Service Plays Thursday 7/10/14

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Baseball Crusher
Chicago White Sox -121 over Boston Red Sox - pending
New York Mets -105 over Atlanta Braves
(System Record: 58-0, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 58-41

Rest of the Plays
Baltimore Orioles +104 over Washington Nationals
Chicago White Sox +140 over Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs +1.5 over Cincy Reds


 

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Soccer Crusher
Shanghai Shenhua + Guangzhou Evergrande OVER 2.5
This match is happening in China
(System Record: 605-21, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 605-499-86
 
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This pitcher is churning out high totals
Stephen Campbell

Texas Rangers pitcher Colby Lewis has been an Over machine recently, evidenced by seven of his past eight starts going above the total. Lewis gets the nod for Thursday's meeting with the Los Angeles Angels in Arlington.

The Halos are presently -125 faves with a total of 10, per BetOnline.com.
 
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Brewers lights out with this ump behind home plate
Stephen Campbell

Jeff Kellogg will be calling balls and strikes for Thursday's matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies which should put a smile on the faces of Brewers backers. In their last 10 games with Kellogg behind the dish, the Brewers are 8-2.

The Brew Crew are currently heavy -200 home faves with an O/U of 8.5, per BetOnline.com.
 
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Citi Field an Over haven as of late
Stephen Campbell

Smart money has been on the Over at Citi Field as of late. Six of the New York Mets' last seven games in The Big Apple have gone over the total. The Metropolitans host the Atlanta Braves Thursday evening.

BetOnline.com currently has the game listed as a pick 'em with an O/U of 7.5.
 
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Reds owning Cubs with Bailey on the mound
Stephen Campbell

The Cincinnati Reds and pitcher Homer Bailey have been dominating the Chicago Cubs as of late. In Bailey's last 11 starts versus the North Siders, the Reds are a blazing hot 10-1. They'll have the opportunity to make that 11-1 when the veteran takes the mound against the Cubbies at Great American Ball Park Thursday.

BetOnline.com currently has the Reds as -173 faves on the moneyline with a total of eight.
 
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Bucs struggling mightily at Busch Stadium
Stephen Campbell

Busch Stadium has not been kind to the Pittsburgh Pirates recently. The Bucs are just 2-10 in their last 12 trips to St. Louis, but they'll have an opportunity to improve that record Thursday against the Cardinals.

BetOnline.com currently lists the Cards as -125 favorites on the moneyline with a total of eight.
 
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Three slumping MLB bets to beware before the All-Star Break
By JASON LOGAN

The baseball season doesn’t offer players many breathers during the 162-game gauntlet from April to October. That’s why the MLB All-Star Break is always a big deal – even if guys aren’t featured in the annual showcase of baseball’s top talents.

Some teams are closing in on their division leaders and look at the final stretch before the break as a perfect time to put their heads down and go all out before some time off. Others clubs, the ones sliding back in the standings, are counting the days until time away from the diamond, clubhouse and probing media and may not be 100 percent focused on the schedule ahead.

Here are three teams to be wary of in the final week of MLB betting action before the All-Star Break.

Boston Red Sox (39-51, -2257 units)

Whatever you do with Boston after the All-Star break is another story. The Red Sox are a second half team, as evidenced by their late push and World Series run last year. But right now, the BoSox stink and can’t wait for a break from the unforgiving fan base and blood-thirsty media in Beantown.

Boston, which has lost four in a row and seven of its last 10 heading into Wednesday, closes a home series with the White Sox before traveling to Houston for three games before the break. And even though they’ve been crap, expect the Red Sox to carry a big price tag against a Houston team that is showing some fight.

Texas Rangers (38-52, -1639 units)

Speaking of the Astros putting up their dukes, the Rangers were on the other end of that one-two punch, losing back-to-back games to Houston to start this week. Texas has been plagued with injuries all season and hasn’t been the same since Prince Fielder went down in late May, going 9-17 in June and limping out to a 1-7 start to July.

The team swallowed its gum when ace Yu Darvish was struck in the head by a line drive while practicing in the outfield Tuesday. The club’s philosophy for the rest of the week is “just survive”. That should have them dreaming of poolside loungers and room service - not an upcoming four-game series with the Angels. If any team needs a break, it’s the Rangers.

San Francisco Giants (49-41, +432 units)

The Giants have had some tough sledding recently, with a schedule that featured home series against Cincinnati and St. Louis and a current interleague set across the bay in Oakland. That stretch, coupled with a floundering offense, has handed Giants backers a 3-7 skid in the club’s last 10 games. San Francisco is counting down the days to the break.

Part of that has to do with the health of key bats Pablo Sandoval, Marco Scutaro, and Angel Pagan. Sandoval returned to the lineup after suffering s bruised elbow this weekend while the other two take steps toward recovery. The Giants have their sights on a second-half push, not the remaining games versus Oakland and Arizona before the All-Star hiatus.
 
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Making dollars - and sense - out of baseball betting's information overload
By MARC MELTZER

Sports betting can be easy for some people. They just pick their favorite team and bet. That’s not how I roll.

In all sports, there are variables like weather, special situations, home or road, injuries on so on. Over the years, baseball has one-upped the data and information available by all of the other sports. The back of an old baseball card will show you that it’s always been a game with plenty of statistics, but there’s been an information explosion.

Baseball statistics started to change about 20 years ago and have really blossomed with the rise in popularity of sports betting and fantasy sports. The information available to bet on baseball is both exciting and mind numbing.

A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that fatigue sets in for anyone that bets a lot of MLB games. That fatigue is in large part because of the sometimes overwhelming amount of information available.

I’ve already gone through the basics of my methodology in picking games. It may be more complex than what you go through, but it may not. Today, I wanted to look at some of the specific information that I use and why I use it.

Trends

Current trends play more of a role in my baseball betting than any other sport. The length of the baseball season lends itself to trends being more prevalent than other sports. Historical trends may matter in football or basketball but they really don’t seem to have much of an effect on baseball games. Current and recent trends are a different story.

At the time I’m writing this, favorites have won 55.43 percent of the games while underdogs have won only 44.57 percent of the games. Zooming into this information shows that home teams have won only 51.27 percent of the games while road teams have won 48.73 percent of the games.

This shows me that there was some value on the underdogs in the past month. My betting accounts show the same thing. You can find this and more information on the Covers Baseball trends page.

My trend watching continues into mainstream baseball information. Every day before I bet, I look to see how teams have done in their past 10 games. There’s nothing scientific here but I like when teams I bet aren’t on a cold streak.

It may or may not affect certain bets. This information is available anywhere but I like to get it from MLB.com. It gives me an excuse to see what’s happening in mainstream baseball media.

Data

I study starting pitchers more than any other position in baseball. They have the ball on every play of the game. In fact, there’s no game without a pitcher. I hate pitchers but they’re the backbone of my baseball handicapping. They’re also the bane of my existence in fantasy baseball.

I always start with two mainstream fantasy data points. The first thing I check is the batting average against a pitcher. If that looks good, I move to WHIP (Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched). These simple data points let me know whether or not I want to move forward looking at a particular pitcher. The lower the BAA and WHIP, the more likely I’ll dig deeper into those games.

My next step is to make sure that the pitchers keep the ball in the park. High ground-ball rate and low home run rates are my friends. After drilling through some other pitcher data, I’ll check the strikeout percentage. Pitchers that strike guys out and keep the hit balls on the ground increase their chances that they’ll either be on my betting ticket, fantasy team or both.

Situational

The last things I look at are ballpark and weather. This information comes in handy when I’m considering totals. Hazy, hot and humid days often lead to juicy fly balls. If there’s a fly-ball pitcher on the mound, I’m more apt to consider an Over bet. At the same time, the bookmakers track this information and may adjust for it. There is a nifty iPhone app called Home Run Weather that will give you this information for any game at any time.

I love baseball and I love all of the data I can dig through to make educated bets. When it comes to useless and random trends that have no real affect on bets, football takes the cake. I cringe when I see something like the Jets are 99-0 on Sunday’s where the quarterback’s grandmother makes instant coffee on the Thursday before the game.

I’m thankful that baseball isn’t as popular as football so that I can easily avoid the noise and simply find situations, trends and data points that are meaningful – and profitable.
 

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Soccer Crusher
Shanghai Shenhua + Guangzhou Evergrande OVER 2.5
This match is happening in China
(System Record: 605-21, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 605-499-86


Yesterdays game was a push, soccer regulation time ended as a draw, stake returned.


Soccer Crusher
Netherlands PK +130 over Argentina
This match is happening in FIFA
(System Record: 605-21, lost last game)
Overall Record: 605-498-86

Thanks for the early posting. SB
 

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Hondo

The ‘Stros soared past the Rangers Wednesday night, which enabled Hondo to bring his deficit back down to 1,350 langfords.
Thursday: Mr. Aitch expects Scott to be great in the battle for Bay bragging rights — 10 units on the A’s cutting the Giants down to size.
 

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
THURSDAY, JULY 10th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________



***** Thursday, 7/10/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_________________________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #15
The baseball season doesn’t offer players many breathers during the 162-game gauntlet from April to October. That’s why the MLB All-Star Break is always a big deal – even if guys aren’t featured in the annual showcase of baseball’s top talents.

Some teams are closing in on their division leaders and look at the final stretch before the break as a perfect time to put their heads down and go all out before some time off. Others clubs, the ones sliding back in the standings, are counting the days until time away from the diamond, clubhouse and probing media and may not be 100 percent focused on the schedule ahead.

According to StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst James Vogel here are three teams to watch in the final week of Major League Baseball betting action before the All-Star Break.

•Boston Red Sox (39-51, -2257 units)
Whatever you do with Boston after the All-Star break is another story. The Red Sox are a second half team, as evidenced by their late push and World Series run last year. But right now, the BoSox stink and can’t wait for a break from the unforgiving fan base and blood-thirsty media in Beantown.

Boston, which has lost four in a row and seven of its last 10 heading into Wednesday, closes a home series with the White Sox before traveling to Houston for three games before the break. And even though they’ve been crap, expect the Red Sox to carry a big price tag against a Houston team that is showing some fight.

•Texas Rangers (38-52, -1639 units)
Speaking of the Astros putting up their dukes, the Rangers were on the other end of that one-two punch, losing back-to-back games to Houston to start this week. Texas has been plagued with injuries all season and hasn’t been the same since Prince Fielder went down in late May, going 9-17 in June and limping out to a 1-7 start to July.

The team swallowed its gum when ace Yu Darvish was struck in the head by a line drive while practicing in the outfield Tuesday. The club’s philosophy for the rest of the week is “just survive”. That should have them dreaming of poolside loungers and room service - not an upcoming four-game series with the Angels. If any team needs a break, it’s the Rangers.

•San Francisco Giants (49-41, +432 units)
The Giants have had some tough sledding recently, with a schedule that featured home series against Cincinnati and St. Louis and a current interleague set across the bay in Oakland. That stretch, coupled with a floundering offense, has handed Giants backers a 3-7 skid in the club’s last 10 games. San Francisco is counting down the days to the break.

Part of that has to do with the health of key bats Pablo Sandoval, Marco Scutaro, and Angel Pagan. Sandoval returned to the lineup after suffering s bruised elbow this weekend while the other two take steps toward recovery. The Giants have their sights on a second-half push, not the remaining games versus Oakland and Arizona before the All-Star hiatus.

Wednesday's MLB Roundup
•Red Sox Working On New Lester Offer: The Boston Red Sox are continuing conversations that could lead to another offer to left-handed starter Jon Lester, ESPN.com reported Wednesday. An ESPN.com source said those conversations are taking place at the ownership level. Lester, 30, has maintained his preference that the Red Sox not reopen talks until after the season so the negotiations do not become a distraction. The Red Sox reportedly made a four-year, $70 million offer in the spring, but Lester rejected it. He is in the final year of his contract.

Watching with interest is fellow Red Sox pitcher Jake Peavy. "This is somebody I'm very emotionally attached to," Peavy said Tuesday night, according to ESPN.com. "Jon, we'll be friends for life. We love each other. Kinfolk we are. Me speaking on his behalf, that needs to be understood. "I love the Boston Red Sox and respect everybody, but my heart and soul is with Jon Lester. This guy is as good as anybody in the game right now."

Lester, who was named to the All-Star team, is 9-7 with a 2.73 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 122 innings over 18 starts this season. In 11 postseason starts, Lester is 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA. In World Series games, his record is 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA. He beat the St. Louis Cardinals twice last season in the World Series, won by the Red Sox in six games.

•Jury Finds Dodgers Negligent In Beating: A jury ruled in favor of San Francisco Giants fan Bryan Stow on Wednesday in a negligence suit filed against the Los Angeles Dodgers after he sustained permanent brain damage during an attack in a Dodger Stadium parking lot on opening day in 2011. Stow was awarded $18 million in damages by the jury. The Dodgers are responsible for a quarter of that figure and the two men who assaulted Stow the rest of the sum. The jury absolved former Dodgers owner Frank McCourt.

The ruling ended weeks of testimony between the two sides in a Los Angeles courtroom. Stow's attorneys argued that the team and its former owner did not provide appropriate security. The defense claimed that Stow was in part to blame because he was intoxicated. The 45-year-old Stow suffered brain damage after the attack in the parking lot. Louie Sanchez and Marvin Norwood, two Dodgers fans, earlier pleaded guilty in the attack. Stow was seeking $37.5 million for lifetie care and compensation for lost earnings. Dana Fox, who represented the Dodgers and McCourt, countered that Stow's blood-alcohol content was .18.

"There were three parties responsible -- Sanchez, Norwood and, unfortunately, Stow himself. There were things Mr. Stow did that put these things in action," Fox said. "You don't get yourself this drunk and then say it's not your fault." Medical experts testified that Stow suffers seizures from the attack and will not be able to work again. "Dodger Stadium got to a place where it was a total mess," Girardi said. "There was a culture of violence. Beer sales were off the charts."
____________________________________________

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_____________________________

Betting Notes - Thursday

National League
•Cubs-Reds - 12:35 PM
--Hendricks is making MLB debut; he was 10-5, 3.59 in 17 AAA starts.
--Bailey is 2-2, 2.76 in his last six starts.

--Cubs are 0-6 since Samardzija trade, scoring twelve runs; they had been 11-8 in the 19 games before the trade. .
--Cincinnati won eight of its last nine home games.

--Eight of last eleven Cincinnati games stayed under total.

•Phillies-Brewers - 2:10 PM
--Buchanan is 0-2, 4.91 in his last couple starts.
--Garza is 2-0, 2.30 in his last two starts.

--Phillis won their last three games.
--Milwaukee lost eight of its last nine games.

Seven of last nine Buchanan starts stayed under.

•Braves-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Harang is 3-0, 3.43 in his last three starts.
--Colon is 0-2, 6.92 in his last two starts, 1-1, 1.93 versus Atlanta this year.

--Braves lost last four games, after winning nine in row.
--Mets won five of their last six games.

--Five of last seven Colon starts went over the total.

•Pirates-Cardinals - 7:15 PM
--Volquez is 3-0, 0.86 in his last three starts.
--Miller is 0-2, 7.32 in his last four starts.

--Pirates lost their last four road games.
--St Louis won six of its last eight home games.

--Under is 9-2-1 in Cardinals' last twelve home games.

•Padres-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Despaigne is 2-0, 0.92 in his first three MLB starts.
--Kershaw is 7-0, 0.69 in his last seven starts; he hasn't allowed a run in his last 36 innings.

--Padres won six of their last nine games.
--Dodgers lost three of their last four games.

--Four of six Kershaw home starts went over the total.

American League
•White Sox-Red Sox - 4:05 PM
--Quintana is 2-0, 0.94 in his last four starts.
--Lester is 3-0, 2.13 in his last five starts.

--White Sox won five of their last seven games.
--Red Sox lost 13 of their last 19 games.

--15 of last 21 games at Fenway Park stayed under.

•Yankees-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Phelps has a 2.13 RA in his last two starts, but Yankees are 3-9 when he starts.
--House is 1-1, 3.50 in his last three starts.

--New York won six of their last eight road games.
--Indians won five of their last eight games.

--Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Cleveland home games.

•Angels-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Santiago is 0-2, 5.96 in his last five starts.
--Lewis is 2-2, 6.41 in his last seven starts.

--Angels won eight of their last ten games.
--Rangers lost ten of their last eleven games.

--Last six Texas games went over the total.

•Tigers-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Smyly is 1-4, 4.39 in his last five starts.
--Guthrie is 0-1, 8.44 in his last two starts.

--Detroit won seven of its last ten road games.
--Royals are 8-11 in their last 19 games, 3-6 in last nine at home.

--Four of last five Guthrie starts went over the total.

•Twins-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Pino is 0-2, 6.14 in his last three starts.
--Seattle is pushing King Felix back to Friday against the A's; they're going with a bullpen-by-committee approach in this game.

--Minnesota lost six of its last nine games, but won last two.
--Mariners won eight of their last twelve games, but lost last two.

--Four of last five Seattle road games stayed under.

Interleague
•Nationals-Orioles - 3:45 PM
--Gonzalez is 3-0, 0.00 (21 IP) in his last three starts.
--Chen is 1-1, 5.40 in his last four starts.

--Orioles won seven of their last nine games.
--Washington won eight of its last ten games.

--Nine of last thirteen Washington games went over.

•Athletics-Giants - 7:05 PM
--Kazmir is 4-1, 3.06 in his last six starts.
--Hudson is 0-3, 5.92 in his last four starts (0-1, 1.93 in last two).

--A's won six of last seven games, but lost last four on road.
--Giants lost nine of their last thirteen games.

--Under is 6-0-1 in last seven Oakland games.

•Umpires Trends
-- Chi-Cin-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Muchinski games.
-- Atl-NY-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Timmons games.
-- Phil-Mil-- Underdogs won four of last five Bellino games.
-- Pitt-StL-- Nine of last fifteen Drake games went over.

-- NY-Clev-- Road teams won eight of last ten Knight games.
-- Chi-Bos-- Underdogs won 12 of last 15 Hudson games.
-- Min-Sea-- Under is 11-5-1 in last 17 Scott games; faves won four of last five.

-- Wsh-Blt--Three of last four Bucknor games went over total.
-- SF-A's-- Over is 11-5 in Johnson games this season.

•Incredible Stat of the Day
The Los Angeles Angels have dropped eight straight against the Rangers in Texas entering Thursday's four-game series - its longest current road skid against any team. In their last series there, the Angels concluded 2013 by being swept in four at Texas for the first time since 1978. Looking to help Los Angeles to its first win (at Globe Life Park in Arlington), since April 4th of last year will be left-hander Hector Santiago (0-7, 4.50 ERA), who hasn't earned a victory since Aug. 18.

Diamond Trends - Thursday
•LA DODGERS are 26-4 (+20.7 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 4.3, OPPONENT 1.6.

•MILWAUKEE is 40-16 UNDER (+21.7 Units) versus an National League team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.7, OPPONENT 3.6.

•TEXAS is 6-20 (-19.3 Units) against the run line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.6, OPPONENT 5.3.

•EDINSON VOLQUEZ is 13-2 (+13.1 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was VOLQUEZ 4.9, OPPONENT 3.5.

•JOSE QUINTANA is 18-3 UNDER (+14.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was QUINTANA 3.3, OPPONENT 3.1.

•SCOTT KAZMIR is 24-9 (+18.5 Units) against the run line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KAZMIR 5.7, OPPONENT 3.1.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (National League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start.
(53-5 since 1997.) (91.4%, +42.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -220
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 2.5 (Average run differential = +3)

The situation's record this season is: (3-1, +1.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2, +7.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-2, +18.3 units).

•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CLEVELAND) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(64-22 since 1997.) (74.4%, +45.8 units. Rating = 5*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (58-28)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: +106
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 4.1 (Average run differential = +0.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 54 (62.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (6-1, +6.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8, +16.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (35-13, +24.5 units).

•Play Under - All teams where the total is 10 or higher (LA ANGELS) - below average American League hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA >=4.50), with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start.
(66-31 since 1997.) (68.0%, +33.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 10.5, Money Line=-104.7
The average score in these games was: Team 4.4, Opponent 4.6 (Total runs scored = 9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 55 (57.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0, +1 units).
___________________________________________
 
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[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]LA Angels at Texas[/h] The Angels head to Texas to open a series against a Rangers team that is 3-13 in its last 16 games as a home underdog. LA is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick; LA Angels (-135). Here are all of today's MLB picks.
THURSDAY, JULY 10
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Hendricks) 14.527; Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.190
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-180); Over
Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Buchanan) 15.167; Milwaukee (Garza) 14.077
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+180); Under
Game 955-956: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Harang) 15.715; NY Mets (Colon) 14.650
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-110); Under
Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Volquez) 14.199; St. Louis (Miller) 16.140
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Over
Game 959-960: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Despaigne) 12.138; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.099
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 4; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-265); 6
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-265); Over
Game 961-962: Chicago White Sox at Boston (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 15.942; Boston (Lester) 14.834
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-140); Under
Game 963-964: NY Yankees at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Phelps) 15.942; Cleveland (House) 14.485
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+105); Under
Game 965-966: LA Angels at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santiago) 15.934; Texas (Lewis) 14.366
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-135); Over
Game 967-968: Detroit at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Smyly) 16.828; Kansas City (Guthrie) 14.305
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Over
Game 969-970: Minnesota at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pino) 14.778; Seattle (Wilhelmsen) 13.692
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 971-972: Oakland at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Kazmir) 16.456; San Francisco (Hudson) 15.568
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-110); Under
Game 973-974: Washington at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 16.286; Baltimore (Chen) 11.650
Dunkel Line: Washington by 4 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120); Over
 
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[h=1]WNBA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]Minnesota at Tulsa[/h] The Shock play host to a Minnesota team that is coming off an 83-72 win over Los Angeles and is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU victory. Tulsa is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Shock favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.
THURSDAY, JULY 10
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST
Game 651-652: Connecticut at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 110.260; Indiana 112.139
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5 1/2; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+5 1/2); Over
Game 653-654: Minnesota at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 109.766; Tulsa 110.745
Dunkel Line & Total: Tulsa by 1; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 165
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+3 1/2); Under
 
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MLB

'Division Road Dogs'

Because hitters tend to see fewer left-handed starters than right-handed ones they often don't have the same success against these southpaws. Always in the hunt for a baseball betting angle it peaked the interest to see how clubs fared as road underdogs with a left-handed starter. Digging into our trusty MLB Betting Database revealed interesting betting nuggets. So far this season road underdogs sending out a port-side hurler won 43.7% of the games (98-126) but lost -$38 at the betting window. However, have the clubs in a divisional contest the results improved to a 47.5% winning clip (47-52) with the teams cashing +$882 worth of tickets. What really got the juices flowing was the next query looking at divisional road underdog with a lefty following a team divisional road loss the previous game. These pooches won 27-of-48 (56.3%) stuffing +$1280 into betting accounts. While there's no guarantee that left-handed divisional road underdogs will perform as well the rest of the way, the angle is definitely worth following, especially if the club is off a division road loss the previous day.
 
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Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Nationals at Orioles – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
WSH: Gonzalez (6-4, 3.52 ERA)
BAL: Chen (8-3, 4.12 ERA)

Series recap: The Nationals rebounded from Monday’s 8-2 extra-innings loss to the Orioles by cruising past Baltimore last night, 6-2 as short underdogs. The victory by Washington was just the second in the last seven meetings with Baltimore dating back to 2012, as the Nats last won at Camden Yards prior to Wednesday on June 23, 2012.

What to watch for: Since coming off the disabled list, the Nationals have won each of Gonzalez’s four starts, while the southpaw hasn’t allowed a run in his last three outings. The Orioles have alternated wins and losses in each of Chen’s last eight trips to the mound, coming off a victory over the Rangers as a home underdog in his previous start.

Braves at Mets – 7:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
ATL: Harang (8-6, 3.67 ERA)
NYM: Colon (8-7, 4.04 ERA)

Series recap: The Mets extended their season-high winning streak to four games after taking care of the Braves, 4-1 as +110 underdogs. Since knocking off Atlanta in walk-off fashion in the series opener, the Mets have outscored the Braves in the last two victories, 12-4, while winning each of the past four home meetings with their NL East rivals.

What to watch for: The Braves have won each of Harang’s last three starts, while tossing seven no-hit innings in a 6-0 triumph at Citi Field over the Mets in mid-April. The Mets have cashed the ‘over’ in five of Colon’s past seven trips to the mound, while splitting a pair of starts made by the veteran right-hander against Atlanta this season.

Pirates at Cardinals – 7:15 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
PIT: Volquez (7-6, 3.88 ERA)
STL: Miller (7-7, 4.15 ERA)

Series recap: The Cardinals go for the sweep of the Pirates on Thursday after capturing each of the first three games at home. St. Louis won the first two contests thanks to walk-off homers, while winning in more conventional fashion on Wednesday. The Redbirds own a 7-5 record against the Pirates this season, including a 5-1 mark at Busch Stadium.

What to watch for: After losing five consecutive starts against Pittsburgh dating back to last season, Miller has come out victorious in his last two outings versus the Pirates. However, the Cards have dropped each of Miller’s last four starts overall, while posting a 1-4 record in the past five home outings. The Pirates have done a solid job of rebounding off a three-game losing streak, putting together a 6-1 mark in this situation.

Tigers at Royals – 8:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
DET: Smyly (4-8, 3.89 ERA)
KC: Guthrie (5-7, 4.02 ERA)

Series recap: Kansas City finished off a series victory at Tampa Bay after rallying for a 5-4 triumph on Wednesday as +110 underdogs. The Royals grabbed four of six meetings from the Rays this season, while improving to 4-2 in the past six road series finales. Following a shaky first inning on Tuesday against the Dodgers, the Tigers rolled past Los Angeles for a pair of home victories, while outscoring them, 18-1 in the final 17 innings.

What to watch for: Detroit won the first five matchups this season with Kansas City, but the Royals grabbed three of four at Comerica Park from the Tigers in mid-June. The Royals have stumbled to a 3-6 record the last nine home contests, but Kansas City is 4-1 in Guthrie’s past five outings. Smyly has struggled lately with the Tigers owning a 2-7 record in his last nine trips to the mound, but the southpaw tossed seven innings of two-hit ball in a 9-2 rout at Kansas City in April.

Padres at Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
SD: Despaigne (2-0, 0.92 ERA)
LAD: Kershaw (10-2, 1.85 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Dodgers were swept for the first time this season, albeit in a two-game series at Detroit. Los Angeles squandered a 5-0 lead in Tuesday’s 14-5 setback at Comerica Park, while the Dodgers fell behind early in Wednesday’s 4-1 defeat as a short ‘dog. The Padres dropped two of three games to the struggling Rockies at Coors Field, while scoring just four runs in the final two defeats.

What to watch for: Since the start of June, the Dodgers are a perfect 7-0 with Kershaw on the mound, while the former Cy Young winner hasn’t allowed a run in any of his past four starts. The Padres are making their first trip to Chavez Ravine this season, looking to improve on a 2-4 record against their division rivals. The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the first six meetings, while San Diego is 13-4 to the ‘under’ in the last 17 games overall.
 
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Yankees hope Tanaka, Beltran injuries don't linger
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

CLEVELAND -- The only good news for the New York Yankees on Wednesday was their 5-4, 14-inning win over the Cleveland Indians. The rest of the day was one to forget, as the Yankees lost two key players.

Right-hander Masahiro Tanaka was placed on the 15-day disabled list early in the day due to right elbow inflammation. Then, during pregame drills, outfielder Carlos Beltran sustained a broken nose when a ball ricocheted off a batting practice screen and hit him in the face.

The loss of Tanaka is particularly devastating to the Yankees, who already have three starting pitchers on the disabled list: left-hander CC Sabathia, right-hander Ivan Nova and right-hander Michael Pineda. Tanaka, the rookie ace of the staff, is 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA, and he was headed for the All-Star Game. However, in his 5-3 loss to Cleveland on Tuesday, Tanaka gave up five runs on 10 hits, both of those season highs.

Tanaka was sent back to New York to undergo an MRI exam.

No decision was made on who would replace Tanaka in the rotation, but right-hander Chase Whitley, the winning pitcher in relief Wednesday, could be a candidate.

Beltran would like to forget the trip to Cleveland. He missed the first two games of the series due to swelling behind his right knee. He was going to be in the starting lineup Wednesday before the pregame accident.

"The ball hit the screen, bounced back and hit me in the face, in my nose," Beltran said. "It's just a fracture in two different areas. ... I feel good, my head feels good. I had a headache for the whole day, and now it's getting better, so hopefully (Thursday) it will get better and I could be back soon."
 

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