Service Plays Wednesday 09/02/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

San Francisco (72-60) at Philadelphia (76-53)

Brad Penny (7-8, 5.61 ERA with Boston) is slated to make his Giants debut at Citizens Bank Park against the Phillies, who counter with lefty J.A. Happ (10-3, 2.63) in the middle contest of a three-game series between playoff contenders.

Philadelphia ace Cole Hamels held the Giants to a season-low two hits in a complete-game 1-0 victory on Tuesday. The Phillies are on hot streaks of 37-16 overall, 22-8 at home, 6-0 against the N.L. West, 5-0 on Wednesday and 8-2 versus teams with a winning record.

San Francisco arrived in Philly on a 5-1 run, but it has now dropped four in a row and five of its last six on the highway, and the Giants are now 11 games under .500 as a visitor this season (28-39). Bruce Bochy’s bunch has also lost 18 of its last 26 on the road to lefty starters, but it has won five straight on Wednesday.

The Giants are still on a 5-2 roll against Philadelphia, but six of those seven games were in San Francisco. The Giants are now just 3-11 in their last 14 visits to Citizens Bank Park.

Penny was released from the Red Sox a week ago, not long after allowing eight runs on 10 hits in four inning of a 20-11 loss to the Yankees at Fenway Park on Aug. 21. The veteran right-hander had just one win since mid-June, and he’s 1-5 with a 7.82 ERA since the All-Star break after going 6-3 with a 4.71 ERA in 17 starters before the break.

Penny, who began his career pitching in the N.L. East for the Marlins before spending four years with the Dodgers, is 8-4 with a 3.72 ERA in 20 career starts against the Phillies, including 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two games at Citizens Bank.

Happ delivered his sixth consecutive quality start at Pittsburgh on Thursday, allowing three runs in eight innings, but he got little offensive support and took the 3-2 loss, ending the Phillies’ string of four straight victories behind the young southpaw . Happ is 7-3 with a 2.52 ERA in 16 starts since the beginning of June; he’s 4-1 with a 3.77 ERA in 14 appearances (seven starts) at home; and he’s yet to face the Giants in his brief career.

The under is 18-3-1 in Happ’s last 22 starts overall, 4-0 in his last four at home and 5-0 in his last five on Wednesday. Conversely, four of Penny’s last five starts with the Red Sox hurdled the total.

As a team, Philadelphia is on “under” stretches of 5-1 overall, 7-1 against winning teams, 37-17-2 after a victory and 15-7 on Wednesday. Similarly, the Giants carry “under” trends of 19-8 on the road against southpaw starters and 7-1 on Wednesday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston (77-54) at Tampa Bay (71-60)

Red Sox ace Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.80 ERA) looks to put a horrific month of August behind him when he leads the Red Sox against Matt Garza (7-9, 3.95) and the Rays at Tropicana Field.

Boston cruised to an 8-4 victory on Tuesday and has now won four in a row, seven of its last eight and 11 of their last 14 to open up a three-game lead over Texas in the wild-card race. Terry Francona’s squad is on additional positive runs of 8-0 against right-handed starter, 5-1 versus the A.L. East and 9-3 on Wednesday. However, the Red Sox have still lost 17 of their last 26 to teams with a winning record, going 2-12 in the last 14 on the road versus winning clubs.

The Rays, who now trail Boston by six games, are 10-6 in their last 16 games overall and they’ve won 11 of last 16 at home. Going back further, Tampa is on a 37-15 roll at Tropicana Field, and is on additional streaks of 6-3 in A.L. East action, 48-16 in the second game of a series and 69-29 when hosting opponents with a losing road mark.

The Rays are still 8-5 in the 13 clashes with Boston this season and they’ve taken 16 of the last 22 meetings at Tropicana Field, including last year’s American League Championship Series, which Tampa Bay won in seven games.

Over his last three starts, Beckett has surrendered 20 runs on 23 hits – including 10 home runs – over 18 1/3 innings, good for a 9.82 ERA, yet the Red Sox still managed to win two of those contests, including a 6-5, rain-delayed victory over Toronto at home on Friday. With Beckett pitching, the Red Sox are still on positive streaks of 20-7 overall, 11-3 in divisional play, 8-3 on the road and 7-2 on Wednesday. He’s 6-4 with a 4.10 ERA in 13 road starts in 2009.

On the other hand, the Sox have lost eight of Beckett’s last 11 outings on field turf, four of his last five versus winning teams and four of his last five at Tropicana Field. Including two playoff starts last October, Beckett is 7-4 with a 4.23 ERA in 15 games against the Rays (1-1 with a 5.60 ERA in three starts this year).

Garza got rocked for six runs in five innings in Friday’s 6-2 loss at Detroit, just the second time in his last nine outings that he’s given up more than three runs in a game. Garza is 4-4 with a 3.26 ERA in 14 home starts this season, and the Rays are 9-3 in the right-hander’s last 12 efforts at The Trop.

Additionally, with Garza on the hill, the Rays are on runs of 4-1 against A.L. East rivals, 7-1 against Boston (playoffs included) and 6-0 the last six times he’s faced the Sox in Tampa. For his career, Garza is 7-1 with a 2.66 ERA in 12 starts versus Boston, including a pair of dominating playoff victories in last year’s ALCS. He’s faced the Sox four times this season, going 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA.

Behind Beckett, the Red Sox are on “over” runs of 4-0 overall and 5-1 on Wednesday, but the under is 6-2 in his last eight outings against Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Garza carries nothing but “under” trends, including 38-17-3 in his last 58 starts overall, 6-1-1 at home, 7-0 against the A.L. East, 8-1-1 when facing winning opponents and 4-1 when he battles the BoSox. Finally, as a team, the Rays are on “under” stretches of 4-2 overall, 5-2-1 at home, 17-9 against A.L. East foes and 7-3 on Wednesday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA LONG SHEET


Wednesday, September 2

PHOENIX (20 - 9) at INDIANA (20 - 8) - 9/2/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 74-51 ATS (+17.9 Units) in August or September games since 1997.
INDIANA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) against Western conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 4-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 3-2 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bet

Phoenix Mercury at Indiana Fever (-3.5, 176.5)

The Phoenix Mercury are getting into postseason form with just four games left on the schedule. But now face the best team in the East with the WNBA’s top seed and home-court advantage for the entire playoffs on the line.

Heading into Tuesday’s game with the Detroit Shock, the Mercury took back-to-back wins over the Sun and Sparks to put some space between them and the Seattle Storm in the Western Conference standings. They are 8-3 SU and ATS against the Eastern Conference this year, as of Tuesday.

"We have a goal to have the best record, we fought this far to get to a position where we have an opportunity to do something really good in the regular season," leading scorer Diana Taurasi told the media following Saturday’s win over Connecticut. "I think that always carries over into the postseason, but we still have a lot of work to do."

Wednesday’s games pit the Mercury’s top-ranked offense against the premier defensive club in the WNBA. The Fever are allowing a league-low 72.1 points per game this season and held Phoenix to 83 points – almost 10 points below their season average – when the teams met in Arizona in early August. Indiana won that matchup 90-83 as a 4-point road underdog.

"We're not going to get the same Phoenix team we got out in Phoenix," Fever guard Katie Douglas told the Indianapolis Star. "We're not going to be assured that just because we're playing them at home that we're going to get a win. We know they're an explosive team."

The Fever have won and covered in the last three clashes with the Mercury and have a covered the spread in seven of their last 10 meetings going back to 2004. Indiana owns a 13-2 record at home and has covered in 10 of those games.

Pick: Indiana

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB DUNKEL


Atlanta at Florida
The Marlins look to bounce back from yesterday's loss and build on their 5-1 record in Rick VandenHurk's last 6 starts following a team loss in the previous game. Florida is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+150). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2

Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.484; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.132
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+115); Under

Game 903-904: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Paulino) 14.229; Cubs (Lilly) 15.726
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-220); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-220); N/A

Game 905-906: Washington at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 13.805; San Diego (Correia) 15.001
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-130); Under

Game 907-908: San Francisco at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Penny) 15.358; Philadelphia (Happ) 16.561
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-200); Under

Game 909-910: Atlanta at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 14.667; Florida (VandenHurk) 14.875
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+150); Under

Game 911-912: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 15.259; St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.839
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-260); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-260); Under

Game 913-914: NY Mets at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Redding) 14.234; Colorado (Jimenez) 15.087
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-270); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-270); Under

Game 915-916: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 16.084; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 17.290
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-170); Over

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.491; Minnesota (Duensing) 15.747
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Over

Game 919-920: Kansas City at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 14.876; Oakland (Cahill) 14.588
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+150); Under

Game 921-922: LA Angels at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Kazmir) 15.647; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.881
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+115); Over

Game 923-924: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Laffey) 14.978; Detroit (Porcello) 16.028
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Over

Game 925-926: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 16.334; Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.096
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Under

Game 927-928: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.500; Baltimore (Berken) 16.622
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-230); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+210); Under

Game 929-930: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Richmond) 15.256; Texas (Hunter) 14.706
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-190); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+180); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Morrison System Plays 09/02
MLB:

[C] bet WhiSOX ML official

[C] bet Orioles RL unofficial

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

W. Sox(RL)
Rays

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

September 2, 2009

The Hondo Kiss of Death worked its black magic last night on the Rays, who mysteriously lost their mastery of the Sawx and caused the deficit to grow to 1,055 clarkes.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch'll put some coin on Penny -- 10 units on SF. Also, he'll try to build a winner by laying some heavy lumber with CC & Co. -- 10 on the Yanks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

317 - 214 run 60 % on free selections

Red Sox

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe wiz Bonus Plays

pirates
milw/stl under
ariz/lad under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA DUNKEL


Phoenix at Indiana
The Mercury look to bounce back from last night's loss in Detroit and build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games following a SU defeat. Phoenix is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by just 3. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2

Game 651-652: Phoenix at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 112.188; Indiana 115.102
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 176 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3 1/2); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR WEDNESDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )


Angels (Kazmir)

SEATTLE (HERNANDEZ) -115 (1)


Mets (Redding)

COLORADO (JIMENEZ) -270 (2)


Houston (Paulino)

CUBS (LILLY) -220 (3)


Run Totals

Boston / Tampa Bay UNDER 8 ½

Cleveland / Detroit OVER 9

Mets / Colorado OVER 9

Arizona / Dodgers OVER 7 ½

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gina

Wednesday, September 2nd, 2009 7:05 p.m. est.

San Francisco Giants (72-60) at Philadelphia Phillies (76-53)
(R) Brad Penny (0-0) vs. (L) J.A. Happ (10-3)

San Francisco's Brad Penny makes his Giants debut. The right-hander was 7-8 with a 5.61 ERA with the Red Sox, but was 1-6 in his last 11 starts. Penny is 8-4 with a 3.72 ERA in 20 career starts against the Phillies, 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last six against them.

Philadelphia's J.A. Happ (10-3, 2.63) lost for the first time in five starts, a 3-2 defeat at Pittsburgh on Thursday. The southpaw is 2-1 with a 1.99 ERA in his last three starts. Happ will make his first start against the Giants.
The Giants have dropped their last four road games, just 28-39 away from home this season and have had difficulties against the Phillies in Philadelphia. San Francisco has lost 11 of its last 14 contests at Citizens Bank Park. Go with the Phillies at home. Philadelphia has won 22 of their last 30 home games and is 7-3 in Happ's last 10 home starts.

Philadelphia Phillies -210

 

[Born2Booze]

Lance's Lock

Overall record: 836-724-31

Current streak: 1 loss

Todays play: Seattle -125

 

[Born2Booze]

Randall the Handle

CINCINNATI -1½ +1.70 over Pittsburgh
The Reds have momentum for the first time in awhile and when you’re winning, coming to the park is fun. Cinci has won three in a row, all over the Pirates and they’ve also won eight of its last 10 and that includes a three game sweep in Milwaukee in which they scored 20 runs. Suddenly, the offense is clicking, as they hung an 11 on the Bucs yesterday and have scored 22 runs in the first three games of this series. Homer Bailey is coming off back-to-back great outings and perhaps this guy is finally finding his groove. Bailey threw an eight-inning shutout against the Dodgers in his latest and prior to that, in Pittsburgh, he threw a seven-inning, four-hit gem. Reports are his fastball is hitting 98 MPH with regularity and for the first time since he was a #1 draft pick his confidence is soaring. The Reds will see 10-game winner Zach Duke, one of the worst 10-game winners in major league history. Duke surrendered 11 hits and seven runs in three innings in his last start and he’s throwing for a team that has lost 44 of its last 57 road games. Over his last 17 innings, covering three starts, he has five k’s and an ERA of 6.23. The Reds are feeling it, the Pirates are a complete disaster and with a take-back of +1.70 laying the extra half run the Reds certainly have to be considered a decent play. Play Cincinnati -1½ +1.70 (Risking 2 units).


MINNESOTA +1.40 over Chicago
If the South Siders were going to win a game in this series it certainly looked like yesterday was going to be the day. John Danks vs Jeff Manship was the match-up and on paper it sure looked like the South Side had a significant edge. However, this team continued its downward spiral, pretty much playing themselves out of contention with another loss. Ever since they picked up Alex Rios this team has done a complete 180. They’ve lost 20 of its last 26 road games and overall they’ve lost nine of 10. They’ve struggled at this venue for years and they’ll go into this game with a huge psychological disadvantage. Folks, the South Side is reeling and the fact that they appear to have an edge on the mound today means jack. If the better pitcher won each time we’d all be rich but alas, that is not the case. The Twins smell a kill here and there’s likely not a thing the White Sox can do about it, as they’ve thrown in the proverbial towel. Play: Minnesota +1.40 (Risking 2 units).


Atlanta -1½ +1.03 over FLORIDA
Speaking of teams with a psychological advantage, one needs not look much further than the Braves over the Fish. This was a huge series for both teams that could ultimately decide the wildcard winner. The Braves took the first two games of this series having beaten Josh Johnson and following that up with Tim Hudson pitching the Braves to victory in his first start in 13 months. The Braves will now go for the sweep in good shape with a serious advantage on the mound. Rick Vanderhurk has lasted a combined 14 innings over his last three starts and over that stretch his ERA was 7.98. In 31 frames this season he has allowed an alarming nine bombs. He’s being thrown into a very tough situation with a lot of pressure on him and it’s unlikely he’ll respond well. Javier Vazquez throws nothing but strikes and is very accustomed to pressure situations. He’s walked three batters and struck out 21 over his last 20 innings. On the year he’s walked 35 batters and has 192 K’s in 176 frames. Vazquez has won four straight on the road and overall he’s 7-2 with a 2.96 ERA in 12 road starts. Play: Atlanta -1½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).

 

[Born2Booze]

DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
9/2/09- Wednesday

we hit over 60% in august
56% on the season

68% on all top plays


15*-A.L. TOTAL OF THE MONTH
LAA/SEA OVER 8

10*-florida+130
10*-oakland-160
7*-t.b.-113
7*-pitt.+110
5*-wash.+120


***paid and confirmed***

 

[Ryangene]

FantasySportsGametime




MLB Baseball

100* Play Texas (-180) over Toronto (MLB PLAY)

Toronto has lost 13 of the last 17 games as an underdog of +150 or higher and they have also lost 19 of the last 26 road games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs. Scott Richmond has lost 3 consecutive games as an underdog of +150 or higher and he is also 0-4 when pitching in the 2nd half of this season.






50* Play LA Dodgers (-170) over Arizona (MLB PLAY)

Chad Billingsley has won 8 of the last 10 games vs. division opponents and he has also won 3 consecutive games when pitching on a Wednesday. Max Scherzer has lost 8 of the last 11 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is also 1-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.75.

 

[Born2Booze]

Insider Sports Report

(4-2 This week) + 6 Units

4 Star St. Louis Cardinals- 1 1/2 RL

3 Star Boston Red Sox

 

[marksdolphins]

Early Daytime Grand Slam!
Steve Merril has a powerful play on the Early Daytime card for Wednesday - Pirates/Reds - 12:35 pm ET - Guaranteed Over/Under that will start your day right!

Pirates/Reds under 8.5

Paid and confirmed

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kiki Sports

1* Washington
1* Seattle
1* Boston