami-Florida.
--Road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Underdog is 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 4-1 in Blue DUKE last 5 overall.
--Under is 13-4 in DUKE last 17 Wed. games.
--Under is 13-4 in DUKE last 17 Wednesday games.
--MIA is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--MIA is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Under is 10-1 in MIA last 11 overall.
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#753 TEXAS TECH @ #754 W VIRGINIA
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Big 12 Network - Line: West Virginia -5.5, Total: N/A) - Texas Tech will try to exact revenge on West Virginia while winning its third straight game when it visits the Mountaineers in a Big 12 tussle Wednesday. West Virginia prevailed 89-86 in overtime in the season's first meeting Jan. 6 but has lost three straight since, including a 78-56 setback at Kansas State on Saturday. While the Mountaineers have been up and down, junior point guard Juwan Staten has raised his game to become one of the top all-around players in the conference.
“He’s pretty much been doing it all year,” West Virginia coach Bob Huggins told the Daily Athenaeum about Staten, who averages 17.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and a Big 12-best 5.9 assists. “He’s playing with a lot of confidence, and his understanding of what I want him to do is very, very good. He’s playing at a high level right now.” The Red Raiders are coming off a 60-49 victory at Texas Christian on Saturday, which came on the heels of an 82-72 triumph over then-No. 13 Baylor on Jan. 15. “You have to continually validate that you are doing things well and you have to do that in a game,'' Texas Tech coach Tubby Smith told the Dallas Morning News.
•ABOUT TEXAS TECH (10-8 SU, 9-6-0 ATS, 2-3 Big 12): The Red Raiders have won consecutive Big 12 games for the first time since 2011, and Dejan Kravic was a big reason. The 7-foot center from London, Ontario, averaged 13 points and 9.9 rebounds in 35.5 minutes in the two contests - well above his season numbers of 7.1, 4.6 and 20.3 - and also matched a career high with five blocks against TCU. Kravic complements a frontcourt which already features 6-7 forwards Jaye Crockett (team-best 14.2 points per game, 6.4 rebounds) and Jordan Tolbert (12.1 points, team-high 6.6 rebounds), who combined for 33 points and 16 rebounds in the first encounter.
•ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (10-8 SU, 7-8-0 ATS, 2-3 Big 12): While Staten is fourth in the Big 12 in scoring, teammate Eron Harris - a 6-3 sophomore guard - is third at 17.6 points per game. The duo combined for 37 points on 10-for-22 shooting against Kansas State, but their teammates were 6-for-27 from the floor en route to the Mountaineers' most lopsided loss of the season. While West Virginia needs more from others such as sophomore guard Terry Henderson (11.6 points), it must improve defensively as Kansas State shot 54.9 percent while Texas converted 52.7 percent of its field goals in an 80-69 victory Jan. 13.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Mountaineers have won all eight games this season when holding their opponent to 69 or fewer points.... The Red Raiders are averaging 37.1 points in the paint, the highest average in program history. The 1995-96 team finished at 34.3 points.... After Texas Tech, West Virginia plays six straight games against ranked teams in addition to a matchup with Kansas State, which sits one spot outside the USA Today Top 25 Coaches Poll.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the spread 509 times, while TEXAS TECH covered the spread 491 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA won the game straight up 664 times, while TEXAS TECH won 315 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS TECH covered the first half line 493 times, while W VIRGINIA covered the first half line 460 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--W VIRGINIA is 3-2 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH since 1997.
--W VIRGINIA is 4-1 straight up against TEXAS TECH since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--W VIRGINIA is 3-2 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS TECH since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TTU is 6-17 ATS in their last 23 road games.
--Under is 7-0 in TTU last 7 road games.
--Under is 9-3-1 in TTU last 13 overall.
--WVU is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big 12.
--WVU is 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 home games.
--Over is 8-1 in WVU last 9 vs. Big 12.
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#755 ARKANSAS @ #756 TENNESSEE
(TIME: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Tennessee -7, Total: N/A) - Arkansas will try to snap a five-game road losing streak when it visits Tennessee in an SEC contest on Wednesday. Odds are the Razorbacks will probably need overtime to do it. Arkansas played a school record three consecutive overtime games heading into this one, losing two but upsetting No. 14 Kentucky 87-85 in the other.
The game pits the nation's 15th ranked scoring offense in Arkansas (83.3) against a Tennessee defense that ranks No. 1 in the SEC during conference play allowing just 62 points per game. In fact, only three opponents have scored more than 67 points against the Vols this season: UTEP (78), Kentucky (74) and Wichita State (70). The Razorbacks, coming off a 66-61 overtime loss at Georgia, haven't been held to less than 70 points in back-to-back games this season and have scored 100 points in a game three times this season.
•ABOUT ARKANSAS (12-5 SU, 8-6-0 ATS, 1-3 SEC): The Razorbacks have held a lead with less than five minutes remaining in all three of their previous games only to lose two of them in overtime. Sophomore guard Michael Qualls, who is averaging a team-best 12.4 points, saved the Hogs from getting swept in those three contests with a game-winning dunk with 0.2 seconds left against Kentucky. Freshman forward Bobby Porter is second on the team in scoring (12.1) and tops the team in rebounding (6.6).
•ABOUT TENNESSEE (11-6 SU, 9-6-0 ATS, 2-2 SEC): The Volunteers lead the South East Conference in rebounding margin (12.5) and rank eighth in the nation in offensive rebounds (14.7). Junior forward Jarnell Stokes is averaging 13.8 points and 9.9 rebounds and ranks sixth nationally in offensive rebounds (4.24). Guard Jordan McRae leads the team in scoring (18.4) which also ranks sixth in the conference.
•PREGAME NOTES: Stokes has 27 career double-doubles which leads all active players in the South Eastern Conference... Arkansas' bench is averaging 36.6 points per game.... Arkansas is 19-1 under coach Mike Anderson when forcing 20 turnovers in a game.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARKANSAS covered the spread 598 times, while TENNESSEE covered the spread 374 times. *EDGE against the spread =ARKANSAS. In 1000 simulated games, TENNESSEE won the game straight up 598 times, while ARKANSAS won 381 times. In 1000 simulated games, ARKANSAS covered the first half line 574 times, while TENNESSEE covered the first half line 426 times. *EDGE against first half line =ARKANSAS.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ARKANSAS is 12-9 against the spread versus TENNESSEE since 1997.
--TENNESSEE is 13-8 straight up against ARKANSAS since 1997.
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ARKANSAS is 10-9 versus the first half line when playing against TENNESSEE since 1997.
--7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Razorbacks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Tennessee.
--Razorbacks are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Tennessee.
--Underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ARK is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Wed. games.
--ARK is 21-52 ATS in their last 73 road games.
--Over is 11-5 in ARK last 16 overall.
--TENN is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 vs. Southeastern.
--TENN is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. loss.
--Over is 7-2 in TENN last 9 Wed. games.
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#759 WICHITA ST @ #760 ILLINOIS ST
(TV: 8:05 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Wichita State -8.5, Total: N/A) - Wichita State surprised the college basketball world last spring by reaching the Final Four as a No. 9 seed, but the idea of the Shockers being a No. 1 seed in this season's tournament could be just as stunning - but maybe not too far-fetched. "We'd be 34-0, I don't care who you are playing," coach Gregg Marshall told USA Today when asked if his team should be a top seed if they remain undefeated. "If you are playing a damn NAIA schedule, you should be a No. 1 seed." The fourth-ranked Shockers aim for a 20-0 start Wednesday when they visit Illinois State in Missouri Valley Conference action.
Wichita State has plenty of offensive talent, but defense has been its key to this point in the season. The Shockers have allowed 72 points or fewer in every game and have allowed 54 points or less in four of their last five contests. One of those games was a 66-47 victory over Illinois State on Jan. 8, although the Redbirds have won three straight games since shooting just 32.7 percent in their loss to Wichita State.
•ABOUT WICHITA STATE (19-0 SU, 12-3-1 ATS, 6-0 MVC): While Cleanthony Early is the best known player for the Shockers, Fred Van Vleet has probably been their most consistent performer this season. The sophomore point guard has a 4.4 assist-to-turnover ratio and shoots efficiently from the field (48.8), 3-point range (44.7) and the foul line (82.9). Anthony (15.5 points, 6.4 rebounds) is coming off his two lowest scoring games of the season - back-to-back six-point efforts against Bradley and Indiana State.
•ABOUT ILLINOIS STATE (11-7 SU, 8-9-0 ATS, 4-2 MVC): The Redbirds are coming off a 77-63 triumph against Drake in which they shot 9-of-20 from behind the arc - a percentage that they'd love to duplicate against the mighty Shockers. Nick Zeisloft, who was 4-of-5 from long range against Drake, has made a team-high 31 3-pointers on the season, as has leading scorer Daishon Knight. Overall, though, Illinois State is not a great 3-point shooting team - 33.3 percent as a group - and their overall shooting percentage of 40.8 percent ranked 317th in the country entering Tuesday's action.
•PREGAME NOTES: The first matchup featured poor shooting for the most part, although Wichita State's 9-of-22 performance from 3-point range proved to be the key to the Shockers' victory.... Van Vleet has gone 11 straight games without committing more than two turnovers and has one turnover or less in nine of those contests.... Illinois State does have a couple of solid wins this season - at Northwestern and versus Dayton and DePaul.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST covered the spread 552 times, while ILLINOIS ST covered the spread 448 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST won the game straight up 775 times, while ILLINOIS ST won 195 times. In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST covered the first half line 482 times, while ILLINOIS ST covered the first half line 471 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WICHITA ST is 22-16 against the spread versus ILLINOIS ST since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 24-14 straight up against ILLINOIS ST since 1997.
--11 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 25-13 versus the first half line when playing against ILLINOIS ST since 1997.
--14 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Shockers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Illinois St.
--Favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WICH is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
--WICH is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 Wed. games.
--Over is 36-17 in WICH last 53 road games.
--ILST is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.
--ILST is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 43-18 in ILST last 61 home games.
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#765 AUBURN @ #766 MISSISSIPPI ST
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Auburn -1, Total: N/A) - Mississippi State looks to take care of business when it hosts Auburn on Wednesday without peeking ahead to the clash with bitter rival Mississippi. The Bulldogs bounced back from an 80-61 loss to Alabama with a resilient 81-72 overtime win over Texas A&M on Saturday. Coach Rick Ray hailed the effort from his players and was delighted with the offensive fireworks, saying: "This was a good win for us against a quality defense, to score 81 points and shoot close to 53 percent is huge for this team."
Auburn has dropped its first four games in SEC play, including a 68-61 loss to No. 6 Florida on Saturday. However, three of the Tigers' four setbacks have come by a combined 10 points as they hope to snap their 14-game conference losing streak. Coach Tony Barbee remains optimistic and believes the ball will start bouncing Auburn's way, saying: "We haven't had that breakthrough moment, but it's coming because of the character and makeup of the individuals on this team."
•ABOUT AUBURN (8-7 SU, 6-5-0 ATS, 0-4 SEC): The Tigers pack a formidable one-two punch in the backcourt with Chris Denson leading the SEC in scoring (19.5) and KT Harrell close behind (18.9). Denson scored a team-high 21 points and Harrell added 18 as Auburn fell short in its upset bid of Florida. Harrell has made 84 percent of his free-throw attempts and has gone perfect from the line in eight games, including three of his last five.
•ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (12-5 SU, 3-6-0 ATS, 2-2 SEC): Gavin Ware leads the team in rebounding (8.9) and scored 22 points and grabbed 10 boards to record his sixth double-double of the season versus Texas A&M. The Bulldogs are ranked 12th in the country with 9.3 steals per game and have finished with 10 or more on eight occasions. I.J. Ready, who tops the team in 3-point percentage (47.6), missed the game against Aggies and remains day-to-day with a concussion.
•PREGAME NOTES: Mississippi State has won 12 of its last 13 games against Auburn at Humphrey Coliseum.... The Bulldogs have surpassed the 80-point plateau only once this season.... Auburn is 72-66 all-time versus Mississippi State.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MISSISSIPPI ST covered the spread 525 times, while AUBURN covered the spread 445 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MISSISSIPPI ST won the game straight up 493 times, while AUBURN won 475 times. In 1000 simulated games, MISSISSIPPI ST covered the first half line 525 times, while AUBURN covered the first half line 475 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MISSISSIPPI ST is 15-13 against the spread versus AUBURN since 1997.
--MISSISSIPPI ST is 17-14 straight up against AUBURN since 1997.
--13 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--AUBURN is 17-14 versus the first half line when playing against MISSISSIPPI ST since 1997.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Tigers are 3-8-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Mississippi St.
--Over is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Mississippi St.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--AUB is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
--AUB is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. Southeastern.
--Over is 5-0 in AUB last 5 Wednesday games.
--MSST is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--MSST is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 Wed. games.
--Over is 26-10 in MSST last 36 Wed. games.
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#771 S CAROLINA @ #772 GEORGIA
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Georgia -4.5, Total: N/A) - Georgia will try to keep the momentum going from a surprising 3-1 start in SEC play when struggling South Carolina pays a visit Wednesday evening. The Bulldogs got off to an uninspiring 6-6 start in non-conference play, but they have rebounded to win three of their first four conference games for the first time since 2007. Leading scorer Charles Mann struggled with foul trouble in the Bulldogs’ most recent win over Arkansas, but he rebounded to carry the team in overtime and gain praise from coach Mark Fox, who told the Athens Banner-Herald, “With his experience, he had a chance to kind of gather himself and he finished well.”
South Carolina is still searching for conference win number one in Frank Martin’s second year, though its four losses have been by an average of just seven points. The often-animated Martin was especially frustrated during the Gamecocks' most recent one-point loss to Mississippi, launching into an especially angry tirade on the sidelines at the team’s lone senior, Brenton Martin. “I got wrapped up in the moment trying to get our program to take a step forward. … There’s no place for me or any other coach to speak to Brent, or any other athlete, the way I did that moment there,” Martin told reporters Tuesday.
•ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (7-10 SU, 8-5-1 ATS, 0-4 SEC): One encouraging sign for Martin in the loss to the Rebels was the performance of highly touted freshman Sindarius Thornwell, who has been inconsistent since the holidays. Thornwell, the team’s leading scorer at 12 points per game, notched his first career double-double with 24 points and 11 rebounds. When Thornwell hasn’t gotten it going, the Gamecocks have struggled mightily, as they are in the bottom third nationally in both scoring and field goal percentage.
•ABOUT GEORGIA (9-7 SU, 8-6-0 ATS, 3-1 SEC): The ability to win without a huge day from Mann, who scored just nine points against Arkansas, has to give Fox much more confidence in his complementary players. That said, Mann has shown the ability to explode for stretches, going for 18 and 22 against Missouri and Alabama respectively. One guy Fox would like to see get going is Nemanja Djurisic, who has scored just 11 points total in the Bulldogs' most recent three games after pouring in 16 against Missouri.
•PREGAME NOTES: Georgia has won six of the last seven meetings between the two teams.... Williams is 49-of-50 for a nation-best 98 percent from the free-throw line this season.... Georgia is 9-0 when outrebounding its opponent.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, S CAROLINA covered the spread 506 times, while GEORGIA covered the spread 494 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA won the game straight up 612 times, while S CAROLINA won 360 times. In 1000 simulated games, S CAROLINA covered the first half line 527 times, while GEORGIA covered the first half line 473 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GEORGIA is 21-10 against the spread versus S CAROLINA since 1997.
--GEORGIA is 16-16 straight up against S CAROLINA since 1997.
--13 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--GEORGIA is 19-11 versus the first half line when playing against S CAROLINA since 1997.
--14 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Gamecocks are 7-20 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
--Gamecocks are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Georgia.
--Under is 5-0-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Georgia.
--Favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SCAR is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
--SCAR is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Over is 7-1-1 in SCAR last 9 vs. Southeastern.
--UGA is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
--UGA is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. Southeastern.
--Under is 34-16-1 in UGA last 51 home games.
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#773 MISSISSIPPI @ #774 VANDERBILT
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, CSS, ESPN3 - Line: Vanderbilt -1, Total: N/A) - Mississippi is living on the edge in conference play but continues to pull out enough close wins to stay near the top. The Rebels will attempt to take care of things before the final possession when they visit stumbling Vanderbilt on Wednesday. The Commodores pulled off a nice home victory over Missouri on Thursday but could not carry that magic onto the road and were crushed 81-58 at LSU, giving them three losses in four SEC games.
Ole Miss’ games have been decided by an average of 5.5 points in conference play, a mark skewed by an 88-74 overtime victory over LSU last week. The Rebels rallied from a 12-point deficit to steal a 75-74 win at South Carolina on Saturday, notching their first road triumph in conference play after a 76-72 setback at rival Mississippi State on Jan. 11. Vanderbilt was dominated on the inside by the Tigers on Saturday and could have some trouble against an improved Ole Miss frontcourt.
•ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (12-5 SU, 4-7-0 ATS, 3-1 SEC): The Rebels rely heavily on Marshall Henderson but are getting production from other spots as well. Anthony Perez came off the bench to score a career-high 22 points Saturday and Adam Jones is becoming a force along the front line. Jones hauled in 13 rebounds in the win over LSU and blocked four shots at South Carolina despite being limited to 15 minutes due to foul trouble. Henderson still takes over when needed and scored 19 of his 25 points after halftime in his return from a two-game suspension against LSU before putting up 16 of his 19 after the break at South Carolina.
•ABOUT VANDERBILT (9-7 SU, 8-6-1 ATS, 1-3 SEC): The Commodores were outrebounded 45-35 against Missouri but made up for the deficit with Rod Odom knocking down six 3-pointers en route to 24 points in the 78-75 victory. Odom put up 20 points against LSU but the disadvantage on the boards was even greater at 48-24 and Vanderbilt could not make up the different with a 5-of-20 effort from beyond the arc. “Obviously, I am very disappointed in our rebounding effort,” coach Kevin Stallings told reporters. “It is quite disturbing to get beat that badly on the boards.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Henderson is averaging 4.4 made 3-pointers and has connected on at least one from beyond the arc in 50 straight games.... Ole Miss snapped a six-game losing streak at Vanderbilt with an 89-79 overtime victory last season.... Commodores G Kyle Fuller had a string of four straight games in double figures come to an end with six points on 1-of-9 shooting on Saturday.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OLE MISS covered the spread 550 times, while VANDERBILT covered the spread 426 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OLE MISS won the game straight up 524 times, while VANDERBILT won 450 times. In 1000 simulated games, OLE MISS covered the first half line 560 times, while VANDERBILT covered the first half line 440 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--VANDERBILT is 10-9 against the spread versus OLE MISS since 1997.
--VANDERBILT is 12-7 straight up against OLE MISS since 1997.
--6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--VANDERBILT is 15-4 versus the first half line when playing against OLE MISS since 1997.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MISS are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 Wed. games.
--Under is 7-3 in MISS last 10 road games.
--Over is 8-2-1 in MISS last 11 Wed. games.
--VAN is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Southeastern.
--Under is 33-16-2 in VAN last 51 overall.
--Under is 6-1-2 in VAN last 9 home games.
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#777 TCU @ #778 OKLAHOMA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Oklahoma -16.5, Total: N/A) - Oklahoma has been strong offensively all season, but will get a chance to show off an improved defense when it hosts Texas Christian on Wednesday. The No. 25 Sooners are ninth nationally at 84.7 points but solid defense in the past six quarters - holding Kansas State to 28.6 percent shooting in the second half last week and Baylor to 40.7 percent Saturday - has coach Lon Kruger pleased. "I thought the second half at Kansas State was a start," he told the media after Saturday's 66-64 victory at Baylor. "We're playing good clubs every night out, so we've got to keep getting better, especially on that end of the floor."
The Sooners, who are 8-2 at the Lloyd Noble Center, are the only Big 12 team with five starters averaging double figures. Buddy Hield has been a spark plug, averaging 18.6 points in league play despite fighting through a nagging foot injury. The Horned Frogs have lost five straight and face their fourth ranked opponent in five games.
•ABOUT TEXAS CHRISTIAN (9-8 SU, 5-7-0 ATS, 0-5 Big 12): Freshman center Karviar Shepherd has come on strong with 28 points in his last two games after scoring just 13 points in his first three Big 12 contests. Kyan Anderson leads the Horned Frogs with 14.6 points and Amric Fields, who is limited in practice before and after games because of soreness following last year's knee surgery, is averaging 13.7 points and 5.6 rebounds in his 10 appearances. TCU has held 12 of its 17 opponents to fewer than 70 points and ranks fourth in the Big 12 in points allowed (68.1).
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA (14-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 3-2 Big 12): Cameron Clark leads the Sooners with 17.1 points and Hield (16.6), Jordan Woodard (11.3), Ryan Spangler (11.2) and Isaiah Cousins (10.6) are all in double figures. Spangler leads the league in rebounds (9.4) and is averaging 12.7 rebounds over his last three games. Oklahoma, which leads the series 12-2 and is 6-0 at home against TCU, is shooting 41.9 percent from the 3-point line at home, led by a combined 45.4 percent by Cousins, Clark and Hield.
•PREGAME NOTES: Hield, who missed five games last year with a broken foot and reaggravated the injury before the team's preseason trip to Belgium and France, had his foot stepped on during a Jan. 11 game this season.... The Horned Frogs average 65.9 points and have been held to 50 or fewer points in three Big 12 games.... Spangler has a league-high seven double-doubles while TCU has just two (one by Fields and Shepherd) this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TCU covered the spread 524 times, while OKLAHOMA covered the spread 476 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA won the game straight up 888 times, while TCU won 102 times. In 1000 simulated games, TCU covered the first half line 575 times, while OKLAHOMA covered the first half line 425 times. *EDGE against first half line =TCU.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA is 3-1 against the spread versus TCU since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA is 3-1 straight up against TCU since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA is 2-2 versus the first half line when playing against TCU since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TCU is 5-21 ATS in their last 26 vs. Big 12.
--TCU is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
--Over is 7-3-1 in TCU last 11 road games.
--Over is 20-7 in OKLA last 27 overall.
--Over is 20-6 in OKLA last 26 home games.
--Over is 12-4 in OKLA last 16 vs. Big 12.
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#779 WISCONSIN @ #780 MINNESOTA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Wisconsin -1, Total: N/A) - Eighth-ranked Wisconsin will attempt to snap its two-game slide at a difficult place to win when the Badgers visit Minnesota on Wednesday. The Golden Gophers have won 26 out of 29 games at home – 9-3 in Big Ten action – since the start of last season, including an overtime triumph over Wisconsin last February. Ballhandling will be at a premium in the matchup as Wisconsin commits a nation-low 8.3 turnovers per game and Minnesota leads the Big Ten in steals.
The Badgers are coming off close losses to Indiana and Michigan while allowing 76 points per game – more than 13 above their season average. The Golden Gophers have been up and down defensively of late, giving up 94 and 87 in two losses along with 53 in a big home victory over Ohio State. Both teams rely on long-distance shooting as Wisconsin is second and Minnesota fourth in the Big Ten in made 3-pointers per contest.
•ABOUT WISCONSIN (16-2 SU, 11-7-0 ATS, 3-2 Big Ten): The Badgers shot almost 50 percent from the field combined over the last two games, but failed to find ways to win. “We’ve got to bounce back,” Wisconsin guard Josh Gasser told reporters after the Michigan loss. “It’s a long season, so two losses aren’t going to kill us, but at the same time we have to get better. That’s our main priority now.” Sam Dekker averages 13.8 points to lead the Badgers while 7-0 Frank Kaminsky (13.5) and 3-point ace Ben Brust (13.2) have also contributed.
•ABOUT MINNESOTA (14-5 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 3-3 Big Ten): The Golden Gophers are shooting only 43.7 percent overall and will need to improve on that if they are to take up a position near the top of the Big Ten standings. Andre Hollins averages 16.2 points to lead the way for Minnesota while fellow guards Austin Hollins (11.8) and DeAndre Mathieu (11.2) have each put up good numbers on the offensive end. Elliott Eliason, a 6-11 junior, is second in the league in rebounding (8.7) and blocked shots (2.6) to go along with six double-doubles.
•PREGAME NOTES: Neither team has scored more than 58 points in the last three meetings and Wisconsin has won four of the last five encounters.... Minnesota G Malik Smith, a transfer from Florida International, shoots 87.8 percent from the free-throw line to lead the Big Ten and averages 9.6 points.... Wisconsin has scored at least 70 points in nine consecutive games, the longest such stretch since the 1992-93 season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN covered the spread 589 times, while MINNESOTA covered the spread 377 times. *EDGE against the spread =WISCONSIN. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN won the game straight up 623 times, while MINNESOTA won 345 times. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN covered the first half line 572 times, while MINNESOTA covered the first half line 428 times. *EDGE against first half line =WISCONSIN.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MINNESOTA is 13-13 against the spread versus WISCONSIN since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 20-7 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1997.
--12 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MINNESOTA is 14-11 versus the first half line when playing against WISCONSIN since 1997.
--12 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Badgers are 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.
--Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WIS is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
--WIS is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Under is 18-6 in WIS last 24 Wed. games.
--MINN is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big Ten.
--MINN is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
--Under is 21-6 in MINN last 27 Wed. games.
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#783 SAN DIEGO ST @ #784 SAN JOSE ST
(TV: 10:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: San Diego State -13.5, Total: N/A) - Two teams heading in opposite directions will cross paths Wednesday night when San Jose State hosts No. 7 San Diego State in a Mountain West Conference game. The Aztecs have won 15 straight games -- the second-longest streak in program history -- while the Spartans have dropped six in a row, putting them on course to surpass last season’s stretch run of 14 consecutive losses. Adding to the difficulty for San Jose State will be Aztecs leading scorer Xavier Thames, who grew up in Sacramento and should be relishing the chance to play closer to his hometown friends and family.
Thames showed on Saturday against UNLV that even when he’s not shooting the ball well he can find ways to contribute. Thames finished with 18 points on 3-for-14 shooting but contributed seven rebounds and four assists while also getting to the free throw line 12 times, where he converted 11. San Jose State’s leading scorer is Rashad Muhammad, the younger brother of Shabazz Muhammad, the Pac-12 Conference co-Freshman of the Year last season at UCLA who was drafted 14th overall in the NBA draft.
•ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (16-1 SU, 8-6-0 ATS, 5-0 Mountain West): Josh Davis hasn’t let another change of scenery affect his thirst for rebounds. Davis, a 6-8 forward, entered this week third in the nation in boards at 11.5 -- reaching double figures in his last 11 games -- after leading Conference-USA in rebounding last season (10.7) at Tulane, where he played two seasons after beginning his career at North Carolina State. The Aztecs’ starting five also includes 6-7 JJ O’Brien and 6-10 Skylar Spencer, but San Diego State doesn't benefit from much size off the bench.
•ABOUT SAN JOSE STATE (6-12 SU, 9-7-0 ATS, 0-6 Mountain West): Muhammad will be looking for a bounce-back game after shooting 0-for-7 in Saturday’s loss to Wyoming. The 6-6 freshman guard from Las Vegas missed all four tries from 3-point range but is still shooting 45 percent from beyond the arc while averaging nearly seven attempts a game. The player who will be asked to control Davis is 6-9 forward Chris Cunningham, who averaged a team-high nine rebounds for the Spartans last season but hasn’t hit that mark in the last seven games.
•PREGAME NOTES: San Diego State has won 38 consecutive games against teams from California.... The Aztecs have defeated six teams that advanced to the NCAA Tournament last season, fourth most in the nation coming into the week behind Kansas, Arizona and Syracuse.... San Jose State F Jaleel Williams is second on the team in scoring at 11.9 points after averaging 1.8 as a sophomore last season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN JOSE ST covered the spread 603 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the spread 397 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN JOSE ST. In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO ST won the game straight up 755 times, while SAN JOSE ST won 213 times. In 1000 simulated games, SAN JOSE ST covered the first half line 633 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the first half line 330 times. *EDGE against first half line =SAN JOSE ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN JOSE ST is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST since 1997.
--SAN JOSE ST is 2-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST since 1997.
--SAN JOSE ST is 2-2 versus the first half line when playing against SAN DIEGO ST since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SDSU is 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 road games.
--Under is 16-5 in SDSU last 21 overall.
--Under is 14-3 in SDSU last 17 games following a S.U. win.
--SJSU is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games.
--SJSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
--Under is 27-11-1 in SJSU last 39 overall.
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#785 OREGON ST @ #786 WASHINGTON ST
(TV: 10:00 PM EST, Pac-12 Network - Line: Oregon State -2, Total: N/A) - Washington State is not expected to get the services of leading scorer DaVonte Lacy back when it hosts Oregon State in a Pac-12 Conference matchup on Wednesday. Lacy has played only once in the last seven games while battling appendicitis and a rib injury and the Cougars have struggled mightily in his absence. Washington State is 2-5 in that stretch while averaging 49 points over the last six.
Oregon State has won two of its past three games to climb out of the conference cellar. The Beavers knocked off rival Oregon in their last game while getting 22 points from Roberto Nelson, who leads the conference in scoring at 21.5 points. Oregon State looks for back-to-back wins over Washington State in Pullman for the first time since 1989-1990.
•ABOUT OREGON STATE (10-7 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 2-3 Pac-12): After dropping their first two conference games, the Beavers have turned things around with wins over Stanford and their state rivals in the past two weeks. Oregon State's success lies with its outside shooting as it leads the Pac-12 in 3-point percentage at 41.1 percent overall and a sizzling 53.2 percent in conference games. Hallice Cooke is first in the Pac-12 and third in the nation in 3-point percentage while Nelson needs 21 points to move into sixth place on the school's all-time list.
•ABOUT WASHINGTON STATE (8-10 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, 1-5 Pac-12): Lacy's rib injury is separate from the appendectomy that kept him out of three games earlier in the season. The junior guard is averaging 17.7 points, but hasn't even been able to practice much. Without Lacy the Cougars have been forced to rely on unproven guard Que Johnson, who sat out all of last season, and Royce Woolridge, who has been the focal point of opposing defenses and averages 9.2 points.
•PREGAME NOTES: Oregon State has outrebounded all five of its Pac-12 opponents and has a rebounding margin of +4.4 in league games.... The Cougars beat Utah 49-46 in its last home game Jan. 12.... Washington State is 24-9 against the spread in home games after having lost four of their last five games since 1997.... The Cougars are 6-3 at home.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON ST covered the spread 519 times, while OREGON ST covered the spread 454 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON ST won the game straight up 513 times, while WASHINGTON ST won 449 times. In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON ST covered the first half line 497 times, while OREGON ST covered the first half line 455 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OREGON ST is 19-15 against the spread versus WASHINGTON ST since 1997.
--WASHINGTON ST is 18-16 straight up against OREGON ST since 1997.
--12 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OREGON ST is 18-16 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON ST since 1997.
--11 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Beavers are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Washington St.
--Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ORST is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--ORST is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 4-1 in Beavers last 5 Wednesday games.
--WSU is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games.
--Under is 5-2-1 in WSU last 8 overall.
--Under is 5-2-2 in WSU last 9 vs. Pacific-12.
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#791 CALIFORNIA @ #792 USC
(TV: 11:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: California -8, Total: N/A) - California looks to remain unbeaten in Pac-12 play on Wednesday when the Golden Bears visit USC, which is still seeking its first league win. The Golden Bears are shooting 53 percent during their six-game winning streak, which includes Saturday’s 76-55 win over Washington State. Arizona coach Sean Miller told reporters on Monday’s Pac-12 teleconference that California is playing as well as anyone in the conference, including his top-ranked Wildcats.
While California is off to its best start in league play in more than a decade, USC is off to a dismal start under first-year coach Andy Enfield. The Trojans have lost five straight, all by double figures, to open Pac-12 play. Guard Byron Wesley leads the team in points (16.5) and rebounds (7.4), while center Omar Oraby has 47 blocked shots for the Trojans, who have averaged a conference-high 15.8 turnovers in their first five league games.
•ABOUT CALIFORNIA (14-4 SU, 10-7-0 ATS, 5-0 Pac-12): The Golden Bears have won their first five conference games by an average of 14.4 points and lead the Pac-12 with 18.2 assists per game in league play. Point guard Justin Cobbs averages a team-high 14.9 points and forward Richard Solomon has dominated in the paint (Pac-12-leading 10.3 boards), but the Golden Bears’ improved depth has been the main story. Guards Jabari Bird and Jeff Powers have provided scoring off the bench, while 6-9 forward Christian Behrens contributed quality minutes in wins against the Washington schools last week.
•ABOUT USC (9-9 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 0-5 Pac-12): The Trojans fell behind 20-2 at Colorado on Saturday and never recovered en route to an 83-62 loss. Guard J.T. Terrell, who missed eight games last month due to academic issues, continued to push for more playing time by scoring 16 points, including four 3-pointers, in the loss to the Buffaloes. Enfield doesn’t have the personnel to remind anyone of his Florida Gulf Coast days, but freshmen starters Nikola Jovanovic (8.6 points, five rebounds) and Julian Jacobs (7.2 points) offer hope for the future.
•PREGAME NOTES: California leads the all-time series 131-130, including four straight wins.... USC is 84-40 at its home court -- the Galen Center -- since it opened in 2006.... The Golden Bears’ scoring average of 76.7 points is up 9.5 points from last season’s 67.2 average.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, USC covered the spread 485 times, while CALIFORNIA covered the spread 479 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CALIFORNIA won the game straight up 727 times, while USC won 243 times. In 1000 simulated games, USC covered the first half line 524 times, while CALIFORNIA covered the first half line 476 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--USC is 18-16 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA since 1997.
--CALIFORNIA is 22-14 straight up against USC since 1997.
--17 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CALIFORNIA is 20-16 versus the first half line when playing against USC since 1997.
--14 of 26 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Golden Bears are 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
--Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Southern California.
--Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CAL is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Wed. games.
--CAL is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Over is 10-4 in CAL last 14 Wed. games.
--USC is 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 home games.
--USC is 20-41-4 ATS in their last 65 games overall.
--Over is 6-2 in USC last 8 overall.
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--CALIFORNIA is 20-16 versus the first half line when playing against USC since 1997.
--14 of 26 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Golden Bears are 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
--Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Southern California.
--Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CAL is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Wed. games.
--CAL is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Over is 10-4 in CAL last 14 Wed. games.
--USC is 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 home games.
--USC is 20-41-4 ATS in their last 65 games overall.
--Over is 6-2 in USC last 8 overall.
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