Drew Gordon 200*.....
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1. Magic- I've told you once and I'll tell you again: There's no better team in the NBA at bouncing back at home than the Magic, plain and simple. For one reason or another, they seemingly always regroup at Amway Arena, and the proof is in the pudding, going a perfect 12-0 SU & 8-4 ATS coming off a loss at home during the regular season! But what about during the Playoffs? Well, fact is, they've been even more deadly, going a perfect 5-0 SUATS in that spot! Guys, this trend is NO accident, and I don't care how well the Lakers have played, or how attractive it is to take Kobe plus the points, the Magic will bounce back tonight, period.
I've given you both Games 1 & 2 with my last two 200K Top Play releases, so you know I'm not full of shit... Question remains, how do the Magic do it? The answer is relatively simple, but let's start by examing Game 2 (you can throw out Game 1 because clearly the Magic were unprepared and just happy to be there). Sunday's Game 2 was a very competitive contest, one in which the Magic could've easily won SU, but didn't. So what changes tonight?
First, the Magic's backcourt will play better. Alston, Lee, Reddick, and Nelson went a combined 5 of 23 from the field, which is bad even by Orlando's standards (they're a frontcourt heavy team)... Look for a much better effort in front of the home crowd tonight. Another, even more critical factor, is the play of both Turkoglu and Howard, who combined for 12 critical turnovers on the road Sunday. Even for Howard, that's a hell of a lot of turnovers, and Turkoglu was also sloppy with the ball. Howard has been consistently better at home, and if you don't believe me, watch the closeout Game 6 in Orlando vs Lebron, where he dropped 40 points on the Cavs. Turkoglu is streaky, but he'll be focused tonight, you can count on that.
Finally, two things to consider: A. Just like the Magic's role players played poorly on the road, you can expect that to flip-flop tonight, with the Lakers bench having their issues. And B. You know damn well the Magic will have the edge in energy level and motivation, as the Lakers are well-known for taking their foot off the gas when they have a comfortable lead. The Magic on the other hand, as mentioned above, seemingly always rise to the occassion off a loss at home, so don't make the mistake of underestimating this Magic team at home tonight, as they will get the solid bounce back win and cover.
Take the Magic over the LA Lakers as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Orioles- I know everyone is high on the Mariners southpaw Jason Vargas, but let's not get too carried away. He's got a couple things going against him in this match up, but let's start with the most obvious: The Orioles just saw him 6 days ago, and while he was decent against them (2 runs allowed on 8 hits over 5 1/3 innings), he was hardly spectacular... Now seeing him less than a week later should greatly benefit an Orioles team that has hit lefties VERY well this season at home.
Speaking of hitting lefties well, the O's average a strong 4.9 runs per game versus lefties at Oriole Park, batting an impressive .304 in the process! The fact that Vargas is not going to blow them away with his velocity only helps, especially having just seen him. Note, the last lefty they saw at home was the Tigers Dontrelle Willis, whom they proceeded to light up for 7 runs on 10 hits in just 5 innings. The lefty prior to Willis was the Blue Jays Ricky Romero, whom they once again lit up for 5 runs on 11 hits over 5 1/3 innings... Underestimate the O's in this spot (against lefties at home) at your own risk!
Opposing Vargas is the Orioles Bradley Bergensen, who pitched a fine game vs the Mariners in his last start, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits over 7 innings. True, the M's will also benefit from having just seen him, BUT I like the fact he returns home in this start (where he's been better) AND Seattle averages just 3.8 runs per game against righties on the road! In other words, to expect a breakout offensive game here from the Mariners is unlikely, they just haven't scored enough runs in this spot to convince me otherwise.
Finally, the Orioles are desperate for a win, having lost their last 5 games of their road trip. The Mariners are just what the doctor ordered, as they've lost 9 of their last 13 meetings with Baltimore, and based on the way they've crushed lefties, they'll be targetting this game for a bounce back. In the end, even though they've lost five straight games, the right play here is the Orioles, as they finally stop the bleeding Tuesday night.
Take the Orioles behind Bergensen over the Mariners and Vargas in this MLB match up.
