Service Plays Tuesday 4/29/14

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 4/29/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Tuesday, 4/29/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_______________________________________________

NBA Playoff Journal (April 28)
There are a number of terrific storylines in the 2014 NBA playoffs. Let’s starts with the fact that both No. 1 seeds (Indiana and San Antonio) are struggling. The Pacers are tied with the 8th-seeded Hawks after four games, with Atlanta threatening to become the 2nd-worst team in NBA history to win a best-of-seven playoff series. The 1958-59 Minneapolis Lakers posted a .458 win percentage but still managed to make it to the NBA Finals (defeated the St Louis hawks before losing 4-0 to the Celtics in The Finals). Atlanta posted a .463 win percentage (38-44) in the regular season. As for the Spurs, after posting the NBA’s best regular season record of 62-20 (assuring the home court advantage in EVERY series), San Antonio has shot 50.0% and 54.3% the last two games against the Mavericks, only to lose both and find themselves down 2-1 heading in Monday’s game in Dallas.

We’ve also seen seven overtime games after 30 contests, with the Houston/Portland series accounting for THREE of them. Over the last three days, we saw the Bulls and Rockets rally to win Game #3 on the road, after losing both home games to open their respective series. Saturday saw Indiana get a rare win in Atlanta (just the Pacers’ THIRD since 2006), Vince Carter nail an improbable three-pointer at the buzzer to beat the Spurs by one point and the Thunder even their series with Memphis with an OT win in game #4, despite Durant and Westbrook each scoring only 15 points (Reggie Jackson scored a playoff-high 32!).

Sunday brought us the surprising Wizards going up 3-1 over the Bulls, the Blazers winning in OT to put the Rockets in an 1-3 hole and the Raptors blow all of a 17-point lead at Brooklyn but then down four points with 6:11 left in the game, go on to outscore the Nets 14-2 the rest of the way (Brooklyn went 0-6 from the floor with four TOs,) However, despite all that, the story which dominated the headlines all weekend was the “Donald Sterling tape.” I won’t weigh in (hasn’t there been plenty of that already?) but will note that the Warriors sure played one heck of a game on Sunday, led by Curry’s 33 points, routing the Clippers 118-97. Were/are the Clippers too distracted? We’ll find out Tuesday night at Staples Center.

From a betting perspective, the 2014 playoffs have been quite surprising as well. Home teams have rarely struggled this badly in the early going, as after 30 games, home teams are under .500 SU (14-16) and a ‘money-burning’ 10-17-3 ATS. Let me add that over bettors feel as if it’s Christmas, as the tally stands at 20 overs and just 10 unders plus “Zig-Zaggers,” who have been ‘kissing their sisters’ for years now, are suddenly all smiles, having gone 13-6-3 ATS, or plus-6.4 net games. Three more games are set for Monday night. TNT airs another doubleheader, Miami at Charlotte in the first game and San Antonio at Dallas to follow. The NBA Network gets Atlanta at Indiana.

The Heat have beaten the Bobcats 19 straight times (the last 18 coming since LBJ and Bosh joined Wade in South Beach), while the Bobcats are still looking for their franchise’s first playoff win (sit at 0-7). Miami is favored by eight points (total is 188). The Spurs own the overall No. 1 seed but a loss here and they are down 3-1. The scary thing is, Dirk is averaging only 15.0 PPG (first time he’s had three straight playoff games without reaching 20 since his first postseason back in 2001), yet the Mavs are up in the series. The Spurs are again the road favorite, laying four points with a total of 201 1/2. The other game is Atlanta at Indiana, with the Pacers favored by 6 1/2 points (total is 186).
_______________________________

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#507 WASHINGTON @ #508 CHICAGO
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, TNT, CSN Mid-Atlantic Washington, CSN Chicago - Line: Bulls -4.5, Total: 183.5) - The Washington Wizards are ready to wrap up their first-round Eastern Conference Series against the Chicago Bulls. The Wizards put together their best start-to-finish performance of the series in Game #4 to take a 3-1 lead and can close it out when they visit the Bulls for Game #5 on Tuesday. Washington was without Nene due to a one-game suspension in Game #4 but Trevor Ariza took on a bigger role in the offense to make up for the loss.

Ariza hit a pair of 3-pointers during a game-opening 14-0 run and the Wizards never trailed on Sunday. The veteran swingman finished with 30 points, the last two coming on a dunk late in the fourth quarter that thwarted Chicago’s last chance at a rally. “I think we’re smart enough as a group to understand that when one of your pieces goes down you have to find ways and will to win,” Ariza told reporters. “...Tonight was my night to take the scoring load.” Ariza’s big night helped make up for Chicago forward Taj Gibson going off for a career-high 32 points.

•ABOUT THE WIZARDS (47-39 SU, 46-39-1 ATS): Washington has not been to the Eastern Conference semifinals since the 2004-05 season but is making its way toward that goal with an offense that has relied on a different player in each of the three wins. Nene was the big factor in Game #1 by outplaying Bulls center Joakim Noah and Bradley Beal’s late-game heroics in Game #2 made the difference before Ariza took over on Sunday. Trevor Booker got the start in place of Nene in Game #4 and recorded eight points, nine rebounds and three blocks in 28 minutes. “I think it was a blessing in disguise, maybe the last (21 games) that (Nene) missed at the end of the year,” coach Randy Wittman said. “(Booker) started all those games.”

•ABOUT THE BULLS (49-37 SU, 42-43-1 ATS): Gibson went 13-of-16 from the field but the rest of the Chicago lineup was just 22-of-62 in Game #4. Mike Dunleavy, who was the hero of Game #3 in the Bulls’ lone win in the series with 35 points, was held to six points on 3-of-8 shooting in Game #4. “You can’t put it on any one guy,” coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters. “It’s our team, and readiness to play is me. They have to do their job, and they have to get out there and they have to execute. I have to get them ready and so that’s disappointing. It’s got to change or our season will be over.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Washington committed just six turnovers in Game #4 - the fewest the Bulls have forced all season.... Chicago G D.J. Augustin is shooting 32.3 percent in the series and was held to a series-low eight points in Game #4.... Beal is 9-of-16 from 3-point range in the last three games.... The Wizards are 31-17 versus the spread (64.5%) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last three seasons.... The Bulls are 8-22 against the spread (26.6%) in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the spread 547 times, while CHICAGO covered the spread 453 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO won the game straight up 562 times, while WASHINGTON won 415 times. In 1000 simulated games, 700 games went over the total, while 300 games went under the total. #EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the first half line 558 times, while CHICAGO covered the first half line 442 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 628 games went over first half total, while 372 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON is 42-35 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 41-36 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--45 of 77 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--CHICAGO is 38-36 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--39 of 77 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Wizards are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
--Wizards are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.

--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Chicago.

--Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--Over is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games following a S.U. win.

--Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 6-0 in Bulls last 6 games following a ATS loss.
--Over is 8-0 in Bulls last 8 Conference Quarterfinals games.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Over - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games.
(208-132 since 1996.) (61.2%, +62.8 units. Rating = 2*)

The average total posted in these games was: 185.5
The average score in these games was: Team 94, Opponent 94.1 (Total points scored = 188.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 143 (41.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (10-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-12).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (41-20).
_______________________________

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Western Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#509 MEMPHIS @ #510 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, NBATV, FSN Tennessee Memphis, FSN Oklahoma City - Line: Thunder -6, Total: 186.5) - There was a different star on the big stage to keep Oklahoma City from falling into a big hole and the Thunder look to take a 3-2 series lead when they host the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday. With Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook suffering through horrific shooting performances, backup guard Reggie Jackson stepped up as the premier option with a career-best 32 points in Saturday’s overtime win. Each of the last three games has gone into overtime.

Jackson’s exploits allowed Oklahoma City to regain homecourt advantage and keep the Thunder from needing to reel off three consecutive victories. The Grizzlies blew a five-point lead late in regulation of Game #4 – Jackson scored the final five of the fourth quarter for Oklahoma City – as poor free-throw shooting (13-of-23) and lack of killer instinct came back to haunt them. Memphis guard Tony Allen has taken on the task of guarding Durant and helped hound the league’s scoring champ to 5-of-21 shooting. Westbrook struggled his way to 6-of-24 from the field and is shooting 19.4 percent from 3-point range in the series.

•ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (52-34 SU, 38-44-4 ATS): Power forward Zach Randolph had his worst outing of the series with 11 points in Game #4 and is just 10-of-34 from the field over the past two games. His substandard play caused him to spend a lot of time on the bench in the second half of Saturday’s game and Memphis needs him to put on a much better display on Tuesday. Randolph is shooting just 36 percent from the field in the series despite averaging 18.3 points and he was one of the culprits of the Grizzlies’ poor free-throw shooting as he missed four of his five attempts.

•ABOUT THE THUNDER (61-25 SU, 44-39-3 ATS): Jackson was a non-factor over the first three games when he averaged five points on 3-of-19 shooting before going 11-of-16 in Game #4. Both Durant and Westbrook recognized they were struggling and acquiesced to the third-year pro, who single-handedly prevented Oklahoma City from losing in regulation. “I was seeing it in their eyes – they wanted me to keep going,” Jackson told reporters. “I was bringing it up and they weren’t stopping me. We lean on our two stars but their shots weren’t going.”

•PREGAME NOTES: This is the second time in NBA playoff history that three straight games went into overtime. The other was a 2009 first-round series between the Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics.... Memphis is 0-5 in its playoff history when it shoots less than 60 percent from the free-throw line.... Thunder G Derek Fisher has played in 244 playoff games, tied with Robert Horry for most in NBA history.... The Grizzlies are 57-37 versus the spread (60.6%) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.... Oklahoma City is 5-15 against the spread (25.0%) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS covered the spread 536 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 431 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 604 times, while MEMPHIS won 370 times. In 1000 simulated games, 809 games went over the total, while 191 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS covered the first half line 513 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 459 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 671 games went over first half total, while 289 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 45-37 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 54-29 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--49 of 83 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--OKLAHOMA CITY is 45-38 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--44 of 83 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Grizzlies are 8-3-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
--Grizzlies are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma City.

--Home team is 4-1-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in Oklahoma City.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Grizzlies are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.
--Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS L11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

--Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games.
--Thunder are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Under is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 Tuesday games.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Over - All teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points (MEMPHIS) - good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games, off a close home loss by 3 points or less.
(45-18 since 1996.) (71.4%, +25.2 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 93.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48, Opponent 48.4 (Total first half points scored = 96.4)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-3).
_______________________________

#511 GOLDEN STATE @ #512 LA CLIPPERS
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, TNT, CSN Bay Area Golden State, Prime Ticket Los Angeles - Line: Clippers -6, Total: 210)- The Los Angeles Clippers are trying to fight off the outside distractions and focus on Game #5 of their Western Conference playoff series against the Golden State Warriors. The Clippers will no doubt have to answer more questions about the behavior of owner Donald Sterling before hosting the Warriors in Game #5 on Tuesday. Sterling’s alleged racist comments came out prior to Game #4 and the team engaged in a silent protest prior to the contest and throughout.

The NBA is expected to hand down some sort of punishment to Sterling prior to Game #5, which will mark the first home game since a tape allegedly of Sterling making racist comments came out over the weekend. Los Angeles’ players wore their warmups inside out prior to Game #4 and all wore black socks and black wristbands, but their play was definitely off. The Clippers controlled Games #2 and #3 to take a lead in the series but the Warriors dominated Game #4 and ended up with a 118-97 win behind Stephen Curry’s 33 points to even the series at two games apiece.

•ABOUT THE WARRIORS (53-33 SU, 44-39-3 ATS): The Clippers hounded Curry in the first two games and most of the third before the All-Star finally started to get hot with three 3-pointers in the fourth quarter of Game #3. Curry carried that form over to the first quarter of Game #4 and buried five 3-pointers in the period as Golden State grabbed an early lead and never looked back. “We tried to come out with a sense of urgency,” Curry told reporters. “That’s been a big problem in the first three games, as a team we haven’t started games off well.... I was looking for any space I could get.” The Warriors moved forward Draymond Green into the starting lineup to provide more matchup problems and will keep the same unit moving forward.

•ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (59-27 SU, 47-38-1 ATS): Los Angeles reserve guard Jamal Crawford appeared to be the team’s only aggressive offensive player for long stretches in Game #4. The team seemed sluggish from the start and ended up committing 19 turnovers. “That’s my fault, it really is,” coach Doc Rivers told reporters of his team’s early struggles. “I gotta do a better job. Whatever the distractions, whatever, I gotta do a better job. I didn’t do my job (Sunday). I take that personally.” Clippers center DeAndre Jordan was a dominant force in the first three games with five blocks in each but was much less of a factor against Golden State’s smaller lineup in Game #4.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Warriors’ 27 fast-break points in Game #4 were the most allowed by the Clippers this season.... Golden State hit 15 3-pointers in Game #4, with Curry (seven) and Klay Thompson combining for 10.... Los Angeles F Blake Griffin is shooting 64.3 percent in the last three games.... The Warriors are 15-5 versus the spread (75.0%) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Clippers are 7-17 against the spread (29.1%) versus good shooting teams - making more than 46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the spread 485 times, while LA CLIPPERS covered the spread 477 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS won the game straight up 627 times, while GOLDEN STATE won 357 times. In 1000 simulated games, 559 games went under the total, while 418 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the first half line 492 times, while LA CLIPPERS covered the first half line 470 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 553 games went under first half total, while 416 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LA CLIPPERS is 36-36 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--LA CLIPPERS is 41-34 straight up against GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--37 of 73 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--GOLDEN STATE is 39-35 versus the first half line when playing against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--43 of 73 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.
--Warriors are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 road games.
--Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

--Clippers are 4-0 ATS L4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
--Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Over is 4-0 in Clippers L4 when their opponent scored 100 points or more LG.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog.
(28-6 since 1996.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 215.2
The average score in these games was: Team 102.4, Opponent 107.2 (Total points scored = 209.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (55.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
_______________________________

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Grizzlies at Thunder

Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder (-6, 186.5)

Series tied 2-2.

There was a different star on the big stage to keep Oklahoma City from falling into a big hole and the Thunder look to take a 3-2 series lead when they host the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday. With Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook suffering through horrific shooting performances, backup guard Reggie Jackson stepped up as the premier option with a career-best 32 points in Saturday’s overtime win. Each of the last three games has gone into overtime.

Jackson’s exploits allowed Oklahoma City to regain homecourt advantage and keep the Thunder from needing to reel off three consecutive victories. The Grizzlies blew a five-point lead late in regulation of Game 4 – Jackson scored the final five of the fourth quarter for Oklahoma City – as poor free-throw shooting (13-of-23) and lack of killer instinct came back to haunt them. Memphis guard Tony Allen has taken on the task of guarding Durant and helped hound the league’s scoring champ to 5-of-21 shooting. Westbrook struggled his way to 6-of-24 from the field and is shooting 19.4 percent from 3-point range in the series.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, NBATV, FSN Tennessee (Memphis), FSN Oklahoma (Oklahoma City)

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma City opened as high as -6.5 but has been bet down half a point. The total opened 187 and early action trimmed it to 186.5.

INJURY REPORT: Memphis - N. Calathes (Out - Suspension)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Thunder cruised to a blowout victory in Game 1 of this series, but it's evolved into a war since. I don't think the Grizzlies will be short on confidence in Game 5, even after letting a terrific opportunity to take full control of the series slip away in overtime on Saturday night. With that being said, this is obviously the pivotal game of this series and I don't believe we're being asked to lay an unreasonable price with the Thunder, who have to realize the importance of grabbing this one before heading to Memphis for Game 6. In fact, given Oklahoma City's long-term dominance at home, I believe this line is a little short at -6. No doubt the betting majority will agree, perhaps pushing this number up closer to tipoff." - Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Oklahoma City opened -6 and still remains at that number with us. Looks like we may have a fairly big decision on game as 77 percent of the cash on Grizzlies and 73 percent of bets backing them as well. Memphis has gone 2-0-1 ATS in last three games in series after OKC comfortably covered in Game 1." - Mike Perry, Sportsbook.ag.

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Power forward Zach Randolph had his worst outing of the series with 11 points in Game 4 and is just 10-of-34 from the field over the past two games. His substandard play caused him to spend a lot of time on the bench in the second half of Saturday’s game and Memphis needs him to put on a much better display on Tuesday. Randolph is shooting just 36 percent from the field in the series despite averaging 18.3 points and he was one of the culprits of the Grizzlies’ poor free-throw shooting as he missed four of his five attempts.

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Jackson was a non-factor over the first three games when he averaged five points on 3-of-19 shooting before going 11-of-16 in Game 4. Both Durant and Westbrook recognized they were struggling and acquiesced to the third-year pro, who single-handedly prevented Oklahoma City from losing in regulation. “I was seeing it in their eyes – they wanted me to keep going,” Jackson told reporters. “I was bringing it up and they weren’t stopping me. We lean on our two stars but their shots weren’t going.”

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-1-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Grizzlies are 8-3-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
* Over is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Grizzlies are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma City.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 51 percent of bets are on Memphis +6 while 71 percent are on Over 186.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Weekend Series – Five Key Takeaways
By DAVID MALINSKY

It is time once again to break down the weekend MLB results from Point Blank range, examining key emerging issues that can have you a step ahead of the game in the days ahead.

St. Louis – Is this the offense that is?

It is showdown time in the NL Central when the Cardinals host the Brewers this week, and the fact that it is a #1 vs. #2 speaks volumes about the St. Louis pitching – it is not easy to open up 14-12 when the offense has scored one run or less 10 times. But while it has been an underwhelming performance by the bats, the key is to understand that it has not been that big of a crash.

The Cardinals got to the World Series last year by leading the NL in runs, quite an achievement in the first post-Pujols season. Now they are #14. But while the slash line dropping from .269/.332/.401 to .240/.308/.352 is significant, it does not explain how dramatic drop in runs has been. They led the NL in 2013 despite being #13 in HR’s, and they are #14 now, so it also has not been about power. Instead it is about just how much an outlier 2013 was in one key category that simply will not repeat.

St. Louis hit an astonishing .330 with runners in scoring position last year, far and away the best of the modern era – since 1950 no other team has been within 15 points of that. Is RISP a skill? The historical abstracts for both players and teams say no; that category tends to fall in line with overall abilities more than as a particular skill set. A team that only batted .269 overall has to hit a roulette spin for that to become .330 with RISP. And in 2013 the Cardinals were also #2 in the NL with a .314 BABIP, which has regressed to a .287 this time around. This is not an offense in a slump, but rather one that far exceeded their true abilities last year, and the current level may simply be what they are.

Royals – Yordano Ventura is a “Pitcher”

Value may be elusive quickly with Ventura – when a guy can hit 100 mph on the radar guns and begins to win games, folks take notice. But there is also some classifying work to be done, so that you can have him filed properly. While that high heat and strikeout count may create the image of a “thrower”, his dominant outing at Baltimore on Friday night was a textbook example of being a “pitcher”.

Ventura dispatched the Orioles without a run over eight frames, dueling at 14.1 PPI. That was the fifth time in seven Major League starts he has checked in at 15.8 or lower, and three of those were 14.4 or less. That is unheard of for guys with his velocity. Which tells us that it is not just about velocity. Of his 113 pitches at Baltimore, only 66 were fastballs, and for once he did not reach 100 on any of them. He does not have to - with a change-up and a curveball that check in at around 15 mph off of his top end, there is a gap that can buckle the knees of Major League batters.

Ventura has only had one bad outing so far, a game in which a patient Minnesota lineup tested his command. Which then leads to one of the more intriguing stories of this young season…

Twins – Peering beyond the patience

What the Twins did to Ventura is what they are trying to do to just about every pitcher they face – make them throw strikes to get outs. It has worked – on the heels of a horrific 66-96 campaign they begin the week at 12-11, and just one game behind in the AL Central. The catalyst for the turnaround is easy to see - after finishing a dismal #25 in runs last year, they are now #2 in the Majors in runs-per-game!

But be aware of the smoke and mirrors aspect. In 2013 the slash line read .242/.312/.380. This season it is .253/.353/.389. The average is up slightly, the slugging even less, but there is that big gap in the middle. They are leading the way in walk rate by a substantial margin, drawing a remarkable 37 percent more than the best team from the 2013 charts. Hell, only 10 players had a higher individual walk percentage in 2013 than the Twins have as a team this season. Naturally it has had a huge impact on their scoring - rating #2 in RPG is quite a feat when you are only #21 in hits.

The Twins already have five wins in games in which they had more runs than hits. Quick a feat, but can that be maintained? Can a team with such limited lumber continue to draw free passes when opposing moundsmen learn that there is little to fear? To date the draw of the pitching schedule has been most favorable (like missing Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander this weekend). And there has to be a genuine concern about Joe Mauer’s April. With only one HR in 111 plate appearances his slugging is down to .319, off of a career .465, and his strikeout rate is more than double his career average (23.4 percent, vs. 11.4). Since hitting 28 HR’s in 2009 he has only managed 34 since, and while the rest of his offensive skills were a net plus when slotted behind the plate, those power numbers put you in a hole at 1B, when compared to the production level of other teams at the position.

Last week David Price had 12 K’s vs. only one walk in a complete game win over the Twins, needing only 12.3 PPI. This offense might continue to wear down weak pitching with their patience, but could also be overmatched when stepping up in class, which can cause some problems for the oddsmakers in finding the balance point.

White Sox – John Danks and the warning signs

There might be a tendency to consider Danks an early “feel good” story. A lefty that had been having an above average career saw things fall of the rails when he was injured in 2012, working to a 5.70 ERA. Those numbers were a result of hanging on too long before having shoulder surgery, which then kept him from a Major League mound for over a full calendar year. In his return the allowance dropped to 4.75, but he was penalized with among the worst support numbers in The Show, which led to a 4-14 personal W/L tag. The White Sox only managed 63 runs across his 22 starts, remarkably never topping five in any game. And 2014 brings signs of momentum, with a 2-1/3.48 as April winds down.

If you only take a cursory look at the April numbers, you may think you see a pattern. Back-to-back seasons of major improvement, right? The old Danks is back! But when you take a deeper look, there are warning signs galore.

Danks has 18 strikeouts vs. only 17 walks, an awful ratio. To put that in perspective, his 5.2 K’s-per-9 are significantly down from a career 6.7, while his walks-per-9 are up alarmingly, from 2.9 to 4.9. Instead of that 3.48 being the barometer, attach much more weight should be attached to a 5.33 xFIP, and note where it places him – there are 111 pitchers that have thrown enough innings to classify on the seasonal tables, and Danks rates dead last. It is a classic case of ERA being an improper label, with the drop from 4.75 to 3.48 in that category over 2013 running contrary to the xFIP rise from 4.08 to 5.33 in the same time frame.

The saving grace for Danks has been the HR rate, but be careful with that. So far it has been .3 HR’s-per-9 at a 2.6 percent rate on all fly balls, but his career averages in those categories run at 1.1 and 10.6. As things warm up in the South side of Chicago, those fly balls will carry again, especially with his uninspiring velocity. You have been forewarned.

Cleveland – Searching for the pulse

The notion of “buy signals” is essential to winning at the betting windows, finding those timing sequences in which you can get ahead of the game as a team changes its direction. It makes the Indians a prime study right now, with a search for any signs of a beat from the “heart” of the order. As bad as April has been, there may have been a unique rock bottom at San Francisco over the weekend.

Carlos Santana has had an awful time at the plate, and some of that can be genuinely attributed to having to switch to 3B. But there was no way to anticipate .268/.377/.455 turning into .122/.301/.195. Jason Kipnis can be one of the best offensive 2B in the Majors, but his .284/.366/.452 of 2013 has opened at .247/.364/.416. Nick Swisher has fallen from .246/.341/.423 to .218/.292/.337. For Asdrubal Cabrera the decline is from .242/.299/.402 to .211/.290/.333.

So how bad was the weekend by the Bay? The #3 through #6 spots in the batting order chimed in with a woeful 3-40. Not surprisingly, it was an 0-3 collar vs. the Giants. But here is the gist going forward – despite those horrendous offensive performances, Cleveland is 11-14, and only three games back in the AL Central. And there really is a silver lining behind the hitters – while the team average has fallen from .255 to .237, and slugging from .410 to .362, the on-base has only dropped from .327 to .319. The Tribe rated #4 in the Majors in walk rate in 2013. 2014? How about #4 again. The patience is there, and their contact rate is actually improved (from #23 in K rate to #8). They are putting the ball in play, but the geometry of baseball has not been kind (#26 in BABIP at .278). This is an offense that will perform much better than this dismal April as the season progresses, and is worth close scrutiny for signs of a turnaround. It will be difficult for the key heart of the batting order to have a series worse than the one that they just had.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Niese is 1-1, 2.25 in his last three starts. Hamels allowed two runs in six IP in his first '14 start.
-- Wood is 2-3, 1.54 in five starts this season. Fernandez is 1-0, 1.80 in his last couple starts.
-- Samardzija has a 2.04 RA in five starts, but no wins. Simon is 3-1, 1.63 in his four starts this month.
-- Lohse is 4-0, 3.00 in his last four starts. Lynn is 2-1, 1.80 in his last three.
-- Stults is 1-0, 2.38 in his last couple starts.


-- Sabathia is 2-0, 2.77 in his last two starts.
-- Verlander is 3-0, 3.32 in his last three starts.
-- Perez hasn't allowed a run in his last 26 innings (4-0, 1.11 in last four starts). Oakland is 5-0 when Kazmir starts (3-0, 1.87).
-- Vargas is 2-0, 1.80 in five starts this season.
-- Weaver is 1-0, 1.50 in his last couple starts. Kluber is 2-1, 3.71 in his last four starts.

-- Tillman is 3-1, 3.94 in four starts this season.
-- GGonzalez is 3-1, 3.00 in five starts this season.
-- Greinke is 4-0, 2.45 in five starts this season. Gibson is 2-0, 0.63 in his two home starts this month.

Cold pitchers
-- Bolsinger is 1-1, 6.75 in two starts this season. Chatwood has a 4.74 RA in three starts.
-- Cain is 0-3, 4.94 in five starts this season.

-- Young is 0-0, 3.94 in three starts this season.
-- Lackey is 1-2, 6.16 in his last three starts. Bedard is 0-1, 9.39 in two starts.
-- Quintana is 1-2, 6.16 in his last three starts.
-- McGowan is 1-3, 6.88 in four starts this season.

-- Morton is 0-3, 6.16 in his last three starts.
-- Cosart is 0-1, 7.71 in his last three starts.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Niese 2-4; Hamels 0-1
-- Wood 3-5; Fernandez 1-5
-- Samardzija 1-5; Simon 1-4
-- Lohse 3-5; Lynn 2-5
-- Chatwood 0-3; Bolsinger 1-2
-- Stults 1-5; Cain 3-5

-- Young 1-3; Sabathia 2-5
-- Bedard 1-2; Lackey 2-5
-- Kazmir 1-5; Perez 0-5
-- Verlander 2-5; Quintana 1-5
-- McGowan 3-4; Vargas 0-5
-- Kluber 2-5; Weaver 1-5

-- Morton 0-5; Tillman 0-5
-- Gonzalez 2-5; Cosart 3-5
-- Greinke 0-5; Gibson 2-4

Totals
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Mets' last seven road games.
-- Four of five Wood starts stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Cub road games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Milwaukee road games went over.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Arizona home games.
-- Eight of last ten San Diego road games stayed under.

-- Seven of last nine Bronx home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last ten Boston games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven White Sox games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Oakland road games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Toronto games went over the total.
-- Eight of nine Angel home games went over the total.

-- Five of last six Pittsburgh games stayed under.
-- Last seven Washington road games went over.
-- Six of last seven Minnesota games went over.

Hot teams
-- Mets/Phillies both won six of their last eight games.
-- Braves won 12 of their last 15 games.
-- Brewers won eight of last ten games. St Louis won four of last six at home.
-- Rockies won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Giants won four of last five games; San Diego won six of its last nine on the road. .

-- Bronx won six of its last seven home games.
-- Texas won seven of its last nine home games.
-- White Sox won six of last nine home games.
-- Kansas City won six of its nine home games.
-- Angels won three of their last four home games.

-- Orioles are 7-1 in game following their last eight losses.
-- Washington is 6-1 in game after its last seven losses.
-- Minnesota won six of its last eight home games.

Cold teams
-- Marlins lost five of last six games, but are 8-4 at home.
-- Cincinnati lost its last three games, scoring five runs. Cubs lost six of their last seven road games.
-- Arizona lost 11 of its last 12 home games.

-- Mariners lost their last six away games.
-- Tampa Bay lost six of its last seven away games. Boston is 2-6 in first game of a series.
-- Detroit lost five of last six series openers.
-- Oakland lost five of its last eight games.
-- Blue Jays lost four of their last five games.
-- Cleveland lost its last five road games.

-- Pirates lost five of their last six games.
-- Astros lost six of their last eight home games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven games.

Umpires
-- Mil-StL-- Four of last five Reyburn games stayed under.
-- Col-Az-- Five of last six Demuth games stayed under.
-- SD-SF-- All three Hernandez games went over total.

-- A's-Tex-- All three Pattillo games stayed under total.
-- Cle-LAA-- Home team won ten of last thirteen Rackley games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Bulls -4.5
A's -105
Orioles (RL) -1.5(+157)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Tuesday

Red Sox -158

Brewers/Cards over 7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play TUES Tigers -145

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Heat (-7) on Monday and likes the NHL Rangers on Tuesday.

The deficit is 255 sirignanos.

 

[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
Los Angeles Angels -144 over Cleveland Indians
(System Record: 17-0, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 17-12

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Philadelphia Flyers -105 over New York Rangers
(Playoff Record: 7-3, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 98-78-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Fezzik
507 WAS / 508 CHI UNDER 183.5

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Golden State Warriors +6 over Los Angeles Clippers
(Playoff Record: 5-3-1, lost last game and a push)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 83-89-6

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Union Espanola + Arsenal de Sarandi UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Conmebol
(System Record: 562-20, won last game and a push)
Overall Record: 562-477-82

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Essler's Tuesday MLB - Bonus Play & Notes

980 MIN1.5 (-120) BetOnline vs 979 LOS
Analysis: I'm not even sure they'll play this game, but if they do, it's supposed to be super-cold and super-windy, perhaps even snow later in the evening. Several Twins saw (and hit) Greinke when he was with the Royals, so give me the home team here. How many Dodgers are used to THIS weather? And if they play, give me the Twins bullpen which has an ERA of 1.26 over the last week over the Dodgers, which hasn't been nearly as effective. Hanley is questionable, and I actually hope he DOES play. Plouffe may not play, but that's not a real negative.

Mets-Phillies: Both teams rested, but not taking Niese at that price against a Phillies team that stopped hitting might be a bad thing. Hamels had his one game since the DL stint, and threw only 86 pitches. The Mets have fared well against him, so without even looking much further I won't take Philadelphia. I could pass, but not taking the Phillies and lean over, but haven't looked at the weather yet, either. I could, but I am lazy right now.

Atlanta-Miami: That does look cheap for Jose Fernandez, or it's a gift to get Atlanta at that price. Honestly, I didn't expect Wood to pitch that well against the Fish last week, and the kids' had four straight 100+ pitch games at the age of 23. Miami may make the adjustments. And Jose struck out 14 Braves and allowed only three hits in Atlanta last week. The one problem I have with Fernandez is that he simply doesn't usually pitch deep, although he went 8 last week. Since the Braves are SO dependent on the long ball, it's tough to take them in a park where unless it's down the lines, it's not going out. Braves pen has been throwing MUCH better, and so has Miami's. If you made me, the Fish are 6-1 against left handed starters.

Cubs-Reds: We'll see what happens tonight, but Cingrani may not be worth -170 or so. I watched his last start, and he had little movement on his fastball and was fortunate to be playing in a big park (Pittsburgh) against a team that hadn't been hitting. Two straight starts with high pitch counts and lots of flyball outs, so he's almost overdue to get hammered, However, it may not be the Cubs. Jackson just faced the Reds and held them reasonably in check, but he hasn't been able to last much past six innings, which brings the Cubs pen into the equation sooner rather than later. Total of only 7.5 at this park probably means bad weather or wind blowing in, so I hope it goes to 8 so we can take the under and/or the Cubs RL, Monday dependent.

Brewers-Cardinals: Obviously Lohse back in real form lately, but the Cardinals are one team he's struggled against since leaving there, so I really can't back him without a full compliment of hitters behind him. And although Lynn seems to have turned back the clock a couple of years, his one home start was terrible and he really didn't look good against the Mets the other day. I don't trust the Cardinal bullpen (why would we), but Segura and Braun were the only two Brewers that DID have success against him. Otherwise, I'd have taken the over, and still might.

Colorado-Arizona: The D-Backs saga continues. When Mike Bolsinger is essentially your best starter you may be in trouble. But, he can strike people out, which against the Rockies in a small park (roof open or not) might prove to be the difference. The Rockies haven't seen him, so perhaps a F5 under. Chatwood had two great starts and then the Giants hit him around pretty good, and in limited exposure the D-Backs have hit him a little. With that in mind and their bullpen it's the over for the game b/c AZ has no pen whatsoever, and perhaps the D-Backs. Perhaps. Although the early money is already fading them.

Giants-Padres: Without Headley or Seth Smith it's just going to be tough for San Diego to score. He did get lit up in Colorado and the Padres just saw him, so with Stults on the mound we might be able to make a case for the Padres RL somehow, but the Giants also just saw HIM and he held them to three hits in six innings. Depending on who the Giants rest tonight and what bullpen gets used, we also might make a case, if the Giants start to hit, for the over. At 6.5 it's almost foreseeable that the Giants get that many if they take the game serious, and somehow San Diego will get a COUPLE off of Cain who tends to lose focus at certain points.

Seattle-New York: Interesting that the total here is already down to 8 in Yankee Stadium with Young pitching and Sabathia is ONLY -160 after shutting down Boston. It's certainly due to the weather, which is damp with wind blowing in. With that in mind and not even looking at splits, I might be able to take the Seattle RL, simply because CC will likely regress at least mentally, and the Mariners are 6-3 against left handed starters.

Rays-Boston: Bedard looked simply terrible against the Twins the other night, which was a good thing for us, and clearly factored into this line already. He spent some time with the Red Sox and many years with the Orioles, so Fenway is no stranger to him. And of course there is simply no way Lackey has the year he had last season. Two awful starts then he gets pumped and beats the Yankees, and of course the Rays have had their way with him. I obviously don't like that Boston will be far more rested and the Rays pen has been terrible. Even with a chilly night and some breeze blowing in the total is probably going to go to 9.5, so if you like the over, it's probably now or never.

Oakland-Texas: I always look to back the Rangers against a LHP, which of course Kazmir is, and I probably will. Simply because if you look at who Kazmir has faced, it's not the most offensively potent teams in the league. Perez is a serious ground ball pitcher, but he JUST faced the A's and simply dominated them. This one has a play, dependent on what happens in the Monday game.

Detroit-Chicago: I've grown tired of Quintana and he's turned into a flyball pitcher, and just threw against the Tigers last week. He was respectable, but I'm not sure, with their bullpen, that we could find a way, unless it was the RL, to back them. Verlander obviously just faced Chicago, and was hit "some" or "more than usual" and since the White Sox know him so well, I could see looking at the over but the weather's not real conducive to that. Chicago playing the Rays tonight and the Tigers sitting in a Chicago hotel watching, so this one's not going to be done til tonight's game is.

Toronto-Kansas City: My first instinct is to almost always take Toronto against LHP, and with Reyes back there may be some merit in fading Vargas here. Five straight games with far more flyball outs and five straight games with 100+ pitches. His value has probably never been higher. But, of course McGown just kind of gets hammered and doesn't last very long, hence one of the worst bullpens in the league will be called upon. That total, with the predicted weather, is probably going to go to 8 everywhere. That COULD be enough for me to look at the over.

Cleveland-Los Angeles: Since the Indians are usually far more effective against lefties, that could be a reasonable price to lay on Weaver. BUT, the Angels are 1-4 in his starts and he IS a flyball pitcher. Kluber has more or less been the model of consistency, but I noticed he's been getting the ball up lately as well, even in that four-hitter against the Royals there were 17 (that's a lot) flyball outs. Since the Angels haven't seen him and there's a slight breeze blowing in, I might look at the F5 under here. Not sure I trust either bullpen, and again much is dependent on Monday's game, or enough that I wouldn't bet it til it's over.

 

[jdsabre]

Jeff Clement

7 Units Indians / Angels Under 7.5

 

[jdsabre]

Diamond Dog Sports
MLB
Sides 28-24-0
+560
#957 Brewers +145. (1*)
Listed Pitcher: Lohse / Lynn

#967 Rangers -110. (1*)
Listed Pitcher: Kazmir / Perez

Totals 21-26-2
-925
#963/964 Over Yankees 8.0 +100 (1.5*)
Listed Pitcher: Young / Sabathia

#973/974 Over Angels 7.5 -120 (.5*)
Listed Pitcher: Kluber / Weaver

NBA
#507/508. Over Bulls 183.5 -105 (4*)

 

[jdsabre]

The factsman


mlb [968] texas rangers -115
( s kazmir -l / m perez -l )

 

[pascal5757]

BeatYourBookie

TUESDAY

NBA Basketball


10* Play Washington +4.5 over Chicago (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play Oklahoma City -6 over Memphis (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play Golden State +6 over LA Clippers (NBA TOP PLAY)


NHL Hockey


10* Play NY Rangers -105 over Philadelphia (NHL TOP PLAY