SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore +1.76 over DETROIT Pinnacle
There are a few things to note here with the first being the O’s offense, which has suddenly started to string together some solid numbers. In fact, the O’s have scored 30 runs over its last six games and in three of those they scored six or more. They really have a good shot at putting up a few more here against Armando Gallaraga. There is no loyalty in wagering. Just four weeks after hurling the "perfect" game, Galarraga resides near the top of my fade list. How does this happen to a hurler with a 2.67 ERA and 0.98 WHIP? Well, a 4.68 xERA and a very low strikeout total reveal the true pitcher here. A 21% hit rate and 79% strand-rate disguise Galarraga's actual skill level. Gallaraga is just not that good and even against the O’s he’s way overpriced. Jake Arietta does not have good numbers and one has to be concerned about his walk/strikeout ratio, which is a horrible 16BB/13 K’s in 26 IP. However, he’s performing better with each starts and in two road starts his BAA is just .216. He’s had three very decent starts in five tries and that includes his season debut against the Yanks. Arrieta has a pretty good shot at success at this pitcher-friendly venue and thus, with a big take-back like this, the risk on the O’s is worth the reward. Play: Baltimore +1.76 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco +1.28 over MILWAUKEE Pinnacle
Madison Bumgarner has made just two starts in the majors and we can see why he’s considered a top prospect. Overall, Bumgarner fared well in his first start against the Red Sox, as he gave up four earned runs in seven IP, allowing five hits, one walk, two HR and striking out five. The good news is that he gave up all four runs in the first two innings, and then settled down and did not allow another run. In his next start, in Colorado, another tough game, he went seven innings, allowing nine hits and just three earned runs and once again he walked just one and struck out five. So, in two starts, covering 14 frames against two tough opponents, Bumgarner has 10 K’s and he issued just two walks. He was 6-0 with a 2.23 ERA in his last 10 minor league starts prior to the recall amd now he’ll face a Brewers team that is very beatable and you can double that with Randy Wolf throwing. Wolf does not have many strong performances this year. He’s coming off a strong start against the Cards but who isn’t coming off a strong start against them? Fact is, Wolf has a 5.25 ERA at home to go along with a BAA of .297. Wolf posted a 3.34 ERA this April but things fell apart in May, however, as his ERA was 5.50, and he walked more batters than he struck out. If that’s not enough reason for worry, check out Wolf’s recent K/9 trend. 2007: 8.2, 2008: 7.7, 2009: 6.7, 2010: 5.9. Unless that trend reverses, expect to see more months like May in his future. The Giants have woken up with two wins in three games and over that stretch they’ve scored 20 runs, a trend that can certainly continue here. Play: San Francisco +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +2.06 over TEXAS Pinnacle
The Indians may not win here but they’re absolutely worth a wager against C. J. Wilson, a guy who might be very vulnerable to getting whacked. You see, Wilson has already surpassed his season high in IP, as it was previously 74 and now he’s logged 106 innings and we’re just into July. He’s a reliever turned starter and all the signs are there that fatigue is setting in. For one, he’s walked 17 and struck out 17 over his last four starts. Also note that he faced the Astros twice and Mariners once in three of his last five starts, so he’s been able to avoid being exposed. While it's been a good ride so far and Wilson has demonstrated a solid skills foundation, he has now entered uncharted IP territory and will very likely pay the big price very soon. Committing to this guy at this price could be a huge mistake. Furthermore, Justin Masterson is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. Masterson has an elite groundball % of 64%. He threw a two-hitter vs the Red Sox on June 2 and he’s coming off a gem against the Blue Jays. Masterson’s confidence is much stronger these days and it’s also worth noting that he catches the Rangers at precisely the right time. After a stretch in which they were hitting everything and everybody, the Rangers have slowed way down. In fact, over its last six games the Rangers are batting a combined .216, which is dead last in the AL and overall, only the Cubbies and Astros have been worse over that stretch. The Indians won and scored nine times last night and there’s no reason they can’t win again tonight. Definite overlay. Play: Cleveland +2.06 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +1.76 over DETROIT Pinnacle
There are a few things to note here with the first being the O’s offense, which has suddenly started to string together some solid numbers. In fact, the O’s have scored 30 runs over its last six games and in three of those they scored six or more. They really have a good shot at putting up a few more here against Armando Gallaraga. There is no loyalty in wagering. Just four weeks after hurling the "perfect" game, Galarraga resides near the top of my fade list. How does this happen to a hurler with a 2.67 ERA and 0.98 WHIP? Well, a 4.68 xERA and a very low strikeout total reveal the true pitcher here. A 21% hit rate and 79% strand-rate disguise Galarraga's actual skill level. Gallaraga is just not that good and even against the O’s he’s way overpriced. Jake Arietta does not have good numbers and one has to be concerned about his walk/strikeout ratio, which is a horrible 16BB/13 K’s in 26 IP. However, he’s performing better with each starts and in two road starts his BAA is just .216. He’s had three very decent starts in five tries and that includes his season debut against the Yanks. Arrieta has a pretty good shot at success at this pitcher-friendly venue and thus, with a big take-back like this, the risk on the O’s is worth the reward. Play: Baltimore +1.76 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco +1.28 over MILWAUKEE Pinnacle
Madison Bumgarner has made just two starts in the majors and we can see why he’s considered a top prospect. Overall, Bumgarner fared well in his first start against the Red Sox, as he gave up four earned runs in seven IP, allowing five hits, one walk, two HR and striking out five. The good news is that he gave up all four runs in the first two innings, and then settled down and did not allow another run. In his next start, in Colorado, another tough game, he went seven innings, allowing nine hits and just three earned runs and once again he walked just one and struck out five. So, in two starts, covering 14 frames against two tough opponents, Bumgarner has 10 K’s and he issued just two walks. He was 6-0 with a 2.23 ERA in his last 10 minor league starts prior to the recall amd now he’ll face a Brewers team that is very beatable and you can double that with Randy Wolf throwing. Wolf does not have many strong performances this year. He’s coming off a strong start against the Cards but who isn’t coming off a strong start against them? Fact is, Wolf has a 5.25 ERA at home to go along with a BAA of .297. Wolf posted a 3.34 ERA this April but things fell apart in May, however, as his ERA was 5.50, and he walked more batters than he struck out. If that’s not enough reason for worry, check out Wolf’s recent K/9 trend. 2007: 8.2, 2008: 7.7, 2009: 6.7, 2010: 5.9. Unless that trend reverses, expect to see more months like May in his future. The Giants have woken up with two wins in three games and over that stretch they’ve scored 20 runs, a trend that can certainly continue here. Play: San Francisco +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +2.06 over TEXAS Pinnacle
The Indians may not win here but they’re absolutely worth a wager against C. J. Wilson, a guy who might be very vulnerable to getting whacked. You see, Wilson has already surpassed his season high in IP, as it was previously 74 and now he’s logged 106 innings and we’re just into July. He’s a reliever turned starter and all the signs are there that fatigue is setting in. For one, he’s walked 17 and struck out 17 over his last four starts. Also note that he faced the Astros twice and Mariners once in three of his last five starts, so he’s been able to avoid being exposed. While it's been a good ride so far and Wilson has demonstrated a solid skills foundation, he has now entered uncharted IP territory and will very likely pay the big price very soon. Committing to this guy at this price could be a huge mistake. Furthermore, Justin Masterson is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. Masterson has an elite groundball % of 64%. He threw a two-hitter vs the Red Sox on June 2 and he’s coming off a gem against the Blue Jays. Masterson’s confidence is much stronger these days and it’s also worth noting that he catches the Rangers at precisely the right time. After a stretch in which they were hitting everything and everybody, the Rangers have slowed way down. In fact, over its last six games the Rangers are batting a combined .216, which is dead last in the AL and overall, only the Cubbies and Astros have been worse over that stretch. The Indians won and scored nine times last night and there’s no reason they can’t win again tonight. Definite overlay. Play: Cleveland +2.06 (Risking 2 units).
Deano's HRC Smart Choice* Best Bets|Your Capping Agent-July 6th
Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
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2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
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[901] San Diego |5*|-115|B+0|Network N/A|7:05 pm EST
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Records can be found at Handicappers Paradise
20-12 PP Single Purchase Record
2-0 Yesterday
Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
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2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
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[901] San Diego |5*|-115|B+0|Network N/A|7:05 pm EST
*Note
Records can be found at Handicappers Paradise
20-12 PP Single Purchase Record
2-0 Yesterday
DAVID MALINSKY
4* CHICAGO CUBS over ARIZONA
It was gut check time at Chase Field yesterday afternoon, with two struggling teams showing up off of terrible weekend series, and there was a clear early sign as to which team had some guts left – the Cubs got off to a cathartic early lead and controlled the flow. Getting away from Wrigley may be just what the doctor ordered for an underachieving team that is still capable of making a run back to .500. Meanwhile the Diamondbacks have been out-scored 26-6 in losing their last three on this field, and their complete lack of focus shows in having almost twice as many K’s (40) as hits (21). A lost season in the desert has a chance to get very ugly, and this is a prime spot for us to take advantage.
We get a short price here because of a market perception that Carlos Silva is leveling off after a hot opening, with the Cubs losing each of his last four starts. But take a closer look. His ERA in those games (3.04) is right at his season level (2.96), as was his WHIP (1.12 vs. 1.08). If anything, there has even been more pop from his arm, with 20 K’s vs. only three W’s in the span, and all four starts were against winning teams. Now he gets a chance to step way down in class, and his pinpoint control can frustrate a lineup filled with players that lack patience. Meanwhile only Sean Marshall carries any kind of fatigue rating in the bullpen, and while he threw 1.2 innings on Monday, 18 pitches is not bad in going from a day game to a night affair.
Barry Enright got a “W” in his Major League debut, which represented a big jump from AA ball, but there was not much to like – he labored through 102 piches to get through five innings at St. Louis, with four W’s, and a 2:1 ratio of fly ball outs to ground outs. It was mostly baseball roulette, and we are not sure he is ready for this level yet. Given that it is a lost season already they are not going to rush his innings, and that will be a continuing problem, given the horrid 5.76 allowance from the Diamondback bullpen.
4* CHICAGO CUBS over ARIZONA
It was gut check time at Chase Field yesterday afternoon, with two struggling teams showing up off of terrible weekend series, and there was a clear early sign as to which team had some guts left – the Cubs got off to a cathartic early lead and controlled the flow. Getting away from Wrigley may be just what the doctor ordered for an underachieving team that is still capable of making a run back to .500. Meanwhile the Diamondbacks have been out-scored 26-6 in losing their last three on this field, and their complete lack of focus shows in having almost twice as many K’s (40) as hits (21). A lost season in the desert has a chance to get very ugly, and this is a prime spot for us to take advantage.
We get a short price here because of a market perception that Carlos Silva is leveling off after a hot opening, with the Cubs losing each of his last four starts. But take a closer look. His ERA in those games (3.04) is right at his season level (2.96), as was his WHIP (1.12 vs. 1.08). If anything, there has even been more pop from his arm, with 20 K’s vs. only three W’s in the span, and all four starts were against winning teams. Now he gets a chance to step way down in class, and his pinpoint control can frustrate a lineup filled with players that lack patience. Meanwhile only Sean Marshall carries any kind of fatigue rating in the bullpen, and while he threw 1.2 innings on Monday, 18 pitches is not bad in going from a day game to a night affair.
Barry Enright got a “W” in his Major League debut, which represented a big jump from AA ball, but there was not much to like – he labored through 102 piches to get through five innings at St. Louis, with four W’s, and a 2:1 ratio of fly ball outs to ground outs. It was mostly baseball roulette, and we are not sure he is ready for this level yet. Given that it is a lost season already they are not going to rush his innings, and that will be a continuing problem, given the horrid 5.76 allowance from the Diamondback bullpen.
BOB BALFE
Pittsburgh Pirates +131
Pittsburgh is not a good road team, but they are on a nice winning streak and do a little bit better against left handed pitchers. The Astros are a pretty bad team themselves and have lost 3 in a row. Look for Pittsburgh's momentum to carry over. Take the Pirates.
Pittsburgh Pirates +131
Pittsburgh is not a good road team, but they are on a nice winning streak and do a little bit better against left handed pitchers. The Astros are a pretty bad team themselves and have lost 3 in a row. Look for Pittsburgh's momentum to carry over. Take the Pirates.
KEN JONES
Yankees at A's
Pick: A's +145
This game will definitely be a pitchers duel between New York Yankees starter C.C. Sabathia and Oakland Athletics starter Trevor Cahill. In his last five appearances Trevor Cahill has only allowed eight runs on twenty two hits in thirty four and one third frames. C.C. Sabathia has just gave up seven runs on twenty seven hits in thirty eight innings. Play: Oakland
Yankees at A's
Pick: A's +145
This game will definitely be a pitchers duel between New York Yankees starter C.C. Sabathia and Oakland Athletics starter Trevor Cahill. In his last five appearances Trevor Cahill has only allowed eight runs on twenty two hits in thirty four and one third frames. C.C. Sabathia has just gave up seven runs on twenty seven hits in thirty eight innings. Play: Oakland
