STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 9th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 9/9/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #24
•2015 MLB Season Could Have Games In November: There could be November baseball next season. Major League Baseball announced its tentative schedule for the 2015 season, with the full Opening Day slated for April 6, preceded by an ESPN Sunday night game on April 5. Perhaps more significant is the fact that the regular season ends on Sunday, October 4, which is later than usual. The later start and finish to the 2015 season means Game 6 and 7 of the World Series, if necessary, would be played in November. Like this season, the 2015 schedule features everyday interleague play. One change is a shift in scheduling natural interleague rivals, such as the New York, Los Angeles and Chicago teams. Instead of being played in late spring or early summer, many of those matchups will take place in April and September. Also, instead of a pair of two-game series, the teams will play a pair of three-game series.
•Kemp Rebounding With Strong Second Half For Dodgers: Three years ago, Matt Kemp was in the conversation as the best player in baseball. He led the National League in runs scored, home runs and RBIs in 2011 and finished runner-up to Ryan Braun for the NL MVP -- a controversial vote at the time. After the season, he was rewarded handsomely. The Dodgers signed him to an eight-year, $160 million contract extension that was the largest in National League history at the time. Two injury-ravaged seasons ensued with Kemp's production dropping precipitously. He has finally rebounded with a strong second half in 2014. But Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said it is "not fair" to expect Kemp to be the same player he was in 2011. "I don't know if we should be trying to compare and go back three years," Mattingly said.
"He's doing the job. He's swinging the bat well. Going back three years is not fair -- three years of age, three years of injuries. "You're going back three years, you're going back to the best year of his career with ankle surgery and shoulder surgery in between. Guys change every year. Honestly, this is him getting back to the player he's been his whole career." Kemp was hobbled by hamstring, shoulder and ankle injuries that limited him to a total of 179 games over the past two seasons. He had two shoulder surgeries and microfracture surgery on his ankle that has clearly robbed him of his speed. Since the All-Star break, though, Kemp is batting .307 with 11 home runs (including one in Sunday's 7-2 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks) and 33 RBIs. "I think I still have it in me," Kemp said of the 2011 standard. "It's all about getting healthy, getting my legs back under me."
Around The League
-- Derek Jeter's retirement tour reached Yankee Stadium on Sunday, creating a unique and perhaps awkward situation of an active player being honored while his team is still trying to make the postseason. The ceremony was a typical lavish Yankee ceremony but it was an appropriate one as the contingent of former Yankees, including Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Joe Torre, won a combined 41 championships with the team. It also included Hall of Famers Michael Jordan, Cal Ripken Jr. and Dave Winfield, each of whom share a different link to Jeter's 20-year career path. "It was very strange," Jeter said. "It was kind of a different situation. It was a unique situation. I don't know if there's been many people who have been in that situation so it's kind of tough to explain how you feel.”
“You appreciate all the support, all the kind words people are saying but at the same time you're still trying to play a game. It's difficult to juggle at times but it's a very, very, unique situation." It was typical Jeter, however. He expressed gratitude to the millions of fans that had watched him play, the 400-plus teammates, the managers and coaches and the Steinbrenner family, who paid him very well over the last 20 years. The speech ended with Jeter reminding everyone that there was a game to be played and possibly won. "I enjoyed it. I enjoyed every minute of it but when I was done speaking and people were standing around, I thought it was time to say that we had a game," Jeter said. "I definitely enjoyed it but I was well aware that we had to play a game."
-- Detroit Tigers right-hander Joakim Soria will throw live batting practice on Monday and could be activated this week sometime. Soria has been on the disabled list since August 10th with an oblique strain. "If all goes well, he could be game-ready in a couple of days," manager Brad Ausmus said.
-- Colorado Rockies catcher Wilin Rosario (left wrist inflammation) was eligible to come off the 15-day disabled list Sunday and was activated. He pinch-hit in the eighth and doubled to right-center. Right fielder Michael Cuddyer (left hamstring strain) will be activated Monday when he is eligible to come off the 15-day DL.
-- San Diego Padres manager Bud Black said it was too early to tell whether right-hander Joe Wieland would get another start after giving up seven hits and four runs Saturday night in 2 1/3 innings in his first major league appearance since he underwent Tommy John surgery July 27th, 2012.
-- Tampa Bay Rays center fielder Desmond Jennings, who missed his 10th consecutive game with left knee soreness, is unlikely to play again this season, manager Joe Maddon said. Jennings, who batted .244 with 10 homers and 15 steals in 144 games, hurt the knee with a foul ball before the All-Star break and an MRI confirmed a bruise.
-- The Baltimore Orioles signed Cuban right-hander Lazaro Leyva to an international free-agent contract, according to CBS Sports. The deal is pending a physical and age verification. Leyva would be the third Cuban signed by Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette, joining outfielders Dariel Alvarez and Henry Urrutiato.
-- The Texas Rangers moved right-hander Yu Darvish to the 60-day DL and called up infielder Guilder Rodriguez from Double-A Frisco. Darvish has been shut down for the remainder of the season. The 28-year-old right-hander went on the disabled list Aug. 13 with mild inflammation in his right elbow. Rodriguez, 31, has played the most minor league games (1,095) among all current players who have no major league experience, a span of 14 years.
-- Minnesota Twins left-hander Glen Perkins remains day-to-day with a sore neck. MRI results Saturday revealed no structural damage or pinched nerves.
-- Yankees right-hander David Phelps (right elbow inflammation) threw a 31-pitch simulated game without pain while right-hander Masahiro Tanaka (right elbow inflammation) played catch in the outfield.
-- Kansas City Royals left-hander Danny Duffy was headed back to get an MRI after leaving Saturday's start after one pitch with a sore left shoulder. Manager Ned Yost speculated that there's a good possibility that Duffy has biceps tendinitis but added that he is not a doctor.
-- Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Melky Cabrera will undergo season-ending surgery sometime this week to repair his fractured right pinky finger, which was injured Friday.
-- Miami Marlins right-hander Henderson Alvarez (left oblique strain) threw a bullpen session on Sunday and did not have any pain.
-- Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder A.J. Pollock was not in the starting lineup for the second game in a row. Pollock has been slowed with an injured groin.
Four MLB Value Bets For Pennant And World Series Winners
With just three weeks left in the major league regular season, the playoff pictures in the American and National Leagues have started to come into focus. That's great news for bettors seeking value in teams on the periphery of the playoff race. A little faith in a long shot can pay off handsomely come World Series time. Here are two teams from each league that could come through despite long odds (courtesy Bet365):
American League
•Seattle Mariners (+1,000 to win pennant, +1,800 to win World Series)
Seattle is in the hunt for both the first and second AL wild card spots and should be a good bet to lock one of them down on the strength of the best pitching staff in the majors (3.03 ERA). The Mariners have also been swinging some hot bats, averaging nearly six runs during a five-game winning streak that came to an end in a 1-0 loss to Texas Sunday. Seattle has 10 games remaining against Oakland and the Angels - the two teams ahead of them in the West - but six games against Houston should mitigate that.
•Cleveland Indians (+2,800 to win pennant, +5,000 to win World Series)
The Indians are a true long shot to do anything in the postseason. They're not even expected to make it, sitting at just 12 percent odds to do the unexpected and leapfrog the other challengers for a wild card spot. But Cleveland comes into the week on a high following a three-game sweep of the White Sox and has four games left on an 11-game homestand. Add in the fact that 13 of the Indians' final 20 games come against teams with sub-.500 records, and the Tribe at least have a puncher's chance.
National League
•Atlanta Braves (+1,200 to win pennant, +2,500 to win World Series)
Despite ranking near the bottom of the league on offense, the Braves still have a remote chance of reaching the postseason thanks to a sensational pitching staff that could do plenty of damage if Atlanta does get to the playoffs. The Braves will play six of their remaining nine road games against bottom feeders Texas and Philadelphia, as well as a three-game home series against the Mets. Of the Braves' 10 remaining "difficult" games (Washington x 6, Pittsburgh x 4), seven of those will be played in Atlanta.
•Pittsburgh Pirates (+1,600 to win pennant, +3,500 to win World Series)
Pittsburgh is on a roll following an impressive road sweep against the Chicago Cubs and looks to carry that momentum into a four-game set against the host Phillies. The Pirates' best chance of securing one of the two NL wild card spots will come afterward, when they enjoy a nine-game homestand against the Cubs, Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers. Season-ending road series versus Atlanta and Cincinnati will be challenging, but Pittsburgh has the offense (second in the majors with a .328 OBP) to challenge for a postseason berth.
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Betting Notes - Tuesday
National League
•Pirates-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Volquez is 1-0, 1.37 in his last three starts.
--Buchanan is 0-2, 4.23 in his last five starts.
--Pittsburgh won its last four games, allowing eleven runs.
--Philly won 11 of its last 17 games, but lost last two.
--Six of last nine Philly games went over the total.
•Braves-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Santana is 4-1, 3.72 in his last six starts.
--Zimmerman is 4-0, 2.49 in his last seven starts.
--Braves lost five of their last seven games.
--Washington won four of its six home games.
--Nine of last ten Zimmerman starts went over.
•Cardinals-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Wacha is 1-2, 4.05 in his last four starts.
--Leake is 1-2, 4.42 in his last six starts.
--Cardinals won nine of their last ten games.
--Cincinnati lost six of its last seven games.
--Seven of last ten Cardinal games went over total.
•Rockies-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Bergman is 2-0, 3.38 in his last three starts.
--DeGrom is 1-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts.
--Colorado won six of its last nine games.
--Mets won six of their last eight games.
--Four of last five Bergman starts went over total.
•Marlins-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Koehler is 2-0, 3.48 in his last five starts.
--Garza is 1-1, 3.00 in his last four starts.
--Marlins lost four of their last six road games.
--Milwaukee lost 12 of its last 13 games.
--Last four Milwaukee games went over the total.
•Padres-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Cashner is 0-1, 2.88 in his last four starts.
--Hernandez is 1-2, 7.20 in his last three starts.
--Padres lost seven of their last nine games.
--Dodgers won five of their last six games.
--Five of Cashner's six road starts stayed under.
•Diamondbacks-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Miley is 0-2, 2.02 in his last four starts.
--Petit is 1-2, 5.88 in his last five starts.
--Arizona lost its last three games, scoring five runs.
--Giants won nine of their last twelve games.
--Last five Miley starts stayed under the total.
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American League
•Royals-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Vargas is 3-2, 2.08 in his last five starts.
--Scherzer is 1-1, 5.84 in his last four starts.
--Royals won five of their last seven games.
--Detroit won 10 of its last 15 home games.
--Seven of last nine Royal games stayed under total.
•Twins-Indians - 7:05 PM
--May is 1-4, 8.31 in five starts this season.
--Bauer is 1-0, 1.96 in his last three starts.
--Twins lost 12 of their last 15 games.
--Cleveland won ten of its last fifteen games.
--Five of last seven Cleveland games stayed under.
•Rays-Yankees - 7:05 PM
--Archer is 0-2, 7.54 in his last four starts.
--Kuroda is 3-0, 2.36 in his last four starts.
--Tampa Bay lost four of its last six games.
--Yankees lost five of its last eight games.
--Under is 15-2 in last 17 Kuroda starts; four of last five Archer starts went over.
•Orioles-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Tillman is 4-0, 1.93 in his last seven starts.
--Ranaudo is 3-1, 4.63 in four MLB starts.
--Baltimore won 11 of its last 15 games.
--Red Sox lost ten of their last twelve home games.
--Last three Boston games stayed under the total.
•Angels-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Santiago is 1-0, 2.64 in his last eight starts.
--Lewis is 1-4, 6.00 in his last five starts.
--Angels won 11 of their last 13 games.
--Texas lost eight of its last nine games.
--Seven of last nine Texas games stayed under total.
•Athletics-White Sox - 8:10 PM
--Lester is 0-2, 2.57 in his last three starts.
--Danks is 0-4, 6.45 in his last seven starts.
--Oakland lost nine of its last eleven games.
--White Sox lost four of their last five games.
--Eight of last eleven Oakland games stayed under.
•Astros-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--McHugh is 5-0, 1.79 in his last seven starts.
--Elias is 2-3, 2.81 in his last five starts.
--Astros won six of their last eight games.
--Mariners won six of their last seven games.
--Under is 9-4 in last thirteen McHugh starts.
Interleague
•Cubs-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Arrieta is 2-2, 2.87 in his last five starts.
--Buehrle is 0-2, 5.18 in his last six starts.
--Cubs lost their last four games, scoring seven runs.
--Toronto won seven of its last nine games.
--Six of last eight Toronto home games stayed under.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman is 14-4 in his team starts against the money line (77.7%) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The right hander has also been spectacular on the year recording a 13-3 ledger versus poor power teams that are averaging 0.9 or less home runs’ per game. Baltimore may lack a marquee name at the top of their rotation, but Tillman has developed into one of baseball's most consistent starters.
His current run is among the best in franchise history. The California native looks to keep his perfect road record intact and help the Orioles move another step closer to an American League East title Tuesday night against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Despite not having any Cy Young Award candidates or even an All-Star pitcher, Baltimore's 3.73 ERA from its rotation ranks sixth in the AL. The Orioles have three starters with at least 11 wins, with Tillman ranking third behind Wei-Yin Chen (14) and Bud Norris (12).
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