STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
THURSDAY, JULY 31st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 7/31/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #18
The trading deadline is just about here, and the teams that are the hottest in the National League are the ones who really should be making the moves at this point. Though each of the five best money teams in the game are all in the American League, we'll be taking a look at the top teams in the NL for bettors in pro baseball betting action.
•Milwaukee Brewers (60-49, +$601) – The Brewers were once the best money team in the league, and though they have had a bit of a plight, they have still hung in there and would be in the playoffs if they started today. It's a heck of an accomplishment for a club with no really bona fide ace pitchers and bats that have generally overachieved as we see it. Our concern? The team has scored just two runs in its last three games combined, and it has three road games against the Cardinals coming up here over the weekend. There is a real chance that the schedule is going to end up getting the best of this team by October, and that will probably see the Brewers left out of the postseason dance when it's all said and done with.
•Miami Marlins (53-54, +$440) – The Fish are still living just a bit on what they did at the outset of this season at home. All of their profits are from games played at Marlins Park, and their 30-25 mark here at home is a fraction of what they were up when they started off like gangbusters in South Beach. That being said, this young pitching staff really is coming together, and it's only going to get better when left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney really figures it out and is set to become the stud that we know he can be. All of these prospects that have been put together in trades over the years are finally coming together, and though this probably isn't the year the Marlins will make the playoffs, they can legitimately finish right here as a .500 team with a solid last two months of the season.
•Pittsburgh Pirates (57-50, +$413) – The Bucs are starting to get sneaky at the trade deadline, and we wonder if they are ultimately going to end up making a big move that could change the course of how the National League playoff race ends up looking. When outfielder Starling Marte and right-handed pitcher Gerrit Cole both come back from the disable list, this really might end up being the best team in the National League, and that's saying something, especially in the crowded NL Central. The reason why the Pirates are going to be a decent bet all year long is because they don't have any of those "name pitchers" who are always the big time favorites every time they get on the bump. Pittsburgh should continue to trend upwards, and we would be surprised if it wasn't one of the best five teams in baseball from a betting perspective at season's end.
Around The League
-- Toronto Blue Jays's Main Focus Is To Upgrade Its Pitching Staff: Despite missing three key pieces from its lineup, the Blue Jays' main focus remains pitching. Toronto may have to get creative or concentrate on cost-efficient guys, as it isn't believed to be flush with cash at the moment. The Blue Jays have been linked to infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, but Toronto may just hope for quick returns for their Nos. 4, 5 and 6 hitters who all remain out with injuries -- Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind and Brett Lawrie.
-- New York Yankees Look For Reinforcements: Brian Cashman has said that he has “more work to do” in preparing the Yankees’ roster for a playoff run, and if the general manager is able to cross the finish line on anything, there could be new faces in the clubhouse on Friday at Fenway Park. Possibilities continue to float with Thursday’s non-waivers Trade Deadline approaching, and while manager Joe Girardi is keeping an eye on transactions around the league, he isn’t counting on anything as an absolute lock to happen with his club.
Cashman has expressed desires for a big bat as well as a starting pitcher; on the hitting front, the Yankees are known to have touched base about the Phillies’ Marlon Byrd and the Twins’ Josh Willingham. The Rangers’ Alex Rios is also on the block. There have been links between the Yankees and the White Sox about left-hander John Danks, but it appears that interest in bringing the Padres’ Ian Kennedy back to New York was overstated. CBSSports.com reported Wednesday that the Yankees inquired about Padres reliever Joaquin Benoit. The Yankees have already added starters Brandon McCarthy and Chris Capuano, plus infielder Chase Headley, in deals completed this month.
-- Cleveland Indians Deal Masterson To Cardinals: The St. Louis Cardinals acquired right-handed pitcher Justin Masterson from the Cleveland Indians in exchange for outfielder James Ramsey, the teams announced Wednesday. Masterson is 4-6 with a 5.51 ERA in 98 innings for the Indians this season. He is currently sidelined with a knee injury but expected to return from the disabled list for the Indians on Friday. He is expected to make his first start with the Cardinals on Saturday against Milwaukee.
Masterson was 14-0 with a 3.45 ERA last season, but has struggled with his control in 2014. He has walked 56 batters in 98 innings, after walking 76 a year ago in 193 innings. Ramsey, 24, was the first-round pick (23rd overall) of the Cardinals in the 2012 draft out of Florida State. He has spent the entire 2014 season with Double-A Springfield where he hit .300 (73-for-243) with 14 doubles, 13 home runs and 36 RBIs in 67 games.
-- Detroit Tigers minor league pitcher Evan Reed was charged on Wednesday with sexually assaulting a woman at a Detroit hotel in March. Reed allegedly sexually assaulted an "incapacitated" woman in his hotel room on March 30 before ordering her to leave, Wayne County Prosecutor Kym Worthy said in announcing charges against the 28-year-old reliever with the Toledo Mud Hens. Reed's attorney, however, insists the 45-year-old woman consented to sex, according to the Detroit News. After a months-long investigation, Reed was charged with two counts of third-degree criminal sexual conduct. If convicted, he could spend up to 15 years in prison. Reed was 0-2 with a 4.88 ERA in 27 games for the Tigers. He has a 6.97 ERA in eight games with Toledo.
-- The Miami Marlins promoted infielder Ed Lucas, 32, from Triple-A New Orleans. The team sent down outfield Jake Marisnick, 23, to the same team to make roster room. Lucas, who spent the first nine-plus seasons of his pro career in the minors, played 51 games with the Marlins this year before being sent back down on July 19.
-- The San Francisco Giants announced before the game that first baseman Brandon Belt, out since July 19 with a concussion, will travel with the team on its 10-game trip to New York, Milwaukee and Kansas City. Belt is expected to be activated off the disabled list sometime during the three-game series later this week against the New York Mets.
-- Houston Astros right-hander Josh Zeid will undergo season-ending surgery on his right foot next Wednesday. Zeid was placed on the 15-day disabled list on July 26 (backdated to July 25) with left foot bilateral sesamoiditis but will undergo a sesamoidectomy on his right foot first. Zeid will undergo the same procedure on his left foot six weeks after his initial surgery. He is expected to be sidelined a minimum of three months.
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Betting Notes - Thursday
National League
•Rockies-Cubs - 2:20 PM
--Hernandez is making first '14 start because of 16-10 inning games Rockies had last two nights; he was 3-3, 6.83 in 12 MLB starts LY.
--Arrieta is 4-1, 1.96 in his last eight starts.
--Colorado lost 14 of is last 16 road games.
--Cubs lost ten of their last fourteen games overall.
--Last four Arrieta home starts went over total.
•Cardinals-Padres - 3:40 PM
--Miller is 0-3, 6.53 in his last six starts.
--Despaigne is 2-2, 2.37 in his first six MLB starts.
--St Louis lost six of its last eight games.
--Padres won last four home games, allowing three runs.
--Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Cardinal road games.
•Phillies-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Lee is 1-3, 6.16 in his last five starts.
--Gonzalez is 0-2, 4.24 in his last three starts.
--Phillies lost seven of their last eleven games.
--Washington won nine of its last twelve home games.
--Six of Lee's last seven starts went over the total.
•Reds-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Cueto is 3-0, 2.59 in his last four starts.
--Koehler is 1-1, 6.00 in his last four starts.
--Cincinnati lost 10 of its last 12 games.
--Marlins won nine of their last eleven games.
--Four of last five Cueto starts stayed under total.
•Pirates-Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM
--Locke is 0-1, 5.68 in his last three starts.
--Collmenter is 1-1, 5.16 in his last four starts.
--Pirates won three of their last four games.
--Arizona won five of its last seven home games.
--Five of last six Collmenter starts stayed under.
•Braves-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Teheran is 4-1, 3.86 in his last six starts.
--Kershaw is 9-0, 0.94 in his last ten starts.
--Atlanta lost six of its last nine road games.
--Dodgers won 14 of its last 19 home games.
--Under is 4-1-1 in last six Kershaw starts.
American League
•White Sox-Tigers - 1:05 PM
--Danks is 2-0, 5.63 in his last four starts; Sox scored 26 runs.
--Smyly is 2-1, 3.26 in his last three starts.
--White Sox won four of their last six games.
--Detroit lost eight of its last thirteen games.
--Six of last nine Danks starts went over total.
•Angels-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Skaggs is 1-1, 5.63 in his last four starts.
--Norris is 1-2, 6.32 in his last three starts.
--Angels are 16-7 in last 23 games, but lost last two.
--Baltimore won seven of its last nine games.
--11 of last 15 Angel games stayed under total.
•Mariners-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Young is 4-2, 2.12 in his last eight starts.
--McAllister is 1-4, 10.50 in his last six starts.
--Mariners lost six of their last eight games.
--Cleveland lost seven of its last ten games.
--12 of last 13 Seattle games stayed under the total.
•Twins-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Correia is 1-5, 5.45 in his last six starts.
--Ventura is 0-1, 7.88 in his last three starts.
--Minnesota lost eight of last 12 games, but is 6-2 in last eight on road.
--Royals won six of their last eight games.
--Nine of last eleven Minnesota games stayed under.
•Blue Jays-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Hutchison is 1-3, 7.53 in his last four starts.
--Cosart is 1-2, 8.86 in his last four starts.
--Blue Jays won ten of their last twelve games.
--Astros lost eight of their last eleven home games.
--Over is 17-8 in last 25 Houston games.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Hernandez 0-0; Arrieta 9-6
-- Miller 9-11; Despaigne 3-3
-- Lee 5-7; Gonzalez 10-6
-- Cueto 13-9; Koehler 10-11
-- Locke 6-4; Collmenter 12-6
-- Teheran 14-8; Kershaw 13-3
-- Danks 10-11; Smyly 6-11
-- Skaggs 10-6; Norris 10-7
-- Young 11-8; McAllister 6-7
-- Correia 6-15; Ventura 9-10
-- Hutchison 10-11; Cosart 11-9
•Umpires Trends
-- Col-Chi- Favorites won last six Davis games.
-- Atl-LA-- Five of last six Dimuro games went over.
-- StL-SD-- Favorites won last five Gorman games.
-- Chi-Det-- Eight of last ten TWelke games stayed under.
-- Sea-Clev-- Over is 8-1-1 in last ten Morales games.
-- LA-Blt-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Ripperger games.
-- Min-KC-- Underdogs are 6-5 in last eleven Hamari games.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers is 10-0 with a 0.93 ERA and 95 strikeouts and 8 walks in his last ten team starts. Kershaw (12-2, 1.76 ERA) has allowed eight runs in 77 innings, while strikeout 39 in his last three outings at Dodger Stadium. The majors' ERA leader recorded his second complete game in three starts and NL-best fourth of the season Saturday, allowing three hits in a 5-0 win at San Francisco.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
•LA DODGERS are 34-7 (+25.1 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 4.1, OPPONENT 1.8.
•COLORADO is 20-5 UNDER (+14.7 Units) versus an National League team with a batting average of .245 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 3.3, OPPONENT 3.6.
•BALTIMORE is 20-4 (+16.8 Units) against the run line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.4, OPPONENT 3.3.
•CLAYTON KERSHAW is 15-0 (+15.0 Units) against the money line against National League East opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was KERSHAW 5.5, OPPONENT 1.7.
•CHRIS YOUNG is 11-1 UNDER (+10.2 Units) versus an America League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season.
The average score was YOUNG 2.7, OPPONENT 2.8.
•JEFF LOCKE is 6-19 (-15.1 Units) against the run line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was LOCKE 3.3, OPPONENT 5.2.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (ATLANTA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (National League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start.
(54-5 since 1997.) (91.5%, +43.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -220
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 2.5 (Average run differential = +2.9)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +2.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2, +8.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-2, +19.3 units).
•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (BALTIMORE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(64-23 since 1997.) (73.6%, +44.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (58-29)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: +106
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 54 (62.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2, +5.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-9, +15.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (35-14, +23.5 units).
•Play Under - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (MINNESOTA) - team with a poor on base percentage (<=.320) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.300 to 1.350) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (AL).
(60-23 since 1997.) (72.3%, +34.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.8, Money Line=-113
The average score in these games was: Team 3.6, Opponent 4.2 (Total runs scored = 7.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 44 (54.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-4, +14.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (31-6, +24.1 units).
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w-thumbs!^
