Jeff Scott Sports
Detroit -119 over KANSAS CITY 3 UNIT PLAY
The Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 18-5 in Rogers' last 23 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, while the 9-24 in their last 33 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 0-8 in Davies' last 8 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. After starting the season with a 4-4 mark and a 6.66 ERA, Kenny Rogers has come back to go 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA in his last 10 starts, including a 2-1 mark with a 2.88 ERA in his last 5 road starts. Kenny is also 13-9 with a 4.05 ERA since 1997 vs the Royals. It has been the opposite for Kyle Davies, as he started out 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his first 4 starts of the year, but since then he has gone 0-1 with a 6.03 ERA in his last 5 starts. Kyle is 1-1 with a 4.60 ERA at home, allowing teams a .388 OBP, while posting a 1.72 WHIP. Way too many baseruners to give this hot hitting Detroit team. The Tigers come in hitting .300 and scoring 8.7 rpg in their last 10 games, plus they have put up 8.8 rpg since the break and they hit .290 and score 5.5 rpg during their night games this year. That is one hot offense. The Royals offense has been better of late, putting up 5.1 rpg in their last 8, but this team still averages just 4.3 rpg at home and 4.1 rpg within the division. Detroit clearly has the pitching and offensive edges in this one, plus they have gone 16-6 in the last 22 meetings at KC and KC is 4-13 in game 2 of a series off a loss. The Royals took the 1st 6 in this series but that was when the Tigers sucked and the Royals were surprisingly good, now things are different and the Tigers showed how much better than the Royals they are with a big 19-4 win last night. It won't be that easy tonight but they will still pick up a nice win and continue their climb back.
2 UNIT PLAYS
HOUSTON/ Pittsburgh Over 9.5
The Over is 37-14-3 in Pirates last 54 road games and 40-16-3 in Pirates last 59 games as a road underdog, while the Over is 9-4 in Astros last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record, plus the Over is 35-17-4 in Reynolds' last 56 games behind home plate and 5-1 in his last 6 games behind home plate vs. Pittsburgh. Last night there were just too many overwhelming stats that pointed to the over and it made the play look too easy. Well if Houston's pen hadn't given up 7 runs in the ninth my thought process would have been dead on. Tonight the stats aren't so lopsided and that makes me feel better. Paul Maholm has not pitched that bad with a 4.10 ERA overall, but he does have a 5.10 ERA on the road, with his road starts averaging 9.6 rpg. Paul has a 5.55 ERA in 8 career starts vs the 'Stros, including a 13.88 ERA in his 3 trips to Minutemaid Park with tose 3 trips averaging 10.3 rpg. Jack Cassell has 2 starts for Houston this year and has a 5.58 ERA in those starts. He will be facing a Pittsburgh team that scores 5.1 rpg on the road and they have put up 5.1 rpg in their last 7 games.Pittsburgh road games have averaged 11.6 rpg, while their last 7 games have averaged 12.7 rpg. Houston offense has been sputtering of late as they have put just 2.9 rpg on the board in thier last 7 games, but they have hit Paul well in his career and they do hit .277 and score 4.5 rpg at home. This game also features a Pitt pen that has a 5.36 ERA on the road and a Houston pen that has a 5.11 ERA at home. I have no doubt that both teams will be able to put at least 5 runs on the board and that should easily give us a winner on the Over.
ST LOUIS -135 over Milwaukee
The Brewers are 12-28 in their last 40 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 1-8 in Suppans last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, while the Cardinals are 23-10 in their last 33 during game 2 of a series and 11-1 in Lohses last 12 starts. Jeff Suppan comes into ths game struggling as he has a 1-2 record with a 10.34 ERA in his last 4 starts. Jeff also has struggled on the road this year, going 3-5 with a 6.04 ERA, including an 0-1 mark with a 7.36 ERA in his last 2 starts away from home. Jeff has also allowed teams a .385 OBP and he has a 1.73 WHIP in his road starts this year. Kyle Lohse has not been struggling this year, as he is 12-2 with a 3.35 ERA overall, including a 6-1 mark with a 2.73 ERA at home and an 8-0 mark with a 2.20 ERA at night. Kyle has really looked sharp in his last 4 starts, posting a 3-0 record with a 1.29 ERA. In Kyle's home starts he has allowed teams a .269 OBP and has a 1.04 WHIP. The Brewers offense hit's just .244 and scores 4.5 rpg vs righty starters on the year, plus they score just 4.6 rog on the road and 4.2 rpg at night. The St Louis offense has been on fire lately, as they come in scoring 7.9 rpg over their last 7 games, including 6.6 rpg on their current homestand. T^he Cards hit righty starters pretty well as they score 5 rpg and hit .280 vs them on the year. The Cards don't score that well at home overall, but I do see them getting their fair share vs a struggling Suppan tonight. The Cards lost last night's game and that makes this game an important one as they know they face CC and Sheets in the next 2 games. St louis will bounce back tonight.
1 UNIT PLAY
Toronto/ Baltimore Over 9
The Over is 10-1-1 in Blue Jays last 12 during game 2 of a series and 6-1-1 in Marcums last 8 starts vs. American League East, while the Over is 17-5-1 in Orioles last 23 games as an underdog and 10-2 in Orioles last 12 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, plus the Over is 13-1 in the last 14 meetings. This has been a trully high scoring series of late with 13 of the last 14 in this series scoring 9 or more runs, with the average rpg scored being 12.4 rpg, including 12.1 rpg in the last 6 meetings in Baltimore. Shawn Marcum has been good for the Jays this year with a 2.65 ERA overall, but in his 3 career starts in Camden Yards he has a 7.91 ERA, with those 3 games averaging 12.7 rpg. He will be facing an O's offense that has scored 5.4 rpg in their last 11 and 6.4 rpg on their current homestand. Baltimore has also scored 5.9 rpg vs Toronto pitching this year, and 5.3 rpg at home overall. The Jays haven't hit lefties all that well this year, but they did tag Garret Olsen for 7 run in 3.2 innings of work, 13 days ago. Garret has 2 lifetime starts vs the Jay's and has given up 12 ER on 13 hits and 8 walks in just 6.2 innings of work. Overall Garrett has not pitched that well this year with his ERA being 5.79 overall, 4.76 at home and 6.64 at night. Garrett has really been awfull in his last 7 starts, posting an 8.23 ERA over that stretch, with those games averaging 12.1 rpg, plus his home starts this year have averaged 10.6 rpg, while his night starts have averaged 10.4 rpg. All I need is 4 runs from each team to at least get the push and with the way both teams score vs one another, i don't see that as being a problem. I'll call for about 13 runs in this one.