STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, MAY 27th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 5/27/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #9
When we here at StatSystemsSports.net said that "winning never gets old" for Stan ‘The Man Szumera, we weren't lying! The Man is coming off an AWESOME 9-1-1 Weekend (including 6-0 in Major League Baseball!) and is now 34-12 overall (73.9%) the last 31 days (17-4 last 21 MLB)! Talk about a run! "If you haven't subscribed yet, then do so now... You'll be real glad you did!"
As the Major League Baseball season enters the final week of May, it has recently crossed over the quarter point of its 162-game schedule. Some of the preseason favorites have held their ground through their first 45+ games, but a few contenders have fallen off the pace. Conversely, a few teams that were quickly written off as long shots before they even played their first game are making some early noise in the division standings.
Sportsbook.ag has recently updated its MLB futures odds to win each division as well as the American and National League Pennant and the World Series. The following is a brief look a few teams that currently offer the best value in their futures odds to win their division race or league pennant.
•Los Angeles Angels
The Angels started the season as second or third-favorites to win the American League West behind Oakland and Texas, but through this past Sunday’s games they are just a game and a half behind the Athletics in the standings with an overall record of 28-21. Texas has fallen five games off the pace, followed by Seattle (-5.5) and Houston (-11.5), so this appears to be turning into a two-team race for the division title.
Los Angeles’s current odds to win the AL West are 7/4 as opposed to Oakland’s odds of 2/3. The A’s do have the top team ERA in the American League at 2.90, but the Angels are currently ranked fourth with a team ERA of 3.61. When it comes to scoring runs, these two teams occupy the same exact ranking in the AL, with the A’s pounding out 248 runs so far as compared to the Angels’ 241 total runs. Given the difference in the odds, we here at StatSystemsSports.net are going with Los Angeles in terms of maximizing the value in the numbers.
•San Francisco Giants
Switching over to the National League West, the surprising San Francisco Giants have opened up a five-game lead over Colorado in the standings with an overall record of 32-18, which is the best in the majors. They started the season as distant second-favorites to win the division, well behind the heavily-favored Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are 5.5 games back at 27-24, followed by San Diego (-9.5) and Arizona (-13).
It’s hard to say whether or not the Giants can maintain this blistering pace over the next 110 games or so. This fast start now has them favored over the Dodgers to win the NL West, so some of that value has been drained, but there is some solid value in their current 9/2 odds to win the National League Pennant. San Francisco is ranked fourth in the NL in scoring with an average of 4.2 runs per game, and it is backing that up with a 3.05 team ERA that is ranked second.
•Milwaukee Brewers
Few baseball experts had the Brewers taking the early lead in the NL Central after last season’s three-way battle royale to the division title between St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Some of the bloom is off the rose with Milwaukee after struggling a bit the past few weeks, but it is still holding down the top spot over the Cardinals by a game and half with a record of 30-21. The Reds are 6.5 games back, followed by the Pirates at seven games back. The Chicago Cubs (-10.5) are once again bringing up the rear.
The Brewers’ current odds to keep this ride going all the way to a NL Central title are 7/4 as opposed to the Cardinals’ odds of 5/8 to come out on top again in this division. While we’re not all that thrilled at betting against St. Louis and its ability to take control of this race, there is some definite value in Milwaukee’s odds. The Brewers have a respectable team ERA of 3.29, and they are banging out an average of 3.90 runs per game. If they can maintain these numbers as the season wears on, there is no reason they should not stay in the NL Central Division race until the last days of the season.
Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Alvarez is 2-1, 3.06 in his last seven starts.
-- De La Rosa is 5-0, 1.85 in his last six starts. Hamels is 1-0, 2.14 in last three.
-- Simon is 2-0, 0.61 in his last couple starts.
-- Greinke is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
-- Hudson is 3-1, 2.16 in his last five starts. Arrieta is 2-0, 2.79 in four starts this season.
-- Cobb is 1-0, 0.00 (20.2 IP) in his last three starts. Buehrle is 4-0, 2.43 in his last five starts.
-- Sale is 4-0, 1.89 in his five starts this season.
-- Hughes is 5-0, 1.83 in his last six starts. Darvish is 3-1, 2.10 in his last four.
-- Weaver is 5-1, 1.70 in his last seven starts.
-- Scherzer is 6-0, 2.54 in his last seven starts. Gray is 2-0, 1.75 in his last five.
-- Chen is 2-0, 3.79 in his last three starts.
-- Lynn is 1-0, 2.77 in his last two starts. Phelps is 1-1, 1.50 in his last two.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Treinen is 0-2, 4.22 in two starts this season.
-- Volquez is 1-4, 5.97 in his last six starts. Niese is 1-1, 5.82 in his last three.
-- Stults is 0-2, 5.56 in his last two starts.
-- Miley is 1-3, 5.23 in his last five starts.
-- Masterson is 0-2, 9.98 in his last three starts.
-- McHugh is 0-3, 5.56 in his last four starts. Guthrie is 0-2, 4.54 in his last five outings.
-- Elias is 0-1, 5.19 in his last three starts.
-- Lester is 0-2, 6.17 in his last two starts. Harang is 1-3, 7.07 in his last five.
-- Garza is 0-1, 4.91 in his last three starts.
•Totals
-- Under is 5-1 in Pittsburgh's last six road games.
-- Seven of last ten Miami road games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Cub games stayed under.
-- Eight of last ten Colorado road games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Arizona games stayed under total.
-- Under is 10-5 in last fifteen Cincinnati road games.
-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Texas road games.
-- Over is 9-5 in White Sox' last fourteen games.
-- Last eight Detroit games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-3-2 in last thirteen Angel games.
-- Under is 4-1 in last five Toronto home games.
-- Nine of last thirteen Houston road games stayed under.
-- Under is 16-4-2 in last 22 Atlanta home games.
-- Under is 7-3-2 in last twelve Milwaukee games.
-- Four of last six St Louis home games stayed under.
•Hot Teams
-- Pirates won five of last six games, but are 5-13 in last 18 on road.
-- Dodgers won five of their last seven games.
-- Giants won five of its last seven games.
-- Rangers won five of their last six games.
-- Angels won 12 of their last 17 games.
-- Blue Jays won nine of their last eleven games. Tampa Bay won four of its last five games.
-- Astros won its last three games.
-- Cardinals won nine of their last twelve games. New York is 9-5 in last fourteen road games.
•Cold Teams
-- Mets lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Marlins lost seven of its last 11 away games. Washington lost five of its last six games.
-- Cubs lost seven of their last eleven road games.
-- Rockies lost six of their last seven road games. Philadelphia lost four of their last six games.
-- Diamondbacks lost 16 of its 23 home games. San Diego lost six of its last eight games overall.
-- Reds lost nine of last twelve road games.
-- Twins lost its last four games.
-- White Sox are 5-7 in their last dozen home games. Cleveland lost four of its last five games.
-- Tigers lost seven of its last eight games. Oakland lost four of its last five games, but won eight of last nine at home.
-- Mariners are 5-6 in their last eleven home games.
-- Royals are 5-9 in its last 14 home games.
-- Red Sox lost 10 of their last 11 games. Atlanta is 6-7 in its last 13 games.
-- Brewers lost six of its last nine games. Baltimore lost four of their last five road games.
•Umpires Trends
-- Mia-Wsh-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Buckminster games.
-- Col-Phil-- Five of last six Gorman games stayed under.
-- Pitt-NY-- Underdogs won last seven Fagan games; last five stayed under.
-- SD-Az-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Cooper games.
-- Cin-LA-- Eight of eleven GGibson games stayed under.
-- Chi-SF-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Fletcher games.
-- TB-Tor-- Underdogs won eight of last nine Hudson games.
-- Cle-Chi-- Underdogs won seven of nine Hickox games.
-- Hst-KC-- Last three Danley games stayed under total.
-- Tex-Min-- Five of last six Estabrook games went over.
-- Det-A's-- Over is 54-36 in Campos games since 2008.
-- LA-Sea-- Underdogs won four of last seven HGibson games.
-- Bos-Atl-- Eight of last nine Davidson games stayed under.
-- Blt-Mil-- Five of last seven Reyburn games went over.
-- NY-StL-- Underdogs are 6-4 in Morales games this season.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
•CLEVELAND is 62-29 (+37.4 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 5.0, OPPONENT 3.7.
•KANSAS CITY is 52-26 UNDER (+21.8 Units) versus an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.4, OPPONENT 3.8.
•MILWAUKEE is 37-18 (+25.5 Units) against the run line in home games versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.3, OPPONENT 3.9.
•ALFREDO SIMON is 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
The average score was SIMON 3.4, OPPONENT 1.4.
•ERIC STULTS is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was STULTS 2.5, OPPONENT 4.1.
•YU DARVISH is 5-19 (-17.1 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with a batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DARVISH 3.4, OPPONENT 3.3.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (CLEVELAND) - poor hitting American League team (AVG <=.260) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start.
(102-26 since 1997.) (79.7%, +54.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -183.5
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 3.2 (Average run differential = +2.3)
The situation's record this season is: (7-4, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-10, +14.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (63-18, +30.7 units).
•Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (TORONTO) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) - American League, with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season.
(54-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (72%, +36.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (50-25 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.5, money line price: +107
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 3.5 (Average run differential = +1.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 45 (60% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3, -0.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-10, +1.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (96-60, +29.6 units).
•Play Over - Road teams (SAN DIEGO) - team with a poor on base percentage (<=.310) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.250 to 1.300) - National League, with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities.
(31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 7.4, Money Line=-102.5
The average score in these games was: Team 5.7, Opponent 5.3 (Total runs scored = 10.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 28 (77.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-5, +15.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (46-23, +21.6 units).
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w-thumbs!^
