ChicagoSportsConnection
ChicagoSportsConnection
NBA
DALLAS -1.5 @ Milw..................8 EDT
DALL has Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard healthy again and seem to be peaking.
DALL 11-5 ATS in L16 on road.
MILW opponents have scored 101+ in 7 of L8 games.
MILW having a tough go without Center Bogut........... Richard Jefferson quote..."we've really been struggling the past couple weeks".
............predicted score....Dallas 102-96
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sent earlier...............
CHARLOTTE -6 vs Memphis........7 EDT
CHAR has won 3 of their last 4 @ home....most recent home game was lost to SAN ANT (86-84).
Three prior games , they beat PORT, BOST & MILW.
Also won recent road games @ DETR & WASH.
MEMPH meanwhile ,has lost their last 6 games...all by 7 or more points.
4 of their last 5 opponents have shot 52% or better...which is about as bad as it gets.
Go with CHARLOTTE minus the 6.
.........predicted score....Charlotte 96-85
ChicagoSportsConnection
NBA
DALLAS -1.5 @ Milw..................8 EDT
DALL has Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard healthy again and seem to be peaking.
DALL 11-5 ATS in L16 on road.
MILW opponents have scored 101+ in 7 of L8 games.
MILW having a tough go without Center Bogut........... Richard Jefferson quote..."we've really been struggling the past couple weeks".
............predicted score....Dallas 102-96
**********************************************************************************
sent earlier...............
CHARLOTTE -6 vs Memphis........7 EDT
CHAR has won 3 of their last 4 @ home....most recent home game was lost to SAN ANT (86-84).
Three prior games , they beat PORT, BOST & MILW.
Also won recent road games @ DETR & WASH.
MEMPH meanwhile ,has lost their last 6 games...all by 7 or more points.
4 of their last 5 opponents have shot 52% or better...which is about as bad as it gets.
Go with CHARLOTTE minus the 6.
.........predicted score....Charlotte 96-85
NSA
CBB Arizona St @ Arizona 9:30 20* Arizona +2.5
CBB Wisconsin @ Iowa 8:35 10* Wisconsin -2
CBB Villanova @ Connecticut 7:00 10* Villanova +9.5
CBB Drake @ Missouri St 8:05 10* Drake -1
NBA Toronto @ Detroit 7:35 10* Detroit -5.5
NBA Cleveland @ Portland 10:05 10* Portland +1
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CBB Arizona St @ Arizona 9:30 20* Arizona +2.5
CBB Wisconsin @ Iowa 8:35 10* Wisconsin -2
CBB Villanova @ Connecticut 7:00 10* Villanova +9.5
CBB Drake @ Missouri St 8:05 10* Drake -1
NBA Toronto @ Detroit 7:35 10* Detroit -5.5
NBA Cleveland @ Portland 10:05 10* Portland +1
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John Ryan
Montana vs. E. Washington
Play: Montana +3
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Montana as they travel to face Eastern Washington slated to start at 10:05 EST. AiS shows a 74% probability that Montana will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 55% probability of winning the game. AiS also shows an 85% probability Eastern Washington will not shoot better than 46% from the field. Note that Montana is 18-7 ATS over the past 3 seasons when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game. Given the heavy slate of games that I have had to research this is an abbreviated version. Always remember that the cast of systems and angles serve to reinforce the AiS grading.
Montana vs. E. Washington
Play: Montana +3
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Montana as they travel to face Eastern Washington slated to start at 10:05 EST. AiS shows a 74% probability that Montana will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 55% probability of winning the game. AiS also shows an 85% probability Eastern Washington will not shoot better than 46% from the field. Note that Montana is 18-7 ATS over the past 3 seasons when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game. Given the heavy slate of games that I have had to research this is an abbreviated version. Always remember that the cast of systems and angles serve to reinforce the AiS grading.
David Malinsky
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat
PICK: Miami Heat
One of the more intriguing quotes of this NBA season came from an unlikely source, Charlotte rookie point guard D. J. Augustin, after the Bobcats had upset the Celtics in overtime back on January 6th - "They come in and intimidate you and try to punk you. But if you don't back down from them, they kind of fold." There is some real merit to it – for as dominating as they were LY this is still a team with a lot of years under their belts, and if you can withstand their opening salvo, and have the moxie to compete, you can be in the game. As such, we are not sure the recent Boston “turnaround” in winning five straight means quite what the markets are making it to in tonight’s line. Four of those five games were home-and-away affairs against division foes New Jersey and Toronto that lacked the swagger and talent to compete. It is a different story tonight, and a Celtic team that is just 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS on the road outside the division since Thanksgiving will have their hands full.
While upgrading Boston for a recent run that may not have necessarily meant all that much, the markets have also failed to appreciate just how well Miami is playing. The Heat survived an arduous Western swing to go 4-3 and 5-2 ATS, and now get the benefit of having had a home practice yesterday for the first time in two full weeks. They are on a 10-6 SU run in their last 16 games, and note just how good it has been – they beat the Lakers and Cavaliers, who are #2 and #3 in the NBA in win percentage, in that span, and the losses came to those same two teams (including a tough 108-105 defeat at Los Angeles that went to the final minute), the Spurs (who were playing with a revenge motive) on this court, and the Magic, Rockets and Nuggets on the road. Every one of those teams is at least 10 games over .500 entering tonight.
There was some timing involved in the run. It can after a three-game losing streak in which they played their worst basketball of the season, and also at a time when they had three full days off at home, a chance to not only do some soul searching, but for Erik Spoelstra and his team to get on the same page. They did, and since then it has been playoff-caliber basketball. Now they are back at home with a chance to make a major statement, meanwhile catching Boston with a potentially distracted focus, with the Celtics having that showdown in Orlando tomorrow. A few days off has allowed Shawn Marion’s groin to heal, which puts him back in the starting lineup, and note that the trade rumors have done nothing to impact his game, nor that of the Heat – he has had double-doubles in each of his last three starts, and according to Dwane Wade - ”It hasn’t affected this team. He’s actually performed better of late.” We put the home team in this one right to the final possession against a visitor that is hard pressed to break anything open when a journeyman like Brian Scalabrine is not only having to start at C, but play major minutes.
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat
PICK: Miami Heat
One of the more intriguing quotes of this NBA season came from an unlikely source, Charlotte rookie point guard D. J. Augustin, after the Bobcats had upset the Celtics in overtime back on January 6th - "They come in and intimidate you and try to punk you. But if you don't back down from them, they kind of fold." There is some real merit to it – for as dominating as they were LY this is still a team with a lot of years under their belts, and if you can withstand their opening salvo, and have the moxie to compete, you can be in the game. As such, we are not sure the recent Boston “turnaround” in winning five straight means quite what the markets are making it to in tonight’s line. Four of those five games were home-and-away affairs against division foes New Jersey and Toronto that lacked the swagger and talent to compete. It is a different story tonight, and a Celtic team that is just 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS on the road outside the division since Thanksgiving will have their hands full.
While upgrading Boston for a recent run that may not have necessarily meant all that much, the markets have also failed to appreciate just how well Miami is playing. The Heat survived an arduous Western swing to go 4-3 and 5-2 ATS, and now get the benefit of having had a home practice yesterday for the first time in two full weeks. They are on a 10-6 SU run in their last 16 games, and note just how good it has been – they beat the Lakers and Cavaliers, who are #2 and #3 in the NBA in win percentage, in that span, and the losses came to those same two teams (including a tough 108-105 defeat at Los Angeles that went to the final minute), the Spurs (who were playing with a revenge motive) on this court, and the Magic, Rockets and Nuggets on the road. Every one of those teams is at least 10 games over .500 entering tonight.
There was some timing involved in the run. It can after a three-game losing streak in which they played their worst basketball of the season, and also at a time when they had three full days off at home, a chance to not only do some soul searching, but for Erik Spoelstra and his team to get on the same page. They did, and since then it has been playoff-caliber basketball. Now they are back at home with a chance to make a major statement, meanwhile catching Boston with a potentially distracted focus, with the Celtics having that showdown in Orlando tomorrow. A few days off has allowed Shawn Marion’s groin to heal, which puts him back in the starting lineup, and note that the trade rumors have done nothing to impact his game, nor that of the Heat – he has had double-doubles in each of his last three starts, and according to Dwane Wade - ”It hasn’t affected this team. He’s actually performed better of late.” We put the home team in this one right to the final possession against a visitor that is hard pressed to break anything open when a journeyman like Brian Scalabrine is not only having to start at C, but play major minutes.
Cajun Sports
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Under 184.5
The Rose Garden will be the site of tonight’s matchup between the host Portland Trailblazers and the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs enter tonight’s contest off a loss at the Lakers on Monday, 105 to 88 while the Blazers defeated the Bucks at home 102 to 85.
Cleveland is averaging 96.6 points per game on the road this season holding opponents to 90.9 points per game. They are 17-22 Under in all games this season, 7-12 Under on the road, 8-17 Under their last 25 games overall and 1-4 Under their last 5.
Portland is averaging 101.5 points per game this season at home while allowing opponents 92.8 points per game. The Blazers are 18-22 Under in all of their games this season and 8-10 Under at home.
This series has been dominated by the ‘under’ with 14 of the last 22 meetings falling below the posted total. This includes 8 of the last 11 meetings in Portland and the last two in a row when playing in the Northwest.
Data base research has uncovered two systems that are active for tonight’s game. Play Under NBA road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, 47-94 Under the last five seasons. Play Under NBA teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points with a team playing 6 or more games in 10 days, a team with a winning percentage of 60% to 75% playing a team with a winning record, 21-49 Under the last five seasons.
The pace and tempo of this game should be dictated by the Cleveland defense as they will be looking to bounce back from that loss to the Lakers. With the combination of fundamental, technical and situational factors all pointing to an ‘under’ we will call for this contest to fall below the posted total of 185.5.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Cleveland / Portland Under 185.5
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Under 184.5
The Rose Garden will be the site of tonight’s matchup between the host Portland Trailblazers and the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs enter tonight’s contest off a loss at the Lakers on Monday, 105 to 88 while the Blazers defeated the Bucks at home 102 to 85.
Cleveland is averaging 96.6 points per game on the road this season holding opponents to 90.9 points per game. They are 17-22 Under in all games this season, 7-12 Under on the road, 8-17 Under their last 25 games overall and 1-4 Under their last 5.
Portland is averaging 101.5 points per game this season at home while allowing opponents 92.8 points per game. The Blazers are 18-22 Under in all of their games this season and 8-10 Under at home.
This series has been dominated by the ‘under’ with 14 of the last 22 meetings falling below the posted total. This includes 8 of the last 11 meetings in Portland and the last two in a row when playing in the Northwest.
Data base research has uncovered two systems that are active for tonight’s game. Play Under NBA road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, 47-94 Under the last five seasons. Play Under NBA teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points with a team playing 6 or more games in 10 days, a team with a winning percentage of 60% to 75% playing a team with a winning record, 21-49 Under the last five seasons.
The pace and tempo of this game should be dictated by the Cleveland defense as they will be looking to bounce back from that loss to the Lakers. With the combination of fundamental, technical and situational factors all pointing to an ‘under’ we will call for this contest to fall below the posted total of 185.5.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Cleveland / Portland Under 185.5
Wunderdog
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Phoenix at New York (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: New York +6 (-110)
The Knicks might find a comfort zone here against a Phoenix team that still likes to get up-and-down the court. The Knicks stayed close enough at Phoenix to cover, and interestingly enough, this line is only 2.5 points lower. The Knicks played the other race-horse team - Golden State at home and won a high-scoring affair by 13 points. The Suns may be winning some games, but are a bad bet as they are just 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31. The have fallen short by trying to take down inflated lines with their high-flying offense. The Knicks are thriving as a 5-10.5 point dog, taking down the number in eight of their last nine and are the valued side here. I'm on the Knicks tonight.
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<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Phoenix at New York (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: New York +6 (-110)
The Knicks might find a comfort zone here against a Phoenix team that still likes to get up-and-down the court. The Knicks stayed close enough at Phoenix to cover, and interestingly enough, this line is only 2.5 points lower. The Knicks played the other race-horse team - Golden State at home and won a high-scoring affair by 13 points. The Suns may be winning some games, but are a bad bet as they are just 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31. The have fallen short by trying to take down inflated lines with their high-flying offense. The Knicks are thriving as a 5-10.5 point dog, taking down the number in eight of their last nine and are the valued side here. I'm on the Knicks tonight.
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Wunderdog NHL
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Anaheim at New York Islanders (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 5.5 -130
The Anaheim Ducks have not been a scoring machine on the road this season where they have played break-even hockey. The last 14 games show them posting just 37 goals for an average of just 2.6 per contest. Right now, and for much of the season, the Islanders’ offense has been a joke. They have not scored more than a single goal in each of the last four games. Despite the lack of offense, they have gotten some sound goaltending allowing just nine goals, or 2.25 a game. The Ducks are playing on consecutive nights here, where they have played UNDER to a 70-33-11 mark in their last 114! Enough said, I like the UNDER here.
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<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Anaheim at New York Islanders (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 5.5 -130
The Anaheim Ducks have not been a scoring machine on the road this season where they have played break-even hockey. The last 14 games show them posting just 37 goals for an average of just 2.6 per contest. Right now, and for much of the season, the Islanders’ offense has been a joke. They have not scored more than a single goal in each of the last four games. Despite the lack of offense, they have gotten some sound goaltending allowing just nine goals, or 2.25 a game. The Ducks are playing on consecutive nights here, where they have played UNDER to a 70-33-11 mark in their last 114! Enough said, I like the UNDER here.
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Johnny Guild
Wednesday January 21, 2009 8:00 PM EST.
New Jersey Nets (19-22) at New Orleans Hornets (25-13)
New Orleans Hornets will likely be without Tyson Chandler and David West again tonight, hopefully point guard Chris Paul will have another good night when they square off against the New Jersey Nets.
New Orleans is 1-4 in the last 5 clashes versus New Jersey at home, going 1-3-1 ATS, but the Nets top starters Vince Carter and Devin Harris have been struggling. New Jersey has lost three straight games and its last four on the road. Take New Orleans at home. The Hornets have won ten of its last 12 home games and have won three of the last four clashes against the Nets, including a 107-96 victory at New Orleans Arena in the last meeting on March 7.
New Orleans Hornets -5
Wednesday January 21, 2009 8:00 PM EST.
New Jersey Nets (19-22) at New Orleans Hornets (25-13)
New Orleans Hornets will likely be without Tyson Chandler and David West again tonight, hopefully point guard Chris Paul will have another good night when they square off against the New Jersey Nets.
New Orleans is 1-4 in the last 5 clashes versus New Jersey at home, going 1-3-1 ATS, but the Nets top starters Vince Carter and Devin Harris have been struggling. New Jersey has lost three straight games and its last four on the road. Take New Orleans at home. The Hornets have won ten of its last 12 home games and have won three of the last four clashes against the Nets, including a 107-96 victory at New Orleans Arena in the last meeting on March 7.
New Orleans Hornets -5
GINA
Wednesday, January 21st, 7:00 p.m. est.
Memphis Grizzlies (11-29) at Charlotte Bobcats (16-25)
The sad Grizzlies have dropped six straight games and 10 of its last 11. Meanwhile, the struggling Bobcats have won five of their last nine, an improvement. Both have played insufficiently, but Memphis has collapse, playing dreadful on both sides of the ball. Go with the Bobcats at home. The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games.
Charlotte Bobcats -6
Wednesday, January 21st, 7:00 p.m. est.
Memphis Grizzlies (11-29) at Charlotte Bobcats (16-25)
The sad Grizzlies have dropped six straight games and 10 of its last 11. Meanwhile, the struggling Bobcats have won five of their last nine, an improvement. Both have played insufficiently, but Memphis has collapse, playing dreadful on both sides of the ball. Go with the Bobcats at home. The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games.
Charlotte Bobcats -6
The free pick we are releasing today is in NCAA-BB. Southern Illini is visiting Inidiana St. tonight. The Saluki's are heating up covering 4 straight games vs tough opponents Bradley,Witchita St.,Evansville,and Creighton. They gave Creighton a scare as a 10 point dog taking them into O.T. in a frustrating 73-72 road loss. Indiana St. comes in to the game with leading scorer(14 ppg) Harry Marshall questionable with a bad hamstring. Marshall has missed the last 2 games and Indiana St. is struggling averaging just 54.5 points per game.
Southern Illinois is hot right now shooting 46% from the field and 45% beyond the arc. Meanwhile Indiana St. comes into the contest tonight just 1-6 ATS @ home. With or without Marshall Indiana St. should struggle tonight vs. Coach Lowery's squad. Take Southern Illinois-4.5
Chris T.
Southern Illinois is hot right now shooting 46% from the field and 45% beyond the arc. Meanwhile Indiana St. comes into the contest tonight just 1-6 ATS @ home. With or without Marshall Indiana St. should struggle tonight vs. Coach Lowery's squad. Take Southern Illinois-4.5
Chris T.
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