Service Plays Tuesday 4/8/14

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Tuesday's National League games:

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies (-122, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Brewers right-hander Kyle Lohse was just 4-6 with a 3.76 ERA on the road in 2013, compared to a 7-4, 2.97 mark at home.

Hot batting stat: Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard is 10-for 22 with a pair of homers in his career versus Lohse.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing from left to right field at 16 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 12-3-1 in Milwaukee's last 16 games as a road underdog.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-154, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Giants right-hander Tim Hudson threw 7 2/3 shutout innings with seven strikeouts to win his San Francisco debut.

Cold batting stat: Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero has just three hits in 16 career at-bats against Hudson, striking out five times.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under clear skies with wind blowing out to center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Arizona is 3-13 in its last 16 series openers.

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (-184, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Nationals left-hander Gio Gonzalez dominated Miami in 2013, going 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA in three starts.

Hot batting stat: Washington outfielder Bryce harper his 5-for-10 with two homers against Marlins starter Henderson Alvarez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing from left to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Marlins are 6-0 in their last six games against a left-handed starter.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-135, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Mets right-hander Bartolo Colon was 10-3 with a 2.73 ERA in 14 road starts last season.

Hot batting stat: New York third baseman David Wright is batting 11-for-21 with seven RBIs lifetime against Braves starter Aaron Harang.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with cloudy skies and wind blowing from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 6-1 in Atlanta's last seven Tuesday games.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (113, OFF)

Hot pitching stat: Cubs right-hander Edwin Jackson allowed just six home runs in 78 home innings a season ago.

Hot batting stat: Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen is 8-for-21 with a pair of home runs against Jackson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies.

Key betting note: Pittsburgh is 9-2 in starter Charlie Morton's last 11 outings against teams with losing records.

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-137, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: The Reds are 16-5 in right-hander Homer Bailey's previous 21 Tuesday starts.

Hot batting stat: Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter has dominated Bailey, going 11-for-19 lifetime against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing from left to right field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 6-1-1 in Bailey's last eight starts as an underdog.

Interleague

Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies (-120, 10)

Cold pitching stat: White Sox lefty Jose Quintana was roughed up for five runs over six innings in his first start of 2014.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Chicago roster are a combined 2-for-16 against Colorado starter Franklin Morales.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under clear skies with wind blowing from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: White Sox are 2-9 in their last 11 interleague road games.

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers (115, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Detroit is 9-2 in right-hander Max Scherzer's last 11 starts as a road favorite.

Cold batting stat: Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez has just three hits in 17 lifetime at-bats versus Scherzer.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with clear skies.

Key betting note: Under is 14-3 in the Tigers' last 17 games as a road favorite.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 8:20 p.m. ET Monday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Tuesday's American League games:

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-142, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Yankees right-hander Ivan Nova was 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA and two complete games against Baltimore last season.

Hot batting stat: Orioles slugger Chris Davis is batting .348 with three homers in 23 at-bats against Nova.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing out to center field at 14 mph.

Key betting note: Orioles are 8-2 in starter Wei-Yin Chen's last 10 Tuesday outings.

Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox (-139, 9.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rangers starter Martin Perez was 7-2 with a 3.84 ERA in 11 road starts in 2013.

Hot batting stat: Texas third baseman Adrian Beltre batted a scorching .524 (11-for-21) versus the Red Sox a season ago.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing out to center field at 15 mph.

Key betting note: Over is 15-5-1 in Boston starter Felix Doubront's last 21 outings as a home favorite.

Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays (-168, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Blue Jays left-hander Mark Buehrle tossed 8 2/3 shutout innings to earn the win in his first start of the season.

Cold batting stat: Houston second baseman Jose Altuve is just 1-for-8 in his career against Buehrle.

Weather: N/A

Key betting note: Under is 22-4-1 in Buehrle's last 27 starts.

Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals (100, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Rays right-hander Chris Archer won his season debut, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out seven over six innings.

Cold batting stat: Tampa Bay outfielder Wil Myers was hitless in four at-bats last season against Kansas City - the team that drafted him in 2009.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under clear skies with wind blowing in from left field at 10 mph and tapering off.

Key betting note: Under is 4-0 in Archer's last four starts against the American League Central.

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (-125, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Mariners left-hander James Paxton struck out nine over seven dominant innings to win his first start of 2014.

Cold batting stat: Seattle second baseman Robinson Cano is 1-for-7 lifetime versus Angels starter Hector Santiago.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with rain in the forecast and wind blowing out to center field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: Angels are 10-1 in their last 11 series-opening games.

Interleague

San Diego Padres at Cleveland Indians (OFF)

Cold pitching stat: The Indians as a team have issued 30 walks through 53 innings - the worst ratio in the majors.

Hot/Cold batting stat: Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera batted .313 in 67 interleague at-bats a season ago.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with a 58 percent chance of rain and wind blowing from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Padres are 23-47 in their last 70 interleague games as an underdog.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 7:45 p.m. ET Monday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

This week's best NBA spot bet opportunites
Steve Merril

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Steve Merril points out the best spot bet opportunities on the NBA schedule this week.

Letdown spot

Miami has a tough schedule this week that includes four games against playoff-caliber teams. The Heat open things at home on Tuesday night against Brooklyn, and then travel for a game on Wednesday night in Memphis. Their showdown game against Indiana comes on Friday night before concluding the week in Atlanta on Saturday.

The Heat will be looking to avenge an 84-83 loss to the Pacers on Friday night. If Miami is successful in doing so, then their game the very next night in Atlanta will be a certified letdown spot. Miami will also be playing their fourth game in five nights, so their game against the Hawks also comes in a difficult scheduling spot.

Look-ahead spot

The San Antonio Spurs have three games this week with two on the road and one at home. The Spurs will play in Minnesota on Tuesday night and in Dallas on Thursday. San Antonio then returns home to host Phoenix on Friday night.

San Antonio beat both the Timberwolves and Mavericks the last time they played, but they got blown out by 21 points (106-85) in Phoenix. San Antonio only has two losses over their last 25 games coming into Tuesday’s game, and the rematch game versus the Suns is one the Spurs have circled. San Antonio will be looking to atone for that loss to Phoenix, so they may lack focus the night before in Dallas.

Schedule spot

The Houston Rockets will play four games this week with three of those games on the road. They open the week on Tuesday night in Los Angeles against the Lakers, and then play the next night in Denver. The Rockets play in Minnesota on Friday night before finishing the week at home on Saturday night against New Orleans.

Houston’s trouble spot comes in that Saturday night home game versus the Pelicans. The Rockets will be playing on a back-to-back set and it will also be their third game in four nights and their fourth game in five nights overall. Houston will likely go thru the motions against New Orleans on Saturday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Nets at Heat

Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat

The Brooklyn Nets have spent the last few months proving they belong among the elite teams in the Eastern Conference. The Nets will get a chance to make their case once again when they visit the Miami Heat on Tuesday. Brooklyn won each of the first three meetings with the Heat and owns a 32-13 record in 2014 while East-leading Miami is 29-16 in that span with a pair of losses to the Nets.

The Heat appear to have recovered completely from their rough stretch in March and tried to damage the New York Knicks’ playoff dreams with a 102-91 home victory on Sunday. Miami is a game up on the Indiana Pacers for the top spot in the East - two games clear in the loss column - and will get Indiana at home on Friday after a tough back-to-back against Brooklyn and at Memphis. The Nets are still clinging to the hope that they can catch Toronto for the top spot in the Atlantic Division and homecourt advantage in the first round. They sit 2 1/2 games back in that race with six left.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, Sun Sports (Miami)

LINE HISTORY: Suggested lines out of Las Vegas have the Heat as 6.5-point home faves with a total of 196.

INJURY REPORT: Heat - G Dwyane Wade (Questionable, hamstring), C Greg Oden (Questionable, back), F Chris Andersen (Questionable, back). Nets - F Kevin Garnett (Out, back)

WHY BET THE NETS (42-34 SU, 41-35 ATS, 38-34-4 O/U): Brooklyn got Kevin Garnett (back spasms) back from a 19-game absence on Sunday and the veteran worked his way into game action with 10 points and four rebounds in 13 minutes during a 105-101 win over the Philadelphia 76ers. Garnett is not expected to play on Tuesday but should be back for the second half of the Florida trip at Orlando on Wednesday and is following a strict plan to get back in game shape for the postseason. “Obviously, I’m not where I want to be, but I felt good, I felt strong,” Garnett told reporters. “It’s been a journey to get back to this point, so I’m just trying to contribute at this point.”

WHY BET THE HEAT (53-23 SU, 36-38-2 ATS, 41-35 O/U): Miami is hoping to get one of its own stars healthy for the playoffs in Dwyane Wade, who has missed the last six games with a hamstring injury. The Heat are 5-1 in that span, and LeBron James is carrying the load by putting up at least 32 points in three of the last four games. The superstar put up 38 points in Sunday’s 102-91 triumph. Miami’s best work lately has come on the defensive end, where they have held opponents to an average of 79.2 points in the last five victories.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Miami.
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference.

COVERS CONSENSUS: N/A

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Hawks won three of their last four games.
-- Spurs won 20 of last 21 games, covered five of last six. Minnesota won three of its last four home games.
-- Nets/Heat both won five of their last six games.
-- Mavericks won five of their last seven games.
-- Rockets won seven of last ten games, covered one of last five.

Cold Teams
-- Pistons lost five of their last seven games.
-- Jazz lost six of their last seven games.
-- Utah lost six of last seven games (0-3-1 vs spread last four). Thunder lost last three road games, by 9-7-4 points.
-- Lakers lost six of their last seven games.

Series records
-- Hawks won nine of last 12 games with Detroit.
-- Spurs won five of last seven games with Minnesota.
-- Nets are 3-0 vs Miami this year, with two wins by a point.
-- Mavericks won their last four games with Utah.
-- Thunder won last nine games with Sacramento (2-4-1 vs spread in last seven meetings).
-- Lakers lost six of last nine games with Houston.

Totals
-- Last five Detroit games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten San Antonio games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Miami games stayed under.
-- Seven of last ten Dallas games went over total.
-- Last five King-Thunder games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Houston games went over total; four of last five Laker games stayed under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Red Wings won four of their last five games.
-- Senators won four of their last six games.
-- Carolina won three of its last four road games.
-- Bruins won 16 of their last 19 games. Minnesota won four of last five.
-- Predators won four of their last five games. Dallas won six of its last nine.
-- Avalanche won six of their last seven games. Edmonton won last two games, 3-2ot/4-2.


Cold teams
-- Sabres lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Islanders lost last two games, scoring three goals.
-- Rangers lost last two games, both by 3-2 scores.
-- Columbus is 0-6 in game following its last six wins. Coyotes lost their last four games, outscored 12-4.
-- Maple Leafs lost eight of their last ten games. Tampa Bay lost three of last four.
-- Flyers lost six of their last eight games; Florida lost eight of last ten.
-- Blues lost last two games, 4-0/4-2. Washington lost five of its last six games.


Totals
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Detroit games.
-- Three of last four Ottawa games stayed under.
-- Last six Carolina games stayed under total.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Phoenix games.
-- Five of last seven Toronto games went over total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Philly-Florida games.
-- Last three St Louis home games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Boston games went over total.
-- Five of last six Nashville games went over total.
-- Last six Colorado games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Red Wings won their last seven games with Buffalo.
-- Islanders won three of last four games with Ottawa.
-- Rangers won ten of last eleven games with Carolina.
-- Coyotes lost their last four visits to Columbus.
-- Lightning lost seven of last ten games with Toronto.
-- Flyers lost three of their last four games with Florida.
-- Blues lost three of last four games with Washington.
-- Bruins lost last two games with Minnesota, 3-1/2-0.
-- Predators won six of last nine games with Dallas.
-- Oilers won four of last five games with Colorado.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Lohse is 2-2, 2.10 in his last four starts.
-- Hudson is 5-0, 2.70 in his last five starts.
-- GGonzalez is 2-1, 2.37 in his last three starts.
-- Harang is 1-0, 1.45 in his last three starts.
-- Morton is 0-1, 1.74 in his last five starts.
-- Lynn is 4-2, 2.86 in his last six starts.

-- Kuroda is 2-1, 1.66 in his last three starts.
-- Buehrle is 2-1, 2.00 in last three starts. Oberholtzer has 3.08 RA in his last six starts but only one win; Astros scored total of ten runs in the six games.
-- Archer is 2-0, 3.28 in his last five starts.
-- Paxton is 4-0, 1.45 in five MLB starts.

-- Scherzer is 3-1, 1.53 in his last five starts. Haren is 3-1, 1.45 in his last five.


Cold pitchers
-- Kendrick is 0-3, 6.29 in his last six starts.
-- Cahill is 0-2, 5.17 in his last three starts.
-- Alvarez is 1-3, 4.50 in his last four starts.
-- Colon is 0-2, 4.50 in his last couple starts.
-- Jackson is 0-3, 6.50 in his last four starts.
-- Bailey is 0-3, 7.20 in his last three starts.

-- WChen is 0-1, 5.60 in his last five starts.
-- Perez is 1-3, 4.11 in his last six starts. Doubront has a 6.86 RA in his last four starts.
-- Ventura is 0-1, 3.52 in three MLB starts.
-- Santiago is 0-3, 6.00 in his last five starts.

-- Ross is 0-2, 5.40 in his last five starts. Kluber is 1-1, 11.42 in his last two.
-- Quintana is 0-1, 6.23 in his last couple starts. Morales has made 26 starts in eight MLB seasons; he allowed three runs in 5.1 IP in his first '14 start.
--

Totals
-- Six of last eight Arizona games went over total.
-- Four of last five Alvarez starts stayed under.
-- Five of six Atlanta games stayed under total.
-- Five of Cubs' first six games stayed under total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five St Louis games.
-- Five of six Milwaukee games stayed under.

-- Five of seven Baltimore games stayed under.
-- Six of seven Boston games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Houston games went over.
-- Four of last five Kansas City games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Angel games went over total.

-- Five of six San Diego games stayed under total; last four Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Last three Dodger games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Colorado games this season.

Hot teams
-- Giants won five of their first seven games.
-- Marlins won five of their first seven games.
-- Atlanta won four of its last five games.
-- Milwaukee won its last three games.

-- Bronx won four of its last five games.
-- Angels won three of their last four games.

-- Detroit won four of its first five games. Dodgers won six of first nine.
-- Rockies won three of their last four games.

Cold teams
-- Arizona lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Reds lost four of their last five games.

-- Orioles lost five of their last six games.
-- Astros lost four of their last five games.
-- Red Sox/Rangers both lost three of their last four games.

-- San Diego lost four of its last five games.
-- White Sox lost four of their last five games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

Texas at Boston

The Rangers (3-4) look to bounce back from last night's 5-1 loss to Boston (3-4) in the opener of the series and come into tonight's contest with an 8-0 record in Martin Perez' last 8 starts against a team with a losing record. Texas is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, APRIL 8 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Arizona at San Francisco (4:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 15.590; San Francisco (Hudson) 14.545 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+135); Over

Game 903-904: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 15.347; Washington (Gonzalez) 16.901 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Washington (-185); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-185); Under

Game 905-906: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Colon) 15.452; Atlanta (Harang) 14.523 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Over

Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.775; Cubs (Jackson) 14.115 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-130); No Total Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-130); N/A

Game 909-910: Cincinnati at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.545; St. Louis (Lynn) 14.610 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+120); Over

Game 911-912: Baltimore at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 15.444; NY Yankees (Nova) 17.049 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under

Game 913-914: Texas at Boston (6:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Perez) 16.254; Boston (Doubront) 15.149 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10 1/2 Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Over

Game 915-916: Houston at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oberholtzer) 12.701; Toronto (Buehrle) 14.698 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Toronto (-170); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-170); Under

Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 16.433; Kansas City (Ventura) 14.996 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under

Game 919-920: LA Angels at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santiago) 15.798; Seattle (Paxton) 14.609 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110); Over

Game 921-922: San Diego at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 13.833; Cleveland (Kluber) 15.229 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-145); Over

Game 923-924: Chicago White Sox at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Qunitana) 14.929; Colorado (Morales) 13.908 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 11 Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 10 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+105); Over

Game 925-926: Detroit at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 17.026; LA Dodgers (Haren) 15.508 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Under

Game 927-928: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 16.818; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 14.511 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-105); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NHL Picks

Nashville at Dallas

The Predators head to Dallas tonight carrying a 4-1 record in their last 5 road games. Nashville is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Predators favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+150). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, APRIL 8 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Phoenix at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.794; Columbus 10.609 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-145); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-145); Under

Game 53-54: Detroit at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.660; Buffalo 9.959 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-200); 5 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Over

Game 55-56: Ottawa at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.627; NY Islanders 10.541 Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-120); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-120); Over

Game 57-58: Carolina at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 12.605; NY Rangers 11.603 Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-210); 5 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+175); Under

Game 59-60: Toronto at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.036; Tampa Bay 10.119 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-180); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+160); Over

Game 61-62: Philadelphia at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.936; Florida 9.630 Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-170); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-170); Under

Game 63-64: Boston at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.841; Minnesota 11.327 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-130); 5 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Over

Game 65-66: Washington at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.598; St. Louis 10.928 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-220); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+180); Under

Game 67-68: Nashville at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.463; Dallas 11.625 Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-170); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+150); Under

Game 69-70: Colorado at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.503; Edmonton 9.931 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-150); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play TUES: Nationals w/ Gonzalez

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Tuesday

Reds/Cards over 7.5

Rangers +120

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, APRIL 8th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Tuesday, 4/8/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
______________________________________

Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Lohse is 2-2, 2.10 in his last four starts.
-- Hudson is 5-0, 2.70 in his last five starts.
-- GGonzalez is 2-1, 2.37 in his last three starts.
-- Harang is 1-0, 1.45 in his last three starts.
-- Morton is 0-1, 1.74 in his last five starts.
-- Lynn is 4-2, 2.86 in his last six starts.

-- Kuroda is 2-1, 1.66 in his last three starts.
-- Buehrle is 2-1, 2.00 in last three starts. Oberholtzer has 3.08 RA in his last six starts but only one win; Astros scored total of ten runs in the six games.
-- Archer is 2-0, 3.28 in his last five starts.
-- Paxton is 4-0, 1.45 in five MLB starts.

-- Scherzer is 3-1, 1.53 in his last five starts. Haren is 3-1, 1.45 in his last five.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Kendrick is 0-3, 6.29 in his last six starts.
-- Cahill is 0-2, 5.17 in his last three starts.
-- Alvarez is 1-3, 4.50 in his last four starts.
-- Colon is 0-2, 4.50 in his last couple starts.
-- Jackson is 0-3, 6.50 in his last four starts.
-- Bailey is 0-3, 7.20 in his last three starts.

-- WChen is 0-1, 5.60 in his last five starts.
-- Perez is 1-3, 4.11 in his last six starts. Doubront has a 6.86 RA in his last four starts.
-- Ventura is 0-1, 3.52 in three MLB starts.
-- Santiago is 0-3, 6.00 in his last five starts.

-- Ross is 0-2, 5.40 in his last five starts. Kluber is 1-1, 11.42 in his last two.
-- Quintana is 0-1, 6.23 in his last couple starts. Morales has made 26 starts in eight MLB seasons; he allowed three runs in 5.1 IP in his first '14 start.

•Totals
-- Six of last eight Arizona games went over total.
-- Four of last five Alvarez starts stayed under.
-- Five of six Atlanta games stayed under total.
-- Five of Cubs' first six games stayed under total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five St Louis games.
-- Five of six Milwaukee games stayed under.

-- Five of seven Baltimore games stayed under.
-- Six of seven Boston games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Houston games went over.
-- Four of last five Kansas City games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Angel games went over total.

-- Five of six San Diego games stayed under total; last four Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Last three Dodger games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Colorado games this season.

•Hot Teams
-- Giants won five of their first seven games.
-- Marlins won five of their first seven games.
-- Atlanta won four of its last five games.
-- Milwaukee won its last three games.

-- Yankees won four of its last five games.
-- Angels won three of their last four games.

-- Detroit won four of its first five games. Dodgers won six of first nine.
-- Rockies won three of their last four games.

•Cold Teams
-- Arizona lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Reds lost four of their last five games.

-- Orioles lost five of their last six games.
-- Astros lost four of their last five games.
-- Red Sox/Rangers both lost three of their last four games.

-- San Diego lost four of its last five games.
-- White Sox lost four of their last five games.

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
•COLORADO is 4-23 (-23.3 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 3.3, OPPONENT 5.8.

•TEXAS is 23-5 UNDER (+17.5 Units) versus terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS 3.3, OPPONENT 2.8.

•NY METS are 36-11 (+23.2 Units) against the run line in road games versus a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY METS 4.7, OPPONENT 3.4.

•DAN HAREN is 4-14 (-14.2 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAREN 2.9, OPPONENT 4.4.

•KYLE LOHSE is 11-1 UNDER (+10.0 Units) versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOHSE 2.7, OPPONENT 2.8.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (TEXAS) - very bad American League offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base.
(39-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.2%, +33.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (41-13 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2, money line price: +125
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 3.2 (Average run differential = +1.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 28 (51.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-8, +23.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (56-34, +33.3 units).
___________________________________________

 

[spmurph]

Steve's Golf Picks

*Note - I am getting this out Monday night as many people have expressed that they are entering Masters pools and wanted the preview and picks earlier.


Welcome to Masters Week everyone! This week we have the first major of the year and arguably the most prestigious. 96 of the world's best will be hoping Adam Scott puts a green jacket on them to cap off a spectacular week. Adam on the other hand, will be hoping to retain the green jacket and capture his 2nd Masters title.


The first ever Masters champion was Horton Smith in 1934. Since that inaugural win, the mystique and excitement surrounding the Masters has grown with each year. Champions like Sam Snead, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus and Gary Player have all won the green jacket multiple times. The past twelve years we have seen we have seen two men dominate the Masters, Tiger and Phil. The past three Champions however have been first time major Champions.


We have correctly selected four of the past five Masters Champions (only one we missed was Charl Schwartzel) (Includes Angel Cabrera at 125 to 1 in 2009). The past two years it has been won in a playoff, which has made it extra thrilling. I absolutely love this tournament and look forward to another Green Jacket.


ABOUT AUGUSTA


Augusta is a Par 72, 7435-yard course, which demands players are at the top of their game. The course is one of the most stunningly beautiful places in the entire world (It actually almost looks fake it's so perfect). Since the course has been lengthened, people have said that it has turned into a bombers course. Zach Johnson however used the approach of laying up on every Par 5 in the 2007 Masters and took the Championship.


My favorite hole on the course is the 170 yard Par 3 16th; a hole that has seen its fair share of excitement. The most famous shot on the 16th occurred in the 2005 Masters when Tiger hit a chip shot witnessed around the world. Woods chipped it to the upper shelf of the green (past the hole) and watched as the ball made a U-Turn and headed back towards the hole. The ball rested on the edge of the cup for what seemed like an eternity, only to roll in for an amazing birdie. If you are looking to see a hole in one at the Masters, the 16th is a great place to park your seat. Look for the 15th (reachable Par5) and the 16th to make a difference come Sunday.


The 11th Hole I feel is the most difficult hole on the course, and the beginning to Amen corner. A 505-yard, tree lined Par 4, forces players to be very accurate off the tee. A pond guards the left side of the green and you will see many shots this week come up short and to the right (in a large swale). Look for plenty of bogeys this week on number 11.





PLAYERS FOR THE 2014 MASTERS


97 players have the opportunity to win the Masters at the start of the week (Though I would not put my money on Ben Crenshaw, even if he is paying out 5000/1). The Masters will have a slew of players making their first appearance at the storied event. Only one player in the last 77 years has won the event when competing for his first time (Fuzzy Zoeller 1979). Players such as Stephen Gallacher, Patrick Reed, and Harris English will all be trying to become the first man since Fuzzy to achieve such a feat.


Large swarms of people will be following players like Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson and for good reason. The fact that Tiger is not playing will unfortunately be a large part of the storyline, but plenty of amazing golfers will be playing. People are very intrigued by the up and coming stars golf has produced over the past few seasons, and I feel that will be most noteworthy at the end of the week.


Finally, will this be the year Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia or Luke Donald wins his first major. The three best players in the world who have not won a major have all enjoyed previous success here at Augusta. Sergio is the 6th ranked player, Luke is the 27th ranked player in the world, and Lee has fallen recently to 37th. The fact that none of these men have won a major, speaks volumes to the difficulty of the task.





STEVES SIX PACK


We go with a combination of previous success here mixed with some young players playing well. I also really like one long shot who's game suits Augusta perfectly.


HUNTER MAHAN 50/1 - Hunter has always been extremely criticized for his short game and that was never more evident than in the 2010 Ryder Cup when he flubbed a chip in the final match. This match decided the Ryder Cup and it really hurt Hunter, as he felt responsible (which is ridiculous but you can understand his point of view). After that Hunter focused all his attention on improving his game around the greens, and it worked. Hunter's last win came at the 2012 Shell Houston Open, but he is trending towards another one.


Mahan has posted Top 10's in 50% of his starts this season. He is gearing his game towards his first major and the Masters is the perfect place for that to happen. In the past five seasons at Augusta he has three finishes inside the Top 12. I find it very surprising that people are not discussing Hunter as a possible winner this week. Now that his short game is in a good place, I feel that he is a perfect fit to be wearing the Green jacket at weeks end. Mahan is one of the best drivers of the golf ball on Tour as he ranks 14th in Total driving. If you put yourself in a good position off the tee at Augusta it is a massive advantage. Hunter will utilize this great driving and be in contention for his first major on Sunday.


CHARL SCHWARTZEL 38/1 - Charl could not ask for a more perfect fit than Augusta. He displayed how much he loves this course in 2011 when he birdied the final four holes to finish two shots clear of Jason Day and Adam Scott. Charl will be confident stepping on the first tee this week, as he played well at his tune up last week (Shell Houston Open). He was one of the players out there trying to get his game ready for the Masters, and you will see this week his game looks great.


Charl currently sits 6th on the Race to Dubai rankings and has looked on point all season. He is one of the best drivers of the golf ball combining extreme length with good accuracy. Charl is averaging over 307 yards off the tee on the European Tour, and this helps him hit over 70% of his Greens in Regulation. A key to Augusta is taking advantage of your Par 5's and holding even on your Par 3's and 4's. Charl played the Par 5's 9 under in 2011 and I really expect him to equal that mark or possibly improve upon it. South African's have been near the top of Major leaderboards recently, and Charl will once again have that flag in contention at Augusta.


STEPHEN GALLACHER 500/1 - I love this selection. Firstly, these odds are outrageous (also expect them to drop so get this in quickly - but still great value at 200/1+). Gallacher is the 38th ranked player in the world, and will improve that this week. He beat the worlds best down the stretch just over two months ago at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic (Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy were actually his partners for the first two rounds). This will be his first appearance at the Masters but that will not phase the 40 year old Scot.


Stephen averages just under 300 yards off the tee and hits 73% of his Greens in Regulation. He is coming off a T6 finish at the Cadillac Championship in his last start on United States soil. Look for him to tee the ball up with confidence and have people talking this week at Augusta. Gallacher plays well on difficult courses and I really feel he possess the ability to not let the big moment get to him. Obviously the majors are a different hurdle, but at 40 years old Stephen is not a young kid. It has been a slew of first time major winners over the past 4 years and I feel Stephen could be a diamond in the rough this week.


PATRICK REED 65/1 - A man winning the Masters wearing red on Sunday in 2014, I can see it happening. A few months ago everyone would have thought that meant Tiger Woods, but instead it will be Patrick Reed. Reed is one of the hottest players on the planet in 2014, and picked up a win at his second WGC event just over a month ago ( Cadillac Championship ). Much was made after this victory when Patrick stated that he was a top 5 talent in the world.


Reed is confident in himself and I appreciate that. I have no problem with him saying that he is a top 5 player because you must have that mindset to actually be one. Patrick is going to prove to people this week that he was correct in stating that to the world. Reed showed signs of nervousness down the stretch off the tee but his short game was outstanding. Getting up and down when the tournament is on the line is something very few can do, and Reed proved he could. Now watch him in his first Major appearance dawn his red shirt on Sunday and have Adam Scott put a green jacket on him at weeks end.


HARRIS ENGLISH 70/1- This Georgia man will tee it up in the Masters for the first time. Harris was born, attend school, and currently resides in Georgia, making this a home game for him. He will have plenty of support but with the way he has been playing in 2014, probably won't even need it. Harris has six Top 10's in his thirteen starts of 2014. One of those Top 10's was his second PGA Tour victory, which took place at The OHL Classic of Mayakoba.


English has statistics that most players dream of to start his 2014 season. He is first on Tour for Greens in Regulation, hitting over 73%. Harris ranks 21st for Total Driving and 1st in Scoring Average (actual). English ranks first in Par 4 Performance and 2nd in Par 5 Performance. He is going to be a mainstay atop the PGA Tour for many years to come because he is one of the most talented players in the world. His combination of length off the tee and great short game is very rare, and it will be the reason Harris is contending this week at Augusta.


LEE WESTWOOD 48/1 - The 40 year old is known for his inability to win a Major Championship, but that could change at this Masters. Over Lee's past 22 major Championship's he has 11 Top 10 finishes. Lee has finished inside the Top 11 at The Masters in five of his past six starts at Augusta. He hits the ball a long ways off the tee, and his iron play is some of the best in the world. Lee has always struggled with his chipping and putting, two aspects that have hindered him from holding many Major Championships.


Watch Westwood this week though and you will be impressed at the work he has put into the faults in his golf game. His putting stroke seems much more natural and he has confidence with it. The key to Westwood's game this week will be not short siding himself. Missing the green in the wrong area at Augusta creates nearly impossible shots, something Lee has to avoid. I like the confidence Lee is exuding currently, and he enters on the heels of a T17 at The Shell Houston Open. Westwood has one goal in mind and that is to win a major Championship, a goal that very well could be achieved this week.





HEAD TO HEAD AND PROPS


Below are two props and two head to heads.


One Unit


HOLE IN ONE - We WILL SEE a hole in one in the 2014 Masters tournament. Harris English actually aced number 12 in a practice round on Sunday but you can expect one to happen on Number 16 (probably on Sunday). The pin is put in a funnel and all balls tend to kick of the right side of the green and roll directly towards the hole. This will be enjoyable for the player with the ace, the fans, and us.


** Odds are not currently up at 5dimes but are traditionally very close to even money **


One Unit


STEPHEN GALLACHER TOP 10 - 13 TO 1 - We will take Stephen to finish in the Top 10. I am shocked at the odds on Gallacher and will be very surprised if he doesn't play well this week. He is a very solid all around player and his game is suited for Augusta.


Two units


STEPHEN GALLACHER (-120) over Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano - I am not sure what is wrong with Gonzalo this season but he has been plagued with the inability to avoid at least one disastrous round in almost every tournament. In just 24 rounds on the PGA Tour he has carded 76 or higher seven times in 2014 ( Including an 83 at the Farmers Insurance Open). Gonzalo has played in the Masters twice and has finishes of T20 and 61st. In eight rounds at Augusta he has played over Par in seven of them. Stephen will be making his first start but is in great form and his game should suit the course beautifully.


Two Units


LEE WESTWOOD (-110) over Luke Donald - This match pits two players who both have enjoyed success at Augusta and desperately want a Major Championship. Lee has been much more successful as of late in the Masters and has the edge in this category. Luke just does not hit the ball accurately enough off the tee for how short of a hitter he is. Take Lee to cruise past he good friend Luke and win use this match up, and possibly a Green Jacket.


Enjoy the walk up Magnolia Lane to the years first Major everyone.


Steve

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NBA Picks

San Antonio at Minnesota

The Spurs travel to Minnesota tonight to face a Timberwolves team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record. San Antonio is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, APRIL 8 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Brooklyn at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 119.885; Miami 127.712 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 8; 193 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 6 1/2; 197 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-6 1/2); Over

Game 653-654: San Antonio at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 132.259; Minnesota 122.823 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9 1/2; 215 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 209 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6); Over

Game 655-656: Dallas at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.718; Utah 114.203 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 5 1/2; 194 Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 7 1/2; 199 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Utah (+7 1/2); Under

Game 657-658: Oklahoma City at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 123.339; Sacramento 118.109 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5; 208 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8 1/2; 203 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+8 1/2); Over

Game 659-660: Houston at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 122.104; LA Lakers 114.606 Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 7 1/2; 221 Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 10; 225 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+10); Under

Game 661-662: Detroit at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 109.581; Atlanta 114.531 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 5; 216 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 210 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+7); Over

 

[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
St. Louis Cardinals -135 over Cincy Reds
(System Record: 6-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 6-3

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Boston Bruins -125 over Minnesota Wild
(System Record: 87-4, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 87-71-1

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Utah Jazz +7.5 over Dallas Mavericks
(System Record: 72-8, lost last game)
Overall Record: 72-83-5

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
O.Higgins + Lanus UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Conmebol
(System Record: 547-20, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 547-473-80