Service Plays Tuesday 7/5/11

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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Thank you, wilheim




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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
St. Louis Cardinals Clash With Cincinnati Reds
By: Adam Markowitz

Cincinnati Reds at Saint Louis Cardinals (-155, 8)

National League Central rivals duke it out at Busch Stadium on Tuesday night in MLB betting action, as the Cincinnati Reds look to make up ground on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Both of these contenders are hoping this series serves as a launching point for their run in the NL Central, and considering how close these two teams are in the standings, this is a series of utmost importance.

This battle to beat the MLB odds is slated to throw out the first pitch at 4:09 p.m. (PT) on Tuesday, and there will be live television coverage on ESPN.

The man of the hour for Reds manager Dusty Baker on Tuesday is going to be Edinson Volquez, who just turned 28 years old this week. The righty from the Dominican Republic is only 5-3 on the season, and has posted a career-worst 5.65 ERA.

In fact, this isn't nearly only stat that is as bad as it has ever gotten for Volquez. In seasons in which he has thrown at least 40 innings, Volquez has never had a WHIP anywhere near as bad as the 1.63 that he has in 2011, and he is just about on pace to break his career high in walks. Right now, Volquez has issued 53 free passes in 79 2/3 innings of work, 40 shy of his career-worst.

Volquez is just 1-2 in his career against St. Louis with a 4.94 ERA. Earlier this season, he took the 'L' in an outing in which he allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings.

Jaime Garcia has been up and down for the Cards this season, but when you look at his holistic numbers, he has been awfully impressive. The southpaw is 7-3 with a 3.33 ERA.

Manager Tony LaRussa knows that Garcia has those inconsistencies. Case in point: Garcia has allowed five runs in each of his last two starts, and he surrendered 12 runs in 3 1/3 innings of work against the Colorado Rockies back on May 28. In the interim, he has only allowed a grand total of nine runs in 24 1/3 innings.

Pitching at home has been great this year for Garcia for the most part, though. He is 4-1 with a 0.88 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. Batters are also only hitting .173 against him as well at Busch Stadium.

Garcia has baffled the Reds in his career, winning all four of his starts. The lefty has a 4.33 ERA, but he just continues to find ways to win games.

The Reds have already taken four of the six games in this series, but the home team has won five of the six as well. In the most recent 3-game set of these rivals, Cincinnati posted a healthy 22 runs en route to a sweep.

Coming into this series, the Reds are 15-6 in their last 21 games played in division. However, the Cards are 36-17 over the course of their last 53 home games against teams with winning records. Cincinnati is also just 18-43 in its last 61 games in St. Louis.

It'll be a hot one in St. Louis on Tuesday. Expect temperatures in the high-80s with light easterly winds and a minimal chance for rain.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Tim Stauffer (4-5, 2.97 ERA), San Diego Padres

Do the Padres draft excellent pitchers or does their home park make average hurlers look like studs? Maybe it’s a little bit of both. This 29-year-old righty bounced in and out of the Padres’ rotation for the past few seasons but now he looks like the staff’s ace hurler.

He’s 3-1 with a 1.00 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over his last five starts. Now, four of those came at the spacious Petco Park, but Stauffer’s home/away splits aren’t too dramatic.

Chris Volstad (4-7, 5.01 ERA), Florida Marlins

Look, there are hotter pitchers taking the bump on Tuesday, but do you really need to be reminded that Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia are good? Yeah, didn’t think so.

Volstad’s given Florida backers three straight quality starts and two consecutive plus paydays. The 6-foot-8 right-hander has allowed just three runs in his last three appearances and he outdueled Oakland ace Trevor Cahill in his last turn in the rotation.


SLUMPING

Ted Lilly (5-8, 4.97 ERA), Los Angeles Dodgers

This veteran southpaw hurler had his regular scheduled start pushed back a day because of a slight pain in his wrist – a common excuse from pitchers who’ve been sucking ass.

The Dodgers are 0-3 in Lilly’s last three starts and the 35-year-old carries a 10.44 ERA. The over is also 4-0 in the lefty’s last four trips to the hill.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HOT LINES

Tuesday's Best MLB Bets

Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates (-120, 7)

After failing to move to three games over .500 on eight separate occasions this season, the upstart Pittsburgh Pirates finally reached that milestone for the first time since 1999 on Monday.

Alex Presley had three hits and Andrew McCutchen had an RBI double and scored a run in Monday’s 5-3 win over Houston. McCutchen is now hitting .294 with 46 RBIs and 15 stolen bases, but wasn’t picked to join the team’s closer, Joel Hanrahan, on the NL All-Star squad.

It’s safe to say Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle isn't thrilled with the snub.

"The MLB whiffed, that he is not one of the guys getting to be in this vote thing," Hurdle told reporters. "They whiffed on that. That's an absolute whiff. If you're looking to put your ballclub together, and a guy who can come off the bench and do some things, the numbers he has -- you can look at metrics, you can look at straight batting average, you can look at OPS, stolen bases -- he's an All-Star.”

We tend to agree and happen to like Pittsburgh again in the second game of this set.

PICK: Pittsburgh


Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers (-170, 9)

Milwaukee slugger Ryan Braun missed his second consecutive game on Monday with a left calf strain and the club is going to need his bat back in the lineup if its bullpen keeps imploding.

Shaun Marcum gave up four runs over six innings and also hit a grand slam in Monday’s 8-6 loss to Arizona. The Diamondbacks were down 5-1 before mounting a huge comeback to cash in as a +110 underdog.

Milwaukee hopes to have Braun back in the mix Tuesday, but that sounds far from a sure thing at this point.

“Injuries are a part of baseball. It happens sometimes," Braun told reporters. "Obviously I want to play, but at the same time I have to listen to what everyone else says. It's the type of thing that you could easily re-aggravate or make far worse, and I don't want that to happen and have to miss a couple months."

The left fielder leads the NL in All-Star voting and is hitting .320 with 16 homers and 62 RBIs to go along with 19 stolen bases.

If Braun plays, it’s a bonus, but Milwaukee should be able to beat up on Zach Duke.

PICK: Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA NEWS AND NOTES
WNBA: Mystics-Sky Preview
By Associated Press

Washington Mystics at Chicago Sky (-7, 151)

Frequent losses and a growing list of injuries have been equally frustrating for the Washington Mystics.

The club may not have leading scorer Crystal Langhorne in the lineup Tuesday night when it visits the Chicago Sky, who have also struggled of late.

Langhorne, averaging 18.1 points, sat out a 73-63 loss to Seattle on Sunday due to back pain after she played through discomfort and scored 23 points in an 83-63 win over Tulsa on June 26. It was the first game the center has missed in her four-year career, and she is unsure if the injury will allow her to play against Chicago.

The Mystics (2-6) were the top seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs in 2010, but they've lost five of six and have been without injured stars Alana Beard and Monique Currie for the entire season.

Nicky Anosike scored 11 points but shot 3 for 14 from the field Sunday, while the depleted bench - consisting of three rookies and second-year forward Joy Cheek - totaled one point and shot 0 for 8.

''I've never in my life have had to deal with so many injuries in such a short period of time,'' Anosike said. ''It's hard, but what can we do? We can't sit around and feel sorry for ourselves. The other teams don't care.''

Washington's slump began with an 84-77 loss to the Sky on June 11 in the teams' only meeting this season. Matee Ajavon, the Mystics' second-leading scorer behind Langhorne at 15.9 points per game, scored a season high-tying 24.

Ajavon, who has started all eight games after starting six in her previous three seasons combined, is making the most of her increased playing time with Beard and Currie sidelined. She had never averaged more than 8.0 points prior to this season.

Chicago's Sylvia Fowles scored 23 points in the victory over Washington, while Epiphanny Prince added 20 as the Sky shot 60 percent and never trailed. Catherine Kraayeveld had 19 points and a career-high six 3-pointers.

The Sky (4-6) have dropped five of seven since that win, most recently falling 97-84 to Phoenix on Friday for their third straight defeat. Fowles was limited to 21 minutes due to foul trouble and scored 12 points - 8.7 fewer than her average.

"The few minutes that Sylvia was able to play because of the 30 or so fouls called on us and the 45 free throws shot, she managed to get 12 points in that short amount of time," coach Pokey Chatman told the team's official website. "She just wasn't on the court enough."

Prince scored 19 points and added six assists. The second-year guard ranks eighth in the league with 17.5 points per game.

Chicago has won three straight against Washington.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LADY LUCK

Tuesday's Best WNBA Bets

Washington Mystics at Chicago Sky (-7, 151)

The last time these teams met, it was all Chicago as the Sky cruised to an 84-77 victory after jumping out to an 18-point lead in the first half.

Mystics coach Trudi Lacey wasn’t pleased to say the least.

“I really have been disappointed in our focus defensively and at times our effort on defense,” Lacey told reporters. “As you can see, in the first half a lack of focus defensively. In the second half we were focused defensively and we were able to get shots. We’re a team that we have to focus defensively for 40 minutes.”

That’s still an issue as the Mystics are 1-4 both straight up and against the spread since that June 11 loss.

Chicago’s defense isn’t anything to write home about either, allowing an average of 87.8 points over the last five games and the club is missing Dominique Canty’s veteran presence.

Washington could be without leading scorer Crystal Langhorne. She’s dealing with a back issue and the Mystics may not be able to keep up with Sylvia Fowles if Langhorne’s out.

PICK: Chicago


Los Angeles Sparks at Phoenix Mercury (-5.5, 177)

Everybody knew losing Candace Parker at least five weeks to a knee injury was going to be a big loss for the Los Angeles Sparks.

Los Angeles dropped its first games without Parker, dropping a 79-76 decision to Connecticut.

"I knew that at the beginning, we would either come out and play really well or there would be a lack of chemistry on both ends of the floor because of Candace's absence," coach Jennifer Gillom told reporters. "This is our first game without her and true enough, we had a hard time finding that chemistry early on."

Chemistry is something to Mercury doesn’t lack – especially on the offensive end. Phoenix leads the league averaging 90.3 points per game. Diana Taurasi leads the pack with 20.1 points per game, but the club has five players scoring in double figures.

PICK: Phoenix

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday’s Betting Tips: Rockies Suffer Another Injury

Who's Hot

MLB: New York Yankees are 21-7 in their last 28 games as a favorite.

MLB: Philadelphia has won 22 of its last 29 meetings with Florida.

WNBA: Indiana has won and covered in each of its last four games.

Who’s Not

MLB: Colorado is 7-19 in its last 26 games in Atlanta.

MLB: The under is 3-9 in Oakland’s last 12 overall.

WNBA: The under is 5-16 in Phoenix’s last 21 home games.

Key Stat

68.8 – The Seattle Storm own the WNBA’s top defense, allowing just 68.8 points per game, which is almost three points fewer than the league’s No. 2 defense. Five of Seattle’s last six games have played under the total heading into Tuesday night’s game at Indiana.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Crystal Langhorne, Washington Mystics: Langhorne is currently listed as questionable for Tuesday’s game against Chicago after she sat out Sunday’s loss to Seattle due to back pain. Langhorne leads the Mystics with 18.1 points per game.

Game Of The Day

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels (+105, 6)

Notable Quotable

“As a team, we are determined to end the tournament on a high note. We will try to show the world that our game against France was not truly who we are — we only had a bad game.” – Canada’s captain Christine Sinclair about the club’s final World Cup matchup against Nigeria on Tuesday. Both clubs cannot advance to the next round and Canada is set as a -145 favorite.

Tips And Notes

Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki left Monday night’s game against Atlanta with a quad injury and his status for Tuesday’s game is up in the air. This is the second straight game the Rockies have lost a major piece of their puzzle after Carlos Gonzalez hurt his left wrist when he crashed into the wall. His return to the lineup is also unknown at this time. Colorado is set as a +120 underdog Tuesday in Atlanta.

The Tour De France is a two-horse race as far as oddsmakers are concerned. Andy Schleck is currently set as the favorite at +120 but three-time winner Alberto Contador is right on his heels at +135. No other cyclist is priced lower than +800.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Washington at Chicago

The Sky look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games against the Mystics. Chicago is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-6). Here are all of today's picks.
<table cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4"><tbody><tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt; width: 206pt;" width="274" height="17">TUESDAY, JULY 5
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 601-602: Seattle at Indiana (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 113.280; Indiana 114.755
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 141
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+4 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 603-604: Washington at Chicago (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 104.662; Chicago 115.464
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 11; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 6; 150
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-6); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 605-606: Los Angeles at Phoenix (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 108.744; Phoenix 117.600
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 9; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 178
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-5 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 5px;" width="566">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

Philadelphia at Florida

The Marlins look to bounce back from yesterday's 1-0 loss and build on their 7-0 record in Chris Volstad's last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in the previous game. Florida is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+140). Here are all of today's picks.
<table cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4" width="538"><tbody><tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">TUESDAY, JULY 5
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 901-902: Houston at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 13.949; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 16.033
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-125); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Ortiz) 15.770; Washington (Detwiler) 14.859
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+120); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 905-906: Colorado at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 14.560; Atlanta (Lowe) 15.609
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-125); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 907-908: Philadelphia at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.131; Florida (Volstad) 15.919
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+140); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 909-910: Arizona at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Duke) 15.242; Milwaukee (Wolf) 14.147
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+160); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 911-912: Cincinnati at St. Louis (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 15.363; St. Louis (Garcia) 14.894
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 8; 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+130); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 913-914: NY Mets at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.361; LA Dodgers (Lilly) 14.569
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-130); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 915-916: San Diego at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stauffer) 15.710; San Francisco (Cain) 15.207
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+135); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 917-918: NY Yankees at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.853; Cleveland (Carrasco) 16.348
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-150); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 919-920: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 16.447; Boston (Lester) 15.473
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-220); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+190); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 921-922: Baltimore at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Atkins) 15.405; Texas (Harrison) 14.624
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 923-924: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Paulino) 14.535; White Sox (Peavy) 15.266
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-160); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 925-926: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.618; Minnesota (Baker) 15.723
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 927-928: Detroit at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.073; LA Angels (Haren) 16.162
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="522" height="17">Game 929-930: Seattle at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.561; Oakland (Cahill) 14.770
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 5
Vegas Line: Oakland (-110); 6
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-110); Under</td> </tr> <tr> </tr></tbody></table>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

The Jays lit up Lackey fourthwith then held off the Sawx yesterday, which enabled Hondo to slash the accounts payable to 1,410 sanfords.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch expects Justin Zoolander to pose problems for the Angels -- 10 units on Detroit. Also, Cain seems able, so another units 10 units will be invested on the Giants.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Tuesday

Mets/ Dodgers over 7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

669- 507 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Tues: Pirates -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Giants -155 over Padres

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Soccer Crusher
Play of the Day:

DuquedeCaxias + GremioBarueri UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Giants -155 over Padres

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Insider Sports Report

4* N.Y. Yankees (Sabathia) -145 over Cleveland (Carrasco)
Range: -130 to -165

3* Houston (Rodriguez)/Pittsburgh (Karstens) UNDER 7
Range: 7.5 to 6.5

3* Detroit (Verlander) -120 over L.A. Angels (Haren)
Range: +100 to -140

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ultimate

nyy
bost

 

[jdsabre]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Play Boston (-210) over Toronto (Top Play of the Day)

Boston pitcher, Jon Lester has won 22 of the last 25 home games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs and he has also won 20 of the last 23 home games as a favorite of -200 or higher. Jon Lester is 9-4 vs. Toronto over his career with an ERA of 3.40 and he has an ERA of 2.14 over the last three starts.


Play Milwaukee (-170) over Arizona (Top Play of the Day)

Milwaukee has won 15 of the last 18 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and they have also won 29 of the last 40 home games. Randy Wolf has won 10 of the last 13 home games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he is 10-3 vs. Arizona over his career.


Play Philadelphia (-155) over Florida (Bonus)

 

[jdsabre]

SPORTS WAGERS

WASHINGTON –1 +108 over Chicago

Some sportsbooks give you the option of laying a single run and that’s an option we’re going to use more of beginning here. If you don’t have that option you should open an account at Pinnacle Sports and use it. In this case, if you don’t have the option of laying a run, we would still play the Nats laying 1½-runs and taking back +156. The reason is because Ramon Ortiz now joins the cast of characters playing musical chairs at the back end of the Cubbies rotation. Ortiz is now 38-years-old. He pitched 30 innings with the Dodgers last year with disastrous results (6.30 ERA, 1.63 WHIP). Ortiz is currently 6-3 with a 4.44 ERA for the Iowa Cubs of the Triple A Pacific Coast League. He’s thrown 99.1 frames down there and has allowed 115 hits for a BAA of .292. Prior to his brief stint with the Dodgers last year, Ortiz last pitched at this level in ’05, ’06 and ’07 and posted ERA’s of 5.36, 5.57 and 5.45 respectively. The guy can’t get minor-leaguers out and chances are he won’t last long in this one. Ross Detwiler’s minor league numbers are not much better. However, he’s a 25-year-old lefty that has always had tremendous potential. Detwiler was a first round pick in ’07. He was the highest Missouri State draft pick in school history and was a member of the 2006 All-MVC Tournament team. Detwiler fanned 10.2 batters per 9 innings during his three-year career with the Bears and entered the '07 season as a Baseball America Pre-Season All-American. All that must seem like a lifetime ago for Detwiler, as he was billed as a “sure thing”. He’s run into some injury troubles and the Nats are giving him another shot. He’s appeared in 24 major-league games with 19 of those coming as a starter. His career numbers are not great (4.47 ERA, .286 BAA) but this has nothing to do with wagering on Detwiler and everything to do with betting against a bad Cubs team with an aging and washed up hurler grasping at straws. Play: Washington –1 +108 (Risking 2 units).


Colorado +128 over ATLANTA

This one is about as big a no-brainer as we’ve seen all year. Of course that doesn’t mean the Rocks will win but one really has to like their chances better than the Braves chances. Alex Gonzalez (three for his last 22), the ailing Chipper Jones (3-for-20), Freddy Freeman (4-for-21), Nate McLouth (2-for-13) and Dan Uggla (3-for-22) are all below the Mendoza Line over the last week. In seven starts at Fulton County Stadium, Derek Lowe has one win and an ERA of 5.03. Current Rockies hitters have a pretty decent history against him with 44 hits in 164 career AB’s for a BA of .268, a slugging of .457 and a OPS of .814. Lowe isn’t getting any younger and the miles on his arm could finally be taking its toll. The league hit .238 off him in May but his ERA in that month was 4.47. In June the league hit .265 off him and his ERA was 4.41. The real kicker is that Lowe is getting whacked by LH’s and the Rocks line-up is dominated by left-handed bats. Then we have Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin has posted some amazing skills during the last month that include a high strikeout rate, good control, a 60% GB%, 113 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) and a 2.82 xERA. Nothing favors the Braves here other than home field and at worst, this game should be a pick ‘em, thus creating the strong value. Play: Colorado +128 (Risking 2 units).


Kansas City +149 over CHICAGO

The White Sox continue to make a lot of bad pitchers look good and one could argue that the pitcher’s the South Side faced over the past couple of weeks are some of the worst in the game. That list includes Jeff Francis, Rodrigo Lopez, Randy Wells, Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel, Livan Hernandez, Tom Gorzelanny and Doug Davis. At best, those are all #5 guys in any rotation and at least half wouldn’t even be that. The White Sox didn’t make one or two of them look good, they made them all look like Roy Halladay. Tonight they’ll face Felipe Paulino, a guy with great skills that’s flying way under the radar. Paulino has been erratic and hittable in his transition back to a starting role. But his base skills in June were really good (33 k’s in 37 IP and a 3.58 ERA), not to mention a 49% GB% and a 104 BPV. With an average fastball velocity of 95 MPH and an effective slider, he's got the tools to dominate hitters in stretches. While he needs a third pitch to succeed long-term as a SP, this is a good spot to dominate. Over his last two starts, Paulino has struck out 15 and walked just two. This guy is coming on. The Royals continue to hit the ball. They’re second in the majors with a .270 BA hitting with two outs and RISP. Over the past 20 games they’re third in the majors with a BA of .281 and they’re in the top five in a whole slew of other key offensive categories. By contrast, the White Sox rank in the bottom three in every key category over the past 20 games and again, that’s after facing chicken fodder. Jake Peavy will make his third appearance in 10 days. He went four innings against the Nats on June 25, he went six innings against Colorado on June 30 and now on July 5, he’ll go again after spending 217 days on the DL over the past three years. This doesn’t make sense but either does Adam Dunn in the heart of the order with a .158 BA and striking out or hitting into a double play every time he’s up there. Play: Kansas City +149 (Risking 2 units).

 

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