STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, AUGUST 12th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 8/12/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #20
•The Cubs And The Hunt For Pitching: By now you know that the Chicago Cubs are in search of pitching to augment their position-player prospect base. The Cubs could fill out a starting eight of prospects, and then some, but finding a five-man rotation to help them compete in the coming years is still a work in progress. Any fan knows this by now, and when the Cubs traded Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel earlier this season, that task became larger. Jake Arrieta is coming along, as is Kyle Hendricks, but neither is worthy just yet of a World Series Game #7. We don’t even know if the Cubs have Series starters 1 through 5 on the team, or in the system, right now. They need plenty more and have acknowledged as much. The plan is to keep acquiring as much pitching talent as they can while looking for that big fish.
“We’ve been open about the fact we’d like to add an impact pitcher,” team president Theo Epstein said recently. “If you look over the next 18 months or so, it’s certainly a priority for us. “Whether we develop one from an unlikely spot like Jake Arrieta or acquire someone who’s already at those heights remains to be seen.” In the meantime, the Cubs are taking advantage of their position in baseball. As one of the majors' worst teams, they get early claim on players going through waivers -- where priority goes in reverse position of the standings. So in recent weeks, the Cubs have grabbed Felix Doubront from the Boston Red Sox and Jacob Turner from the Miami Marlins.
“Just 23 years old with a really good arm,” Epstein said of right-hander Turner. “We feel like we got him at a low point of value. There’s plenty of upside left with him.... He was one of the better starting-pitching prospects in all of baseball as recently as a couple years ago. We feel like that talent is still in there.” Left-hander Doubront, 26, and Turner have a couple of things in common, starting with their youth and the fact that they’ve struggled recently. It’s given the Cubs a chance to get them for next to nothing and integrate them into the pitching infrastructure team brass likes so much.
“We’ve had some success with talented pitchers who’ve gone through tough periods,” Epstein said. “Getting them here, let them reset a little bit. Give them some things to think about.” The Cubs are buying low right now because they can. Why not take fliers on guys who need a change of scenery and see if pitching coach Chris Bosio can work some magic? In the coming years, the Cubs hope the team is good enough that they aren’t drafting high or the first to put in waiver claims. “We’ve always been aggressive for talent wherever we can be,” Epstein said.
That brings us to the Cubs' reported claim on Philadelphia Phillies lefty Cole Hamels last week. The 30-year-old is a major step up in class from the Doubronts and Turners of the world -- and so is his contract. With Hamels owed at least $90 million over the next four seasons, it seemed a peculiar time for the Cubs to grab their No. 1 starter. More than likely, the claim was a fact-finding mission, as a deal between the Cubs and Phillies never materialized and Hamels was pulled back off waivers.
It can’t hurt the Cubs to gauge now what it will take to land a big name come the offseason. They’d rather do it without giving up young talent, but they need to be prepared for all scenarios. Names never leaked, but the Cubs should have an idea of what other teams think of some of their prospects and how many of them it might take to bring in a No. 1 pitcher. At the very least, they know what the Phillies want for Hamels. So as the Cubs catch the minnows with their high position in the claiming process, they’ve always got their eye on the big fish. The Cubs are being deliberate while uncovering every rock to find pitching. The only question is, where and when do they acquire the Game 7 starter?
•Mets Closer Mejia Pitching Through Injuries: The New York Mets could have a problem at closer. On Sunday, ninth-inning man Jenrry Mejia allowed three hits and two runs for his third blown save, resulting in the Mets' 7-6 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. In his last four appearances, Mejia is 0-2 with a 9.84 ERA. But struggles aren't the biggest issue. After the loss, Mejia, already dealing with a calf injury, admitted that he's been pitching through a hernia injury, as well, that will require surgery after the season. "Doctors say if it bothers me too much to let him fix it, but I don't want to let him know because I want to keep pitching," Mejia said. "I keep trying and throw my ball normal. It doesn't affect me."
Mejia said he's known about the hernia for three weeks and is receiving treatment. "(Doctors) gave me some pills and some medication," he said. "If I don't feel normal, too much pain, they're going to make an operation. But I want to keep pitching. I want to take some pills and keep pitching. I think I can keep going. I'm ready to go." Mets manager Terry Collins still has faith in his closer. "He's done a great job. He's done an absolutely great job," Collins said. "The breaking ball is a little tumble-y right now. It's not as crisp as it normally is. That could be from wear and tear. There's nothing wrong with him physically. He's fine." Mejia plans on gutting through it. "Every time I come to the game I feel I want to keep going, do some treatment and keep pitching," he said. "Everything's OK. There's no excuse."
•Veteran Lefty Mulder Wants To Pitch Again: Left-hander Mark Mulder, who spent spring training with the Los Angeles Angels, said he plans to resume an attempted comeback interrupted by injury. Mulder, who turned 37 on Tuesday, said in a text message he would continue to pursue pitching in the major leagues. A torn Achilles' tendon on the first day of spring workouts cost Mulder a chance to make the Angels' roster. The two-time member of the American League's All-Star team had not pitched since 2008, his last season in the majors.
From 2000-05, Mulder was one of baseball's most formidable pitchers. He joined right-hander Tim Hudson and left-hander Barry Zito to form the core of the Oakland Athletics' stellar rotation. In 2001, the 23-year-old Mulder lead the American League with 21 wins and finished second to the New York Yankees' Roger Clemens in voting for the Cy Young Award. Three years later, Mulder received the victory for the American League in the All-Star Game. In four of his five seasons with Oakland, Mulder never won fewer than 15 games and lost no more than nine.
Mulder continued that success in his first season with the St. Louis Cardinals by going 16-8 in 2005. But shoulder problems, especially with his rotator cuff, proved devastating during the next three years. As a result, Mulder pitched only 12 2/3 innings and lost all three of his decisions in 2007 and 2008. But Mulder found a natural throwing motion by imitating the delivery of Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Paco Rodriguez while watching the 2013 playoffs. After auditioning for various major-league teams, Mulder signed a minor-league contract with the Angels, who invited him to spring training. When the Angels released Mulder in March, he resumed his career as an analyst for ESPN. In his text message, Mulder said he will try to throw off a mound this week.
Around The League
--The underdog play was a strong one on a weird Sunday in the major leagues. Underdogs went a staggering 10-5 straight-up (66.6%), a trend that included victories by the Minnesota Twins (+162) over Oakland, the Chicago Cubs (+144) versus Tampa Bay, Toronto (+144) against Detroit and Colorado (+143) taking down the Diamondbacks 5-3 in 10-innings in Arizona.
--St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright will look to continue his road dominance Tuesday evening as he faces the Marlins in Miami. Wainwright has been one of the best pitchers away from his home park this season, going 9-3 with a 1.32 ERA and just one home run allowed over 95 2/3 innings.
--A pair of Chicago Cubs are looking forward to Tuesday evening's matchup with Milwaukee Brewers hurler Wily Peralta. Starlin Castro is 10-for-21 with a pair of home runs in his career versus Peralta, while Anthony Rizzo is 8-for-19 with four homers and nine RBIs.
--The New York Mets continue to be the league's pushiest team heading into Monday afternoons matchup in Philadelphia - leading the majors with 13 - but have become a strong Over play of late, having allowed five or more runs in four of their last eight games. New York is 52-53-13 Over/Under for the season.
--St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina has had the cast removed from his surgically-repaired right thumb and can begin light baseball-related activities. The Cardinals are 12-12 straight-up, 15-9 Over/Under and -68 units since Molina suffered the thumb injury just over a month ago.
--The Minnesota Twins activated first-baseman Joe Mauer from the disabled list in time for their opener of a three-game set Monday night against the host Houston Astros. Mauer has missed the last 34 games with a strained oblique; the Twins are 14-20 straight-up, 16-18 Over/Under and -330 units in his absence.
--Interleague play has agreed with Chicago White Sox lefty Chris Sale, who faces the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday night. Sale is perfect in 14 apperances (six starts) against the National League, going 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 60 strikeouts over 53 2/3 innings.
Betting Notes - Tuesday
National League
•Cardinals-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Wainwright is 6-1, 0.89 in his last eight road starts.
--Cosart is 1-3, 8.44 in his last five starts.
--Cardinals lost five of their last seven road games.
--Marlins won three of their last four games.
--Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Wainwright road starts.
•Nationals-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Fister is 5-1, 1.96 in his last six starts.
--Montero was 0-2, 5.85 in four starts back in May.
--Washington is 4-6 in its last ten away games.
--Mets won three of their last four games.
--Under is 9-1-1 in last eleven Fister starts.
•Dodgers-Braves - 7:10 PM
--Haren is 1-5, 8.22 in his last six starts.
--Minor is 2-2, 8.71 in his last four starts.
--Dodgers won seven of their last nine road games.
--Braves won five of last seven home games.
--Eight of last ten Minor starts went over total.
•Brewers-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--Peralta is 5-0, 1.91 in his last five starts.
--Hendricks is 3-1, 1.59 in his last four starts.
--Milwaukee won four of its last five games.
--Cubs are 6-10 in their last sixteen home games.
--Six of last eight Brewer games stayed under total.
•Rockies-Padres - 10:10 PM
--Colorado is 0-6 when Flande starts (0-4, 6.06).
--Despaigne is 0-3, 5.52 in his last five starts.
--Rockies lost 12 of their last 15 games.
--San Diego won nine of its last twelve games.
--Under is 11-4-1 in last sixteen Colorado road games.
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American League
•Yankees-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Greene is 3-1, 2.92 in six starts for Bronx.
--Chen is 5-1, 3.16 in his last six starts.
--Yankees are 5-8 in its last thirteen road games.
--Baltimore won 11 of its last 15 games.
--Six of last eight New York games stayed under total.
•Rays-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Rays won three of four Hellickson starts (1-1, 2.61).
--Tepesch is 1-1, 2.31 in his last couple starts.
--Rays won four of their last five games.
--Texas lost 13 of their last 19 games.
--Under is 5-1-1 in Tampa Bay's last seven games.
•Twins-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Pino is 0-2, 4.81 in his last four starts.
--McHugh is 1-0, 1.35 in his last two starts.
--Minnesota lost four of its last six games.
--Astros won five of their last seven home games.
--Seven of last eleven Minnesota games went over total.
•Athletics-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Lester is 2-0, 1.72 in his two starts for Oakland.
--Guthrie is 3-0, 3.05 in his last three starts.
--A's lost 10 of their last 15 road games.
--Kansas City won 11 of its last 12 games.
--Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Kansas City games.
•Blue Jays-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Happ is 1-2, 2.05 in his last four starts.
--Young is 2-0, 3.64 in his last three starts.
--Toronto lost seven of its last ten games.
--Mariners won seven of their last nine games.
--Under is 11-5-1 in Happ starts this season.
Interleague
•Tigers-Pirates - 7:05 PM
--Ray is 1-1, 4.91 in three starts this season.
--Pirates won seven of last eight Volquez starts (5-1, 2.92).
--Detroit is 10-15 since the All-Star break.
--Pirates are 18-6 in their last 24 home games.
--Nine of last twelve Pirate games went over the total.
•Diamondbacks-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Collmenter is 0-1, 7.71 in his last three starts.
--House is 2-2, 4.05 in his last six starts.
--Arizona is 6-10 in its last sixteen road games.
--Indians won eight of their last eleven home games.
--Five of last seven Arizona games stayed under total.
•Red Sox-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Kelly is 1-1, 4.18 in his last four starts.
--Latos is 2-0, 2.45 in his last two starts.
--Red Sox lost 13 of their last 18 games.
--Cincinnati won seven of its last eleven games.
--Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Boston road games.
•Phillies-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Former Angel Williams was 1-1, 9.90 in two starts with Texas.
--Wilson is 0-2, 12.54 in his last five starts.
--Phillies lost three of their last four games.
--Angels lost four of their last five games.
--Five of last six Wilson starts went over the total.
•White Sox-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Sale is 4-1, 2.13 in his last seven starts.
--Vogelsong is 2-0, 1.20 in his last two starts.
--White Sox lost seven of their last nine games.
--San Francisco lost five of last six games; they're 6-18 in last 24 home tilts.
--Six of last eight Vogelsong starts stayed under.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Cardinals Ace Adam Wainwright is 26-6 in his team starts against the money line (81.2%) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last two seasons. Away from Busch Stadium, the right-hander is 9-3 in 13 starts with a 1.32 ERA, the lowest road mark in baseball. Wainwright will face the Marlins for the first time since 2010. He's 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA in six starts and two relief appearances against them.
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w-thumbs!^
