STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 6/12/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 6/12/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Playoff Journal (June 10)
The AC was working just fine in San Antonio for Game #2 and after a quiet first quarter, so was LeBron James. James scored 11 points in the second quarter to help the Heat overcome an 11-point deficit, sending the game to the half tied at 43-all (cashing a fifth consecutive Huge *5-Star ticket for our Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor, running Taylor overall record to 14-4-1, 77.7 percent in the playoffs). The Spurs won a high scoring third quarter (35-34) and while the game was nip-and-tuck the entire fourth quarter, San Antonio played a lackluster final stanza.
San Antonio led 87-85 with about 6 1/2 minutes to go and a "tipping point" just may have occurred when Tony Parker and Tim Duncan each missed two free throws in a nine-second span! The Spurs held the lead just once the remainder of the contest. Chris Bosh hit the go-ahead three-pointer with 1:17 left and James finished 14-of-22 shooting in a strong bounce-back performance, scoring 35 points and adding 10 rebounds.
“Look, he’s the best player in the game,” Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters afterward. “He has an incredible way to put his fingerprints on a game.” The Heat shot 52.9 percent as a team and defensively, slowed the Spurs, who had connected on 58.8 percent in Game #1, including making 13 of 25 three-pointers. The Spurs did make 12, three-pointers Sunday night (on 26 attempts) but made just 43.9 percent from the floor, as well as missing EIGHT of 22 FTs. The home court advantage now belongs to the Heat but no one in the Heat's locker room thinks it's going to get easy now.
"You never put them away," Wade said. "I think they always believe and it's the same with us. You can't, you won't, put us away because we're always going to believe. That's why this is a perfect, different animal, kind of series. They're the other team like us. They don't lose much and when they do they come back and be better in the next game. So we've got to come out and do the same thing."
Last year's Finals went a full seven games and many feel as if this year's is headed for a similar fate. If so, that means the Spurs will almost have to win tonight or Thursday for this series to have any chance of going the full seven games. Winning in South Beach will not come easily, as the Heat have won a franchise-record 11 straight postseason games.
Not winning either Game #3 or #4 would leave San Antonio down 3-1 and I doubt anyone thinks that the San antonio (or any team) is capable of beating the Heat three in a row, After all, with Miami's Game #2 win (after its Game #1 loss), the Heat have now won 13 straight (12-1 ATS) following a postseason loss. In that same vein, the Heat have played 46 consecutive playoff games since they last lost back-to-back contests.
Tip-off Tuesday evening is at 9:00 ET on ABC with Miami favored by 4 1/2 points (total is 197 1/2). Home teams have done well in the conference and NBA finals, going 11-3 SU and ATS. However, after going just 38-34 SU and 27-43-3 ATS in the first two rounds, home teams sit 49-37 SU (.570) for the entire 2014 postseason, as well as just 38-45-3 ATS (44.2% or minus-11.5 net games). Over players have done very well this postseason, cashing 49 of 86 games or 57.0 percent. "Zig-Zaggers" seem to be on target to earn a profit this postseason, as they'll be on the Spurs Tuesday and sit 38-30-3 ATS so far (plus-5.0 net games).
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National Basketball Association Finals
#707 SAN ANTONIO @ #708 MIAMI
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ABC - Line: Heat -5, Total: 197.5) - The San Antonio Spurs are coming off an epic performance and look to claim a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals when they visit the Miami Heat on Thursday evening. San Antonio set an NBA Finals record by shooting 75.8 percent from the field in the first half and led by as many as 25 points while rolling to a 111-92 victory in Tuesday’s Game #3. Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard broke out of his funk by scoring a career-best 29 points.
Miami forward LeBron James had 22 points but 14 of them came in the first quarter before Leonard clamped down on him on the defensive end. Leonard scored 16 points on 5-of-5 shooting in the opening period as San Antonio scored 41 points and had 71 at the half against the shell-shocked Heat. “One thing about (the Spurs), if you make a mistake, they’re going to make you pay,” James said afterward. “And they made us pay more often than not.” Game #4 is doubly important to the Heat with the NBA switching from a 2-3-2 series format to a 2-2-1-1-1 as a second straight Spurs victory in Miami would put San Antonio in position to clinch the series at home in Sunday’s Game #5.
•ABOUT THE SPURS (76-27 SU, 56-47-0 ATS): Leonard was a huge disappointment while averaging just nine points and two rebounds over the first two games before erupting for the best performance of his three-year career. He made 10-of-13 field-goal attempts and also frustrated James over the final three quarters. Leonard set the tone for the Spurs with the strong first quarter showing as he cast aside the tentativeness he displayed over the first two games. “I just was in attack mode,” Leonard told reporters afterward. “Trying to be aggressive early. Just knocking down a couple of shots got me going. My teammates found me. They did a good job of getting me involved.”
•ABOUT THE HEAT (67-33 SU, 48-50-2 ATS): Starting point guard Mario Chalmers has been a complete non-factor in the series and missed all five of his field-goal attempts while scoring just two points in Game #3. Chalmers is averaging just 3.3 points on 3-of-12 shooting and has the same number of turnovers as assists (nine apiece) as Miami is getting badly outplayed at the point-guard position. “Still at the drawing board,” Chalmers said after Game #3 in response to questions about his poor play. “Everybody else is doing their job, and it’s me that’s not helping the team right now. And I don’t want to be that guy. I don’t know what it is right now but I have to figure it out.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Miami committed 20 turnovers in Game #3 – James made seven of the miscues – while G Danny Green had five of San Antonio’s 12 steals.... San Antonio shot 59.1 percent from the field in its two victories with an average winning margin of 17 points.... The Heat have won 13 consecutive playoff games following a loss.... The Spurs are 39-23 against the spread (62.9%) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game, including 25-13 ATS (65.7%) 2nd half of the season this season.... The Heat are 4-12 versus the spread (25.0%) in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 562 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 398 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 536 times, while SAN ANTONIO won 439 times. In 1000 simulated games, 534 games went over the total, while 466 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 542 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 458 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 515 games went over first half total, while 485 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 23-19 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 25-18 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--29 of 42 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 22-16 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--24 of 41 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Miami.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games.
--Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Over is 4-0 in Heat L4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play On - Any team (SAN ANTONIO) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 Reb/G) - 42+ games.
(42-22 since 1996.) (65.6%, +17.8 units. Rating = 1*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (52-13)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 8.5
The average score in these games was: Team 110.1, Opponent 99 (Average point differential = +11.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 26 (40% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-10).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-12).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-15).
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