Service Plays Tuesday 03/17/09

[TeddyTed]

i tried to bet liberty,but missed it bye 5 seconds.

 

[eric8535]

if that is the case what website to i go to to see what the smart money play is

 

[Warchant]

Even if you don't buy into smart money, the books are moving that line because they want more bettors on a certain side for a reason.

Of course wyoming could have covered.

It's just been my experience that when that type of reverse movement occurs, its best to stay away or take the other side.

I recall this happening many times. The Magic were at the bulls a month or so ago and everyone was on them. Large % of public and lots of touts, yet the line moved 2 points the other way. The bulls ended up winning outright.

 

[tb1215]

Right on Wyo, I pointed that out sometime ago. But your saying something about wazzu being 'smart" but there isnt any line movement there to indicate anything.

???? Is your comment that you simply like wazzu, just trying to clarify. Thanks.

I love playing the plays like the Wash St. play. The line NEVER budged off -4 since it's opening yet 61% were on St. Mary's. I usually like it to be at least 65% or more on a side and the line doesn't budge and I hit it hard, but this case their was only 61% and with the majority of the public pounding one side, usually the fav, and vegas not budging it tells you something, that they don't want to give nothing to the dog.

Edit: Same thing happened with Minnesota today at +11, line never budged with 61% on SA. I did not realize until now that it dropped to 9.5. I put my bet in 1:30 before tip and it was +11 so their was late 'steam' hitting Minn hard it looked like.

 

[Mr.BlueSky]

Even if you don't buy into smart money, the books are moving that line because they want more bettors on a certain side for a reason.

Of course wyoming could have covered.

It's just been my experience that when that type of reverse movement occurs, its best to stay away or take the other side.

I recall this happening many times. The Magic were at the bulls a month or so ago and everyone was on them. Large % of public and lots of touts, yet the line moved 2 points the other way. The bulls ended up winning outright.

could not agree more

 

[eric8535]

Even if you don't buy into smart money, the books are moving that line because they want more bettors on a certain side for a reason.

Of course wyoming could have covered.

It's just been my experience that when that type of reverse movement occurs, its best to stay away or take the other side.

I recall this happening many times. The Magic were at the bulls a month or so ago and everyone was on them. Large % of public and lots of touts, yet the line moved 2 points the other way. The bulls ended up winning outright.

I guess it just comes from my feeling. I thought Wyoming wins by 7+. I was wrong.

 

[CaliDreaming]

I can't believe that kentucky was up 20 and now aren't covering, talk about getting screwed on this one

 

[TeddyTed]

i dont always just bet the smart money,but some times it could be the deciding facter.

 

[TeddyTed]

bulls win!!!

 

[eric8535]

where do you guys look to see what the public is on

 

[chase88]

Jefferson-sports 2-0

bulls+1.5 :money8:


northeastern+2 :money8:

:toast:

good night fellas--happy st patties day--off to :drink:

 

[tb1215]

i dont always just bet the smart money,but some times it could be the deciding facter.

True, I do not bet it all the time. I watch the line all day and also what comes in on each team and decide something about 15 min before tip in case some steam comes in.

 

[Mr.BlueSky]

where do you guys look to see what the public is on

wagerline

 

[eric8535]

wagerline

in the consensus part i see public money but that is season to date

 

[TeddyTed]

thats that right way to bet TB,i like to wait and gather as much info as i can before the game starts also,well bed time for me,good luck with whatever you guys got going,ttul.

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Glad I took SDST/Weber 2nd half under to hedge the game over. Weber can't score shit.

 

[tb1215]

where do you guys look to see what the public is on

sportsbookspy by pregame. Wish I could get sports insight but I'm not forking out $169/month for it as the premium pro is the only thing worth if you are going to pay monthly.

 

[mtomto]

well sometimes major line moves mean nothing - look at the OVER of the lakers, its up 4 points and it looks like an UNDER

Very true. However, Ive been paying attention to line moves for many years, and over time total moves are done so in larger increments and inconsistently to tell with an edge in your favor what it means. Sides are more telling as they are commonly 1.5 to 2 points, more when their is more involved like a late scratch etc.

I also dont follow these touts blind. Their off base commentary about a game coupled with heavy tout support on one side gives me information.

Respect all the information and you will be just fine. Especially that which the book is giving you since they dont give you much.

 

[mtomto]

I love playing the plays like the Wash St. play. The line NEVER budged off -4 since it's opening yet 61% were on St. Mary's. I usually like it to be at least 65% or more on a side and the line doesn't budge and I hit it hard, but this case their was only 61% and with the majority of the public pounding one side, usually the fav, and vegas not budging it tells you something, that they don't want to give nothing to the dog.

Edit: Same thing happened with Minnesota today at +11, line never budged with 61% on SA. I did not realize until now that it dropped to 9.5. I put my bet in 1:30 before tip and it was +11 so their was late 'steam' hitting Minn hard it looked like.

I see that (now) on Minny, that was late or at least I didnt catch it late---which happens. Cant be strapped to a device 24/7 !!! GL

 

[tb1215]

Yea, with totals when the line moves 3 points I stay away. I have seen when a total moves 3 points it loses more often than not.