Service Plays Tuesday 09/08/09

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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 8

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Tampa Bay (72-66) at N.Y. Yankees (89-50)

The Rays, whose wild-card hopes are fading fast, send rookie David Price (7-7, 4.75 ERA) to the hill opposite Chad Gaudin (5-10, 4.98 overall; 1-0, 4.08 with New York) as these A.L. East rivals continue a four-game series in the Bronx.

New York swept a day-night doubleheader from Tampa Bay on Monday, winning 4-1 and 11-1. The Yankees have won 10 of their last 12, allowing three runs or fewer in seven of those contests. They’re on additional surges of 51-18 overall, 41-13 at home, 25-6 against divisional foes, 13-4 against teams with a winning record, 4-1 on Tuesday, 36-15 versus southpaw starters and 42-17 as a favorite.

The Rays have now dropped six in a row, tallying three runs or less four times, and they’re just 3-11 in their last 14 contests, a slump that has all but ended their hopes of a return trip to the postseason. Tampa Bay is also in ruts of 0-5 against right-handed starters and 10-28 in the third game of a series.

New York has won six of the last seven meetings against Tampa Bay this year and is 57-24 in the last 81 series clashes in the Bronx. The visitor is 7-5 in the last 12 battles.

Price is coming off Thursday’s 6-3 home loss to Boston, yielding four runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings. The lefty has still surrendered three earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts, including his first road win of the season at Detroit on Aug. 29 when he scattered five hits and a run over 7 1/3 innings of a 3-1 victory. Still, Price is just 1-4 with a 6.81 ERA in eight road starts.

The Rays have alternated wins and losses in Price’s last five trips to the mound, but they’re 6-1 in his last seven starts against the A.L. East. Also, in his first career start against the Yankees on June 6 in New York, he gave up three runs (one earned) on two hits and five walks over 5 2/3 innings, getting a no-decision in Tampa Bay’s 9-7 win.

Gaudin started the season with the Padres and went 4-10 with a 5.13 ERA in 20 games (19 starters) before being traded to the Yankees. He’s made two starts since arriving in New York, giving up a total of three runs, five hits and eight walks in eight innings, with the Yanks winning both games on the road (3-2 at Oakland and 10-5 at Toronto). Gaudin faced the Rays twice in 2007, going 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA.

For Tampa Bay, the “under” is on runs of 5-2 on the road, 7-3 as an underdog, 7-2 on Tuesday, 35-17-4 against right-handed starters and 4-0-1 with Price on the hill. Meanwhile, New York is on “over” stretches of 6-2 overall (all against divisional opponents), 7-2 against winning teams, 4-0 on Tuesday and 4-1 against southpaw starters, but the under is 16-8-1 in the Yankees’ last 25 games in the Bronx.

Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last six battles between these rivals and 10-5 in the last 15 clashes in New York.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER


Seattle (72-66) at L.A. Angels (81-54)

The Mariners continue a seven-game, three-city A.L. West road trip when they open a three-game set against the Angels. Scott Kazmir (8-8, 5.68 ERA) will make his home debut for Los Angeles when he matches up against Seattle ace Felix Hernandez (14-5, 2.65) for the second time in five days.

Seattle had Monday off after splitting a four-game series in Oakland, winning the first two games 7-4 and 6-3 before losing the last two 9-5 and 5-2, with the defeats ending a four-game winning streak. The Mariners are 7-3 in their last 10 against A.L. West foes, but otherwise they’re in funks of 19-40 as an underdog, 1-5 after an off day and 1-6 on the highway versus southpaw starters.

The Angels took the first three games of a weekend series at Kansas City before falling 6-3 on Sunday. Prior to the defeat, L.A. had won five of seven, while giving up a total of just 10 runs. However, the Angels’ once-red-hot offense has been held to three runs or fewer in five of its last six games. Mike Scioscia’s club is still on runs of 52-25 overall and 18-8 in series openers.

These rivals met last week in Seattle with the Mariners taking two of three, capped by Wednesday’s 3-0 victory in which Hernandez (eight scoreless innings, four hits allowed) outdueled Kazmir (two runs, one earned, and three hits allowed in 6 1/3 innings). Seattle holds a 9-7 edge in the season series, but is just 9-20 in its last 29 games at Angel Stadium.

With Wednesday’s dominating outing against Los Angeles, Hernandez has now delivered 18 quality starts in his last 19 trips to the mound, including the last seven in a row. Also, in half of his 28 starts, the big right-hander has given up one or zero earned runs.

With Hernandez on the mound, the Mariners are on a slew of positive runs, including 20-8 overall, 8-2 on the road, 5-1 as an underdog, 4-0 against division rivals and 9-1 versus winning teams. He’s 8-2 with a 2.06 ERA in 15 road starts this year and 4-5 with a 4.40 ERA in 15 career starts against the Angels, but in his last two against L.A., he gave up just one unearned run on 10 hits in 14 2/3 innings, with Seattle adding a 4-3 win in Anaheim on May 30 to his 3-0 home victory Wednesday.

Despite losing, Kazmir pitched well in his Angels debut and has now delivered four straight quality starts going back to his time with Tampa Bay, posting a 2.77 ERA with 29 strikeouts against just seven walks in 26 innings. The hard-throwing left-hander has made just one previous career start at Angel Stadium – in June of last season with Tampa Bay – allowing three runs on six hits while striking out 10 in 6 2/3 innings, but he lost, 4-2.

With Wednesday’s 3-0 setback, Kazmir is now 3-2 with a solid 2.93 ERA in seven career starts against the Mariners. He has a 35-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last five outings versus Seattle.

Behind their ace, the Mariners are on “under” streaks of 12-5-1 overall, 36-16-2 on the road and 28-13-1 as an underdog. However, the over is 8-3 in King Felix’s last 11 starts versus the Halos. Also, the under is 6-3 in Kazmir’s last nine starts (3-0 last three) and 4-1 in his last five outings against Seattle.

The under is 18-6 in Seattle’s last 24 games versus the A.L. West and 4-1-1 in its last six on Tuesday, but the over is 7-3-1 in the M’s last 11 road games, 4-1-1 in their last six after an off day and 8-1-1 in their last 10 series openers. Meanwhile, the Angels have stayed under the number in five straight games overall and four straight on Tuesday, but the over is 20-8 in their last 28 at home, 9-3-1 in their last 13 series openers and 35-16-4 in their last 54 when favored.

Lastly, the under is 6-2 in the last eight Mariners-Angels battles.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
 
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Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bets

Indiana Fever at New York Liberty (-2.5, 141.5)

Over the last two years, this series has been very one-sided, both straight up and against the spread.

The Fever have won eight of the last nine meetings. They have covered the number in all of the wins, including four games where they were giving at least 6.5 points.

The only time Indiana has not covered against New York was a 102-96 road loss in triple OT on June 26, 2008. As a three-point underdog, it ran out of gas and did not score in the final two minutes.

The Fever has won the last four meetings, holding the Liberty to less than 60 points in three of them.

Pick: Indiana


San Antonio Silver Stars at Los Angeles Sparks (-5.5, 148)

The Silver Stars (13-17) have won three straight games - including an 89-72 thumping of the Sparks on Saturday - to get within one game of Los Angeles (14-16) for third place in the Western Conference.

But those wins were at home. The Silver Stars are a much different team on the road, where they have lost four in a row straight up and against the spread, allowing an average of 91 points.

In two home-and-home sets where the Silver Stars have won the first game, they have lost the second game by a combined 23 points.

In two home-and-home series where the Sparks have lost the first game, they have bounced back to win the second game by an average of 22 points.

Pick: Los Angeles
 
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Hondo

September 8, 2009

Hondo celebrated Labor Day with a workmanlike victory by the Chisox, who stopped the Red Sawx to reduce the deficit to 805 aguirres.

Tonight, he'll try the Porcello in Kansas City -- 10 units on the Tigers.
 

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St Bernadine's Sports

ABATS Computer Plays
6-1 last 3 days
3 *** Georgia Tech -5
 
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Benjamin lee Eckstein

Ben lee had Np on Monday.

"Mr Chalk" on a 3 game losing $treak likes the Pale hose -$150/A's.

"Mr Chalk" is 77-57 -$1550 for the MLB season.
 
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MLB DUNKEL


LA Dodgers at Arizona
The Diamondbacks look to take advantage of an LA team that is 1-4 in Chad Billingsley's last 5 starts as a favorite. Arizona is the pick (+185) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+185). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 8

Game 901-902: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Martinez) 14.301; Washington (Lannan) 13.458
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-145); Over

Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 14.522; Pittsburgh (Duke) 13.709
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-110); Over

Game 905-906: Florida at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (VandenHurk) 15.887; NY Mets (Redding) 14.885
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-110); Over

Game 907-908: Atlanta at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 14.462; Houston (Paulino) 14.931
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+135); Over

Game 909-910: St. Louis at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Smoltz) 15.811; Milwaukee (Parra) 15.047
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Under

Game 911-912: Cincinnati at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Maloney) 15.682; Colorado (Marquis) 16.931
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-245); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-245); Over

Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.264; Arizona (Buckner) 15.377
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-205); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+185); Over

Game 915-916: San Diego at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 15.023; San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.304
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-270); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-270); Under

Game 917-918: Texas at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (McCarthy) 15.342; Cleveland (Laffey) 14.750
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+100); Over

Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.881; NY Yankees (Gaudin) 15.408
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+135); Under

Game 921-922: Minnesota at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Duensing) 15.561; Toronto (Romero) 14.980
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Over

Game 923-924: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hernandez) 15.942; Boston (Buchholz) 15.405
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-225); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+205); Under

Game 925-926: Detroit at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello); 14.793; Kansas City (Chen) 15.370
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+165); Over

Game 927-928: Oakland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Tomko) 15.716; White Sox (Torres) 16.257
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-140); Under

Game 929-930: Seattle at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.960; LA Angels (Kazmir) 14.946
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120); Under

Game 931-932: Texas at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Hunter) 16.094; Cleveland (Carrasco) 14.976
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
 
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WNBA DUNKEL


San Antonio at Los Angeles
The Sparks look to take advantage of a San Antonio team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games. Los Angeles is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 8

Game 601-602: Indiana at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 110.027; New York 112.191
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 2; 137 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 2 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+2 1/2); Under

Game 603-604: San Antonio at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 109.162; Los Angeles 116.484
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 7 1/2; 142
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-5 1/2); Under
 
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Jim Feist: 5-Star Inner Circle MLB Situational Bookie Buster!
MLB (917) TEXAS RANGERS VS (918) CLEVELAND INDIANS
Take: 5-Star (917) TEXAS RANGERS
Reason: Texas has a few injury concerns, but they are still a talented motivated team in a pennant race. They get to go with a terrific young arm in Brandon McCarthy, at 6-2 on the season. He doesn't walk anyone and the team is 4-2 his last 6 starts. Cleveland is going nowhere and starter Aaron Laffey has a decent ERA, but walks way too many batters: 45 in 96 innings. He is also hittable, allowing 139 base runners in 96 innings. Play the Rangers.

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Jim Feist's Road Warrior Wipeout!
MLB (903) CHICAGO CUBS VS (904) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Take: 3-Star (903) CHICAGO CUBS
Reason: With the pressure off, Chicago righty Ryan Dempster has been throwing smoke, with a 1.80 ERA and a 2-1 record his last three starts. He has fanned 19 with only 4 walks! The Cubs assured the Pirates of a record-breaking 17th consecutive losing season, getting two homers from Derrek Lee and an effective start from Ted Lilly while winning 4-2 on Monday. By losing their 10th in 11 games, the Pirates will finish below .500, just as they have every season since 1993. Lefty Zach Duke tries to get them going here, but he's been weak, with a 6.75 ERA his last three starts. Play the Cubs.
 
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charlie

mlb. padres @ giants under 6' runs, seattle @ angels under 8 runs & cubs @ pirates under 8 runs (500* triple play).
mlb. st. louis-140 (30*)
mlb. cubs-120 (20*)
mlb. yankess-150 (20*)
mlb. seattle+120 (10*)
mlb. toronto-110 (10*) Bonus Play
 
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KELSO's HIGHROLLER MLB PLAY

Highrollers Baseball

Tuesday, September 08, 2009
15 UnitsLa Angels {S.Kazmir} (-125) over Mariners {F.Hernandez}
10:05 PM -- Angel Stadium of Anaheim
LOS ANGELES ANGELS (81-55) -125 over Seattle Mariners (72-66) Pitching for Los Angeles: LH Scott Kazmir (8-8, 5.68) Pitching for Seattle: RH Felix Hernandez (14-5, 2.65) Starting Time: 10:05 TV: Fox Sports Northwest, Fox Sports West
Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 65.
 

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Tuesday MLB Plays



MLB Baseball

25* Play Detroit (-155) over Kansas City (MLB PLAY)

Kansas City has lost 14 of the last 16 games as a home underdog of +125 or higher and they have also lost 27 of the last 38 games coming off two or more UNDER the totals. Bruce Chen is 0-2 vs. Detroit over his career with an ERA of 6.75 and he is also 1-6 in all starts this season with an ERA of 5.24.


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25* Play LA Dodgers (-185) over Arizona (MLB PLAY)


Los Angeles has won 16 of the last 19 games coming off six or more games vs. division opponents and they have also won 33 of the last 44 games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs. Arizona has lost 5 consecutive games and Billy Buckner is 0-4 at home this season with an ERA of 14.01.
 
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Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR TUESDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )



Cincinnati (Moloney)

COLORADO (MARQUIS) -235 (1)



PHILADELPHIA (MARTINEZ) -140 (2)

Washington (Lannan)



Texas (McCarthy)

CLEVELAND (LAFFEY) -110 (3)
 

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