GOOD SEC WRITE UP from KELSO
IS LSU FOR REAL?
GET WITH ME, I HAVE THE ANSWER TONIGHT!
The LSU TIGERS are 11-1 in the SEC, three games better than anyone else.
The LSU TIGERS are 23-4 for the season, even though they're not getting any media run from ESPN or respect in the polls.
The LSU TIGERS are finally on TV tonight at home against Florida on ESPN!
Welcome to college basketball 2009 LSU, sorry it took so long to let you through the front door!
Tonight is either the night that LSU formally announces themselves as national championship contenders in a year where prior hopefuls keep falling by the wayside. Or, it's the night where nerves get the best of them and they fall back off the radar just as quickly as they jumped on it (assuming that THIS article represents them jumping on the radar!).
We should note that LSU did have a prior opportunity to make a statement on TV. They were overcome by nerves in a 10-point home loss to Xavier. That loss looks even worse now because Xavier has dropped road decisions at Duquesne, Dayton, and Charlotte. If that's the real LSU...then the whole SEC is in for a horrible March. Yes...it really is time to consider if the SEC and Atlantic 10 are almost even.
We haven't talked about the SEC in a while. We might as well use this chance to run our SPOTLIGHT numbers so we can see if the Tigers might actually be for real. Maybe the Xavier loss was a fluke.
We'll start with the standings. To make it interesting, we'll run all 12 teams together instead of breaking them up into divisions. This will give you a better sense of how LSU is overachieving in the league context.
SEC STANDINGS
LSU: 11-1
Kentucky: 8-4
Florida: 8-4
South Carolina: 8-4
Mississippi State: 7-5
Tennessee: 7-5
Auburn: 6-6
Mississippi: 6-6
Vanderbilt: 5-7
Alabama: 4-8
Arkansas: 1-11
Georgia: 1-11
An ESPN pundit was assuring everyone Arkansas was a top 25 team after they beat Oklahoma and Texas. Apparently the season ended for the Hogs right then. They've barely shown up since.
LSU has a 3-game lead on the field...which is very impressive even if the SEC isn't as good as it used to be. Nobody is as good as they used to be this year. In a year of parity, you have to respect anyone who can create some distance in the standings. That doesn't automatically make LSU a national championship threat (as Xavier would attest). But, it puts them in a discussion that's excluded them for too long. Knowing how to win is going to matter in neutral site games that go down to the wire.
You regulars know our favorite indicator stat is 'two-point defense.' Let's see how the SEC stacks up in that particular stat.
SEC 2-POINT DEFENSE
Kentucky: 40%
Mississippi State: 41%
Vanderbilt: 42%
LSU: 43%
Alabama: 45%
Auburn: 46%
South Carolina: 48%
Georgia: 48%
Arkansas: 48%
Florida: 49%
Mississippi: 49%
Tennessee: 51%
Okay, that's a lot of poor defense! Tennessee is a joke in the paint, and Florida looks to be smashing some watermelons with a sledgehammer themselves. You can probably ruled those two teams out of serious March consideration. They'll have to shoot great to beat anybody, and nobody can shoot great game after game.
Kentucky's defense is rock solid. LSU is certainly in an area where they should be respected. That 43% mark ranks in the top 25 nationally. It's only fourth in the SEC, but better than 25th overall. This suggests strongly to us that you should be looking to back Kentucky and LSU against cheap lines in the Dance.
Let's also note that LSU is 2-0 in the season series against Mississippi State. That speaks well for their chances of winning defensive battles in a tournament setting.
The schedule shows LSU and Kentucky set to play each other this Saturday in Lexington. It's a big week for LSU. They host Florida tonight on ESPN, then visit Kentucky the next time out. We'll know more about where the Tigers really stands in the big picture after those two games.
Contender or pretender? They'll tell us! And...remember that a bad week for LSU could foreshadow a bad week for the whole SEC given that home loss to Xavier.
College basketball has already been an interesting mess before this prior weekend. Then, both North Carolina and Oklahoma lost just as they were about to take over the #1 spot in the polls. Many legal sports bettors are giving up hope because they can't trust their reads on the teams.
Were you aware that LSU was 11-1 in league play and 23-4 overall? Or, have you just been eating whatever ESPN has been feeding you all season. It's time you signed up with the REAL college basketball expert!