INSIDE THE LINES
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 8
Updated by 2:00 P.M. Eastern Weekdays
Updated by 9:00 A.M. Eastern Weekends
NBA
Portland (49-28, 41-36 ATS) at San Antonio (50-27, 38-37-2 ATS)
The Trail Blazers wrap up a four-game Southwest Division road trip tonight when they visit the AT&T Center to play the Spurs in a matchup of playoff-bound squads.
Portland bounced back from Sunday’s ugly 102-88 loss at Houston with last night’s 96-93 victory at Memphis, failing to cover as a seven-point favorite. The Trail Blazers have won five of their last six games (4-2 ATS), and despite failing to cash in their last two outings, they’re on an 8-3 ATS run going back to mid-March, including 5-2 ATS on the highway.
The Spurs rebounded from their own embarrassing loss on Sunday – 101-81 at Cleveland as a six-point underdog – with Tuesday’s 99-89 victory over the Thunder as a six-point favorite. San Antonio is still just 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five, including a stunning 96-95 loss to Oklahoma City as a 13-point chalk in its most recent home game. Gregg Popovich’s club, which will play the rest of the regular season and playoffs without All-Star Manu Ginobili (injury), has cashed just four times in its last 12 contests overall and is just 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.
The home team has won all three head-to-head meetings this season both SU and ATS, including the Spurs’ 99-84 victory as a five-point home chalk on Feb. 25. Portland has lost 11 straight games in San Antonio going back to 2002, and it is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to AT&T Center. Finally, the home team has cashed in each of the last five series clashes.
In addition to ATS runs of 8-3 overall and 5-2 on the road, the Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against Western Conference opponents, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five on Wednesday. San Antonio’s ATS slides include 4-8 overall, 1-6 at home, 0-4 against Northwest Division squads, 1-4 against winning teams and 3-9 on Wednesday. The lone positive pointspread trend for the Spurs is their 6-2 ATS streak when playing on back-to-back days.
The over is on runs of 5-2 for Portland against Southwest Division teams, 6-1-1 for the Spurs overall, 4-1 for the Spurs on Wednesday, 6-2-1 for the Spurs against Northwest Division foes and 6-2 in this rivalry (3-0 this season).
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and OVER
Utah (47-30, 38-39 ATS) at Dallas (46-31, 37-40 ATS)
The Jazz continue a brutal three-game road swing against Southwest Division foes with a stop at American Airlines Center for a clash with the Mavericks, who are trying to lock up the Western Conference’s final playoff berth.
Utah is in the midst of a stretch in which it is playing five of six games on the road, with all five roadies coming against playoff-caliber competition (Portland, Denver, New Orleans, Dallas and San Antonio). The Jazz lost the first two games in double-digit fashion to the Blazers and Nuggets, then went home and got stunned by the TWolves 103-102 as a 13-point favorite. However, they got back on track with Sunday’s 108-94 victory at New Orleans as a 2½-point underdog, ending an 0-6 ATS slump and clinching a playoff berth in the process.
Dallas can earn the Western Conference’s eighth and final postseason bid with a victory tonight and a Suns loss at New Orleans. Speaking of the Suns, the Mavericks are coming off Sunday’s 140-116 blowout win over Phoenix, cashing easily as a 3½-point home favorite. Despite that result, Dallas has split its last 12 games, going 5-7 ATS. On the bright side, the Mavs are on an 11-1 SU run at home (8-4 ATS).
The home team has dominated this rivalry lately, with the host taking each of the last seven meetings (6-1 ATS), all as a favorite, including all three clashes this year (3-0 ATS). Going back several seasons, the home team is on a 20-6-1 ATS roll. Utah has gotten the money in five of the last six battles, but the Jazz are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 visits to Dallas. Finally, the winner has scored at least 97 points in each of the last 10 meetings, going over triple digits seven times.
The Jazz are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games against Southwest Division squads, but otherwise they’re in pointspread funks of 1-6 overall, 2-6 on the road, 2-9 against winning teams, 1-5 versus the Western Conference and 1-4 when playing on two days of rest. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven when playing after two days off and 16-5 ATS in its last 21 Wednesday outings, but the Mavs are also in ATS funks of 7-15 against the Northwest Division, 1-5 after a SU win, 1-4 after a non-cover and 1-7 following a double-digit victory.
For Utah, the over is on runs of 5-0 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 4-0 against the Western Conference and 6-2 on Wednesday. The over is also 8-2 in the Mavericks’ last 10 home games and 5-2 in their last seven on Wednesday. Finally, five of the last six Jazz-Mavs meetings in Dallas have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (1-1) at Houston (1-1)
Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09 ERA in 2008) takes the ball for the Cubs in the rubber game of a three-game season-opening series against the Astros, who are scheduled counter with Brian Moehler (11-8, 4.56 ERA).
Houston needed 10 innings to put away Chicago last night, winning 3-2 one night after dropping the opener, 3-1. Chicago is still on positive streaks of 22-10 on the road, 10-5 against Central Division rivals and 11-4 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Astros are on runs of 22-8 at home, 22-8 against Central Division foes, 6-2 against lefty starters, 63-31 versus southpaws at home and 4-1 on Wednesday.
The visitor had won six straight meetings in this rivalry prior to Houston’s triumph Tuesday.
Lilly went 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his final four starts last season, but didn’t get the opportunity to pitch in the playoffs as the Cubs got swept in the best-of-5 divisional round against the Dodgers. Chicago went 10-3 in the southpaw’s last 13 outings, including 7-1 in his last eight road starts. Going back further, the Cubs have won 20 of Lilly’s last 28 starts, including four straight against N.L. Central foes.
Lilly was stellar on the highway last season, going 10-4 with a 3.77 ERA in 19 starts, including 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA in two appearances at Minute Maid Park. For his career, Lilly is 3-1 with a 2.52 ERA in six starts against the Astros (2-0, 1.40 ERA in three starts in 2008).
Houston won eight of Moehler’s last 12 starts in 2008, including five of six at home, even though the right-hander surrendered three earned runs or more in half of those 12 outings. Moehler made 17 appearances (14 starts) at home last year, going 6-3 with a 4.36 ERA. Finally, he’s 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA in 10 career appearances (seven starts) against the Cubs, including 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA in four starts last season.
The under is 38-15-1 in the last 54 Cubs-Astros battles, including 25-6 in the last 31 clashes at Minute Maid Park (2-0 in this series). Additionally, the under is on runs of 5-1 for the Cubs on the road, 6-1 for the Cubs in divisional games, 7-2 for the Astros overall, 9-2 for the Astros at home, 19-6 for the Astros against the Central Division and 18-7-1 with Moehler starting.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (0-1) at Boston (1-0)
The Red Sox look to build on Tuesday’s season-opening victory over Tampa Bay when they send John Lester (16-6, 3.21 ERA) to the hill in the middle game of a three-game series at Fenway Park. The Rays will counter with Rays’ Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49) in a battle of hard-throwing southpaws.
Boston rode a sensational start from ace Josh Beckett to a 5-3 victory Tuesday after Monday’s scheduled opener was rained out. It was the first meeting between the A.L. East rivals since they faced off in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series in October.
With yesterday’s win, the Red Sox are now on a 65-29 run at home and they’re on additional positive streaks of 8-3 at home against southpaw starters, 12-5 on Wednesday, 36-16 with Lester on the hill overall, 22-4 when Lester pitches at Fenway and 17-7 when Lester takes on divisional rivals. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is still on runs of 10-4 in A.L. East games, 11-4 on Wednesday and 21-10 with Kazmir on the hill, but the Rays are 4-9 in their last 13 against lefty starters.
Despite Tuesday’s setback, the Rays are still 11-6 in the last 17 clashes in this rivalry, including last year’s ALCS.
Kazmir made five playoff starts last fall, going 1-1 with a 4.21 ERA. The Rays won the first two games over the White Sox (6-2) and Red Sox (9-8), both at home, but they lost his last three, all by one-run margins, including a wild 8-7 loss at Boston in the ALCS. Kazmir then faced the Phillies twice in the World Series, giving up five runs in 10 innings with Tampa losing 3-2 at home in Game 1 and 4-3 on the road in the clinching Game 5.
Kazmir went 4-6 with a 4.10 ERA in 13 road outings last year, including 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two regular-season starts at Fenway Park. For his career, Kazmir is 6-7 with a 3.62 ERA against in 21 starts against the the Red Sox (4-4 with a 3.02 ERA in 11 games at Fenway).
Lester, who is 27-8, 3.81 ERA in 60 big-league outings (59 starts), had a breakout season in 2008, yielding three earned runs or fewer in 21 of his final 25 regular-season starts. He followed that up with two brilliant performances against the Angels in the American League Division Series (one unearned run allowed on 10 hits in 14 innings). However, Lester got tagged in two starts against Tampa Bay in the ALCS, allowing eight runs (seven earned) on 14 hits (three home runs) in 12 2/3 innings (5.68 ERA), losing both games by the combined score of 12-2.
Lester is 16-2 with a 3.30 ERA in 31 games (30 starts) all-time at Fenway Park, including 11-1 with a 2.49 ERA in 17 starts last year. Also, prior to the playoffs, Lester had gone 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA in seven regular-season starts against Tampa Bay, with the Red Sox winning all seven contests.
With Lester on the mound, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 on grass and 5-1-1 on Wednesday. Conversely, the over is 8-3 in Kazmir’s last 11 starts overall, 6-0 in his last six against the A.L. East and 7-0 in his last seven against the BoSox.
The under is on runs of 6-1-1 for Tampa Bay overall and 6-1-1 for Tampa Bay against southpaw starters, but the over is on stretches of 4-21-1 for Tampa Bay on the road and 4-2-1 for Boston on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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