STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 14th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 10/14/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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National League Championship Series
#961 ST LOUIS @ #962 SAN FRANCISCO
TV: 4:07 PM EST, FS1
Line: Giants -120, Total: 7 -120
The St. Louis Cardinals will be without standout catcher Yadier Molina when the scene shifts to AT&T Park in San Francisco for Wednesday afternoon’s Game #3 of the National League Championship Series. Kolten Wong’s ninth-inning homer to end Sunday’s Game #2 allowed the Cardinals to even the series at one win apiece, but St. Louis lost Molina to an oblique injury earlier in the contest. The injury could sideline the six-time All-Star for the rest of the postseason.
The Cardinals will be attempting to make it through the rest of the series with catchers Tony Cruz and A.J. Pierzynski, which represents a huge drop-off from Molina. “It stinks,’ Giants catcher Buster Posey said of Molina’s injury. “You hate to see anybody go down, especially a guy like him that means so much to their team. It’s too bad.” Wong was one of four St. Louis players to hit homers in Sunday’s 5-4 win, joining Matt Carpenter, Oscar Taveras and Matt Adams.
PITCHING MATCHUP
•Cardinals RH John Lackey (15-10, 3.73 ERA, WHIP: 1.263) - Lackey was acquired due to his postseason experience, and manager Mike Matheny is expecting he will rise to the occasion. “Every time he was on the mound, he is one of those guys that is going to come into a big situation and into a hostile environment, and we love what San Francisco brings,” Matheny told reporters. “The excitement they bring, and the city is fired up for the matchup.” Lackey is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in two career starts against San Francisco.
--LACKEY is 3-12 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.1, OPPONENT 5.6.
--LACKEY is 1-9 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 2.7, OPPONENT 5.4.
--LACKEY is 50-27 UNDER (+18.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 4.2, OPPONENT 4.2.
--LACKEY is 17-5 UNDER (+11.1 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.4, OPPONENT 3.1.
--LACKEY is 14-2 UNDER (+11.6 Units) in playoff games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.4, OPPONENT 2.8.
--LACKEY is 16-4 UNDER (+11.3 Units) after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.0, OPPONENT 3.9.
--LACKEY is 1-11 against the run line (-14.0 Units) in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 2.5, OPPONENT 5.3.
•Giants RH Tim Hudson (9-13, 3.48 ERA, WHIP: 1.220) - Hudson lost his final four starts of the regular season before rebounding with a strong outing against Washington in the NL Divisional Series, as he gave up one run and seven hits over 7 1/3 innings in a no-decision. The 39-year-old veteran merely was average at home during the regular season, going 5-5 with a 3.94 ERA in 14 starts. Hudson is 4-4 with a 5.26 ERA in 13 career outings against St. Louis but defeated the Cardinals this year when he gave up three hits over seven scoreless frames.
--HUDSON is 34-10 (+20.0 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUDSON 5.0, OPPONENT 2.9.
--HUDSON is 57-25 (+24.1 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUDSON 5.0, OPPONENT 3.4.
--HUDSON is 16-2 (+13.8 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUDSON 5.2, OPPONENT 3.1.
•PREGAME NOTES: Carpenter has four homers in six games this postseason and a .958 slugging percentage in 24 at-bats.... Posey went 0-for-4 in Game #2 for his first hitless game this postseason.... St. Louis LF Matt Holliday is 9-for-26 with five RBIs against Hudson.... Molina has started 83 consecutive postseason games for the Cardinals. That's by far the longest streak by a catcher in MLB history. The last catcher other than Molina to start for St. Louis was Mike Matheny, in Game #3 of the 2004 World Series.... On Sunday, St. Louis became the first club to hit home runs in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings of a postseason game.
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•KEY STATS
--ST LOUIS is 36-52 (-22.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 3.5, OPPONENT 4.1.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 71-48 (+22.8 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 3.5.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--Games Over The Last 3 Seasons: SAN FRANCISCO is 14-14 (+1.5 Units) against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons. 16 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Over= +4.9 Units.
--Games This Season: SAN FRANCISCO is 5-4 (+1.4 Units) against ST LOUIS this season. 5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season Over= +1.1 Units.
--All Games At SAN FRANCISCO Over The Last 3 Seasons: ST LOUIS is 6-6 (+0.9 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons. 7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Over= +2.6 Units.
--Games Played At SAN FRANCISCO This Season: ST LOUIS is 2-1 (+1.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season. 2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season Under= +0.8 Units.
--Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in San Francisco.
--Cardinals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.
•RECENT TRENDS
--STL is 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
--STL is 1-5 in their last 6 League Championship road games.
--STL is 1-4 in LACKEYS L5 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
--SF is 6-1 in their last 7 playoff home games.
--SF is 7-1 in their last 8 versus National League Central.
--SF is 9-1 L10 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
•UMPIRE TRENDS - Gerry Davis
--Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games with Davis behind home plate.
--Under is 5-1 in Davis' last 6 Tuesday games behind home plate.
--Home team is 5-1 in Davis' last 6 games behind home plate vs. San Francisco.
--Under is 5-1 in Davis' last 6 Tuesday games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
--Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 games with Davis behind home plate.
--Over is 4-1 in Davis' last 5 games behind home plate.
--Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games with Davis behind home plate.
--Under is 4-1 in Davis' last 5 Tuesday games behind home plate vs. San Francisco.
--Home team is 4-1 in Davis' last 5 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
--Under is 19-7 in Davis' last 26 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
--Home team is 24-9 in Davis' last 33 Tuesday games behind home plate.
--Home team is 37-15 in Davis' last 52 games behind home plate.
--Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Davis behind home plate.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS:Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ST LOUIS) - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts against opponent terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season, after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games.
(97-40 since 1997.) (70.8%, +43.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -133.3
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.1)
The situation's record this season is: (4-4, -0.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-13, +1.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (38-16, +17.9 units).
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