SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
EAGLE BANK BOWL
(at Washington, D.C.)
UCLA (6-6 SU and ATS) vs. Temple (9-3, 8-3 ATS)
Temple returns to the postseason for the first time in 30 years and faces the Bruins for the first time ever when these surprise bowl entrants clash inside RFK Stadium in the nation’s capital.
The Owls posted just their fourth winning season in the past 30 years and their first since 1990. They rattled off nine straight wins before losing to Ohio 35-17 as a two-point road favorite in the regular-season finale, keeping them from winning the Mid-American Conference’s East Division and a berth in the league championship game.
UCLA won three of four (2-2 ATS) to close the season and earn its first postseason bid since 2007, but the Bruins didn’t secure a spot in this game until Army lost to Navy on Dec. 12. The postseason looked like a pipedream when UCLA dropped five straight games in October (1-4 ATS), and despite the 3-1 surge at the end of the season, the Bruins – under second-year coach Rick Nueheisel – still only finished eighth in the Pac-10 at 3-6 (both SU and ATS). They ended the year with a 28-7 loss to archrival USC as a 13-point road underdog.
Going back to the 1993 season, UCLA has dropped eight of 11 bowl games, including a 17-16 loss to BYU in the 2007 Las Vegas Bowl. However, the Bruins cashed as a six-point underdog in that contest.
Temple scored 24 points or more in each of their nine consecutive wins (7-2 ATS) and held the opposition to 19 points or less six times. The Owls are led by MAC Freshman of the Year Bernard Pierce who rushed for 1,308 yards and 15 touchdowns. Temple has rushed for more than 200 yards in six straight games and it is ranked 23rd in the nation in rushing at 192.3 ypg. Defensively, Temple is 19th in the country against the run, yielding just 108.8 ypg, and sophomore Adrian Robinson was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year.
The Bruins were held below 20 points six times this season and averaged a paltry 21.3 points and 339.3 yards per game. Part of the problem for the offense was inconsistent QB play from freshman Kevin Prince, who threw for just 1,829 yards with six touchdowns and seven interceptions. Three QBs – Prince, Kevin Craft and Richard Brehaut – combined for 11 INTs versus just eight TD passes.
While the offense sputtered, UCLA’s defense carried the team, yielding just 21.2 points and 338.3 yards per outing, including 194 passing ypg. The Bruins have the nation’s best pass thief in safety Rahim Moore, who had nine interceptions this season, and two third-team All-Americans in defensive tackle Brian Price, who had 34½ tackles for losses, and cornerback Alterraun Verner (5 INTs).
Temple is on several positive ATS streaks, including 9-3 overall, 4-1 as an underdog, 5-1-1 after a non-cover and 4-0 in non-conference action. UCLA is just 1-5 ATS in its last five against winning teams, but otherwise is on ATS streaks of 5-1 in December, 6-1 as a favorite, 4-0 in non-conference games and 17-8 following a non-cover.
The Owls are stayed below the posted total in eight of 11 after a non-cover, but they have topped the number in seven straight overall and four of five as underdogs. Meanwhile, the Bruins are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 34-16-1 overall, 5-2 in bowl games, 7-2 as a favorite, 4-1 in December, 19-6-1 against winning teams and 14-3 after a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
CHAMPS SPORTS CITRUS BOWL
(at Orlando, Fla.)
(24) Wisconsin (9-3, 5-6 ATS) vs. (14) Miami, Fla. (9-3, 6-5 ATS)
The Badgers are making their sixth straight trip to Florida for a bowl game, this time facing streaking Miami in the Citrus Bowl, with this being just the second matchup of ranked teams this bowl season.
Wisconsin won four of five (3-2 ATS) to close the season, but lost its rivalry game at Northwestern on Nov. 21, falling 33-31 as a seven-point road chalk. The Badgers then went to Hawaii two weeks later and scored an easy 51-10 victory as 11½-point favorites. Wisconsin scored 31 points or more in each of its last five games (average of 39 ppg), but in back-to-back SU and ATS losses to Ohio State (road) and Iowa (home) in October, it was held to just 23 total points.
Miami also won four of five (2-3 ATS) to close the regular season, but dominated the final two weeks, crushing Duke 34-16 (pushing as a 19-point home chalk) and then going to South Florida and rolling to a 31-10 victory (cashing as a 3½-point favorite to end the regular season).
These squads haven’t met since a home-and-home series in 1988 and 1989, when Miami was one of college football’s elite squads and outscored Wisconsin 74-6 in the two games. However, the teams split the cash, with the ‘Canes laying 32 points on the road and 40 points at home.
The Badgers are in their eighth straight bowl game, but dropped each of the last two. Last year, Wisconsin played in the Champs Sports Bowl and fell to Florida State 42-13 as a six-point underdog, and in January 2008, the Badgers dropped a 21-17 decision to Tennessee in the Outback Bowl in Tampa, Fla., coming up just short as 2½-point underdogs.
This is Miami’s ninth postseason trip in 10 years, going 5-3 SU in the first eight. Last year, the ‘Canes traveled across the country to San Francisco for the Emerald Bowl and fell to California 24-17, but cashed as 10-point underdogs.
RB John Clay was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year for the Badgers, rushing for 1,369 yards and 16 TDs this season. Wisconsin’s rushing attack ranks 14th in the nation at 206.7 ypg. Defensively, the Badgers were extremely inconsistent, giving up 28 points or more six times while holding five opponents to 20 points or less. However, they were strong against the run, yielding just 90.5 rushing ypg (2.9 per carry).
Miami is led by sophomore QB Jacory Harris, who ranked 15th in the Football Bowl Subdivision with 3,164 yards and 23 TDs, but he did tie for the most INTs in the nation with 17. The Hurricanes scored at least 27 points in nine of 12 games, and if you take away a seven-point effort against Virginia Tech (31-7 loss) and a 21-20 win over Oklahoma, Miami averaged 39.9 ppg. Defensively, the ‘Canes held the opposition to 20 points or less in six of their final nine contests and yielded just 264 yards per game in their final four games, holding three of those opponents to 17 points or less.
Wisconsin is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning record and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog. Miami is on several positive ATS streaks, including 7-3 in bowl games, 3-0 against non-ACC foes, and 5-2 against teams with a winning record, but the ‘Canes are also on pointspread slides of 10-24-1 as a favorite and 2-5 in December.
The Badgers are on “over” streaks of 4-0 overall, 8-1 after a straight-up win, 4-2 in non-conference play and 6-1 after a spread-cover. On the flip side, the Hurricanes are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 35-15 in non-conference play, 4-1 in bowl games, 4-1 in December contests, 6-1 against winning teams and 14-7 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI, FLA.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Marquette (9-3, 3-3 ATS) at (6) West Virginia (10-0, 4-5 ATS)
Marquette looks to knock off its second Top 25 opponent this season when it travels to the Coliseum in Morgantown for a clash with the undefeated Mountaineers in the Big East opener for both teams.
The Golden Eagles capped the non-conference portion of their schedule with a pair of blowout, non-lined home wins over North Florida (78-51 on Dec. 19) and Presbyterian (102-62 on Sunday). Prior to devouring those cupcakes, Marquette has lost three of four, including a 72-63 loss to then-No. 20 Wisconsin as a 5½-point road underdog, its only true road game to date. The Eagles’ only other battle against a ranked foe was a 79-65 blowout victory over then-No. 15 Michigan as a 1½-point underdog in a preseason tournament in Florida.
West Virginia survived its second scare in a seven-day stretch on Saturday, outlasting Seton Hall 90-84 in overtime to remain unbeaten, covering as a four-point road favorite. The previous Saturday, the Mountaineers blew a 19-point second-half lead at Cleveland State and barely held on for an 80-78 win as a hefty 15½-point road chalk. In between, Bob Huggins’ squad topped Ole Miss at home 76-66, but came up short as an 11½-point favorite. West Virginia is 5-0 at home (1-3 ATS), outscoring visitors by an average of 22.4 ppg (73-51.6).
The home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the four Big East meetings between these teams, all of them double-digit blowouts and all taking place in the past four seasons. Last year, Marquette cruised to a 75-53 win as a 1½-point chalk, as the winner and favorite have easily cashed in all four head-to-head clashes, which were decided by margins of 19, 18, 15 and 22 points.
West Virginia is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games going back to last season and 1-4 ATS in its last five Tuesday outings.
Marquette is on “over” streaks of 5-2 on the road, 5-2 in Big East play and 6-2 after a SU win, but the under is 5-1 in its last six Tuesday contests. Also, the Mountaineers are riding “under” stretches of 5-2 at home, 10-4 in conference, 13-3-1 on Tuesday and 8-2 after a spread-cover. Lastly, the past two clashes between these schools have stayed below the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA
(20) Texas Tech (10-1, 5-1 ATS) at (19) New Mexico (12-1, 9-2-1 ATS)
New Mexico tries to bounce back from its first setback of the season when it returns to The Pit in Albuquerque for a non-conference battle with the Red Raiders in the day’s only matchup between Top 25 teams.
Texas Tech followed up its first defeat – an 85-83 loss at Wichita State as a six-point underdog – with a 100-87 rout of Stanford a week ago tonight. The Red Raiders cashed as a seven-point home favorite, their fifth straight spread-cover. Over its last five games, Tech is averaging 87.2 ppg (51.3 percent shooting) but allowed 77.4 ppg (42.8 percent).
Unranked to start the season, the Lobos climbed all the way to No. 13 in the national polls after winning their first 12 games, but the bubble burst in Wednesday’s shocking 75-66 road loss at Oral Roberts in a non-lined game. Including a 66-61 home win over Creighton 10 days ago, New Mexico has scored 66 points in consecutive games after tallying more than 80 points in nine of their previous 10 games.
These regional rivals have squared off five times this decade, including the last three years in a row, with Texas Tech winning four of the five contests and New Mexico going 3-1 ATS in the last four. The host has taken the last three clashes and is 4-1 ATS in the last five, including the Lobos’ 80-63 rout as a five-point home favorite in 2007 followed by the Red Raiders’ 86-78 win as a 1½-point home chalk in 2008.
In addition to its 5-0 ATS run overall, Texas Tech has cashed in five of six on the road and five of six against teams with a winning record, but the Raiders are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 on Tuesday. New Mexico is on pointspread rolls of 11-2-1 overall, 34-16-1 at home, 34-16-2 in non-conference lined games, 5-1 against the Big 12 and 5-0 after a SU loss.
Texas Tech carries nothing but “over” trends, including 30-10-2 overall, 19-7 as a visitor, 9-1-1 in non-league play, 4-0 versus the Mountain West, 13-3 after a SU win and 18-7-1 after a spread-cover. Also, the over is 3-1 in the Lobos’ last four lined outings and 4-0 in the Lobos’ last four versus Big 12 opponents. Lastly, the past two meetings in this rivalry easily went over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW MEXICO and OVER
NBA
Cleveland (24-8, 17-15 ATS) at Atlanta (21-8 SU and ATS)
Two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference square off for the first time since an opening-round playoff series last spring, as the Hawks host the Cavaliers at Philips Arena.
Cleveland – playing its fifth road game in its last six contests – brings a four-game SU and ATS winning streak into Atlanta. The Cavaliers followed up a dominating 102-87 upset victory over the Lakers on Christmas Day with Sunday’s 108-83 destruction of the Rockets, cashing as an 8½-point home chalk. LeBron James’s crew has also won nine of its last 10 and 13 of its last 16, and it has matched its season high with four straight spread-covers (which comes on the heels of a 2-6 ATS slump).
The Cavaliers have cleared the century mark in all four games during their current win streak, averaging 109 ppg while holding the opposition to 91.3 ppg. Also, during their 10-1 SU run, the Cavs are 5-1 SU and ATS as a visitor, improving to 12-6 SU and ATS on the highway, with the SU winner cashing in all 18 of those games.
Atlanta returns home following a 2-2 SU and ATS road trip that ended with Saturday’s 110-98 rout at Indiana as a six-point visiting chalk. It marked the sixth time in the last nine games that the Hawks scored at least 110 points, and they won all six. Atlanta is 8-2 SU and ATS in its last 10 contests, including 4-0 SU and ATS at home. For the season, the Hawks are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS at Philips Arena.
The SU winner has covered the spread in 27 of Atlanta’s 29 games this year, including the last 16 in a row overall and the last seven in a row at home.
Cleveland swept the Hawks out of last year’s Eastern Conference playoffs, going 3-0-1 ATS, and the Cavs have won six in a row and eight of the last nine in this rivalry, going 4-1 SU in Atlanta. However, the Hawks covered in the final three regular-season meetings last year (2-0 ATS at home), all as an underdog. The host is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head matchups, but Cleveland is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to Atlanta.
Although they’ve cashed in four in a row overall and five of six on the highway, the Cavaliers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six on Tuesday. Atlanta’s 21-8 ATS mark on the season is buoyed by additional pointspread runs of 25-10-2 at home, 15-7-1 against the Central Division, 4-1 versus the Eastern Conference and 4-0 when coming off two days’ rest.
For Cleveland, the under is on runs of 5-1 in Eastern Conference games, 10-4 on Tuesday, 38-14 when coming off a victory of more than 10 points and 39-16 after an ATS triumph. Conversely, Atlanta carries “over” trends of 5-2 overall, 10-2 at home, 6-1 versus the Eastern Conference and 4-1 against the Central Division. Finally, the under is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these teams, including 3-0 in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE