STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, JUNE 10TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 6/10/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #11
•Orioles Lights Out With Tillman On Mound Versus Boston: Chris Tillman has absolutely owned the Red Sox lately and he'll get a chance to do it again when his Orioles host their American League East rival Boston Red Sox (7:05 PM EST) Tuesday night. The Birds are 8-1 in Tillman's last nine starts versus the BoSox. Right-hander Brandon Workman gets the ball for the Red Sox. The Orioles are currently -113 favorites.
•Holland Not Ready For Rehab Assignment: After running through around fifteen minutes of fielding drills before Wednesday’s game, Rangers manager Ron Washington said starting pitcher Derek Holland isn’t ready for a rehab assignment yet. While he said he believes he is ready, Holland said he could feel his leg was still stiff through covering first and fielding bunts down both lines. The staff watching Holland through the workout, including Washington, knew he wasn’t ready yet before he went over to talk with them, Holland said.
Holland will be sent to Arizona on Wednesday to throw live batting practice and continue working on the leg strength of his surgically repaired left knee that was injured before the beginning of the season, resulting in the left-handed pitcher missing the entire season to date. He is expected to return from Surprise on June 24. While he said he agrees with the precaution taken, his frustration was evident. “I feel like I can go out and play with it, but the real thing is that is not going to happen,” Holland said. Washington, on the other hand, said there is no need to worry as Holland’s rehab remains on schedule.
•Walker's Absence Opens Door For Pirates' Polanco: Gregory Polanco is finally coming to the major leagues but it is at the expense of one of the Pirates' best players. The 22-year-old outfielder will be called up from Triple-A Indianapolis prior to Tuesday's game against the Chicago Cubs. He will take the roster spot of second baseman Neil Walker, who underwent an emergency appendectomy Monday night after being scratched from the lineup about an hour before the Pirates' 6-2 victory over the Cubs. Polanco is expected to become the regular right fielder, replacing Josh Harrison, who will move to second base in Walker's absence.
The Pirates will be moving on for possibly the next month without Walker, who is hitting .280 with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs in 61 games. He is leading National League second basemen in homers, RBIs and fielding percentage as he has committed only one error in 237 total chances for a .996 mark. Polanco, 22, has been tearing up the International League all season. In 62 games, he hit .347 with seven home runs, 49 RBIs, 15 stolen bases, a .405 on-base percentage and a .540 slugging percentage. The Pirates had been widely criticized by fans and in the media for not bringing up Polanco sooner, especially with a need in right field. While the Pirates denied it, most people inside the game believe they kept Polanco down in order to make sure he did not accrue enough service time to gain an extra year of salary arbitration rights, which would be costly to the low-budget franchise.
•Cahill Wants To Remain With Diamondbacks: The Arizona Diamondbacks designated right-hander Trevor Cahill for assignment Monday, but it seems that both sides would like the relationship to continue. The D-backs have 10 days to release, outright, trade or option Cahill, but both general manager Kevin Towers and Cahill seemed to indicate that Cahill would be content to accept a minor league assignment if the process goes that far. That could happen if Cahill clears waivers and accepts a minor league assignment rather that elect to become a free agent. He would be placed in a minor league starting rotation in that scenario.
Cahill is 1-6 with a 5.66 ERA in his most mystifying season. He was removed from the starting rotation in mid-April after going 0-4 with 9.17 ERA in his first four starts, but he has pitched better out of the bullpen since. Cahill won 10, 18, 12 and 13 games in his first four major league seasons, the first three with Oakland before being acquired by the D-backs before the 2012 season. He was 8-10 in an injury-shortened 2013, missing seven weeks with a hip injury.
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Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Kennedy is 3-0, 2.00 in his last three starts.
-- Beckett is 3-2, 2.37 in his last six starts.
-- Minor is 2-2, 1.87 in his last five starts.
-- Bumgarner is 6-0, 2.11 in his last seven starts. Fister is 4-0, 2.49 in his last four outings.
-- Happ is 4-1, 3.90 in his last five starts.
-- Kluber is 4-0, 2.55 in his last seven starts.
-- Danks has a 1.19 RA in his last three starts.
-- Vargas is 1-0, 1.77 in his last three starts.
-- Pomeranz has a 2.25 RA in three road starts.
-- Iwakuma has a 2.79 RA in his four home starts.
-- Wainwright is 2-0, 1.13 in his last three road starts.
-- Peacock is 2-0, 3.06 in his last three starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Liriano is 1-3, 5.66 in his last four starts. Wood has a 7.32 RA in his last six.
-- Burnett is 0-2, 8.55 in his last three starts.
-- Leake is 1-2, 5.82 in his last three starts.
-- Estrada has a 6.08 RA in his last four starts. Matsuzaka has a 5.23 RA in his first two starts for the Mets.
-- Nicasio is 0-2, 10.80 in his last two starts.
-- Correia is 0-2, 5.00 in his last three starts.
-- Tillman has a 12.56 RA in his last four starts. Workman is 0-0, 4.70 in three starts for Boston.
-- Nuno is 0-2, 6.18 in his last five starts.
-- Verlander is 1-3, 7.96 in his last four starts.
-- Santiago is 0-4, 7.36 in his last four starts.
-- Odorizzi is 0-3, 6.16 in his last four starts.
-- Koehler is 1-2, 6.88 in his last three starts. Lewis is 1-2, 7.25 in his last four.
-- Arroyo is 1-2, 5.13 in his last four starts.
•Totals
-- Six of Cubs' last eight road games went over.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Dodger road games.
-- Over is 11-1-1 in last thirteen Brewer games.
-- Seven of last nine San Diego games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine games at Coors Field.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Washington road games.
-- Six of last seven Toronto home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last eleven Baltimore home games went over.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Kansas City games.
-- Ten of last thirteen White Sox home games stayed under; over is 5-0-1 in last six Detroit games.
-- Eight of last eleven Angel games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-5 in last fourteen Yankees road games.
-- Five of Marlins' last six road games went over total.
-- Nine of last twelve Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Arizona home games stayed under.
•Hot Teams
-- Cubs won five of their last seven games. Pittsburgh won six of last nine at home.
-- Brewers won three of their last four games.
-- Dodgers won seven of their last ten road games.
-- Nationals won eight of its last ten games. San Francisco won nine of their last eleven home games.
-- Blue Jays won seven of their last nine games.
-- Indians won nine of their last ten games. Kansas City won five of its last seven games.
-- White Sox won five of their last seven home games.
-- Athletics won seven of its last ten games. Los Angeles won eight of their last nine home games.
-- Mariners won eight of their last ten games.
-- Cardinals won five of their last seven road games.
-- Marlins won seven of their last ten road games.
-- Astros won eight of last nine away games. Arizona won five of its last seven games overall.
•Cold Teams
-- Mets lost their last six games; bullpen lost five of the six.
-- Reds are 3-6 in its last nine home games.
-- Phillies lost eight of their last nine games. San Diego lost five of last seven.
-- Rockies lost ten of its last 11 games. Atlanta lost four of their last six.
-- Twins lost 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Red Sox lost six of its last seven games. Baltimore lost three of their last five.
-- Tigers lost eight of its last eleven road games.
-- Yankees lost six of their last eight games.
-- Rays lost 13 of its last 14 games.
-- Rangers lost seven of their last ten games.
•Umpires Trends
-- Chi-Pitt-- Five of six Woodring games went over.
-- LA-Cin-- Underdogs won four of last six Reynolds games.
-- Atl-Col-- Seven of eight Conroy games went over.
-- Wsh-SF-- Home side is 25-11 in last 36 Marquez games.
-- Min-Tor-- Over is 10-1-1 in last twelve Barber games.
-- Bos-Balt-- Underdogs won six of last nine Gorman games.
-- Det-Chi-- Six of last nine Diaz games went over total.
-- A's-LA-- Nine of last twelve Davidson games stayed under.
-- Hst-Az-- Six of last eight Drake games went over total.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
•SAN FRANCISCO is 27-8 (+20.9 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.6, OPPONENT 2.9.
•LA ANGELS are 24-6 OVER (+17.3 Units) versus teams outscoring opponent by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 5.3, OPPONENT 5.7.
•TAMPA BAY is 6-24 (-20.7 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.8, OPPONENT 4.7.
•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 9-20 (-24.8 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 4.1, OPPONENT 4.9.
•A.J. BURNETT is 48-17 UNDER (+29.3 Units) in home games versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was BURNETT 3.9, OPPONENT 3.4.
•JOSH BECKETT is 7-28 (-24.7 Units) against the run line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BECKETT 3.2, OPPONENT 4.6.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (WASHINGTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) - National League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts.
(45-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +31.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -153.9
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +1.8)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2, +1.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (32-8, +19.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (69-24, +31.5 units).
•Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (NY YANKEES) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts.
(43-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.1%, +38.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (40-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2, money line price: +124
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 27 (46.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0, +4.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-10, +28.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (51-29, +31 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA >=4.50), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season.
(84-43 since 1997.) (66.1%, +38.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-105.2
The average score in these games was: Team 4.7, Opponent 5.1 (Total runs scored = 9.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 71 (56.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-6, -1.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-13, +2.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-19, +9.6 units).
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w-thumbs!^
