STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/20/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Tuesday, 5/20/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_________________________________________________________________________
NBA Playoff Journal (May 19)
The Pacers stumbled to the 'finish line' of the regular season, edging the Heat by two games for the East's best record, earning the No. 1 seed. However, while the two-time defending champs cruised through the first two rounds (4-0 sweep of the Charolett Bobcats / 4-1 win over the Brooklyn Nets), the Pacers found themselves down 3-2 in their first two playoff series to the 38-44 Atlanta Hawks and then lost Games #1 and #5 at home to the Washington Wizards, finally ousting a franchise which had last won a second round series in 1979, in six games.
It wasn't pretty but the Pacers reached the conference finals for the second straight year and according to Elias, the Pacers are the first No. 1 seed to enter the Conference Finals with a postseason home record below .500 (3-4) in NBA playoff history. However, the Pacers sure "came to play" in Sunday's Game #1. All five starters reached double digits, as the frontcourt of George (24-4-7), West (19 & 7) and Hibbert (19 & 7) were terrific (Hibbert's turnaround is nothing short of remarkable!). The backcourt also played well, with Stephenson getting 17-4-8 and Hill, despite making just 3 of 9 from the floor, scoring 15 points (all three made FGs were three-pointers and he went 6 of 6 from the FT line). The Pacers shot 51.5% as a team.
The Heat, the NBA's top-shooting team during the regular season (50.1%), connected on 51.3% but converted only 6 of 23 on threes. LeBron James and Wade shot a combined 63.9% (23 of 36) while scoring 52 points but even though reserves Anderson (14 points on 6 of 7 shooting) and Allen (12 points) each contributed, Miami still lost by 11 points! The team's total of just FOUR offensive rebounds spoke volumes regarding to how badly the Heat were outplayed.
The win and cover by the home team makes them 39-34 straight-up (.534) in the postseason to-date but it will be nearly impossible for home teams to get out of the ATS 'hole' they have dug for themselves. Indiana's cover on Sunday leaves home teams 28-42-3 ATS (40.0% or minus-18.2 net games). The total 'flew' over which is nothing new, as there have now been 43 overs and 30 unders in the 2014 playoffs (58.9% favoring the over).
The Western Conference finals open Monday evening at 9:00 EST on TNT, as the Thunder meet the Spurs. San Antonio finished 62-20, which was three games better than Oklahoma City, giving the Spurs the highly-desirable No. 1 seed and home court edge in ALL 2014 playoff series. However, as we're sure MOST know, the Thunder made it a perfect 4-0 sweep of San Antonio this regular season.
San Antonio needed seven games to get past the hated-Mavericks in the first round but the team's 119-96 Game #7 win over Dallas, 'lit a spark' under the Spurs. They easily took care of the Trail Blazers in five games in the second round, losing only Game #4, after taking an insurmountable 3-0 lead in that series. Doing the math, the Spurs have won FIVE of their last six postseason games, with those victories coming by margins of 23, 24, 17, 15 and 22 points!
As for OKC, they lost a critical Game #5 at home against Memphis and needed to win Game #6 at Memphis, then Game #7 back at home versus the Grizzlies to escape the first round. Taking NOTHING away from the Thunder, a timely injury to Memphis PG Mike Conley plus a controversial Z-Bo punch (which resulted in Randolph being suspended for Game #7), didn't hurt. The Thunder then immediately fell behind the Clippers by getting blown out at home in Game #1 and after blowing a 16-point, 4th quarter lead at LA in Game #4 (could have gone up 3-1), benefited from Chris Paul's final-minute 'meltdown' in Game #5, giving them a 3-2 lead (Clippers looked 'spent' down the stretch in Game #6).
However, Oklahoma City surely was looking forward to playing the Spurs, with the confidence of the team's 4-0 regular-season sweep but the Game #6 win over the Clippers came at a HUGE price, as valuable power forward Serge Ibaka is out for the series with a calf injury. Ibaka was averaging 12.2 & 7.3 this postseason and is the Thunders best defender (inside and out!). Durant (31.4-9.5-4,3) and Westbrook (26.6-8.0-8.4) are having terrific postseasons but without Ibaka, only backup PG Jackson (10.7) is averaging more than 6.5 PPG. Six others get between 11.2 and 24.5 PPG but Butler leads that group with a only 6.5 PPG average.
In comparison, the Spurs saw NINE players average between 8.2 and 16.7 PPG in the regular season. Here in the playoffs, the "Big 3" have reminded all just why the trio will play in their seventh Western Conference finals together, starting with Game #1 Monday night in San Antonio (group has won three titles since 2003 / Duncan won a fourth in 1999). Parker leads the team in scoring this postseason (19.3-4.9 APG), followed by Duncan (15.8-8.3) and Ginobili (13.9-3.7-4.3). Leonard's (14.0-7.5) had an excellent postseason and FIVE more players chip in between 5.9-to-9.1 PPG. The Spurs are about a 2-to-1 favorite to win the series and a 5 1/2-point choice in Game #1 with a total of 209.
_______________________________________________
StatSystems Sports
Your #1 Source for Winning Information
StatSystemsSports.net takes pride in providing the average player with an edge by building a full in-depth analysis of football, basketball and baseball games. All aspects of games are considered. These include; but are not limited to, injuries, weather, playing surface, team chemistry, individual match-ups, line moves, scheduling, fatigue, statistical analysis, trend analysis, etc. The better prepared you are - The better chance you have of winning, plain and simple.
"Get the most sought after plays in the industry today!" Call us today for a 1 Day VIP Pass - $29.00, 7 Day VIP Pass - $149.00, or get our most popular 30 Day VIP Package for just $499.00. "You'll be Real Glad You Did!"
________________________________________________________
Eastern Conference Finals
#505 MIAMI @ #506 INDIANA
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Heat -2.5, Total: 184) - The real Indiana Pacers are in the process of standing up, and the Miami Heat are going to need stand up right alongside. The Heat will attempt to draw even in the Eastern Conference finals when they visit the Indiana Pacers for Game #2 on Tuesday night. Indiana limped through the last half of the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs but was clearly the dominant team in Game #1, leading wire-to-wire as Miami struggled to get stops.
The Pacers enjoyed their highest-scoring game of the postseason with the 107-96 Game #1 victory and got at least 15 points from all five starters. “It’s a good start to the series but it’s just a good start, that’s all it is,” Indiana coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “We’ve got to expect a great fight in Game #2.” The Heat lost for just the second time in the playoffs but remained unconcerned and confident moving forward. “They took care of business in Game #1, but we’ll figure it out for Game #2,” said LeBron James, who put up 25 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and three steals for Miami.
•ABOUT THE HEAT (62-30 SU, 43-47-2 ATS): Miami stuck with the small lineup that served it well in the semifinals instead of trying to match Indiana’s bigger starters. That plan left center Chris Bosh along the perimeter, where he went 0-of-5 from 3-point range and finished with just nine points, and put him on bruising Roy Hibbert defensively. “That’s probably us at our worst defensively,” coach Eric Spoelstra told reporters. “You have to give (the Pacers) the credit.... It’s a matchup collectively that we have to figure out. That’s the whole point of competition.” The Heat got a strong performance from guard Dwyane Wade, who scored a game-high 27 points on 12-of-18 shooting.
•ABOUT THE PACERS (65-31 SU, 46-49-1 ATS): Indiana made it a goal at the beginning of the season to earn homecourt advantage over Miami and made sure it would not suffer a letdown at home. The Pacers, who dropped Game #1 at home in each of the two previous rounds, scored the first seven points and never trailed in Game #1, keeping the advantage at double figures for most of the fourth quarter. “We’re just being aggressive off the bounce, trying to attack, force help and then share it,” Vogel said. “It’s a pretty simple plan. It’s not always easiest to execute, but I thought our guys executed pretty well offensively.” Paul George led with 24 points and C.J. Watson provided key minutes off the bench.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Pacers attempted 22 more free throws than the Heat in Game #1.... The home team has taken nine straight meetings between the teams.... Indiana F Evan Turner was inactive and not in the building for Game #1 due to strep throat and is day-to-day.... Miami is 43-28 against the spread (60.5%) in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more three-point shots/game on the season over the last two seasons.... The Pacers are 4-14 versus the spread (22.2%) versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
-- In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA covered the spread 532 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 468 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 522 times, while INDIANA won 445 times. In 1000 simulated games, 532 games went under the total, while 454 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
-- In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA covered the first half line 516 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 484 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 536 games went under first half total, while 464 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 46-38 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--INDIANA is 46-40 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--47 of 86 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--INDIANA is 47-38 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--46 of 85 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
--Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 overall.
--Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 road games.
--Over is 4-0 in Heat L4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Pacers are 3-15 ATS L18 after scoring 100 points or more LG..
--Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 Tuesday games.
--Over is 5-1-1 in Pacers L7 when their opponent allowed 100 points or more LG.
•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a road favorite, after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.
(37-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.0%, +30.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (37-7 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0
The average score in these games was: Team 101.1, Opponent 94.8 (Average point differential = +6.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 26 (60.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-2).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (85-50).
_______________________________
w-thumbs!^
