STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/28/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 1/28/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Tuesday's Notebook
•Mike Anderson went 77-29 his last three years at Missouri; now he's in third year at Arkansas- home team won his first two games versus Missouri, winning by 2 here in Fayetteville, losing by 30 in Columbia. Home team covered five of Razorbacks' six SEC games; they're 2-1 as home favorites, winning by 2-19 in home games, losing to Florida. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 7-2 versus spread. Missouri is 1-2 on SEC road; three games were decided by total of 11 points.
•Baylor lost its last four games after starting season 13-2; they lost last two home games, to Oklahoma/Texas, are 1-4-1 versus spread in league this year. Bears swept West Virginia by 20-3 points LY. West Virginia lost four of last five games; their only Big X wins are TCU/Texas Tech (twice). Big X home favorites of 6 or less points are 2-6 versus spread. Baylor is last in Big X; teams shoot 54.5% on 2-pointers against them.
•Michigan State won six in row, 11 of last 12 games with Iowa, but State is banged up (Payne/Dawsen out) right now, coming off emotional loss at home to Michigan last game. Over last 4.5 years, Spartans are 9-7 as road dogs in Big Dozen games. Big Dozen single digit home favorites are 3-12 versus spread this year. Iowa is 3-0 at home, 2-1 as home favorites, with wins by 10-26-21 points at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
•South Florida is 0-4 at home, 1-2 as home dogs in first American Athletic Conference year, with home losses by 15-9-7-39 points. Bulls (+10.5) lost 71-54 at SMU Jan 15; Mustangs shot 59% inside arc, led by 16 after 10:00. Mustangs won last five games, covered last seven; this is quick turnaround after 75-68 win at Houston Sunday, game they trailed by six at half. AAC home underdogs of 7 or less points are 1-5 versus spread.
•Wichita State is 8-0 in Missouri Valley Conference, 7-1 versus spread, 4-0 as home favorite, with home wins by 14-19-22-20 points- they covered last four games overall. Underdogs are 6-1-1 versus spread in Loyola's conference games; Ramblers lost all three road games by 12-9-5 points (1-1-1 as road dogs). MVC home favorites of 9+ points are 7-3 versus spread. Loyola is last in MVC, forcing least turnovers, turning it over the most, a bad combination.
•Kansas State won last seven games with Texas Tech, winning last four in Manhattan by 12-34-19-20 points. Wildcats covered last four games, are 2-0 as Big X home favorites, winning home games by 3-6-22. Texas Tech is 4-1 versus spread in last five games, 3-0 versus spread on road, losing by 3 at Texas, 6 at West Virginia, winning at TCU- road team covered six of their seven Big X games. Big X home favorites of 7+ points are 4-7 versus spread.
•Notre Dame lost five of last six games, is 2-1 at home in Atlantic Coast Conference, losing by 7 to NC State, beating Duke/Virginia Tech- they're shooting 29.7% from arc in ACC games, getting to line least of any team. Virginia is 6-1 in ACC, 7-0 versus spread, with road wins at Florida St/NC State, loss at Duke by 4. Cavaliers force turnovers 22% of time in league play. ACC home dogs of 4 or less points are 1-7 against the spread.
•Creighton is 6-2 versus spread in Big East, 3-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 18-6-28-13 points. Bluejays make 42.4% of their 3's. St John's won last two games (Seton Hall/Butler) after 0-5 start; they've covered one of four as Big East dog, losing road games by 10-17-2 points, with lone road win at Butler. Red Storm's strength is interior defense, but the Jays shoot 3's. Big East double digit home favorites are 4-3 versus spread.
•Kentucky won its last five games with LSU, winning last three here in Baton Rouge by 4-26-24 points. Home teams are 4-1-1 versus the spread in Kentucky's South East Conference games; Wildcats won by 9 at Vanderbilt, lost by hoop at Arkansas in only road games. LSU won last three home games after losing to Tennessee in home opener; they went ahead after being down 19 at Alabama in last game, but lost by hoop. SEC home dogs of 4 or less points are 8-1-1.
•New Mexico is 6-1 in Mountain West Conference, 4-0 on road; they won by hoop at Colorado State Saturday without Kirk (check status). Utah State got beat at home by San Diego State in OT Saturday; Aggies lost last three games, are 2-5 in MWC, beat San Jose/Colorado St at home, losing to the Aztecs. Utah State is making 40.5% of its 3's, #1 in league. MWC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 5-7 versus spread.
•Cleveland State won five of last seven games, with all five wins by 10+ points; Vikings are making 39.2% from arc in league games, 38.7% for season- Horizon is much better league than Ohio Valley Conference. Eastern Illinois is 3-2 in last five games after a 1-9 skid; their last five games were all decided by 8 or less points. Panthers don't defend against 3's very well- teams are making 36.7% for season, #278 in country.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- KENTUCKY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KENTUCKY 63.3, OPPONENT 68.1.
-- VILLANOVA is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games this season.
The average score was VILLANOVA 80.4, OPPONENT 72.9.
-- NEW MEXICO is 19-6 (+12.4 Units) against the 1rst half line after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW MEXICO 35.3, OPPONENT 27.9.
-- MICHIGAN ST is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after 3 consecutive conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MICHIGAN ST 30.1, OPPONENT 26.7.
-- JOHN CALIPARI is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) after game - where they allowed a shooting percent of 33% or less as the coach of KENTUCKY.
The average score was CALIPARI 75.5, OPPONENT 64.2.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- IOWA is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 68.4, OPPONENT 62.5.
-- KANSAS ST is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS ST 65.6, OPPONENT 59.2.
-- E ILLINOIS is 6-25 (-21.5 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts since 1997.
The average score was E ILLINOIS 27.7, OPPONENT 33.1.
-- NOTRE DAME is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 26.3, OPPONENT 27.4.
-- JOHNNY JONES is 14-1 against the 1rst half line (+12.9 Units) versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was JONES 37.8, OPPONENT 29.9.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - A road team versus the money line (CLEVELAND ST) an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(46-16 since 1997.) (74.2%, +33.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +107.4
The average score in these games was: Team 72.1, Opponent 66.4 (Average point differential = +5.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2, -0.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-4, -4.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4, +2.2 units).
-- Play On - A home team where the line is +3 to -3 (NOTRE DAME) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 60 points or less.
(30-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (32-7 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.6
The average score in these games was: Team 69.5, Opponent 61.2 (Average point differential = +8.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 9 (24.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (61-47).
-- Play Against - Underdogs of 11 or more points versus the first half line (LOYOLA-IL) - good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's), off a home win against a conference rival against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite.
(30-8 since 1997.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 13.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 45.6, Opponent 24.9 (Average first half point differential = +20.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
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Tuesday's Match-ups
#515 MISSOURI @ #516 ARKANSAS
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Arkansas -5.5, Total: N/A) - Missouri boasts the highest-scoring trio in the SEC, but is struggling on the road in conference play. The Tigers look to snap a two-game road slide when they visit Arkansas on Tuesday. The Razorbacks are tough in their own building, taking Florida to overtime before knocking off Kentucky and then snapping a two-game slide over the weekend with an 86-67 demolition of Auburn at home.
Arkansas guard Rashad Madden put up a career-high 24 points Saturday and will try to keep up with Missouri’s Jabari Brown, Jordan Clarkson and Earnest Ross. That trio is averaging a combined 52.3 points and had 60 in Saturday’s 82-74 victory over South Carolina, during which the Tigers handed out a season-high 18 assists. “We have three guys that can really score the ball,” Missouri coach Frank Haith told reporters. “It takes time to tell those guys to share the ball with each other.”
•ABOUT MISSOURI (15-4 SU, 7-8-2 ATS, 3-3 SEC): The Tigers rank near the bottom of Division I with an average of 10.7 assists and Haith sees sharing the ball as a way his team can improve. “We have to keep coaching them,” he said. “It’s not just the passer’s willingness to pass the ball. It’s also the guys moving without the ball. I think when we emphasize that on film, we do a better job of moving around instead of watching the ball.” Missouri got 28 points from Brown at LSU on Jan. 21 but totaled just seven assists in the 77-71 setback.
•ABOUT ARKANSAS (13-6 SU, 9-7-0 ATS, 2-4 SEC): Madden is averaging 17.3 points in six SEC games but the key to Tuesday’s game could be forward Bobby Portis, who figures to have an advantage on the inside. The 6-10 freshman is averaging 14.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in the Razorbacks’ two SEC wins but 7.8 points and 6.3 boards in the four losses. Arkansas is not afraid to share the ball and leads the SEC with an average of 16.2 assists.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Razorbacks lead the SEC in scoring average at 82.7 points while Missouri sits fifth (74.8).... Arkansas leads the SEC in turnover margin - plus-6.37 - while the Tigers sit 12th at minus-1.32.... Brown is averaging 24.5 points on 62 percent shooting over the last four games.... The Tigers are 14-4 against the spread versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last three seasons.... The Razorbacks are 7-0 versus the spread in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARKANSAS covered the spread 508 times, while MISSOURI covered the spread 492 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARKANSAS won the game straight up 645 times, while MISSOURI won 317 times. In 1000 simulated games, MISSOURI covered the first half line 478 times, while ARKANSAS covered the first half line 477 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MISSOURI is 4-3 against the spread versus ARKANSAS since 1997.
--ARKANSAS is 5-2 straight up against MISSOURI since 1997.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MISSOURI is 4-3 versus the first half line when playing against ARKANSAS since 1997.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Tigers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MIZZ is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.
--MIZZ is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
--Under is 9-3 in MIZZ last 12 overall.
--ARK is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--Over is 7-0-1 in ARK last 8 Tue. games.
--Over is 4-0 in Razorbacks last 4 home games.
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#517 W VIRGINIA @ #518 BAYLOR
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Baylor -5.5, Total: N/A) - After its 88-62 victory over Texas Christian on Jan. 11, Baylor was No. 13 in the USA Today Coaches Poll and considered a strong contender to win the Big 12 title. Four consecutive losses later, the Bears are simply looking to regain respectability as they host another struggling team - West Virginia - on Tuesday. Baylor's losing streak is its longest since a six-game slide during the 2008-09 season, but coach Scott Drew remains optimistic with his sights squarely set on the big picture.
"At the end of day, we like this team, we're not going to give up, we're going to keep fighting," Drew told reporters after Saturday's 74-60 loss to Texas. "Last year, we were at this time 5-1 (in the Big 12). We thought everything was great and finished 9-9. ... We'd rather finish well than start well, so we'll see what we can do." Since winning their first two Big 12 games, the Mountaineers dropped four of their last five contests, including an 81-75 setback at No. 10 Oklahoma State on Saturday.
•ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (11-9 SU, 8-9-0 ATS, 3-4 Big 12): The Mountaineers played the Cowboys tough as the backcourt tandem of sophomore Eron Harris (21 points against Oklahoma State, team-best 17.6 per game) and junior Juwan Staten (19, 17.3) continues to carry the team. “It’s frustrating, but we’re close,” coach Bob Huggins told the Daily Athenaeum. “We’re real close to being really good. We’re a little short on the front line, but I think we’re close to being really good.” Sophomore guard Terry Henderson (12.3 points) recorded a career-high 28 points in an 87-81 victory over Texas Tech on Jan. 22, but scored eight and was 1-for-10 from the field Saturday.
•ABOUT BAYLOR (13-6 SU, 4-8-1 ATS, 1-5 Big 12): Reserve senior guard Gary Franklin, who led Baylor with 14 points against Texas, said there was a players-only meeting after the game as the Bears try to figure out how to turn their season around. Part of the struggle involves the offense, which averages 70.6 points in Big 12 games after scoring 78.8 in the first 13 contests and is shooting 39.9 percent in conference play - well below its 46.7 overall percentage. Senior forward Cory Jefferson leads Baylor in scoring (12.9 points per game) and rebounding (8.3), but those numbers dipped to 10.8 and 6.5 during the slide, which also included a home loss to No. 25 Oklahoma 66-64.
•PREGAME NOTES: Staten has scored 14 or more points in 12 straight games.... Baylor next plays at Oklahoma State on Saturday, followed by No. 7 Kansas on Feb. 4 and at No. 25 Oklahoma on Feb. 8.... West Virginia is 5-1 all-time in games played in Texas, with an 80-60 loss at Baylor on Feb. 13, 2013, the only blemish.... The Bears are 1-9 against the spread versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... The Mountaineers are 8-19 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the spread 627 times, while BAYLOR covered the spread 373 times. *EDGE against the spread =W VIRGINIA. In 1000 simulated games, BAYLOR won the game straight up 537 times, while W VIRGINIA won 427 times. In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the first half line 563 times, while BAYLOR covered the first half line 392 times. *EDGE against first half line =W VIRGINIA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BAYLOR is 2-1 against the spread versus W VIRGINIA since 1997.
--BAYLOR is 3-0 straight up against W VIRGINIA since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--W VIRGINIA is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against BAYLOR since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WVU is 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 Tue. games.
--Over is 10-1 in WVU last 11 vs. Big 12.
--Under is 19-7-1 in WVU last 27 Tue. games.
--BAY is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big 12.
--BAY is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Under is 4-1 in BAY last 5 Tuesday games.
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#519 MICHIGAN ST @ #520 IOWA
(TV: 7:00 PM ET, ESPN - Line: Iowa -5, Total: N/A) - Sixth-ranked Michigan State will once again be down two starters when it visits No. 12 Iowa on Tuesday and attempts to halt the Hawkeyes’ 20-game home winning streak. The Spartans were the last road team to win at Carver-Hawkeye Arena when they were victorious 12-plus months ago but repeating the task will be difficult with center Adreian Payne (foot) and forward Branden Dawson (hand) sidelined. Iowa’s two Big Ten losses are to ranked teams Wisconsin and Michigan.
The Hawkeyes are expecting a fierce battle with the shorthanded Spartans, who are receiving superb production from guard Gary Harris – 74 points over the past three games to raise his team-best average to 18.8. “They’ve got to be one of the best teams in the country and they’ve done it with Payne out, which is impressive,” Iowa coach Fran McCaffery told reporters. Michigan State had an 11-game winning streak snapped by Michigan on Saturday but coach Tom Izzo applauded his club’s effort and intensity while playing without their top two post performers.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (18-2 SU, 10-7-2 ATS, 7-1 Big Ten): Point guard Keith Appling is dealing with wrist and back injuries but still recorded his first career double-double with 10 points and 10 assists in the loss to Michigan. Appling was just 3-of-11 shooting and didn’t want to use his injuries as a crutch despite Izzo telling reporters the wrist ailment is a big hindrance. “I can’t even shoot. I couldn’t participate in any shooting drills in shootaround,” said Appling, who averages 15.4 points and 4.9 assists. “But when I step on the basketball court, that’s not something I can use when we don’t come with a victory. To me, that’s a cop-out.”
•ABOUT IOWA (16-4 SU, 12-6-0 ATS, 5-2 Big Ten): Right as forward Aaron White seemed to have solved his consistency issues with four straight outings of 17 or more points, he tallied a season-low five against Northwestern. It marked the seventh time that White has scored in single digits this season despite being the team’s second-leading scorer at 13.7 points, trailing guard Roy Devyn Marble’s 16.1. “He has the green light, so he can shoot whenever he wants,” McCaffery said of White. “He’ll figure it out and I trust him to do so.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Michigan State has won 11 of the past 12 meetings, including both matchups last season.... Marble missed last season’s regular-season clash with an ankle injury and was held to eight points when the teams met in the Big Ten postseason tournament.... The Spartans committed a season-low five turnovers in the loss to Michigan and average just 11.2 per game.... The Hawkeyes are 16-4 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.... Michigan State is 6-0 against the spread in road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST covered the spread 519 times, while IOWA covered the spread 445 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA won the game straight up 598 times, while MICHIGAN ST won 370 times. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST covered the first half line 530 times, while IOWA covered the first half line 470 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN ST is 19-13 against the spread versus IOWA since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 24-8 straight up against IOWA since 1997.
--15 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 18-12 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA since 1997.
--13 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Iowa.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MSU is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Under is 8-2 in MSU last 10 road games.
--Under is 32-15 in MSU last 47 Tue. games.
--IOWA is 18-6 ATS in their last 24 vs. Big Ten.
--IOWA is 37-14 ATS in their last 51 home games.
--Over is 8-3 in IOWA last 11 home games.
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#521 SMU @ #522 S FLORIDA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN News - Line: SMU -7, Total: N/A) - Southern Methodist is on a roll in American Athletic Conference play and will look for its sixth consecutive win when it visits league rival South Florida on Tuesday. The Mustangs entered conference play with plenty of confidence at 10-2 and their only blemishes since are losses to undefeated Cincinnati and No. 9 Louisville. SMU leading scorer Nic Moore led the way with a career-high 28 points last time out as the Mustangs disposed of Houston for their sixth win in seven games.
The Bulls have enjoyed nowhere near the same level of conference success as Tuesday's opponent, struggling mightily with one win in seven tilts against American adversaries. South Florida, which has dropped four in a row and is 2-8 after an 8-2 start to the season, just completed a three game stretch all against ranked opponents with losses to No. 15 Cincinnati, No. 9 Louisville and No. 22 Memphis. The Bulls were done in by turnovers against the Tigers Sunday, and though the stat sheet officially charged them with 15, coach Stan Heath thought that seemed generous, telling the Tampa Tribune, "I could have sworn it was 25."
•ABOUT SOUTHERN METHODIST (16-4 SU, 11-5-0 ATS, 5-2 AAC): Legendary coach Larry Brown, in his second season at the helm of the program, has the Mustangs thinking big. After a 15-17 mark last year, Brown has an eye on the postseason, telling the Dallas Morning News, "I had never coached a team that didn't make the tournament (until last year). This year, we feel confident with whoever is out there doing the things needed to win." SMU leans heavily on its defense, which limits opponents to an AAC-best 36.2 percent from the field that ranks second in the nation.
•ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (10-10 SU, 6-11-0 ATS, 1-6 AAC): The Bulls, who score an AAC-worst 66.5 points per game, could be in for it against SMU's staunch defense. South Florida hasn't topped the 60-point mark since its lone conference win Jan. 9 at Temple and excluding that relative outburst in which it scored 82 points, is averaging a mere 57.3 points against AAC teams. Victor Rudd is the Bulls' biggest weapon, with averages of 14.4 points and 6.9 rebounds leading the team.
•PREGAME NOTES: SMU is 3-2 all-time against South Florida, including a 71-54 decision in Dallas Jan. 15.... The Bulls rank last in the AAC in 3-point field goal percentage (26.1) and 3-point field goal percentage defense (37.9).... The Mustangs are shooting 48.7 percent from the field, while limiting opponents to 36.2 percent - both conference bests.... USF is 4-14 versus the spread in home games versus dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game since 1997.... SMU is 6-0 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SMU covered the spread 598 times, while S FLORIDA covered the spread 364 times. *EDGE against the spread =SMU. In 1000 simulated games, SMU won the game straight up 808 times, while S FLORIDA won 168 times. In 1000 simulated games, SMU covered the first half line 606 times, while S FLORIDA covered the first half line 394 times. *EDGE against first half line =SMU.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--S FLORIDA is 2-1 against the spread versus SMU since 1997.
--S FLORIDA is 2-1 straight up against SMU since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SMU is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against S FLORIDA since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SMU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--SMU is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Under is 5-1 in SMU last 6 road games.
--USF is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games.
--USF is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Under is 49-19-1 in USF last 69 overall.
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#525 TEXAS TECH @526 KANSAS ST
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Big 12 Network, ESPN3 - Line: Kansas State -9, Total: N/A) - Kansas State comes into Tuesday’s home game against Texas Tech riding its first losing streak since November, albeit a two-game slide. But the Wildcats – who fell to Iowa State on Saturday – cannot afford to continue stumbling with contests looming against Texas and back-to-back matchups against two ranked squads (Kansas and Baylor) in the first 15 days of February. Texas Tech has dropped two in a row and seven of its past 10 contests, leading head coach Tubby Smith to admit to reporters Saturday, “It was disappointing. I was discouraged.”
Texas Tech is eighth in the Big 12 in scoring, not a good trend considering the Wildcats allow a conference-low 61.3 points per game. Kansas State will look for more production from forward Thomas Gipson, who scored just four points in the loss to Iowa State after recording 24 points and 20 points in his previous two games. The Red Raiders need a big game from forward Jaye Crockett, who leads the conference in field-goal percentage at 56 percent and is 12th in the league in scoring (14.3) and 15th in rebounding (6.2).
•ABOUT TEXAS TECH (10-10 SU, 10-7-0 ATS, 2-5 Big 12): The Red Raiders beat ranked Baylor and Texas Christian in a four-day span in mid-January, but gave up 87 points in a loss to West Virginia before trailing the entire way in Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma. Texas Tech allowed the Sooners to hit 50 percent of their shots Saturday, the second consecutive game opponents have hit at least half of their attempts. Jordan Tolbert scored 14 points against Oklahoma, surpassing 900 for his career (903).
•ABOUT KANSAS STATE (14-6 SU, 12-5-1 ATS, 4-3 Big 12): Freshman Marcus Foster scored a team-best 20 points in the Iowa State loss, and his three 3-pointers gives him the school record for most 3s by a freshman (44). Foster leads the Wildcats in scoring at 14 points but has experienced the typical ups and downs of a first-year player, posting games of 7, 18, 15, 8 and 20 points in his past five outings. The Wildcats have scored at least 70 points in eight of their past 11 games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kansas State has outrebounded 14 of its past 16 opponents.... The Red Raiders lead the Big 12 in free-throw percentage at 74.9.... The Wildcats have won eight of their past 10 matchups against the Red Raiders and lead the all-time series 18-12.... Texas Tech is 2-12 versus the spread versus good defensive teams - allowing less than 64 points/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... Kansas State is 8-21 against the spread versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS TECH covered the spread 665 times, while KANSAS ST covered the spread 315 times. *EDGE against the spread =TEXAS TECH. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS ST won the game straight up 577 times, while TEXAS TECH won 398 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS TECH covered the first half line 643 times, while KANSAS ST covered the first half line 315 times. *EDGE against first half line =TEXAS TECH.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS ST is 11-9 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH since 1997.
--KANSAS ST is 11-9 straight up against TEXAS TECH since 1997.
--7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--KANSAS ST is 15-5 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS TECH since 1997.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Red Raiders are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Red Raiders are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Kansas St.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TTU is 7-17 ATS in their last 24 road games.
--Under is 7-1 in TTU last 8 road games.
--Under is 10-4-1 in TTU last 15 overall.
--KSU is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Under is 16-5 in KSU last 21 overall.
--Under is 13-3 in KSU last 16 home games.
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#527 VIRGINIA @ #528 NOTRE DAME
(TIME: 9:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Virginia -3, Total: N/A) - Surprising Virginia will try to remain on the heels of Atlantic Coast Conference leader Syracuse as it begins a key two-game road trip at slumping Notre Dame on Tuesday night. It's the first-ever meeting between the teams in ACC play but the schools have played six times previously with the Cavaliers holding a 5-1 edge, including a 68-67 victory in the only previous meeting at the Joyce Center in 1991. Virginia has won five in a row over the Fighting Irish, including an 81-76 win in the 1992 NIT championship game, the last time the two schools met.
Notre Dame, which has lost five of its last six games, returns home after losing back-to-back road games at Florida State and Wake Forest. The Fighting Irish are just 3-5 since star guard Jerian Grant, a first team preseason all-ACC pick who was averaging a team-high 19 points and 6.2 assists, was dismissed from the team because of an academic issue. However, Notre Dame is 3-1 at home during that span including a 79-77 upset of Duke.
•ABOUT VIRGINIA (15-5 SU, 10-6-0 ATS, 6-1 ACC): The Cavaliers' slogan is "Embrace The Pace," which along with some good defense has enabled the team to rank in the top 15 nationally in seven defensive categories, including points per game (56.5) and field goal percentage (37.8). Returning all-ACC picks Joe Harris (11.6) and Akil Mitchell (6.7), who is averaging 8.4 rebounds in ACC play, lead the Cavaliers. Sophomore guard Malcolm Brogdon (11.4), who missed the entire 2012-13 season with a foot injury, has scored in double figures in all seven conference games.
•ABOUT NOTRE DAME (11-9 SU, 6-11-1 ATS, 2-5 ACC): As expected, the Irish have struggled since the huge loss of Grant but all five ACC defeats have been by eight points or less. Center Garrick Sherman is averaging career bests in points (15.2) and rebounds (8.3) and has six double-doubles, including three in ACC play. Guard Eric Atkins is averaging 14.2 points and five assists and has scored in double figures in nine straight games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Harris leads all active ACC players with 226 career 3-point field goals.... Virginia is 31-2 when holding opponents under 50 points in the Tony Bennett era, including 6-1 this season.... Notre Dame F Austin Burgett, who started three games and is averaging 3.5 points and 2.4 rebounds, is scheduled to undergo an outpatient cardiac procedure on Tuesday that the school said will sideline him for seven to 10 days.... The Cavaliers are 8-20 versus the spread in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games since 1997.... The Fighting Irish are 29-47 against the spread off a road loss against a conference rival since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NOTRE DAME covered the spread 586 times, while VIRGINIA covered the spread 382 times. *EDGE against the spread =NOTRE DAME. In 1000 simulated games, NOTRE DAME won the game straight up 483 times, while VIRGINIA won 481 times. In 1000 simulated games, NOTRE DAME covered the first half line 570 times, while VIRGINIA covered the first half line 430 times. *EDGE against first half line =NOTRE DAME.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--VIRG is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--VIRG is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Under is 4-1 in VIRG last 5 Tuesday games.
--ND is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--ND is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--ND is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
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#529 ST. JOHN'S @ #530 CREIGHTON
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Creighton -12.5, Total: N/A) - Doug McDermott can continue his assault on the Division I record books on Tuesday when No. 20 Creighton hosts St. John’s. McDermott, the second-leading scorer in the country at 24.3 points, will pass Lehigh’s Daren Queenan (2,703 points) with his first two points and move into 20th place on the all-time scoring list. The two-time All-American is also within range of catching Northeastern’s Reggie Lewis (2,708) and Loyola Marymount’s Hank Gathers (2,723) as well if he meets his scoring average.
Despite a rare low-scoring game in his last time out – he scored 14 in a 13-point home win over Georgetown on Saturday – McDermott and his Bluejays collected their 12th victory in 13 tries to remain atop the Big East. The Red Storm, who began Big East play with five straight losses – including the last two by a combined three points – earned their third consecutive victory with Saturday’s 69-52 triumph at Butler. St. John’s, which could match a season high with its fourth win in a row, has claimed consecutive road victories only once in the last three seasons.
•ABOUT ST. JOHN’S (12-8 SU, 6-12-0 ATS, 2-5 Big East): The Red Storm managed their first win outside New York City limits by handing Butler a 69-52 home loss – its worst home loss since the 1992-93 season. St. John’s previous three league games had been decided by a total of four points, including a two-point loss at DePaul and double-overtime home setback versus Providence. "It's no secret that we've struggled to close out games. I thought our team exhibited poise and composure down the stretch (against Butler)," St. John's coach Steve Lavin told the school’s official website.
•ABOUT CREIGHTON (17-3 SU, 13-5-0 ATS, 7-1 Big East): Mostly on the strength of 12 3-pointers – including a school record-tying nine in last Monday’s 96-68 rout at then-No. 5 Villanova – Ethan Wragge was named Big East Player of the Week. McDermott turned in his second-lowest scoring performance of the season, but still recorded his fourth double-double of the campaign and 34th of his career against Georgetown. “They have the best player (McDermott) and best shooter (Wragge) in the country, and they’re two different people,” Hoyas coach John Thompson III told reporters following the game.
•PREGAME NOTES: McDermott needs 12 more rebounds to become the 11th player in Division I history with at least 2,700 points and 1,000 boards for his career.... St. John’s owns a plus-four rebound differential during its winning streak after getting outboarded by five per game during its five-game slide.... Wragge, who became the second player in school history with at least 300 career 3-pointers, has knocked down at least one in 16 straight games.... The Red Strom is 0-6 against the spread versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 72% of their attempts this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON covered the spread 597 times, while ST JOHNS covered the spread 403 times. *EDGE against the spread =CREIGHTON. In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON won the game straight up 884 times, while ST JOHNS won 102 times. In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON covered the first half line 508 times, while ST JOHNS covered the first half line 492 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SJU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big East.
--SJU is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Under is 8-2 in SJU last 10 road games.
--CRE is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--CRE is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East.
--CRE is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
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#531 KENTUCKY @ #532 LSU
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Kentucky -3, Total: N/A) - Weather usually doesn't impact an indoor basketball game but it could be a factor in Tuesday's scheduled SEC meeting between No. 11 Kentucky and host LSU. The Baton Rouge area is bracing for a severe winter storm that has already forced classes to be cancelled for Tuesday and a decision on whether to play the game is expected to be made during the late-morning hours. Kentucky, which was scheduled to fly to Baton Rouge on Monday night, seems to be back on track following its humbling overtime loss to Arkansas two weeks ago, winning by eight, 17 and then 25 points in its last three games.
LSU is coming off a two-point loss to Alabama after trailing by as many as 19 early in the second half. The Tigers pulled a similar futile comeback in their last meeting with Kentucky a year ago but to get over the jump against a team the caliber of the Wildcats, LSU will likely need huge games from forward Johnny O’Bryant III and guard Andre Stringer. O’Bryant had a double-double against Kentucky in their last meeting, one of his 15 last season.
•ABOUT KENTUCKY (15-4 SU, 8-7-2 ATS, 5-1 SEC): Julius Randle will be a great matchup for O’Bryant as both have similar 6-9, 250-pound frames and know how to use their bodies to create space. Randle is averaging double figures in points and rebounds and averaged 13.5 points and 10 rebounds in two games last week to earn SEC Freshman of the Week honors. The Wildcats are crossing their fingers that 7-footer Willie Cauley-Stein can continue playing the way he did Saturday against Georgia, producing eight points, six blocks and six steals for his best all-around performance of the season.
•ABOUT LSU (12-6 SU, 4-7-3 ATS, 3-3 SEC): The Tigers have their own top-flight freshman forward in Jordan Mickey, who is a close second to O’Bryant (14.6 points, 7.3 rebounds) in points (13) and rebounds (7.2) and could force the Wildcats to quickly summon 6-8 forward Alex Poythress off the bench in place of the slower Cauley-Stein. The only other player averaging more than four rebounds for the Tigers is 6-9 freshman Jarell Martin. LSU is 6-1 this season when Martin scores in double figures, with the only loss coming in overtime on Jan. 15 against Mississippi.
•PREGAME NOTES: Poythress is averaging 6.7 points overall and 10.7 in conference play.... The Wildcats have four players averaging double figures in scoring and they’re all freshmen.... LSU G Anthony Hickey has reached double figures in scoring in seven of 18 games this season after hitting that mark in 20 of 29 last season.... The Wildcats are 4-14 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last two seasons.... The Tigers are 9-1 against the spread versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, KENTUCKY covered the spread 497 times, while LSU covered the spread 470 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KENTUCKY won the game straight up 601 times, while LSU won 363 times. In 1000 simulated games, KENTUCKY covered the first half line 527 times, while LSU covered the first half line 473 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KENTUCKY is 10-9 against the spread versus LSU since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 15-4 straight up against LSU since 1997.
--7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--LSU is 10-9 versus the first half line when playing against KENTUCKY since 1997.
--8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Louisiana State.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Louisiana State.
--Road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UK is 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 road games.
--Under is 20-9-1 in UK last 30 road games.
--Under is 17-8-3 in UK last 28 Tue. games.
--LSU is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--LSU is 2-7-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
--Over is 6-1 in LSU last 7 Tuesday games.
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