STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/21/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 1/21/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Tuesday's Notebook
•Temple lost eight of last nine games, is 0-5 in AAC, losing road games by 5-2-10 points, despite Owls making 44.4% from arc in league games. Connecticut won three of last four games, losing at home to Louisville in last game after coach Ollie got tossed in second half. Huskies are 7-1 against teams outside top 100, with seven of nine wins by 12+ points. AAC double digit home favorites are 4-2 versus spread.
•Home side won both LSU-Missouri games LY; Missouri lost 73-70 in its first visit to Baton Rouge as an SEC member. Mizzou is 4-3 in its last seven games after 10-0 start; they split first two SEC road games, with two games decided by total of seven points. LSU is 2-3 in its last five games, 3-4 versus top 100 teams; they're making only 27.8% from arc in SEC games. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 4-2 versus spread.
•Kansas State won six of last seven games with Texas, sweeping three by 26-12-17 points LY; Wildcats won four of last five visits to Austin. Big X single digit home favorites are 3-4 versus spread. Longhorns won three in a row by 3-10-11 points. K-State won 12 of last 13 games with only loss at Kansas; Wildcats won by 18 at TCU in only other road games. Texas won two of three Big X road games, beating Texas Tech/Iowa State.
•Michigan State (-2.5) won 73-56 at Indiana Jan 4, ending 3-game skid in series; Hoosiers' win here LY ended 7+-game skid in the Breslin Center. Indiana beat Wisconsin last week, then lost to Northwestern; they're an erratic 12-6 team, 2-3 in league- four of their six losses are by 7 or less points. Michigan State is 6-0 at home in league, but both wins at home came in OT. Big Dozen home favorites of 8+ points are 9-2 versus spread.
•Wright State won last three games with Milwaukee by 24-2-15 points; they won last eight series games played here, with four of last seven by 10+ points. Third game in five nights for Raider squad that won by 3 at Cleveland State Sunday, after losing at home to Green Bay, its one loss in three league home games. Horizon home favorites of 5+ points are 9-2 versus spread. Panthers lost at Valparaiso by 13, its one loss in three Horizon road games.
•Evansville won five of last six games with Missouri State; three of their last four series wins came in OT; Aces won two of last three games after losing nine of previous 11 before that- they're 1-2 on Valley road, with a 28-point loss at Drake and OT loss at Illinois State. Bears lost leading scorer Mitchell for year, have now lost last three games. MVC home favorites are 10-5 versus spread, 4-2 if giving 7 or less points.
•Notre Dame is 2-3 in its first ACC season, losing both road games by 5 at Georgia Tech, 8 at Maryland; Irish are making only 31.8% from arc in its ACC games, #9 out of 15 teams. Florida State won seven of its last nine games, with both losses to Virginia; they're holding ACC foes to 38% inside arc, #1 in league- Irish will need to make some 3's to win. ACC home favorites of 7+ points are 9-6 versus spread.
•SMU is playing third game in four days after beating Hofstra in makeup game Sunday night; Mustangs are 2-0 in AAC home games, winning by 9-17 points- they're turning ball over 21.7% of time despite playing 2nd slowest tempo in AAC. Rutgers lost three of last four games, losing its first two AAC road games by 20-22 points. AAC double digit home favorites are 4-2 against the spread.
•Boston College won last three games with Georgia Tech by 4-2-20, with Eagles winning last four series games played here, by 1-11-4-2 points- they've lost nine of last ten D-I games, with only win at Virginia Tech by 3. Tech lost five of last seven games; they're 0-2 on ACC road, losing by 16 at Maryland, 22 at Duke. This is their first road game in two weeks. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 4-6 versus spread.
•Road team won both Texas A&M-Kentucky games LY; Aggies won by 12 at Rupp, are 3-1 in SEC this year, losing in OT at Mississippi State in last game after winning by 1 at Tennessee in other road game. Kentucky won its first two SEC home games by 22-9 points; they're holding teams to 26% from arc in SEC games. Aggies are making 44.1% from arc, #1 in league. SEC home favorites of 9+ points are 5-3 versus spread.
•Butler is 1-5 in its first Big East season, with four of six games going to OT; they lost by 11 at Xavier, 28 at Creighton in two league road tilts. Big East foes are shooting 55% inside arc versus Bulldogs. Providence beat Creighton by 13 at home Saturday, its third win in row; three of their last six games also went to overtime. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 5-4 against the spread.
•Northwestern won two of last three games, allowing 43-47 points; they are 0-4 when allowing more than 49 versus league opponents, with all four losses by 14+ points. Wildcats lost five of last six games with Purdue, but they beat Boilers 75-60 here LY. Big Dozen home underdogs are 5-4 against spread. Purdue won last three games by 6-1-8 points, upsetting Illinois in Champaign; they split other two road games, at West Virginia/Minnesota.
•New Mexico is 4-0 versus Boise State in league play, winning by 15-10 in Pit; Lobos are 4-1 in league but are 0-2 as home favorites, losing by 3 to UNLV in last home game, after beating Colorado State by 7. Broncos are 3-2 in Mountain West, with all five games decided by 9 or less points; they split two road games, losing by 3 in San Diego, winning at Nevada. Mountain West home favorites of 10 or less points are 5-9 versus spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- CONNECTICUT is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 72.1, OPPONENT 59.4.
-- NORTHWESTERN is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NORTHWESTERN 51.6, OPPONENT 58.0.
-- TEXAS is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
The average score was TEXAS 39.7, OPPONENT 34.3.
-- FLORIDA ST is 34-9 UNDER (+24.1 Units) the 1rst half total off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1997.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 30.3, OPPONENT 30.9.
-- LEONARD HAMILTON is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers as the coach of FLORIDA ST.
The average score was HAMILTON 61.7, OPPONENT 66.5.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- MICHIGAN ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was MICHIGAN ST 80.4, OPPONENT 60.7.
-- NORTHWESTERN is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NORTHWESTERN 48.5, OPPONENT 59.5.
-- TEXAS is 11-2 against the 1rst half line (+8.8 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was TEXAS 38.9, OPPONENT 32.6.
-- NOTRE DAME is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 24.9, OPPONENT 26.3.
-- JAMIE DIXON is 15-35 ATS (-23.5 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was DIXON 69.6, OPPONENT 62.3.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (KANSAS ST) - poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less.
(27-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 69.5, Opponent 69.9 (Average point differential = -0.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (42.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (63-35).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MISSOURI) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after a combined score of 115 points or less.
(32-7 since 1997.) (82.1%, +24.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (14-27)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.3
The average score in these games was: Team 72.4, Opponent 73.2 (Average point differential = -0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (37.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
-- Play On - An underdog vs. the 1rst half line (NORTHWESTERN) - good FT shooting team (69-73%) against an average FT shooting team (65-69%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less.
(31-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.9, Opponent 30.6 (Average first half point differential = +0.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (55-32).
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Tuesday's Match-ups
#511 TEMPLE @ #512 CONNECTICUT
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, CBS SN - Line: Connecticut -12, Total: N/A) - The inaugural season of American Athletic Conference has not been kind to Temple, which will look to snap a six-game losing streak Tuesday at Connecticut. As if losing their first five conference games wasn't enough, the Owls dropped its most recent game to former Atlantic 10 rival La Salle in a Big 5 matchup. "We have a tough week coming up next week at UConn and Cincinnati at home," head coach Fran Dunphy told the media after Saturday's loss, which was the Owls' first in three games against Big 5 opponents. "We just try to get better every single time."
The Huskies have had their share of trouble in the AAC, most recently in Saturday's 12-point home loss against then-No.14 Louisville. Kevin Ollie's team also dropped a pair of road games at Houston and Southern Methodist to open conference play, but has winnable games with Temple and Rutgers before closing the month with a rematch versus Houston. "It came down to them outrebounding us by 15," Ollie told the media after the loss to the Cardinals. "We've been doing a good job the last three games getting those timely rebounds. ... We didn't do that tonight. When you play against good teams like this, we're going to have to rebound."
•ABOUT TEMPLE (5-11 SU, 6-7-1 ATS, 0-5 AAC): The Owls have been without third-leading scorer Will Cummings, who averages 16.1 points, 4.1 assists and 3.2 rebounds, for the past two games, and Dunphy isn't sure when he will get the junior guard back. "He is one of our starters and one of our leading scorers, so we do miss him," Dunphy said. "He's cleared to play medically, it's just how he feels. Hopefully we'll be able to get him on Tuesday, it's sort of day-to-day at this point." Cummings, whose absence left the Owls with just seven players against La Salle, sustained a concussion Jan.9 but returned to play in in the next game.
•ABOUT CONNECTICUT (14-4 SU, 7-9-0 ATS, 2-3 AAC): Ollie was ejected from a game for the first time in his two seasons with the Huskies after incurring a pair of technical fouls against Louisville. "In that situation, I lost my composure," said Ollie, who protested a non-call. "I don't know if it was warranted or not warranted. I thought they gave me the first T (technical) and I didn't really have a chance to do anything and then the second one came. I thought it was a foul." Ollie's former coach and predecessor, Jim Calhoun, was last ejected from a game in 2007.
•PREGAME NOTES: Temple holds a 4-3 edge in a series that was last contested in 1965.... Shabazz Napier had a season-high 30 points in the loss to Louisville.... Dalton Pepper leads the Owls with 17.3 points per game.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT covered the spread 507 times, while TEMPLE covered the spread 468 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT won the game straight up 832 times, while TEMPLE won 146 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the first half line 512 times, while CONNECTICUT covered the first half line 447 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEM is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games.
--Under is 9-1 in TEM last 10 road games.
--Under is 15-7-1 in TEM last 23 Tue. games.
--UCONN is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss.
--Over is 7-1 in UCONN last 8 Tue. games.
--Under is 7-2 in UCONN last 9 home games.
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#513 MISSOURI @ #514 LSU
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: LSU -5, Total: N/A) - Missouri and Louisiana State share two qualities: high expectations and inconsistency. Both look to shed the latter and strive to live up to the former when they meet in a Southeastern Conference clash Tuesday at LSU. It's a matchup of contrasting strengths, with Missouri boasting a trio of 6-5 guards who combine for 51.3 points per game and LSU leaning on a strong frontcourt led by Johnny O'Bryant (14.3 points, 7.6 rebounds).
It's the third game in six days for Missouri, which followed a disappointing 78-75 loss at Vanderbilt on Thursday with a convincing 68-47 home win over Alabama on Saturday. "We've been around for a few years so we know that's the grind," Missouri guard Jabari Brown told reporters. "You're not going to win every game and you might have some tough losses. The good teams are able to bounce back and we're trying to be a great team." LSU also had a bounce-back win Saturday, routing visiting Vanderbilt 81-58 after an 88-74 overtime loss at Mississippi on Wednesday.
•ABOUT MISSOURI (14-3 SU, 7-7-1 ATS, 2-2 SEC): The Tigers turned in a stellar defensive effort against the Crimson Tide and needs more of that kind of play at the defensive end to claw back into the SEC title hunt. Missouri typically doesn't have trouble at the offensive end thanks to versatile guards Brown (18.8 points), Jordan Clarkson (18.6 points) and Earnest Ross (13.9 points, 6.5 rebounds). Clarkson bruised his wrist and hip on a hard fall against Alabama but expects to play.
•ABOUT LSU (11-5 SU, 4-7-1 ATS, 2-2 SEC): O'Bryant is a handful at 6-9, 256 pounds, and will likely see Missouri throw several different defenders at him. Freshman Jordan Mickey (13.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.6 blocks) also is a force in the post at both ends and could help neutralize the ability of Missouri's guards to drive into the paint. LSU's guards also are active on defense, as the Tigers rank seventh nationally with 9.4 steals per game.
•PREGAME NOTES: Missouri (38.4) and LSU (38.5) rank first and second in the SEC in opponents' field-goal percentage.... Brown and Clarkson each have scored in double figures in all 17 of Missouri's games, the longest streaks to start a season by a Tiger since Kareem Rush did it in 21 straight to begin the 2000-01 campaign.... LSU is 10-1 when leading at halftime but only 1-4 when trailing at the break.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MISSOURI covered the spread 650 times, while LSU covered the spread 318 times. *EDGE against the spread =MISSOURI. In 1000 simulated games, MISSOURI won the game straight up 509 times, while LSU won 455 times. In 1000 simulated games, MISSOURI covered the first half line 609 times, while LSU covered the first half line 391 times. *EDGE against first half line =MISSOURI.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LSU is 2-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI since 1997.
--LSU is 1-1 straight up against MISSOURI since 1997.
--LSU is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against MISSOURI since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MIZZ is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games.
--MIZZ is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 9-1 in MIZZ last 10 overall.
--LSU is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--LSU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Under is 42-20 in LSU last 62 home games.
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#515 KANSAS ST @ #516 TEXAS
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Texas -5, Total: N/A) - Texas continues a grueling stretch when it hosts Kansas State on Tuesday, and Javan Felix and his teammates are brimming with confidence. "We feel we're as good as anybody when we put our best on the floor," the sophomore guard told reporters following an 86-76 victory over then-No. 8 Iowa State on Saturday. This is the second contest of a seven-game stretch which requires the Longhorns to face four ranked teams and the Wildcats - one spot outside the USA Today Top 25 Coaches Poll - twice.
While Texas has won three straight following an 0-2 start to its Big 12 season, Kansas State is coming off Saturday's 78-56 romp over West Virginia as it continues to win games with a stifling defense en route to a 4-1 mark in conference play. The Wildcats held 13 of their last 17 opponents to their season low in points and are 9-0 when holding teams to fewer than 60 this season. “You want to be solid on both ends,” coach Bruce Weber told the Topeka Capital-Journal. “The best teams do both."
•ABOUT KANSAS STATE (14-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 4-1 Big 12): The Wildcats' rotation has gotten deeper with the emergence of 6-5 junior forward Nino Williams, who has recorded all three of his double-figure scoring games over the last five contests. Williams' minutes could increase if he learns to stay out of foul trouble - he has been disqualified twice this year and has recorded three or four fouls in his last seven games while averaging only 15.9 minutes during that span. Freshman guard Marcus Foster (team-leading 14 points per game) made seven of his 13 attempts from 3-point range in the last two games and scored 15 points in only 13 minutes against West Virginia.
•ABOUT TEXAS (14-4 SU, 8-7-0 ATS, 3-2 Big 12): The Longhorns, who could provide Kansas State a challenge as they average 79.4 points in conference play, are led by Jonathan Holmes. The 6-8 junior forward leads the team in scoring (13.1 points per game) while contributing 7.2 rebounds and posting solid shooting percentages from the field (52.8), 3-point range (39.1) and free throw line (82.1). Sophomore center Cameron Ridley (10.9 points, team-best 7.6 rebounds) could also make life difficult for Kansas State.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Big 12 boasts five teams in the USA Today poll - Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Baylor and Oklahoma - to match the Big Ten for most by a conference.... Texas was 8-10 after 18 games en route to a 16-18 season in 2012-13.... Kansas State has won seven of the last 10 meetings, including three of the last four at the Erwin Center.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS covered the spread 528 times, while KANSAS ST covered the spread 446 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS won the game straight up 680 times, while KANSAS ST won 289 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS covered the first half line 527 times, while KANSAS ST covered the first half line 473 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS ST is 12-7 against the spread versus TEXAS since 1997.
--KANSAS ST is 11-9 straight up against TEXAS since 1997.
--7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--KANSAS ST is 11-9 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS since 1997.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wildcats are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
--Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Texas.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Texas.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--KSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12.
--KSU is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Under is 15-4 in KSU last 19 overall.
--Over is 8-2 in TEX last 10 overall.
--Under is 9-3 in TEX last 12 Tue. games.
--Over is 11-4 in TEX last 15 home games.
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#517 INDIANA @ #518 MICHIGAN ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Michigan State -12.5, Total: N/A) - Third-ranked Michigan State has sealed the best start in program history and now looks to complete a regular-season sweep of Indiana when the Hoosiers visit East Lansing for Tuesday’s Big Ten matchup. The first-place Spartans have won 10 consecutive games since their lone defeat and one of the victories was an impressive 73-56 road win over Indiana. The Hoosiers are struggling during a rebuilding campaign and suffered a dismal 54-47 loss to Northwestern on Saturday.
Spartans guard Gary Harris scored a career-high 26 points in the win over the Hoosiers on Jan. 4 and the sophomore had another big outing last Saturday against Illinois when he scored 23 points in a 78-62 victory. Indiana’s sub-par showing against Northwestern – the Hoosiers shot a porous 25 percent from the field – was doubly painful coming just four days after a big upset of then-No. 3 Wisconsin. “We actually took a step back now,” said guard Stanford Robinson after the contest, “and so we have to take a couple steps forward just to catch up to where we were.”
•ABOUT INDIANA (12-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS, 2-3 Big Ten): The Hoosiers have three double-digit scorers in guard Yogi Ferrell (17.4), forward Noah Vonleh (12.4 points, team-best 9.2 rebounds) and forward Will Sheehey (10.4) but aren’t coming close to meeting coach Tom Crean’s expectations. “I try to understand more than ever that you coach potential during practice, you coach performance during the game and you try to give your team every possible chance to win, whether people understand it or not,” Crean said after the Northwestern loss. “You’re trying to get your team – and I’m with this team every day so I have an idea of what it looks like.”
•ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (17-1 SU, 10-5-2 ATS, 6-0 Big Ten): The Spartans haven’t missed a beat with center Adreian Payne (16.2 points, 7.7 rebounds) about to miss his fourth consecutive game with an ankle injury and Harris views his loss as a blessing in disguise. “We learned to play without him,” said Harris, who averages a team-best 17.9 points while accumulating a team-leading 29 steals. “Some other guys stepped up. We’re building a team.” Point guard Keith Appling (16.1 points, team-best 4.6 assists) and forward Branden Dawson (10.1 points, team-leading 8.7 rebounds) are also playing solidly.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Spartans have won seven of the last nine meetings.... Michigan State is committing just 11.4 turnovers per game and is on pace to set the mark for the fewest turnovers during Tom Izzo’s 19-season tenure, supplanting the 13 per contest of 2011-12.... Indiana is outrebounding its opponents by 11.3 per game and Michigan State (34-32) is the only team to win the battle of the boards against the Hoosiers.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST covered the spread 519 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 481 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST won the game straight up 836 times, while INDIANA won 152 times. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA covered the first half line 576 times, while MICHIGAN ST covered the first half line 424 times. *EDGE against first half line =INDIANA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN ST is 14-14 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 17-11 straight up against INDIANA since 1997.
--14 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--INDIANA is 19-8 versus the first half line when playing against MICHIGAN ST since 1997.
--14 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Hoosiers are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Michigan St.
--Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Michigan St.
--Home team is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--IND is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--IND is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Over is 7-3 in IND last 10 road games.
--MSU is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--MSU is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Under is 31-15 in MSU last 46 Tue. games.
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#525 NOTRE DAME @ #526 FLORIDA ST
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ACC Network - Line: Florida State -9.5, Total: N/A) - Florida State’s strong team defense found a way to throttle three straight ACC foes until a loss over the weekend. The Seminoles attempt to tighten things up at that end again when they return home to host Notre Dame on Tuesday. The Fighting Irish busted out of a three-game slide with a 70-63 victory over Virginia Tech on Sunday but have yet to win on the road in ACC play.
Florida State had gone eight straight games without allowing more than 62 points before a 78-66 loss at Virginia on Saturday. The Seminoles allowed the Cavaliers to knock down 7-of-11 from 3-point range and will need to tighten that up against Notre Dame, which is one of the better 3-point-shooting teams in the ACC. Pat Connaughton knocked down four from beyond the arc in Sunday’s triumph and has hit at least three 3-pointers in three of the last four games.
•ABOUT NOTRE DAME (11-7 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, 2-3 ACC): The Fighting Irish got off to an impressive start in conference play with a home win over Duke but could not find the magic again in losses to North Carolina State, Georgia Tech and Maryland. Notre Dame’s biggest improvement Sunday came on the defensive end, where it forced 17 turnovers and held a conference opponent to less than 70 points for the first time. “I thought that overall defensively we played well,” coach Mike Brey told reporters. “…We needed (a win) and hopefully that gets us a little more confident before we head to Tallahassee.”
•ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (12-5 SU, 11-4-0 ATS, 3-2 ACC): The Seminoles are enduring a stretch of four of five games on the road, with Notre Dame representing a brief stop back on campus before heading back out to Duke and North Carolina State. Florida State makes its mark on the defensive end and coach Leonard Hamilton took some positives out of the down performance against Virginia. “(The Cavaliers) did an outstanding job of executing their offense and I’m not sure that our defense was as bad as the percentages might indicate,” Hamilton told reporters, “because I thought they made good shots, they made tough shots.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Florida State G Devon Bookert is 9-for-12 from 3-point range in the last three games.... Connaughton has not missed a free throw since Dec. 14 and is 12-for-12 from the line in conference play.... The Seminoles lead the ACC in turnovers and had 18 miscues on Saturday.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NOTRE DAME covered the spread 612 times, while FLORIDA ST covered the spread 388 times. *EDGE against the spread =NOTRE DAME. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA ST won the game straight up 650 times, while NOTRE DAME won 326 times. In 1000 simulated games, NOTRE DAME covered the first half line 632 times, while FLORIDA ST covered the first half line 368 times. *EDGE against first half line =NOTRE DAME.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--FLORIDA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus NOTRE DAME since 1997.
--FLORIDA ST is 1-0 straight up against NOTRE DAME since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--FLORIDA ST is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against NOTRE DAME since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ND is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--ND is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Over is 7-2 in ND last 9 road games.
--FSU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Under is 6-2 in FSU last 8 home games.
--Under is 11-4-1 in FSU last 16 overall.
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#527 RUTGERS @ #528 SMU
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN News - Line: SMU -13, Total: N/A) - Southern Methodist looks to win its fourth straight game when it hosts Rutgers on Tuesday in an American Athletic Conference clash. The Mustangs hope to finish a stretch of four games in seven nights with another victory after downing Hofstra 73-49 on Sunday in a makeup game that was originally scheduled for Dec. 7, but was postponed when the Pride's flight was cancelled due to inclement weather. Coach Larry Brown admitted that fatigue may be an issue for his team, but believes they will be up for the challenge, saying: "On Tuesday, hopefully we'll have our legs and be ready to go, it's a conference game."
Rutgers has lost three out of its last four games and is coming off a 77-55 setback to Houston. The Scarlet Knights are 0-4 on the road this season and have their work cut out for them as four out of their next six contests are away from home. Coach Eddie Jordan was disappointed with his team's effort against the Cougars and stressed that they can't afford to take any nights off, saying: "We just didn't play well, we thought coming in that to win the game, everyone must play well, we were the opposite."
•ABOUT RUTGERS (8-10 SU, 8-8-0 ATS, 2-3 AAC): Myles Mack, who has been named to the AAC Honor roll twice this season, leads the team in scoring (16.7) and netted 15 points versus Houston. Kadeem Jack tops the team in rebounding (6.9) but hasn't grabbed 10 or more boards in his last 12 outings. Mack ranks first in the AAC in free throw percentage (87.1) and has gone perfect from the line in nine games, including five of his last six.
•ABOUT SMU (14-4 SU, 9-5-0 ATS, 3-2 AAC): The Mustangs are ranked 15th nationally in field goal percentage and have shot 50 percent or higher from the floor in two of their last three outings. Markus Kennedy recorded his second double-double in three games, notching 12 points and 12 rebounds versus Hofstra. Nic Moore leads the team in scoring (12.9), assists (4.6) and 3-point percentage (50) and has finished in double figures in 15 games this season.
•PREGAME NOTES: Southern Methodist is 9-0 at home this season.... The Mustangs have held 15 of their 18 opponents to less than 40 percent shooting.... Mack has finished in double figures in 10 consecutive games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SMU covered the spread 552 times, while RUTGERS covered the spread 412 times. *EDGE against the spread =SMU. In 1000 simulated games, SMU won the game straight up 880 times, while RUTGERS won 107 times. In 1000 simulated games, RUTGERS covered the first half line 530 times, while SMU covered the first half line 470 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--RUTG is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Tue. games.
--Over is 8-3 in RUTG last 11 overall.
--Under is 10-4 in RUTG last 14 road games.
--SMU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--SMU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Under is 4-1 in SMU last 5 home games.
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#529 CLEMSON @ #530 PITTSBURGH
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Pittsburgh -10, Total: N/A) - Clemson is proving the pundits wrong and, at this rate, the Tigers just might find themselves in the NCAA Tournament. Picked to finish 14th in the ACC by the media, Clemson has won three straight games and looks to defeat another ranked opponent when it visits No. 21 Pittsburgh on Tuesday. The Tigers were up and down in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but have defeated No. 20 Duke, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest in the last 10 days.
"We came back from ACC media day and we had the paper in our hand. We saw we were 14th. I laughed. To prove those people wrong is a good feeling," Tigers leading scorer K.J. McDaniels said. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, had its six-game winning streak snapped Saturday in a 59-54 loss at No. 2 Syracuse - a game in which the Panthers led by three with less than three minutes remaining before allowing 10 of the last 12 points. “We have to learn from some things, but we played with a lot of heart and a lot of energy," coach Jamie Dixon said.
•ABOUT CLEMSON (13-4 SU, 9-3-0 ATS, 4-1 ACC): The Tigers are a below-average offensive team, ranking 301st in the nation in points per game entering Monday's action, but their defense has been terrific of late. Clemson has held six straight opponents to 60 points or fewer, including Saturday's 61-53 victory over Wake Forest in which the Demon Deacons shot 36.2 percent and made only four of their 17 3-pointers. McDaniels, who had 15 points and a career-high 12 rebounds against Wake Forest, averages 16.7 points and 7.2 boards to pace the Tigers in both categories.
•ABOUT PITTSBURGH (16-2 SU, 5-9-1 ATS, 4-1 ACC): Fifth-year senior Lamar Patterson has emerged as one of the favorites for ACC Player of the Year as he is averaging 17.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists while shooting well from the field (51.2 percent), 3-point range (42.9) and the foul line (77.8). Talib Zanna, another fifth-year senior, has increased his scoring and rebounding every season of his Pitt career and is averaging 12.9 points and 8.2 boards to go along with a team-high 15 blocks. Sophomore point guard James Robinson is one of the league's best at his position, recording 73 assists and only 14 turnovers.
•PREGAME NOTES: Clemson is beginning a grueling stretch where five of its next six games are on the road, including matchups against North Carolina, Florida State, Syracuse and Notre Dame.... Robinson has not committed more than one turnover in a game since the season opener against Savannah State, when he had two.... The Tigers have eight players who have attempted at least 20 3-pointers, but only two of them (Devin Coleman, Adonis Filer) shoot better than 35 percent.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH covered the spread 497 times, while CLEMSON covered the spread 466 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH won the game straight up 779 times, while CLEMSON won 196 times. In 1000 simulated games, CLEMSON covered the first half line 521 times, while PITTSBURGH covered the first half line 433 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CLEM is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--CLEM is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Under is 4-1 in CLEM last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--PITT is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Tue. games.
--PITT is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Over is 9-3 in PITT last 12 overall.
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#531 GEORGIA TECH @ #532 BOSTON COLLEGE
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Boston College -4, Total: N/A) - Georgia Tech travels to Boston College on Tuesday in a matchup of two teams tied for last place in the ACC and in desperate need of something positive. The visiting Yellow Jackets scored 17 first-half points in an ugly 56-42 loss Saturday to Miami, shooting 29.5 percent from the field, and now open a stretch of four road games in their next five contests. The Eagles have lost nine of 11 overall following Saturday’s 82-71 defeat at North Carolina, and after playing their next two games at home face five road games in the following seven games.
Boston College guard Olivier Hanlan is third in the ACC in scoring at 18.9, but the Eagles have yet to establish a consistent second scoring option. Georgia Tech’s offense has been marked by inconsistency all season, but has a chance to get better against an Eagles’ team allowing an ACC-worst 75.2 points per contest. Yellow Jackets guard Trae Golden posted back-to-back 20-point efforts before being limited to 12 points against Miami.
•ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (10-8 SU, 5-7-0 ATS, 1-4 ACC): The Yellow Jackets need more consistent production from sophomore forward Marcus Georges-Hunt, who averages 11.9 points but is 9-for-30 from the field in his past three contests. Georgia Tech has been outscored by an average of 10.8 points in conference games, and three of its four losses have come by double digits. The Yellow Jackets sorely have missed forward Robert Carter Jr., who led the ACC in rebounding before suffering a season-ending knee injury Dec. 29 at Charlotte.
•ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (5-13 SU, 4-12-0 ATS, 1-4 ACC): Lonnie Jackson has hit 15 3-pointers in the Eagles’ past three games and leads the ACC in 3-pointers made (17) in conference games. But the Eagles have not been able to avoid stretches of futility on offense such as four turnovers and just one basket in a six-minute stretch that turned a one-point deficit into a 10-point hole against North Carolina. The Eagles rank near the bottom of the nation (325th) at 31.2 rebounds per contest.
•PREGAME NOTES: Boston College’s Ryan Anderson posted his 18th career double-double (11 points, 12 rebounds) against North Carolina.... Georgia Tech’s Daniel Miller has 15 blocked shots in five ACC games, and has moved into second place on the school’s all-time blocks list with 247.... The Yellow Jackets lead the series 9-8 but the Eagles have won the past three matchups, including an 84-64 victory in last year’s ACC tournament.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON COLLEGE covered the spread 494 times, while GEORGIA TECH covered the spread 478 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON COLLEGE won the game straight up 602 times, while GEORGIA TECH won 373 times. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA TECH covered the first half line 477 times, while BOSTON COLLEGE covered the first half line 468 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-6 against the spread versus GEORGIA TECH since 1997.
--BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-6 straight up against GEORGIA TECH since 1997.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--GEORGIA TECH is 8-4 versus the first half line when playing against BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Yellow Jackets are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--GT is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
--Under is 6-2-1 in GT last 9 overall.
--Under is 4-1 in GT last 5 Tuesday games.
--BC is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--BC is 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 Tue. games.
--Over is 9-4 in BC last 13 Tue. games.
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#533 TEXAS A&M @ #534 KENTUCKY
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Kentucky -14, Total: N/A) - After several unexpected losses, No. 14 Kentucky heads into Tuesday’s contest against visiting Texas A&M with the look of a team primed for a late-season run. “This team is getting better,” coach John Calipari told reporters after his team beat Tennessee 74-66 on Saturday. “They’re fighting. They’re playing together. They’re executing better.” Freshman point guard Andrew Harrison, a key reason behind the Wildcats’ optimism, scored a season-high 26 points with no turnovers in the win.
The Wildcats’ improving offense figures to be tested by the Aggies, who rank second in the SEC in scoring defense at 61.5 points per game. Forward Jamal Jones has shot 5-of-10 from 3-point range over his last two games and averages a team-high 12.3 points for Texas A&M, which is looking to bounce back from Saturday’s 81-72 loss at Mississippi State. Jones, a junior-college transfer who started his career at Ole Miss, could face a suspension after being ejected late in Saturday's game for receiving two technical fouls.
•ABOUT TEXAS A&M (12-5 SU, 6-5-0 ATS, 3-1 SEC): The Aggies opened conference play with wins over Arkansas, Tennessee and South Carolina behind the play of point guard Alex Caruso (SEC-leading 5.2 assists per game) and forward Kourtney Roberson, who averages 9.9 points and a team-high 7.3 rebounds. Caruso and Roberson both fouled out on Saturday, when the Aggies were denied their first 4-0 start in league play since 2005. Forward Davonte Fitzgerald received SEC freshman of the week honors after averaging 16.5 points and 3.5 rebounds in two games.
•ABOUT KENTUCKY (13-4 SU, 6-7-2 ATS, 3-1 SEC): While 7-foot forward Willie Cauley-Stein continues to struggle – he was held scoreless in Saturday’s win – fellow 7-footer Dakari Johnson has stepped up with 20 points and 10 rebounds over the last four games. Freshman forward Julius Randle leads the Wildcats in scoring (16.9) and rebounding (10.5), but it was Harrison’s play that drew praise from teammates and coaches after Saturday’s win. “I think this is his breakout game,” Johnson told reporters, “because he was attacking the basket but he was also getting others involved.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Aggies are 10-2 when leading at the half.... Kentucky and Texas A&M split two meetings last season, with each team winning on the road.... The Wildcats are 78-2 in Rupp Arena under Calipari.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS A&M covered the spread 508 times, while KENTUCKY covered the spread 453 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KENTUCKY won the game straight up 838 times, while TEXAS A&M won 142 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS A&M covered the first half line 550 times, while KENTUCKY covered the first half line 403 times. *EDGE against first half line =TEXAS A&M.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEXAS A&M is 2-0 against the spread versus KENTUCKY since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS A&M since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 1-1 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS A&M since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 6-2 in TAM last 8 overall.
--Under is 8-2 in TAM last 10 Tue. games.
--Over is 10-4 in TAM last 14 vs. Southeastern.
--UK is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Southeastern.
--Under is 7-3-1 in UK last 11 home games.
--Under is 5-1-1 in UK last 7 games following a ATS loss.
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#535 BUTLER @ #536 PROVIDENCE
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Providence -5.5, Total: N/A) - Providence goes into battle for the third time in less than a week as the Friars attempt to extend their winning streak to four against visiting Butler on Tuesday. Providence, which has only six active players on the roster averaging more than 7 ½ minutes of playing time, come in off Thursday’s double-overtime victory over St. John’s and an upset of then-No. 19 Creighton on Saturday. Butler snapped a five-game losing streak with an overtime win over Marquette on Saturday.
The first-ever meeting between the two programs features the second and third highest scorers in the Big East -- Providence’s Bryce Cotton (20.4) and Kellen Dunham of Butler (18.4). Cotton was forced to take over the point guard duties when Kris Dunn was lost with an injury early on in the season and leads the league in assists. Dunham ranks third in the Big East in 3-pointers made per game and shoots 39.1 percent from beyond the arc.
•ABOUT BUTLER (11-7 SU, 9-7-0 ATS, 1-5 Big East): The Bulldogs lost three times in overtime during their five-game slide and are shooting only 40.3 percent from the field in Big East play. Dunham has almost doubled his scoring output from last season when he was a freshman and averages 2.8 makes from 3-point range while Khyle Marshall is the only other double-figure scorer (15.8). Kameron Woods, who leads the league in rebounds (9.9) and scores 9.1 points per game, will be a key against the Friars’ athletic front line.
•ABOUT PROVIDENCE (13-5 SU, 8-9-0 ATS, 3-2 Big East): Cotton leads the Big East in minutes per game (39.3), playing all 130 in the last three games, and the Friars turned the ball over only five times against Creighton. Forwards Tyler Harris (13.2), LaDontae Henton (13.1) and Kadeem Batts (12.8) give the Friars three more solid options with diverse talents who are scoring in double figures. Carson Desrosiers, a 7-0 transfer from Wake Forest, provided 23 strong minutes against Creighton with three blocks and Henton leads the team in rebounding (7.3)
•PREGAME NOTES: Providence leads the nation in free-throw shooting at 79.6 percent while the Bulldogs are making only 66.1 – last in the Big East.... Butler is 2-4 in six overtime games and is one shy of the team’s record of seven extra-period contests in 1996-97.... The Friars are 9-1 at home, the only loss in double overtime 81-80 against Seton Hall.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, BUTLER covered the spread 501 times, while PROVIDENCE covered the spread 499 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PROVIDENCE won the game straight up 637 times, while BUTLER won 335 times. In 1000 simulated games, PROVIDENCE covered the first half line 506 times, while BUTLER covered the first half line 454 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BUT is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--BUT is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Over is 8-1 in BUT last 9 vs. Big East.
--Over is 4-1 in PROV last 5 overall.
--Over is 4-1 in PROV last 5 home games.
--Over is 4-0 in PROV last 4 Tuesday games.
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#537 PURDUE @ #538 NORTHWESTERN
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Purdue -1.5, Total: N/A) - Points will be at a premium when Purdue visits Northwestern on Tuesday looking for its fourth straight Big Ten win. The Boilermakers rallied in the final seconds to stun Penn State on Saturday to rack up three straight conference victories for the first time in nearly two years. Northwestern also got off the snide by beating Indiana on Saturday for its first road win in conference play in over a year.
Northwestern ranks 341st out of 351 teams in the nation in scoring at 61.9 points. The Wildcats are also one of the worst shooting teams in the nation connecting on just 34.3 percent of their shots from the field over the past three games. The teams split last season's series with both teams winning on their home courts.
•ABOUT PURDUE (13-5 SU, 6-9-0 ATS, 3-2 Big Ten): The Boilermakers labeled their last game a must win if they were to earn an NCAA bid and then pulled out a dramatic decision. Terone Johnson nailed a 3-pointer with seven seconds left to tie the game and Purdue then stole the ensuing inbounds pass and won the game on a free throw by A.J. Hammons with a second remaining. "We came in saying that we absolutely had to have this win," Johnson said. "It would have been a bad loss on our resume. We have to try to win every single game now."
•ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (9-10 SU, 6-12-0 ATS, 2-4 Big Ten): Northwestern closed Saturday's game on a 19-9 run to secure the victory. Prior to that game the Wildcats had lost their first two conference road games by 23 and 26 points. At home they've been a bit better posting a 7-4 record but they haven't reached 50 points in their last three games while their defense held Indiana to its lowest point total since Feb. 25, 2010.
•PREGAME NOTES: Northwestern's Drew Crawford is the Big Ten's active leading scorer with 1,667 career points.... Purdue has won five of the last six in the series.... Purdue is 2-1 in true road games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PURDUE covered the spread 516 times, while NORTHWESTERN covered the spread 484 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PURDUE won the game straight up 539 times, while NORTHWESTERN won 435 times. In 1000 simulated games, NORTHWESTERN covered the first half line 480 times, while PURDUE covered the first half line 467 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NORTHWESTERN is 14-12 against the spread versus PURDUE since 1997.
--PURDUE is 17-10 straight up against NORTHWESTERN since 1997.
--11 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--NORTHWESTERN is 17-8 versus the first half line when playing against PURDUE since 1997.
--9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Boilermakers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Boilermakers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Northwestern.
--Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PUR is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games.
--PUR is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
--Over is 7-1 in Wildcats last 8 Tuesday games.
--Over is 7-1 in NW last 8 Tue. games.
--Under is 8-2 in NW last 10 home games.
--NW are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
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