hno:
Way too many!! @)
I usually have about 3-5 big bets a day and 3-5 smaller bets a day. If I buy a pick for the day, like from sportsmemo or someone liek that, I bet it big, but the touts I follow long term I bet smaller each day since it's a grind with them. Like in baseball I will probably not have a big bet ever, since it is a long season and I will follow certain touts and just grind it out al season.
Line Movement, Lesson 1
I always get a kick out of some people in regards to line movement. Lines can move(or not move) for a ton of reasons. The three most overused sayings i see in this industry, and they all drive me nuts, are reverse line movement, smart money and vegas knows something. Now i'm not saying line movement doesn't mean nothing, because it really does, but u need to figure out why the line has moved which leads to hardcore handicapping. Here is what I personally do. I get the opening lines from bookmaker the night before and start to cap the games accordingly. If I really like a certain side and then see that the line has moved against me on the dog side (+5 to +4) or favorite side or -4 to -5 only means I like the game more and its an investment. If a person was to play a certain side because the line moved and the public is on the other side heavy then you will lose your money and alot of it, espcially if its only moved .5 point.
There really isn't such a thing as 'reverse line movement' and there isn't really a thing as 'smart money'. I know from experience that a line can be moved by a sharp $1,000 bettor rather then a $8,000 bet from a trust fund baby. If someones definition of smart money is 'big bets' coming in on a certain team then there is 'smart money' on every single side in all of the events.
I ran a test in a forum full of squares a year or so ago and i offered them opening/closing lines on two college football games which I had a lot of trust on one side in each game that would cover. One line opened was a home favorite at -3 and closed at -5 and another one was +4 and closed at +4. I believe close to 75%(give or take) of the people said they wanted the -5 favorite in game 'a' because the money was coming in on the favorite which moved the line to -5 which is what a typical novice better would think and sometimes they are correct however more times then not they are wrong.
From a business perspective and this applies to Pinnacle spotsbook because i view them more as a syndicate rather then a sportsbook. If most bettors are going to wager on a team at -3 they is a solid chance they will still back them at -5 as well which would give the book more of an advantage it already has on a investor. Take our friend Jefferson for example. 90% of his wagers are released on sides where the line has moved against the opening line( Bulls +2 to +1.5 and Northeastern +3.5 to +2). He knows why these lines moved because he has contacts behind the desks who know exactly why which seperates him from everyone else.
Just my 2cents so take it for what its worth.
I always get a kick out of some people in regards to line movement. Lines can move(or not move) for a ton of reasons. The three most overused sayings i see in this industry, and they all drive me nuts, are reverse line movement, smart money and vegas knows something. Now i'm not saying line movement doesn't mean nothing, because it really does, but u need to figure out why the line has moved which leads to hardcore handicapping. Here is what I personally do. I get the opening lines from bookmaker the night before and start to cap the games accordingly. If I really like a certain side and then see that the line has moved against me on the dog side (+5 to +4) or favorite side or -4 to -5 only means I like the game more and its an investment. If a person was to play a certain side because the line moved and the public is on the other side heavy then you will lose your money and alot of it, espcially if its only moved .5 point.
There really isn't such a thing as 'reverse line movement' and there isn't really a thing as 'smart money'. I know from experience that a line can be moved by a sharp $1,000 bettor rather then a $8,000 bet from a trust fund baby. If someones definition of smart money is 'big bets' coming in on a certain team then there is 'smart money' on every single side in all of the events.
I ran a test in a forum full of squares a year or so ago and i offered them opening/closing lines on two college football games which I had a lot of trust on one side in each game that would cover. One line opened was a home favorite at -3 and closed at -5 and another one was +4 and closed at +4. I believe close to 75%(give or take) of the people said they wanted the -5 favorite in game 'a' because the money was coming in on the favorite which moved the line to -5 which is what a typical novice better would think and sometimes they are correct however more times then not they are wrong.
From a business perspective and this applies to Pinnacle spotsbook because i view them more as a syndicate rather then a sportsbook. If most bettors are going to wager on a team at -3 they is a solid chance they will still back them at -5 as well which would give the book more of an advantage it already has on a investor. Take our friend Jefferson for example. 90% of his wagers are released on sides where the line has moved against the opening line( Bulls +2 to +1.5 and Northeastern +3.5 to +2). He knows why these lines moved because he has contacts behind the desks who know exactly why which seperates him from everyone else.
Just my 2cents so take it for what its worth.
