STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 21st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 10/21/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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World Series - Best of 7 - Game #1
#901 SAN FRANCISCO @ #902 KANSAS CITY
TV: 8:07 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: Giants -110, Total: 6.5 -120
The red-hot Kansas City Royals kick off their first appearance in the World Series since 1985 when they host the National League-champion San Francisco Giants in Game #1 on Tuesday night. The American League-champion Royals are a perfect 8-0 this postseason, taking the wild-card route to the pennant. San Francisco is in the World Series for the third time in five seasons as it also began this postseason journey as a wild-card entrant.
NL Championship Series MVP Madison Bumgarner will be on the mound for the Giants in the opener despite losing to the Royals during the regular season. James Shields, who pitched a four-hit shutout against San Francisco in August, starts for Kansas City. Both teams feature strong bullpens and have a knack for producing unlikely heroes – such as San Francisco's Travis Ishikawa, who belted a walk-off, three-run homer to end the National League Championship Series matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals.
PITCHING MATCHUP
•Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (20-11, 2.78 ERA, WHIP: 1.048) - Bumgarner has pitched at least seven innings in each of his four postseason starts and is holding opposing batters to a .170 average. In the regular-season loss to the Royals, he gave up four runs (three earned) and seven hits in eight frames as Kansas City's Billy Butler had a homer and three RBIs. Bumgarner is 2-0 and hasn’t allowed a run in 15 World Series innings, blanking Texas on three hits in eight frames in 2010 and Detroit on two hits over seven innings in 2012. (BUMGARNER is 0-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 0.875. His team's record is 0-1 -1.0 units in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. +1.0 units).
--BUMGARNER is 8-1 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUMGARNER 5.6, OPPONENT 1.7.
--BUMGARNER is 9-1 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUMGARNER 3.7, OPPONENT 2.2.
•Royals RH James Shields (15-8, 3.37 ERA, WHIP: 1.210) - Shields has struggled in the postseason, giving up 21 hits in 16 innings as opponents have touched him for a .309 average. He was at the top of his game in the regular-season outing against San Francisco, striking out five and walking one while tossing his ninth career shutout. Shields won his lone career World Series start, beating Philadelphia in 2008 as he gave up seven hits in 5 2/3 scoreless frames as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. (SHIELDS is 1-0 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.556. His team's record is 1-0 +1.0 units in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. -1.2 units).
--SHIELDS is 17-4 (+12.5 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 4.8, OPPONENT 2.4.
--SHIELDS is 31-15 UNDER (+13.3 Units) when playing on Tuesday since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 3.8, OPPONENT 3.6.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kansas City swept a three-game home series against San Francisco in August, stealing seven bases in the finale.... Giants RHP Santiago Casilla hasn’t allowed a run in 12 consecutive appearances, while Royals RHP Greg Holland has converted 26 straight save opportunities – including six in the postseason.... Kansas City 1B Eric Hosmer is batting .448 in the postseason, while San Francisco 3B Pablo Sandoval is hitting .326.... The Royals have been putting up a lot of runs on the board against left-handed pitching recently, evidenced by the Over going 5-1-1 in the Royals' last seven games versus lefties.
•RESEARCH NOTES
-- Madison Bumgarner allowed a .107 batting average in at-bats ending with a fastball up in the zone or higher in the regular season. Mike Moustakas hit .164 in such at-bats, 72 points below the league average. Moustakas hit .257 in at-bats ending in a slider or cutter down in the zone or lower, 70 points above the league average.
-- James Shields recorded 61 of his 180 strikeouts (34 percent) on changeups in the lower third of the zone or below. His batting average allowed against such pitches rose from .190 on changeups down to .341 on changeups in the upper two thirds of the zone. However, Brandon Belt is 3 for 5 this postseason with 2 hard hit balls in at-bats to end in a low changeup. Additionally, Pablo Sandoval's 11 hard-hit balls on low changeups ranked fourth in baseball in the regular season.
-- Hunter Pence is 0-for-7 with 7 strikeouts in at-bats to end on a pitch on the outer two third of the plate or away from a right-handed pitcher this postseason.
-- Eric Hosmer is 10-of-19 with a triple, two home runs, four walks, and six RBI in plate appearances ending with a fastball this postseason. Aside from Eric Hosmer, Royals hitters are hitting .252 against fastballs this postseason. In the regular season, the Royals chased 34 percent of the fastballs they saw with a velocity of at least 95 MPH out of the strike zone, highest in MLB. Hunter Strickland and Santiago Casilla were the only Giants postseason bullpen members to throw a fastball at least 95 MPH this season.
-- Madison Bumgarner has thrown 55 curveballs this postseason, resulting in three hits over 24 at-bats with 13 strikeouts. The Royals have a .593 OPS in plate appearances ending with a curveball in the postseason, and they had a .503 OPS against the pitch in the regular season, lowest in the AL.
-- Michael Morse is expected to be the DH for the Giants during World Series games played in Kansas City. In 123 career at-bats as a DH Morse has a career .220 batting average, .250 on-base pct and .276 slug pct. Those would all be improvements over how Giants designated hitters have fared in previous Fall Classics.
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•KEY STATS
--KANSAS CITY is 40-23 UNDER (+13.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.8, OPPONENT 3.4.
--KANSAS CITY is 27-13 UNDER (+11.8 Units) versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 4.1, OPPONENT 3.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--Games Over The Last 3 Seasons: KANSAS CITY is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons. 2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Under= +0.8 Units.
--Giants are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings.
--Giants are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Kansas City.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 9-2 in SF last 11 Tuesday games.
--Under is 4-1-1 in SF last 6 games as a road favorite.
--Under is 5-2 in SF L7 interleague road games vs. a RH starter.
--Under is 4-1-1 in KC last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
--Under is 7-1 in KC L8 interleague home games vs. a LH starter.
--Under is 5-2 in Royals last 7 versus the National League West.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - All teams where the total is 7 or less (KANSAS CITY) - below average American League hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season.
(110-63 since 1997.) (63.6%, +37.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 6.8, Money Line=-114.4
The average score in these games was: Team 3.2, Opponent 3 (Total runs scored = 6.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 84 (52.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (32-29, -1.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (84-54, +22.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (94-59, +26.6 units).
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