Malinsky
0-13-2 last 15 on these 6* selections
-165 units in the last 6 weeks
REASON FOR PICK: 6* #732 L.S.U. -4 over FLORIDA
L.S.U. is better than Florida, and in some of the key areas of tonight’s matchup much better. This also has a chance to be one of the stronger crowds of any college game this season, with the ESPN cameras showing up in timely fashion on Fat Tuesday. It all means that the home team should be the substantial favorite, but that is not the case at all, and it means time to step up.
L.S.U. is 11-1 in the SEC, and Florida 8-4. Yet the gap may be wider than that. In conference play L.S.U. is allowing 39.2 percent shooting, including 29.3 from beyond the arc, with a league-leading +7.3 rebounding advantage, and 81 blocked shots. Florida? How about 46.0, 35.1, a -2.8 and 35 in those same categories. It is a monster of a gap in terms of defense and rebounding, the elements that respond best to crowds like the one that will be in Baton Rouge tonight, and even in more sedate settings the Tigers have gone 6-0 in home SEC play, with none of the results closer than seven points.
If it sounds like “Men against Boys” around the basket, with the Tigers bigger, tougher and more experienced, that may be just what it is. Trent Johnson inherited an outstanding opportunity with this particular team, one that sports three senior starters, and has five seniors in the top seven in the rotation. Contrast that to a Florida team starting three sophomores, and you see the potential for dominance in the physical aspect of the game, and that would be nothing new – players that accounted for 162 of the 200 L.S.U. floor minutes, and 169 of 200 for Florida, are back from the resounding 85-73 win that the Tigers got in Gainesville LY. And in terms of confidence and swagger, Tasmin Mitchell, Garrett Temple, Terry Martin and Chris Johnson combined for 106 minutes on this court two years ago in an easy 66-56 win over a Gator team that was on their way to the National Championship.
Here is what we see – Mitchell, Johnson and Quintin Thornton dominating down low against a soft Florida front-court; Temple being the ideal defensive counter to thwart Nick Calathes, which bogs down the Florida offense; and for a now-healthy Bo Spencer to have few difficulties with the Gator presses; if anything expect L.S.U. to attack the basket for easy opportunities against those presses. And with the Tigers knocking down 73.2 percent of their free throw attempts in league play, they bring the right end-game aspects as well.
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #714 SAN ANTONIO/DALLAS Under 190
We have been most fortunate that the recent Dallas schedule has laid out the way that it has, giving us now our third opportunity to cash an Under ticket as the Mavericks adapt to life without Jason Terry. We were able to get the money when the Celtics held them to 92 points at home, and the Rockets stifled them to only 86 in their only road game without Terry, yet the value remains outstanding, largely because of the other games in that span, a pair of routs over hapless Sacramento when they scored 118 and 116 points, and a 113 vs. New Jersey. Those explosions, of course, mean next-to-nothing, and what makes this better is that we have a similar situation developing with the Spurs.
In the three games since the All Star break without Manu Ginobli we have seen how Gregg Popovich wants to handle the tempo – they played to an Under in regulation all three times, by a collective 49 points (the loss at New York became an Over in overtime, but as always we only chart regulation play). And now that they are back at home for the first time since January 31st, with ample time to put a defensive game plan together, we can expect a stifling effort on that end of the court.
It is not just a case of losing explosive players in Terry and Ginobli, but also the fact that it impacts the depth as well, further exacerbated for Dallas because Jerry Stackhouse has to shut down again. It means a grinder of a tempo from the start for two teams that already know each other quite well, and with both also having to play on Wednesday there is not much fear of the pace ever speeding up, as each coach manages his limited pieces.
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #723 INDIANA STATE +9 over WICHITA STATE
In cashing a 4* ticket with Indiana State at Southern Illinois last week we never had to sweat, with the underdog Sycamores winning wire-to-wire. They followed that up with a Bracket Buster win at home over Toledo that takes the winning streak to five games, and has their confidence at the highest level it has been all year. But here is what happens when a team starts as poorly as they did – the oddsmakers never do catch up, largely because they do not have to. There simply is not much market demand for a team this far off of the radar screens. So what do we have tonight? A hungry and aggressive side that brings plenty of focus, since a win here would get them into a tie with Wichita State in the Missouri Valley standings, and a chance to move a step closer to avoiding the tourney play-in game. This is a very high line for teams that are only a game apart in the standings, and keep in mind that when Harry Marshall has been in the Indiana State lineup the Sycamores actually have a better conference record than the Shockers. That gets us in the game here.
While Indiana State is on a major role, offensively-challenged and depth-shy Wichita State is going to have a difficult time putting opponents away. The Shockers are shooting only 43.7 from the field, and 66.5 at the free throw line, which is a reason why they have only won two conference games all season by more than eight points. Nothing comes easily for them, much like their earlier 64-58 road win over Indiana State, rallying from a second-half deficit to get past a Sycamore team that was not playing at anywhere near the level that they are right now.
We do not believe that the home court advantage is worth what this price makes it to be. Indy State has already won at Northern Iowa, tied for first in the Valley, #2 Illinois State, Missouri State and Southern Illinois, while also covering at Creighton, which is tied with Northern Iowa for the top spot. And there is that added motivation to win one for senior key cog Jay Tunnell, who leads the team in scoring and is second in rebounding, in the final “homecoming” opportunity for the Topeka native. His take - “It would be huge to get that win. Anytime any one of us goes close to home, you want to beat that team that you feel should’ve shown more interest in you. Anytime we go back and play Wichita, I feel like I play better there and with the atmosphere, it’s not hard to get yourself going for a game.”
