STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT
TUESDAY, JULY 22ND 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#951 LA DODGERS @ #952 PITTSBURGH - 7:05 PM
•Dodgers RH Josh Beckett (6-5, 2.26 ERA, WHIP: 1.032) - Beckett yielded three hits in five scoreless frames at Colorado on July 6 in his most recent outing. Including his no-hitter at Philadelphia on May 25, he owns a 1.74 ERA over a span of nine starts, which includes five innings with two runs allowed against Pittsburgh at home on May 30. Overall, the 34-year-old is 1-2 with a 2.16 ERA in three career starts against the Pirates, none of which have taken place in the Steel City.
--KEY STAT: BECKETT is 9-20 (-13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BECKETT 3.7, OPPONENT 4.4.
--BECKETT is 10-29 against the run line (-22.3 Units) in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BECKETT 3.2, OPPONENT 4.4.
--BECKETT is 14-4 UNDER (+9.4 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BECKETT 3.3, OPPONENT 3.8.
•Pirates RH Vance Worley (2-1, 3.38 ERA, WHIP: 1.124) - Worley has not started since July 8, having thrown two innings in relief at Cincinnati in his final appearance before the All-Star break. He has lasted seven frames in each of his two home starts, allowing four runs on 11 hits along the way. Worley has surrendered nine runs in eight innings over two starts versus Los Angeles, but hasn't faced the Dodgers since 2012.
--KEY STAT: WORLEY is 18-6 OVER (+11.5 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WORLEY 5.0, OPPONENT 4.5.
#953 SAN FRANCISCO @ #954 PHILADELPHIA - 7:05 PM
•Giants RH Yusmeiro Petit (3-3, 3.86 ERA, WHIP: 1.159) - Petit has been hit hard by the Phillies throughout his career, posting a 7.71 ERA and a .327 opponents average across five appearances (one start). Jimmy Rollins has enjoyed success against him in limited opportunities with a walk, single, triple and home run in eight plate appearances. Petit, a 29-year-old Venezuelan, has allowed two earned runs in 15 1/3 innings over his last nine relief appearances.
--KEY STAT: PETIT is 14-3 OVER (+11.1 Units) when the money line is -100 to -150 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was PETIT 5.4, OPPONENT 7.0.
•Phillies RH Roberto Hernandez (4-8, 4.22 ERA, WHIP: 1.446) - Hernandez was up and down over the first half of the season but entered the All-Star break with three solid starts in a span of four outings. In his last start - a 4-1 victory at Milwaukee on July 9 - the Dominican Republic native yielded one run and three hits over eight innings. One downside for Hernandez, particularly over the last two months, has been his control as the former All-Star has walked at least two hitters in 10 straight starts.
--KEY STAT: HERNANDEZ is 9-20 (-11.0 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.4, OPPONENT 4.9.
--HERNANDEZ is 7-18 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.4, OPPONENT 5.0.
--HERNANDEZ is 22-8 UNDER (+13.0 Units) in home games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.4, OPPONENT 4.2.
--HERNANDEZ is 37-17 UNDER (+17.8 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.7, OPPONENT 4.1.
#955 MIAMI @ #956 ATLANTA - 7:10 PM
•Marlins RH Jacob Turner (2-6, 6.22 ERA, WHIP: 1.617) - Turner returns to the rotation after eight relief appearances, during which he allowed 21 hits and posted a 5.74 ERA in 15 2/3 innings. He started and lost against the Braves on May 31, yielding five runs (four earned) on seven hits in five innings, and fell from the rotation by allowing five runs in each of his next two starts. Turner last pitched July 13, giving up two runs in three innings of relief against the Mets.
•Braves LH Mike Minor (3-5, 4.86 ERA, WHIP: 1.488) - Minor beat the Cubs in his final start before the All-Star break July 12, but gave up six runs and 11 hits in six innings. He has surrendered nine hits or more in four of his past seven starts, but did strike out 11 at Washington on June 20. Minor’s WHIP of 1.49 is substantially higher than the 1.09 he posted last season and the 1.15 he recorded in 2012.
--KEY STAT: MINOR is 13-4 OVER (+9.5 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MINOR 5.0, OPPONENT 3.9.
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#957 SAN DIEGO @ #958 CHICAGO CUBS - 8:05 PM
•Padres LH Eric Stults (3-11, 4.98 ERA, WHIP: 1.440) - Stults has been susceptible to the long ball, allowing 18 homers in 99 1/3 innings this season, so his luck might depend on the direction the wind blows in the Friendly Confines. The difficulty keeping the ball in the park led to an NL-high 11 losses in the first half, but Stults posted a 2.59 ERA over his last four starts before the break. The 34-year-old is 1-5 with a 5.15 ERA in seven starts against the Cubs - including an 0-3 mark in four outings at Wrigley Field.
--KEY STAT: STULTS is 25-16 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STULTS 3.9, OPPONENT 3.6.
--STULTS is 0-5 against the run line (-8.1 Units) in road games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was STULTS 1.2, OPPONENT 5.0.
•Cubs RH Kyle Hendricks (0-0, 6.00 ERA, WHIP: 1.333) - Hendricks gets his second crack at seizing a spot in the depleted rotation after a respectable debut July 10 against the Reds in which he allowed four runs over six innings and struck out seven. Three of the four runs came in the first inning, but the 24-year-old settled in after that and gave the Cubs a solid outing. Hendricks and pitching coach Chris Bosio weren't pleased with tight strike zone that led to three walks in his big-league debut.
#959 CINCINNATI @ #960 MILWAUKEE - 8:10 PM
•Reds RH Homer Bailey (8-5, 4.21 ERA, WHIP: 1.326) - Bailey was removed after five-plus innings in his final start before the break, leaving immediately after feeling pain in his right patellar tendon during a pitch in the sixth. The 28-year-old did not factor in the decision of that 6-4 loss to the Chicago Cubs, permitting three runs on two hits and two walks. Bailey, who posted an 0.53 ERA in his previous two starts before the injury, has faced the Brewers three times in 2014 – going 1-1 with a 3.22 ERA – but is only 4-8 with a 4.96 ERA in 19 all-time turns against Milwaukee.
--KEY STAT: BAILEY is 20-9 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAILEY 5.4, OPPONENT 3.6.
--BAILEY is 3-12 (-9.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAILEY 2.6, OPPONENT 4.5.
--BAILEY is 11-4 OVER (+7.3 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAILEY 4.7, OPPONENT 4.3.
--BAILEY is 9-2 OVER (+7.3 Units) against division opponents this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAILEY 5.0, OPPONENT 4.8.
•Brewers RH Jimmy Nelson (1-1, 5.40 ERA, WHIP: 1.800) - Making his first major-league start in nearly two months, Nelson suffered his first career loss in a 10-2 setback against St. Louis on July 12. The Oregon native was pounded for eight runs (six earned) on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings – a complete departure from his May 25 season debut in which he held Miami scoreless over 5 2/3 frames. Nelson, who went 10-2 with a 1.46 ERA in 17 appearances for Triple-A Nashville to earn his promotion, struck out a pair in a scoreless inning of relief in his first-ever appearance against the Reds last September.
#961 WASHINGTON @ #962 COLORADO - 8:40 PM
•Nationals RH Jordan Zimmermann (6-5, 3.03 ERA, WHIP: 1.212) - Zimmermann has been working his way through a biceps issue but managed to avoid the disabled list after getting through long toss on Thursday and a successful bullpen session two days later. His last start came on July 11, when he was reached for four runs over 3 1/3 innings in a loss at Philadelphia. Zimmermann yielded two runs in six frames to defeat the Rockies at home on June 30.
--KEY STAT: ZIMMERMANN is 14-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ZIMMERMANN 5.9, OPPONENT 2.1.
•Rockies LH Yohan Flande (0-2, 7.36 ERA, WHIP: 1.705) - Flande was pounded for five runs and nine hits in 4 1/3 innings by the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 6 in his previous outing for the Rockies, failing to strike out a single batter in his third start of the season - and his major-league career. He then returned to Triple-A Colorado Springs and surrendered eight runs over six frames in a pair of appearances. The 28-year-old Dominican gave up three runs in 5 1/3 innings of a loss at Washington opposite Zimmermann last month.
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