Service Plays Tuesday 09/01/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bets

Minnesota Lynx at San Antonio Silver Stars (-4.5, 164)

Desperation is setting in for both teams. The Lynx and Silver Stars each needed triple digits to get wins that momentarily stalled late-season stumbles that could cost them playoff spots.

The Lynx lost six in a row - failing to cover in all six - before edging the Sacramento Monarchs, 100-95. They followed that by dropping an 81-75 decision at Washington as a four-point underdog. Minnesota has given up at least 78 points in its last eight games.

The Silver Stars dropped a season-high four straight games - also failing to cover in all four - before rallying for a 100-88 overtime home win over Detroit, which was without scorer Katie Smith. San Antonio has allowed an average of 84.8 points in its last five games.

The loser falls into fifth place in the Western Conference and out of the playoff picture. The road team has won all three meetings this season.

Pick: Minnesota


Seattle Storm at New York Liberty (-2, 140.5)

Winners of five in a row, the Storm have clinched a playoff berth and have a firm grip on second place in the Western Conference.

This is the opener of a three-game trip and marks the fourth trip of three games for Seattle. In each of the previous trips, the Storm lost the first game.

Two of those trips began in the Eastern time zone - a 73-66 loss to Indiana on June 9 and a 64-53 loss to Connecticut on Aug. 13.

Seattle is coming off a grueling double-overtime home win over Atlanta on Saturday without injured star center Lauren Jackson, who will miss this game as well.

The Liberty has won six of their last 10 games and are playing better under new coach Anne Donovan. One of the losses in that stretch was a 70-69 setback at Seattle as a 6.5-point underdog on Aug. 8.

Pick: New York

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 1

NATIONAL LEAGUE


San Francisco (72-59) at Philadelphia (75-53)

Fresh off a three-game home sweep of the Rockies that allowed them to pull into a tie for the N.L. wild-card lead, the Giants open a six-game road trip at Citizens Bank Park, with Jonathan Sanchez (6-10, 4.27 ERA) set to oppose Phillies ace Cole Hamels (7-8, 4.52).

San Francisco outscored Colorado 16-8 over the weekend and finished a six-game homestand with a 5-1 record. Now the Giants hit the highway where they’ve lost three in a row and four of their last five, and they’re 10 games under .500 on the road for the season (28-38). Bruce Bochy’s bunch has also lost four in a row after a day off, but it has won four straight series openers and four of five on Tuesday.

The Phillies continued their stellar play with Sunday’s 3-2 home win over the Braves. The defending World Series champs are on hot streaks of 36-16 overall, 21-8 at home, 4-1 against lefty starters, 5-0 against the N.L. West and 7-2 versus teams with a winning record.

The Giants have won five of the last six meetings with Philadelphia – including three of four this year – but all were at home. They’re only 3-10 in their last 13 visits to Citizens Bank Park.

Sanchez has posted a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts, with San Francisco winning the last two. Despite that, the Giants are still on a bevy of losing skids behind Sanchez, including 10-24 overall, 3-15 on the road, 4-10 against winning teams and 2-6 versus the N.L. East. The southpaw is 2-8 with a 4.81 ERA in 14 road appearances (12 starts) this year, but he’s 1-0 with a 4.60 ERA in six career outings (two starts) against the Phillies, including a 7-2 home victory on July 30.

Hamels picked up his lone victory in August on Wednesday in Pittsburgh, scattering seven hits over eight scoreless innings in a 4-1 victory. In his first four August outings – all Phillies losses – Hamels went 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA. The left-hander is 4-3 with a 4.13 ERA in 12 home starts this year and 3-1 with a 5.03 ERA in five outings against the Giants, including a 7-3 loss in San Francisco on Aug. 2 when he got tagged for all seven runs (six earned) in five innings.

San Francisco carries “over” streaks of 4-0 on Tuesday and 5-1-1 when Sanchez faces N.L. East teams, but the under is 8-3 in its last 11 after an off day. For Philadelphia, the “under” is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 36-17-2 after a victory, 5-2 on Tuesday, 4-1 after a day off, 3-0 in Hamels’ last three trips to the mound and 7-1-1 when Hamels starts on Tuesday. However, Hamels’ last four home starts have topped the total, and the “over” is 4-1 in his five career starts against the Giants.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA


Atlanta (69-62) at Florida (68-63)

The two squads battling it out for second place in the N.L. East and looking to remain in the wild-card hunt continue their four-game series at LandShark Stadium. The Braves’ Tim Hudson is scheduled to make his 2009 debut against the Marlins’ Anibal Sanchez (2-5, 4.96 ERA).

Atlanta knocked off Florida 5-2 in Monday’s series opener, getting to Marlins All-Star pitcher Josh Johnson after being no-hit through 5 2/3 innings. The Braves have followed up a 13-5 run by going 3-4 in their last seven games, including 1-4 against right-handed starters. The Braves are still 9-4 in their last 13 road outings and 8-1 in their last nine when playing the second game of a series.

The Marlins have now dropped four of their last five, but they remain on upticks of 23-12 at home, 8-4 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 on Tuesday.

The season series between these division rivals is now tied at 6-6, with the Braves winning the last three in a row and the visitor going 8-4.

Hudson went 11-7 with a 3.17 ERA in 23 games (22 starts) last year (3-6, 3.75 ERA on the road) before going on the shelf with an elbow injury that required surgery and sidelined him for the first five months of this season. Atlanta lost six of Hudson’s last seven road starts last year, but it has won nine of Hudson’s last 13 starts against the Marlins, including five of seven in South Beach. For his career, the former Cy Young Award winner is 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA against Florida, including a 9-4 victory in Miami last July 23 in his final start of 2008.

Since returning from a 2½-month stint on the disabled list, Sanchez has allowed five runs (three earned) in 9 2/3 innings, beating the Braves 5-3 on Aug. 21 before losing 10-3 to the Mets at home on Thursday. Florida has dropped five of Sanchez’s last seven starts overall and 10 of his last 14 against N.L. East rivals, but they’re still 12-5 in his last 17 home efforts, where the right-hander is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA in four starts this season.

Including the 5-3 win in Atlanta two weeks ago, Sanchez is now 3-3 with a 4.54 ERA in seven career starts versus the Braves.

The under is 10-4-1 in Hudson’s last 15 road starts, 13-6-2 in Atlanta’s last 21 on Tuesday, 7-2-1 in Sanchez’s last 10 starts overall, 5-1-1 in his last six against the N.L. East and 5-2 in Florida’s last seven games on Tuesday. Conversely, the Marlins are on “over” stretches as a team of 20-8-1 overall, 17-6 at home, 4-1 against right-handed starters, 10-4-1 against division rivals and 4-0 when facing Hudson.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston (76-54) at Tampa Bay (71-59)

The Red Sox look to put more distance between themselves and the rest of the A.L. wild-card contenders when they send Jon Lester (10-7, 3.60 ERA) to the hill opposite the Rays’ Andy Sonnanstine (6-7, 6.61) in the opener of a three-game series at Tropicana Field.

Boston capped a 10-game homestand with a three-game sweep of Toronto, ending with Sunday’s 7-0 beat-down of Roy Halladay. The Sox won six of their last seven on their homestand, and they’re 10-3 in their last 13 contests in opening up a 3½-game lead in the wild-card race. Terry Francona’s squad is on additional positive runs of 7-0 against right-handed starters, 11-5 on Tuesday and 41-14 after an off day, but it has lost 17 of its last 25 to teams with a winning record, going 1-12 in the last 13 on the road versus winning clubs.

The Rays ended a seven-game road trip with Monday afternoon’s 11-7 victory over the Tigers in Detroit, but they remain five games behind Boston. Tampa Bay is 10-5 in its last 15 games overall and it has won 11 of last 15 at home. Going back further, the Rays are on a 37-14 roll at Tropicana Field, and they’re on additional streaks of 8-3 against southpaw starters, 6-2 in A.L. East action and 7-1 on Tuesday.

The Rays are 8-4 in the 12 clashes with Boston this season and they’ve taken 16 of the last 21 meetings at Tropicana Field, including last year’s American League Championship Series, which Tampa Bay won in seven games.

Lester has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts, including all five starts in August, in which the southpaw posted a 2.41 ERA but had just one win to show for it. With Lester on the Hill, the Red Sox are on runs of 35-16 overall (3-0 last three), 6-3 on the road, 11-4 in series openers, 22-8 against winning teams and 25-12 versus A.L. East rivals.

Lester is 5-4 with a 3.77 ERA in 14 road starts this season, including an 8-1 rout at the White Sox 12 days ago. However, Boston has lost five straight games to Tampa Bay behind Lester (playoffs included), and he’s 4-4 with a 4.74 ERA in 12 career starts (10 regular season) against the Rays.

Sonnanstine spent the past two months in Triple-A Durham after getting off to a sluggish start with the big-league club. The right-hander, who went 5-3 with a 4.40 ERA in Durham, had all of his success at home this year, going 5-0 with a 4.54 ERA in six starts before his demotion, including a 6-2 victory over Boston on May 1.

Tampa Bay is 16-5 in Sonnanstine’s last 21 starts at the Trop, 10-2 in his last 12 at home against winning teams and 4-0 in his last four starts against the Red Sox (playoffs included). For his career, Sonnanstine is 3-1 with a 5.21 ERA in eight career starts (one playoff) versus Boston.

The Rays carry “under” trends of 4-1 overall, 5-1-1 at home, 7-1 on Tuesday, 17-8 against A.L. East foes and 5-1 when Sonnanstine faces division rivals. Also, the Red Sox are on “under” stretches of 8-3-1 after an off day, 9-3-1 when Lester faces winning clubs, 6-2 when Lester starts on Tuesday, 4-1-1 when he faces the A.L. East and 10-2-3 when he opens a series.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports
317 - 213 run 60 % on free selections

Angels -140

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR TUESDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )


Cleveland (Carrasco)

DETROIT (JACKSON) -200 (1)


Milwaukee (Looper)

ST. LOUIS (PINEIRO) -190 (2)


BOSTON (LESTER) -155 (3)

Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine)


Run Totals

Milwaukee / Cardinals UNDER 8 ½

Yankees / Baltimore UNDER 9

Pittsburgh / Cincinnati OVER 8 ½

Toronto / Texas UNDER 9 ½
9/1/2009

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

September 1, 2009

Hondo, closing the lid on the worst August in the history of handicapping, went double-draino with the Tigers and White Sox to put the number on the big red toteboard at 1,005 tebbettses.

Today, maybe the Sawx will continue to struggle in St. Pete (but probably not) -- 10 units on Sonnanstine.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe wiz Bonus Plays

rockies-1.5
cws/minn under
ariz/lad under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Cardinals(RL)
W. Sox

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

J Morrison System Plays 09/01
MLB

bet WhiteSOX ML

bet Orioles RL

WNBA

[A] bet SEATTLE buy 3 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB DUNKEL


Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
The White Sox look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 1-5 in its last 6 games as a home underdog between +110 and +150. The White Sox are the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has Chicago favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 1

Game 951-952: San Francisco at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 16.503; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.416
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+175); Over

Game 953-954: Atlanta at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 14.766; Florida (Sanchez) 14.876
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-110); Under

Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.841; Cincinnati (Lehr) 14.276
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+120); Under

Game 957-958: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 14.684; Cubs (Wells) 14.271
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-180); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170); N/A

Game 959-960: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 15.312; St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.786
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-190); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-190); Over

Game 961-962: NY Mets at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.988; Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.334
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-225); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+205); Over

Game 963-964: Washington at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martin) 14.031; San Diego (Richard) 14.775
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-135); Over

Game 965-966: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Petit) 16.183; LA Dodgers (Padilla) 17.190
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-180); Over

Game 967-968: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Rzepczynski) 14.692; Texas (Nippert) 15.270
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Under

Game 969-970: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Tallet) 14.499; Texas (McCarthy) 15.494
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-155); Over

Game 971-972: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carrasco) 14.514; Detroit (Jackson) 15.492
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Under

Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.339; Baltimore (Hernandez) 16.783
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+155); Under

Game 975-976: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.644; Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) 16.787
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+160); Over

Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.454; Minnesota (Manship) 14.784
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Over

Game 979-980: Kansas City at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 15.774; Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.690
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+125); Under

Game 981-982: LA Angels at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 14.969; Seattle (Fister) 15.560
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Seattle at New York

The Storm face a New York team that is just 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Seattle is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 1

Game 601-602: Seattle at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 113.748; New York 111.281
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 2 1/2; 137
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2); Under
Game 603-604: Phoenix at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 109.363; Detroit 118.810
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 9 1/2; 170
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 179 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1 1/2); Under
Game 605-606: Minnesota at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 105.862; San Antonio 113.290
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 167
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 164
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4 1/2); Over
Game 607-608: Connecticut at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 111.836; Sacramento 111.665
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 146
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1; 155 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+1); Under
Game 609-610: Atlanta at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 112.980; Los Angeles 118.139
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 166 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 162
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-4); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lance's Lock

Overall record: 835-724-31

Current streak: 2 losses

Todays play: Red Sox -160

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Super Sports Group (SSG)

Mets v. Rockies 8:40pm

PICK: OVER 9.5 -110 (8*) Best Bet

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Insider Sports Report

4* LA Angels /Seattle Mariners UNDER 9

3* Chicago White Sox -135 over Minnesota Twins

3* Arizona Diamondbacks/L.A. Dodgers UNDER 8.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Computer Picks

Philadelphia Phillies -185

St. Louis Cardinals -200

Los Angeles Angels -140

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mr. A's

Tuesday, September 1st, 2009 7:05 PM EST.
Cleveland Indians (58-72) at Detroit Tigers (69-61)
(R) Carlos Carrasco (0-0) vs. (R) Edwin Jackson (10-6)
Oddsmakers: Detroit as a -200 home favorite with the total listed at 8½ 'over'.

Detroit Tigers -200


Tuesday, September 1st, 2009 7:10 PM EST.
Pittsburgh Pirates (53-77) at Cincinnati Reds (58-73)
(R) Charlie Morton (3-6) vs. (R) Justin Lehr (3-1)
Oddsmakers: Cincinnati as a -125 home favorite with the total listed at 8½ 'over'.

Cincinnati Reds -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TheServiceKings

5* Reds
5* Over Reds
2* 2-team Parlay Reds, Over Reds

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Silver Key Pick for Tuesday ML Baseball


TAMPA BAY SONNANSTINE -R +1.5 Runs, -115 Over Boston (7:05 et)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Robert Ferringo

2.5-Unit Play. Take #962 Colorado (-1.5, -110) over N.Y. Mets (8:40 p.m.)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #966 L.A. Dodgers (-1.5, -110) over Arizona (10 p.m.)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #973 N.Y. Yankees (-1.5, -115) over Baltimore (7 p.m.)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #981 L.A. Angels (-135) over Seattle (10 p.m.)


1-Unit Play. Take #976 Tampa Bay (+145) over Boston (7 p.m.)


1-Unit Play. Take #952 Philadelphia (-1.5, +120) over San Francisco (7 p.m.)


1-Unit Play. Take #956 Cincinnati (-115) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m.)



Today's Totals

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Houston at Chicago Cubs (8 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Boston at Tampa Bay (7 p.m.)

0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 L.A. Angels at Seattle (10 p.m.)

0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 Arizona at L.A. Dodgers (10 p.m.)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

Game: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (7:10 PM Eastern)

Pick: Cincinnati -110 (moneyline)

The Pittsburgh Pirates dropped both games yesterday, making their road record dip to 18-48. The Pirates have now lost their last nine on the road, and 14 of their last 15. It also means they are now 3-23 in their last 26 on the road. They have become automatic fade material on the road. The Reds went through a bad stretch, but are now on a 7-2 run, with the only losses coming at the hands of the LA Dodgers, which is a much different team than they are seeing here in the Pirates, who have thrown in the towel. The Reds have now won six straight against the NL Central, and look like they are ready to sweep the Pirates. I'm going with Cincinnati here.