INSIDE THE LINES
TUESDAY, APRIL 7
Updated by 2:00 P.M. Eastern Weekdays
Updated by 9:00 A.M. Eastern Weekends
NBA
New Orleans (47-29, 32-42-2 ATS) at Miami (41-36, 37-38-2 ATS)
Two teams that wrapped up postseason berths over the weekend will now try to improve their playoff seeding as the Heat host the Hornets at American Airlines Center in South Beach.
New Orleans clinched its second straight playoff spot despite consecutive upset losses to the Warriors (111-103 as a five-point road chalk Friday) and the Jazz (108-94 as a 2½-point home chalk Sunday). The Hornets have followed up a three-game winning streak by going just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven, with their normally stout defense allowing 102.4 points per game during this stretch and six of those seven foes tallying 98 points or more.
Miami is coming off a three-game road trip that began with Wednesday’s tough 98-96 loss at Dallas but ended with victories at Charlotte (97-92 on Friday) and Washington (118-104 on Thursday). The Heat, who cashed in all three road games, are heading back to the postseason after finishing with the worst record in the NBA a year ago.
New Orleans swept the Heat in last year’s season series with a pair of double-digit routs, then pounded Miami 100-89 in this year’s first clash, which took place back in the second week of the season. Although the Hornets pushed as an 11-point home chalk in that contest, they’re still 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, and they’ve won five of the last six battles outright.
Additionally in this rivalry, the host is on an 8-2 SU roll (5-4-1 ATS), and the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last seven-plus seasons.
The Hornets are mired in ATS funks of 4-9 overall, 1-4 on the road, 5-15 as an underdog, 7-20 as a road pup, 1-4 on Tuesday, 2-8 after a SU loss, 0-5 after a double-digit defeat and 1-4 when going on one day of rest.
Miami is on ATS slides of 0-4 after a double-digit loss, 2-5 against the Southwest Division and 19-41-3 after SU victory. Conversely, the Heat are on positive pointspread stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 8-1-1 on Tuesday, 4-1 as a favorite, 9-1 as a chalk of less than five points and 4-0 against the Western Conference.
For New Orleans, the “under” is runs of 10-3 overall, 8-3 against the Southeast Division, 4-1 against Eastern Conference foes, 4-1-1 as an underdog and 8-2 when playing on one day of rest. The under is also 10-2 in Miami’s last 12 against the Southwest Division, 10-2 in Miami’s last 12 against winning teams and 12-5-1 in Miami’s last 18 when playing on two days’ rest. Finally, the under is 10-2-1 in the last 13 Heat-Hornets clashes in South Beach.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
Orlando (57-19, 48-27-1 ATS) at Houston (49-28, 37-39-1 ATS)
The Magic, who are sill hoping to chase down the Celtics for the No. 2 overall seed in the Eastern Conference, make their only trip of the season to Houston to take on the Rockets, who have first place in the Southwest Division still within their sights.
Orlando’s late-season surge continued with Saturday’s 88-82 victory at Atlanta as a 1½-point road favorite. The Magic have won 15 of their last 18 games, going 11-6 ATS, including 4-1 ATS in their last five. Stan Van Gundy’s team, which has already clinched the Southeast Division title and trails Boston by one-half game for the East’s No. 2 seed, are also riding a four-game road winning streak (3-1 ATS).
Houston returned from an 0-2 SU and ATS road trip – losses at Phoenix and the Lakers – and hammered Portland 102-88 as a four-point home favorite Sunday. The Rockets are 18-7 SU in their last 25 games, but they’re just 7-8 ATS in their last 15. Rick Adelman’s squad, which trails the Spurs by one-half game for first place in the Southwest Division, has defended its home court with a vengeance lately, going 16-2 SU in its last 18 at the Toyota Center (10-7-1 ATS).
The Rockets have owned Orlando in recent years, winning two in a row, five out of six and eight of the last 10, all SU and ATS, with the winner covering the spread in each of those 10 contests. Back on Nov. 22, the Rockets went to Florida as a two-point underdog and prevailed 100-95 as a two-point underdog. The visitor has taken the last three meetings – all in the underdog role – including the Magic’s 97-92 victory as a 3½-point underdog in their lone trip to Houston last season.
Furthermore, the Rockets are on an 11-2 ATS roll against the Magic, the road team is 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings and the ‘dog is 4-1 in the last five clashes.
With the exception of its recent ATS numbers against Houston, Orlando carries nothing but positive pointspread streaks into this game, including 38-18 overall, 59-28-3 on the road, 35-17-1 against the Western Conference, 22-8 against teams with a winning record, 15-6-1 on Tuesday, 23-9-2 when playing on two days’ rest and 4-1 as a favorite.
Houston is on ATS streaks of 21-6 versus the Southeast Division and 14-6 as an underdog of less than five points, but otherwise the Rockets are in ATS funks of 7-16 as a road pup, 9-20 as a home pup of less than five points, 7-17-1 after a double-digit win and 2-5-1 on Tuesday.
For the Magic, the under is on stretches of 8-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-2 against the Western Conference, 7-3 as a favorite and 11-5 when playing on two days’ rest. Similarly, the Rockets are on “under” streaks of 6-1 as an underdog, 7-2 as a home pup and 5-1 versus the Southeast Division. Also, the under is 3-1 in the last four Magic-Rockets battles at the Toyota Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (1-0) at Philadelphia (0-1)
The Braves look to build off Sunday night’s convincing victory in Philadelphia when they conclude their season-opening two-game series against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Jair Jurrjens (13-10, 3.68 ERA in 2008) is set to toe the rubber for Atlanta opposite grizzled veteran Jamie Moyer (16-7, 3.71).
Behind a sensational outing from newcomer Derek Lowe, Atlanta spoiled the Phillies 2008 World Series championship celebration with a 4-1 victory Sunday. Lowe (eight scoreless innings, two hits allowed, no walks, four strikeouts) pitched a gem and was backed by home runs from Brian McCann, Jeff Francoeur and rookie Jordan Schafer.
Despite Sunday’s loss, the Phillies have still won 24 of their last 31 games (playoffs included), going 13-4 in regular season action and 15-3 at home, with all three home defeats coming against Atlanta.
Including the Braves three straight victories at Citizens Bank Park, the visitor is on a 13-3 run in this N.L. East rivalry. Still, Philadelphia has won 15 of the last 21 clashes overall.
Jurrjens was solid in his first full big-league season, but he turned in just two quality starts in his last seven outings, giving up four earned runs or more in five of those contests and pitching past the sixth inning just once – in his final start of the year at Philadelphia (6-2 defeat). In fact, Jurrjens’ final two starts of 2008 came against the Phillies – one home, one road – and he lost both, giving up six runs (all earned) on 10 hits in 12 innings (4.50 ERA).
Moyer defied his birth certificate last season, given up three earned runs or fewer making 37 starts, including three in the playoffs, yielding three earned runs or fewer in 28 of those outings. Although Moyer was the starter in two of Philadelphia’s three playoff losses, the team still won 10 of his last 13 starts, going 5-1 in his final six efforts at Citizens Bank.
In the regular season last year, Moyer was 6-4 with a 4.61 ERA in 16 home starts and 0-0 despite a 6.55 ERA in two outings against the Braves, both on the road and both one-run Philly wins. For his career, Moyer is 3-8 with a 5.36 ERA versus Atlanta in 14 appearances (13 starts). Meanwhile, Jurrjens was 6-5 with a 3.32 ERA in 15 outings on the highway in 2008, and the right-hander is 1-2 despite a 3.33 ERA in four career starts against the Phillies.
Atlanta is on positive streaks of 5-1 in divisional play, 4-1 on Tuesday and 35-16 after an off day, but it is 6-14 in its last 20 against southpaw starters. Meanwhile, the Phillies are still 38-16 in their last 54 overall, 25-7 in their last 27 at home, 18-6 in their last 24 as a home chalk, 20-7 in their last 27 against righty starters and 27-13 in their last 40 on Tuesday. Also, with Moyer on the hill, Philly is on runs of 8-2 overall, 4-0 at home and 24-7 against the N.L. East.
Including Sunday’s contest, which stayed well under the total, five of the last six meetings between these teams have stayed low. Also, the under is on runs of 5-2 for Atlanta overall, 8-3 for Atlanta on the road, 5-2 for Atlanta as an underdog, 5-1-1 for the Phillies overall, 7-0 for the Phillies as a favorite and 16-7-1 for the Phillies when Moyer starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (0-0) at Boston (0-0)
After having their season-opener postponed by Mother Nature on Monday, the Rays and Red Sox will try once again to square off for the first time since Game 7 of the 2008 American League Championship Series. A pair of aces are still slated to take the mound, with Boston’s Josh Beckett (12-10, 4.03 in 2008) opposing Tampa Bay’s James Shields (14-8, 3.56).
The Rays are taking the field for a meaningful game for the first time since the bizarre ending to the 2008 World Series, which saw the upstart club lose the best-of-7 battle to the Phillies in five games, including three straight losses in Philadelphia to end the Fall Classic. Tampa Bay won the A.L. East with a 97-65 record, the first time in the franchise’s sorry history that it finished better than .500. However, the Rays were just 40-41 on the road in regular-season action.
Boston (95-67) finished two games behind Tampa Bay in the division standings but won the wild-card berth, then took out the A.L. West champion Angels in four games in the best-of-5 divisional round. The Red Sox lost three of the first four games to the Rays in the ALCS, rallied to force a Game 7, but lost in Game 7 in Tampa Bay by a 3-1 final.
Including the ALCS, the Rays won 11 of the last 16 meetings with the Red Sox, going 4-2 in Beantown. Still, going back several years, Boston is 40-11 in the last 51 clashes with the Rays at Fenway Park and 8-2 all-time against Shields, including 2-0 in last year’s playoffs.
The Red Sox went just 1-5 in Beckett’s last six starts, including 1-2 against the Rays (all in Tampa). In those three games against Tampa (two in the playoffs), Beckett gave up 11 runs (all earned) in 17 1/3 innings (5.71 ERA).
Shields earned Tampa Bay’s first-ever – and only – World Series victory, shutting out the Phillies over 5 2/3 innings in Game 2, prevailing 4-2. The young right-hander went 2-2 with a 2.88 in four postseason starts, including 0-2 despite a solid 3.46 ERA in two starts against Boston.
Beckett made just 12 starts at Fenway last year, going 5-5 with a 5.65 ERA, compared with 7-5 and a 2.85 ERA in 15 road efforts. On the bright side, Beckett was 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA in five regular-season outings against the Rays, and for his career, he’s 5-3 with a 3.11 ERA in 10 starts against Tampa.
The Rays are on runs of 10-3 against the A.L. East, 5-0 on Tuesday, 16-7 with Shields on the bump and 5-1 when Shields pitches on the road, but they’re also in slumps of 48-107 as an underdog, 0-4 on the road, 12-26 when Shields takes the mound as a pup and 6-20 when Shields is a road underdog.
Boston is 64-29 in its last 93 home games, 19-8 in its last 27 on Tuesday and 13-3 in its last 16 in series openers. However, with Beckett on the hill, the BoSox are in funks of 1-5 overall, 0-6 at home (all as a favorite) and 1-5 against A.L. East rivals.
Shields was a much different pitcher at home last year (9-2, 2.59 ERA) than on the road (5-6, 4.82). Additionally, he was 2-2 with a 5.85 ERA in four regular-season starts versus the Red Sox, including 0-2 with a 21.21 ERA at Fenway Park, dropping his career numbers against Boston to 2-4 with a 5.23 ERA in eight outings overall (0-3 with a 10.13 ERA in three games at Fenway).
The under is 4-1 in Beckett’s last five starts against Tampa Bay and 5-2 in Shields’ last seven starts against Boston. Additionally, the under is on runs of 5-1-1 for the Rays overall, 11-2 for the Rays when Shields is an underdog, 5-1-1 overall with Beckett on the mound and 19-9 when Boston faces a right-handed starter.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
