Service Plays Thursday 5/8/14

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[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/8/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Thursday, 5/8/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
__________________________________________________

NBA Playoff Journal (May 7)
Home teams have "taken it on the chin" (at least ATS) so far in the 2014 playoffs. However, the two-time defending champs (Miami) and the team with the league's best regular season record (San Antonio), both delivered dominant Game #1 performances last night. The Heat lost all four meetings with the Nets in the regular season but would have "none of that" Tuesday evening. Miami led just 46-43 at the half but a 24-9 spurt over a seven-minute span in the third quarter, was the game's deciding moment. The Heat would go on to a 107-86 win, dropping the Nets to 1-9 all-time in playoff games versus the Heat.

LBJ had a modest 22 points, Bosh added 15 & 11 and Wade 14. The best news Miami got last night was Ray Allen finally contributing, as the future Hall-of-Famer averaged only 3.3 PPG during the series versus the Bobcats. Allen made 4 of 7 three-pointers on his way to scoring 19 points. Miami shot a league-best 50.1% during the year and last night opened by making 56.8%! Brooklyn's starting guards Johnson and Williams each had 17 points but KG (zero points / four rebounds in 16 minutes) and Pierce (3 of 8 on FGs for eight points) both looked VERY old.

The Spurs never trailed in their Game #1 win over the Trail Blazers, opening with a 29-16 first quarter and taking a 65-37 lead at the half. Parker, off a 32-point Game #7 effort against Dallas, led the way with 33 points plus nine assists. Duncan chipped in 12 & 11 but Ginobili (so good vs. Dallas) had just two points in 18 minutes (he was 0 of 6 on FGs). Good news came San Antonio's way in that Belinelli, a 11.4 PPG scorer this past regular season (but averaged just 3.1 PPG in the series vs. Dallas), made 7 of 9 FGs for 19 points. Aldridge continued his superior play with 32 & 14 but Lillard was totally outplayed by Parker with 17 points. San Antonio owns a HUGE edge in the depth department and that was on full display in Game #1, as the Spurs' bench outscored the Blazers' by a count of 50-18!

With home teams going 2-0 straight-up and versus the number, they got to 28-26 in the postseason to-date. However, they are a 'money-burning' 21-30-3 ATS (just 41.2% or a net of minus-12.0 games). Some people may have gotten a push on the closing total of Brooklyn/Miami but most won on the over, as did all on Portland/San Antonio over. Over bettors just keep cashing tickets, as after 54 games, it's 36 overs and just 18 unders (that's a 67% win rate).

Wednesday's schedule features are pair of Game Two’s and in each case, the home team is down 1-0. The Wizards and Pacers are up first (7:05 PM EST on TNT), with Indiana favored by four points (total is 186). The Clippers/Thunder follow around 9:35 EST, with Oklahoma City favored by 5 1/2 points (215). "Zig-Zaggers" get back in action, after going a 'sweet' 25-14-3 ATS (64.1%) in the opening round (plus-9.6 net games).

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #2

#713 BROOKLYN @ #714 MIAMI
(TV: 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2 - Line: Heat -8, Total: 192) - The Brooklyn Nets were no match for the Miami Heat in Game #1 and will try to even the Eastern Conference semifinal series when the teams again meet in South Beach on Thursday night. The Nets were bullish on their chances against Miami after sweeping the four regular-season meetings but were easily handled by the Heat in the opener. The two-time defending champions dominated the second half and shot 56.8 percent from the field for the contest while posting a 107-86 victory.

Miami was well-rested after having not played since April 28 and chipped the rust off in the first half before kicking its play into a higher gear. “Having eight days off before a game, I feared the rhythm,” forward LeBron James said afterward. “I guess I don’t have to fear that anymore.” James scored 22 points and veteran guard Ray Allen made four 3-pointers en route to 19 points. The Nets also were pushed around in the interior as Miami recorded a 52-28 edge in points in the paint.

•ABOUT THE NETS (48-42 SU, 46-43-1 ATS): Brooklyn’s bravado evaporated pretty quickly as Miami operated at will on the offensive end in the opener. “Our defensive game plan wasn’t executed at all,” point guard Deron Williams told reporters. “We made a lot of defensive mistakes. We allowed them to roam free. I know I got beat on a lot of backdoor cuts.” Williams and Joe Johnson were solid on the perimeter with 17 points apiece but the frontcourt was highly inefficient. The veteran club figures to come out with an edge in Game #2 with the possibility of a 0-2 hole looming.

•ABOUT THE HEAT (59-28 SU, 41-44-2 ATS): Allen was at least partially motivated by the sight of former Boston teammates Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett even if he declines to admit so publicly. The two players criticized Allen for leaving the Celtics for the Heat two years ago but Allen isn’t fond of looking back on those times. “For me, those other five guys on the other team are blank to me,” Allen told reporters. “Regardless of who they are, you just have a team you want to beat and you have to do what you can to beat them.” The big Game #1 outing comes on the heels of Allen averaging only 3.3 points on 26.3 percent shooting in the four-game first-round sweep of the Charlotte Bobcats.

•PREGAME NOTES: Miami C Chris Bosh had 15 points and 11 rebounds in Game #1 for his first double-double of the postseason.... Garnett went scoreless in a playoff game for the first time in his career.... Heat F Chris Andersen (knee) left Tuesday’s contest early but declared on Wednesday that he will play in Game #2.... Brooklyn is 14-6 versus the spread (70.0%) after a loss by 10 points or more, including 13-3 ATS (81.2%) after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season.... Miami is 12-22 against the spread (35.2%) after scoring 100 points or more two straight games, and 11-20 ATS (35.4%) in home games after two straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN covered the spread 594 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 379 times. *EDGE against the spread =BROOKLYN. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 556 times, while BROOKLYN won 410 times. In 1000 simulated games, 545 games went over the total, while 429 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN covered the first half line 623 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 377 times. *EDGE against first half line =BROOKLYN. In 1000 simulated games, 552 games went over first half total, while 423 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MIAMI is 38-38 against the spread versus BROOKLYN since 1996.
--MIAMI is 51-27 straight up against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--37 of 72 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--MIAMI is 38-38 versus the first half line when playing against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--45 of 74 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Nets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Miami.
--Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 4-0 in Nets last 4 road games.
--Over is 4-0 in Nets last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 4-0 in Nets L4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600

--Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more LG.
--Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Over - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (MIAMI) - a good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days.
(33-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +20.9 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.9, Opponent 50.3 (Total first half points scored = 102.2)

The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (89-73).
_______________________________

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Western Conference Playoffs - Round #2

#715 PORTLAND @ #716 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Spurs -7, Total: 207) - The San Antonio Spurs have put together their two best performances of the playoffs in back-to-back games to win one series and set the tone for the next. The Spurs will attempt to keep up that pace and grab a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference semifinals when they host the Portland Trail Blazers in Game #2 on Thursday evening. Tony Parker dominated the point guard matchup over Damian Lillard in Game #1 with 33 points and nine assists.

The Spurs controlled the game from wire-to-wire in the opener, holding the Trail Blazers to 5-of-23 shooting in the first quarter and pushing the lead out to 26 points by the half in the easy 116-92 triumph. Lillard managed only four points in the first half and went 6-of-15 from the field en route to 17 in the contest while Parker got into the lane at will. “That’s a championship team,” Lillard told reporters. “They came out with a lot more energy than we did. They threw the first punch on both ends of the floor.”

•ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (58-31 SU, 46-43-0 ATS): Portland tied for second in the NBA in 3-pointers made with an average of 9.4 in the regular season but did not connect from beyond the arc until the fourth quarter of Game #1 and went 4-of-16 in the contest. “Our offense and execution has to be better,” coach Terry Stotts told reporters. “Obviously we need to shoot the ball a little bit better. The three ball is very important to us. It’s important to our game.” Lillard made at least two 3-pointers in each of the six games in the first round but went 0-for-1 from beyond the arc against the Spurs while fellow marksman Wesley Matthews was 0-for-3.

•ABOUT THE SPURS (67-23 SU, 47-43-0 ATS): San Antonio crushed the Dallas Mavericks 119-96 in Game #7 and felt the strong finish to the first-round series played a role in its start to the semifinals. “I think team-wise we played our best game in Game Seven,” Parker told reporters. “I think (Tuesday) we did a lot of the same things. I think defensively it was one of our best games because Portland has a lot of shooters.” The Spurs held the Trail Blazers to 37.8 percent shooting in the contest while leading by as much as 29 points in the third quarter and at least 20 throughout the fourth.

•PREGAME NOTES: San Antonio reserve G Marco Belinelli (19 points) outscored the Portland bench (18) by himself as the Spurs bench put up 50 points in Game #1.... Trail Blazers F LaMarcus Aldridge started slow but finished with 32 points and 14 rebounds on Tuesday.... Portland committed 20 turnovers in Game #1.... The Spurs are 12-2 against the spread (85.7%) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.... Portland is 13-2 versus the spread (86.6%) in road games after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last three seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 587 times, while PORTLAND covered the spread 392 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 742 times, while PORTLAND won 236 times. In 1000 simulated games, 554 games went under the total, while 420 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 576 times, while PORTLAND covered the first half line 424 times. *EDGE against first half line =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, 527 games went under first half total, while 473 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 36-35 against the spread versus PORTLAND since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 43-29 straight up against PORTLAND since 1996.
--36 of 71 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 37-34 versus the first half line when playing against PORTLAND since 1996.
--39 of 71 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 19-9 ATS in the last 28 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS L5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS L5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

--Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (PORTLAND) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(73-28 since 1996.) (72.3%, +42.2 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 204.7
The average score in these games was: Team 99.8, Opponent 99.3 (Total points scored = 199.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 64 (64% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (6-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-12).
_______________________________

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Nets at Heat

Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat (-8, 192)

The Brooklyn Nets were no match for the Miami Heat in Game 1 and will try to even the Eastern Conference semifinal series when the teams again meet in South Beach on Thursday. The Nets were bullish on their chances against Miami after sweeping the four regular-season meetings but were easily handled by the Heat in the opener. The two-time defending champions dominated the second half and shot 56.8 percent from the field for the contest while posting a 107-86 victory.

Miami was well-rested after having not played since April 28 and chipped the rust off in the first half before kicking its play into a higher gear. “Having eight days off before a game, I feared the rhythm,” forward LeBron James said afterward. “I guess I don’t have to fear that anymore.” James scored 22 points and veteran guard Ray Allen made four 3-pointers en route to 19 points. The Nets also were pushed around in the interior as Miami recorded a 52-28 edge in points in the paint.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened as 8-point faves in Game 2. The total opened at 192.

INJURY REPORT: Miami: Chris Andersen - probable (knee).

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "After sweeping the season series against the Heat the Nets found out in Game 1 that the playoffs are a different story. The Heat came out after half and put the Nets away with a big 3rd quarter run. Will Game 2 be more of the same? Or will the Nets bounce back? Right now the action on the 7.5 point spread is seeing good 2 way action." - Michael Stewart from Carbonsports.ag

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Nets were simply outclassed in Game 1 of this series - particularly in the second half. Don't count on the Heat shooting close to 60 percent from the field on Thursday night, but it remains to be seen whether the Nets can hang defensively for 48 minutes. We're actually looking at a higher line in favor of the Heat than we saw in Game 1, which I believe is a bit of an overreaction. The total may be worth a look here. I'm leaning 'under' after a late scoring flurry helped Game 1 creep over the number." - Covers Expert Sean Murphy

ABOUT THE NETS: Brooklyn’s bravado evaporated pretty quickly as Miami operated at will on the offensive end in the opener. “Our defensive game plan wasn’t executed at all,” point guard Deron Williams told reporters. “We made a lot of defensive mistakes. We allowed them to roam free. I know I got beat on a lot of backdoor cuts.” Williams and Joe Johnson were solid on the perimeter with 17 points apiece but the frontcourt was highly inefficient. The veteran club figures to come out with an edge in Game 2 with the possibility of a 0-2 hole looming.

ABOUT THE HEAT: Allen was at least partially motivated by the sight of former Boston teammates Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett even if he declines to admit so publicly. The two players criticized Allen for leaving the Celtics for the Heat two years ago but Allen isn’t fond of looking back on those times. “For me, those other five guys on the other team are blank to me,” Allen told reporters. “Regardless of who they are, you just have a team you want to beat and you have to do what you can to beat them.” The big Game 1 outing comes on the heels of Allen averaging only 3.3 points on 26.3 percent shooting in the four-game first-round sweep of the Charlotte Bobcats.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami.
* Nets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-one percent of the wagers are on the Heat at -8.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Heat -8
Trailblazers +7
W. Sox -130

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Penguins on Wednesday and likes the Heat on Thursday.

The deficit is 361 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

San Francisco at LA Dodgers

The Giants head to LA to open their NL West series tonight against a Dodger team that is 1-7 in Josh Beckett's last 8 starts. San Francisco is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+135). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, MAY 8 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.949; LA Dodgers (Beckett) 14.877 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+135); Over

Game 903-904: Miami at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Turner) 16.945; San Diego (Kennedy) 15.061 Dunkel Line: Miami by 2; 6 Vegas Line: San Diego (-150); 7 Dunkel Pick:Miami (+130)); Under

Game 905-906: Minnesota at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 13.938; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.300 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-175); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-175); Under

Game 907-908: Houston at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 15.211; Detroit (Smyly) 16.717 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-220); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-220); Over

Game 909-910: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Jimenez) 14.541; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.954 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-190); 7 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-190); Over

Game 911-912: Kansas City at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 15.388; Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.566 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 7 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Over

Game 913-914: Philadelphia at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 16.442; Toronto (Dickey) 15.269 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110); Under

Game 915-916: Colorado at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 15.259; Texas (Harrison) 14.390 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+110); Under

Game 917-918: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Arrieta) 15.717; White Sox (Carroll) 14.914 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 9 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+110); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NBA Picks

Portland at San Antonio

The Blazers look to bounce back from their 116-92 loss in Game 1 as they face a Spurs team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU victory. Portland is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Portland (+7). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

THURSDAY, MAY 8 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 713-714: Brooklyn at Miami (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 119.083; Miami 129.229 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 10; 197 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 8; 192 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-8); Over

Game 715-716: Portland at San Antonio (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 124.722; San Antonio 126.606 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 2; 201 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 207 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Portland (+7); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NHL Picks

Boston at Montreal

The Bruins look to bounce back from their 4-2 loss in Game 3 and come into tonight's contest with a 16-5 record in their last 21 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Boston is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

THURSDAY, MAY 8 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Boston at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 13.327; Montreal 11.876 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Under

Game 53-54: Anaheim at Los Angeles (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.164; Los Angeles 12.537 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-140); 5 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-140); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Thursday

Kings -140

Rangers -130

 

[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
Toronto Blue Jays -122 over Philadelphia Phillies
(System Record: 23-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 23-14

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Montreal Canadiens +114 over Boston Bruins
(Playoff Record: 13-6, lost last 3 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 104-80-2

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Brooklyn Nets +8 over Miami Heat
(Playoff Record: 8-7-3, lost last game and a push)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 85-92-8

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Vestsjaelland + AGF Aarhus UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Denmark
(System Record: 565-20, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 565-480-84

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
THURSDAY, MAY 8th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Thursday, 5/8/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #6
•Jeter Hits First HR As Yanks Roll Past Halos: Derek Jeter cleared the left-center-field wall with a solo blast off Hector Santiago, accounting for one of the six runs that the left-hander surrendered as the Yankees rolled to a 9-2 victory over the Angels on Wednesday night at Angel Stadium. Mark Teixeira and John Ryan Murphy each drove in a pair of runs as the Yankees took two of three games in the series to open a nine-game road trip, flashing signs of getting their offense back on track after an early-season lull. Every Yankees starter had at least one hit with the exception of Alfonso Soriano. New York sent eight men to the plate in the first inning, producing five runs against Santiago, who lasted just 2 1/3 innings and is winless in seven starts this season.

•Porcello Pitches Tigers To Eighth Straight Win: The Tigers' starting rotation has looked so impressive over their recent winning streak that suddenly a 6 2/3-inning outing of two-run ball by Rick Porcello was just "all right." That's how manager Brad Ausmus described the American League's second five-game winner following the Tigers' 3-2 win over the Astros at Comerica Park on Wednesday that pushed their win streak to eight games, the longest current run in baseball. Porcello, the closest thing to the Reggie Jackson of May, encountered trouble from the AL's lowest-scoring offense in the seventh inning, leading to his exit with the tying and go-ahead runs on base. But Joba Chamberlain induced a groundout of Jose Altuve for the third out.

•Arenado Extends Hitting Streak To 27 Games: Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado wasted no time Wednesday night putting himself alongside teammate Michael Cuddyer at the top of the Rockies' hit-streak chart. Arenado pulled Rangers right-hander Colby Lewis' 3-1 pitch in the first inning into the left-field corner for a two-run double, which extended his hit streak to 27 games -- tied with Cuddyer's streak last season for longest in club history. The hit came after a two-out single by Troy Tulowitzki and a double from Carlos Gonzalez, and accounted for the first runs of a 9-2 Rockies victory.

•Red Sox Rally Past Reds, Get Back To .500: For a team that won it all last year and thinks it has the talent to do so again, the quest to get back to .500 was becoming a little tedious. Eight times the Red Sox had a chance to break even, and eight times they lost. But on Wednesday night, backed by a couple of big hits in the late innings, it finally happened. Will Middlebrooks snapped a tie by ripping an RBI single up the middle with one out in the eighth, leading the Red Sox to a 4-3 victory. This is the first time Boston (17-17) has been at .500 since April 4.

•Wainwright Burns Braves, Joins Six-Win Club: Adam Wainwright has not let the Braves forget their loss from a deal made more than a decade ago. The Cardinals' ace has started 10 times against the hometown team that shipped him away as a prospect, and he's tallied a quality start in all but one of those outings. On Wednesday, he reminded Atlanta that it gave up a pretty good hitter, too. Helping his own cause with a pair of hits and runs scored, Wainwright pitched the Cardinals back on track with a 7-1 victory in front of 21,796 at Turner Field.

Help actually came from all over, as Peter Bourjos, Matt Holliday and Matt Carpenter each produced three-hit games on a night when the Cardinals reached the 13-hit mark for the fifth time this year. The team scored four of its runs with two outs and went 5-for-12 with runners in scoring position. The offense was unrelenting, too, scoring in five separate innings and chasing Atlanta starter Mike Minor out of the game with one out in the fifth. "I wish we didn't have an off-day tomorrow because of how well we swung the bats today," Bourjos said. "It would be nice to keep this rolling."

•Blue Jays Back Brilliant Buehrle With 9-Run 7th: Mark Buehrle is off to such a great start this season that manager John Gibbons is beginning to run out of words to describe his outings. Toronto's veteran left-hander is off to one of the best starts of his 15-year career. He has established himself as the Blue Jays' ace through the early stages of this 2014 season and has showed no signs of slowing down. Buehrle was back at it again on Wednesday night as he tossed seven scoreless innings to pick up his Major League-leading sixth win of the season, while the Blue Jays' offense erupted for nine runs in the seventh en route to a 10-0 victory over the Phillies.

Betting Notes - Thursday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Vogelsong is 1-0, 0.69 in his last couple starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-1, 2.50 in his last three starts.

-- Smyly is 1-0, 1.38 in his last two starts.
-- Jimenez is 1-1, 2.70 in his last two starts.

-- Dickey is 1-0, 3.44 in his last three starts. Burnett is 3-0, 0.98 in his last four starts.
-- Morales is 3-0, 4.70 in his last four starts.
-- Carroll is 1-1, 2.70 in two starts this season. Arrieta threw 5.1 shutout innings in his first '14 start.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Beckett is 0-1, 3.68 in his last couple starts.
-- Turner is 0-0, 9.90 in two starts this season.

-- Correia is 0-1, 6.00 in two road starts this season. Masterson is 1-1, 4.73 in his last five starts.
-- Keuchel is 1-1, 4.42 in his last three starts.
-- Price is 1-2, 6.33 in his last four starts.
-- Iwakuma allowed four runs in 6.2 IP in his first '14 start. Duffy allowed one run in four IP (75 PT) in his first '14 start.

-- Harrison is 0-0, 4.36 in two starts this season.

•Totals
-- Six of last eight Dodger games went over the total; seven of Giants' last eight games stayed under.
-- Under is 15-4-3 in San Diego's last 22 games.

-- Six of last seven Cleveland home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last thirteen Detroit games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Baltimore road games.
-- Eight of Royals' last ten games went over total.

-- Five of last seven Philly games went over total.
-- Four of last five White Sox games stayed under total.
-- Over is 10-4 in last fourteen Colorado games.

•Hot Teams
-- Giants won ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Marlins won eight of last ten games, but are 2-10 on road.

-- Indians won six of their last eight home games.
-- Orioles won five of its last seven games.
-- Tigers won ten of its last eleven games.
-- Mariners won ten of their last thirteen games; Kansas City won three of last four away games.

-- Blue Jays won last four games, scoring 26 runs.
-- White Sox won their last four games.
-- Red Sox won three of their last four games.
-- Rockies won 11 of their last 14 games.

•Cold Teams
-- Dodgers lost four of their last six games.
-- Padres lost six of their last eight games.

-- Twins lost six of its last nine games.
-- Rays lost its last four home games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Royals lost five of its last six.

-- Phillies lost five of their last seven games.
-- Rangers lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last ten road games.

•Umpires Trends
-- Min-Cle-- First four Segal games went over the total.
-- Hst-Det-- Four of six Muchlinski games went over.
-- Blt-TB-- Home side won six of last seven Foster games.

-- Phil-Tor-- Favorites won three of last four Reyburn games.
-- Col-Tex--Last four Ripperger games stayed under total.
-- Chi-Chi-- Six of seven Hudson games stayed under total.

Diamond Trends - Thursday
•LA DODGERS are 26-6 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in home games versus National League teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 3.7, OPPONENT 2.3.

•SAN DIEGO is 13-2 UNDER (+10.7 Units) versus National League teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.2, OPPONENT 3.6.

•COLORADO is 5-25 (-24.7 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with a batting average of .265 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 3.7, OPPONENT 5.8.

•JOSH BECKETT is 22-3 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in home games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was BECKETT 5.0, OPPONENT 3.8.

•JAKE ARRIETA is 18-4 OVER (+14.0 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse since 1997.
The average score was ARRIETA 6.4, OPPONENT 5.2.

•JOSH BECKETT is 4-26 (-26.2 Units) against the run line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BECKETT 3.1, OPPONENT 4.9.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Any team when the money line is +120 to +135 (COLORADO) - good National League hitting team (AVG >=.275) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA >=4.50), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(30-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +26.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +129
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 4.6 (Average run differential = +0.9)

The situation's record this season is: (0-1, -1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-4, +1.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (211-239, -19 units).

•Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (TORONTO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (American League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL.
(49-17 since 1997.) (74.2%, +32.6 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (38-28)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6, money line price: +100
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +1.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 35 (53% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1, +2.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1, +10.9 units).

•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (BALTIMORE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start).
(30-8 since 1997.) (78.9%, +21.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 8.2, Money Line=-105
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 5.3 (Total runs scored = 10.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 21 (55.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2, +6.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3, +10.9 units).
___________________________________________

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Thursday, May 8

Brooklyn might be 4-1 against Heat this season, with three wins by one point, but Heat plays at different level in playoffs- they shot 57% in Game 1, with Big 3 making 22-39 from floor, and Allen scored 19 in 26:00 off bench- they outscored Brooklyn 61-43 in second half; Nets are 3-1-1 vs spread on road in playoffs. Heat is 4-4 vs spread in last eight home games. Five of last eight series games stayed under the total.

Spurs led Game 1 65-39 at half; Portland starters other than Aldridge hit just 13-38 shots. SA won last three games with Portland, after losing eight of previous 11 series games; Blazers are 5-5 in last ten visits here, losing two of three this season. Parker had 33 in Game 1, vs younger opponent in uncharted waters. Blazers are 27-19 against spread on road this season, winning two of three in Houston last series. San Antonio covered last two games, after being 0-8 vs spread before that.

Over is 34-20 in playoffs this season, 4-2 in this round.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Thursday, May 8

Boston was down two goals in each of first three games; team that scored first won all three games. Montreal won eight of last ten games with Boston; but Bruins won four of last seven visits here. There were only two power plays in Game 3; there were 14 in first two. Habs are 4-8 on power play in series- they are 6-1 in playoffs this spring, winning all three home games. Boston is 28-16 on road this season; they're 0-6 on power play in series. Over is 5-0-2 in Montreal's playoff games. Eight of ten Boston goals have come in third period.

Los Angeles won last its six games since being down 3-0 in San Jose series; Ducks peppered Quick with 37 shots in Game 2, but only goal came on power play, their only power play goal in eight tries this series. Over is 5-2-2 in their last nine games, with Kings allowing only eight goals in last six games. Under is 5-1-2 in last eight series games, but 1-3-1 in Ducks' last five games overall. Kings scored three goals on only 17 shots in Game 2; they were 3-0 in this building this year, after losing previous five visits to Staples.

League-wide, over is 34-15-11 in the playoffs, 5-3-4 in this round.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bruins at Canadiens: What bettors need to know

Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens (+120, 5)

After squandering a two-goal lead in their prior contest, the Montreal Canadiens didn't let the same advantage slip away in Game 3 as they gained a 2-1 advantage in their Eastern Conference second-round series with the Boston Bruins. The Canadiens look to remain perfect at home in the playoffs and push the Presidents' Trophy winners to the brink of elimination when they host Game 4 on Thursday. Reigning Norris Trophy winner P.K. Subban continued his splendid postseason by collecting a goal and an assist for his third straight multi-point performance and fifth in six contests in Montreal's 4-2 triumph on Tuesday.

Boston has faced two-goal deficits in each of the three contests of the series. To their credit, the Bruins have battled back in each of the games, but coach Claude Julien knows that's a slippery slope to travel. "It's the way our team plays, we play until the end," Julien said. "If we start relying on how we play in the third period, we'll be making a big mistake."

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, CBC, RDS

ABOUT THE BRUINS: Jarome Iginla's late goal in Game 3 notwithstanding, Julien has cast a wary eye toward his team's slumping top line. "This is a line that has been hot and cold in the playoffs for us," Julien told the Boston Globe of Iginla, David Krejci and Milan Lucic. "And David, he's shown a little bit of frustration, so he has to battle through that stuff." Collectively, the line has mustered 15 points (seven goals, eight assists) in eight postseason games - but Krejci has failed to tally in the playoffs and been held off the scoresheet in two of the three contests versus the Canadiens.

ABOUT THE CANADIENS: Dale Weise is providing some unexpected scoring punch in the postseason. The fourth-liner recorded his second game-winning goal of the playoffs and has tallied five times in 24 contests since being acquired from Vancouver. Lars Eller matched Weise with a goal and an assist in Game 3 to run his point total to eight in seven playoff games. The production is a welcome surprise for Eller, who finished the season with a disappointing six points in his last 35 contests.

TRENDS:

* Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Montreal.
* Bruins are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings.
* Canadiens are 4-0 in their last four home games.
* Bruins are 2-6 in their last eight road games.

OVERTIME:

1. Boston C Patrice Bergeron has scored in back-to-back contests and has recorded three goals and six assists during his seven-game point streak.

2. Subban has collected three goals and eight assists during his six-game point streak and leads all NHL defensemen with 11 points in the postseason.

3. The Bruins are 0-for-6 on the power play in the series and haven't scored with the man advantage in their last 35 chances against the Canadiens in the playoffs.

 

[jdsabre]

JEFFREY JAMES ( Play of the Day)


#715 Portland Trail Blazers +7 (9:35 edt) TNT

 

[jdsabre]

StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets


NBA | PORTLAND at SAN ANTONIO
Play Under – All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout loss by 15 points or more
87-44 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 38.6 units )
5-1 this year. ( 83.3% | 3.9 units )


NBA | BROOKLYN at MIAMI
Play Against – Road teams vs. the money line (BROOKLYN) revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, tired team – playing their 3rd road game in 5 days
70-17 over the last 5 seasons. ( 80.5% | 38.2 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )


NBA | PORTLAND at SAN ANTONIO
Play Under – Home teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games
123-68 since 1997. ( 64.4% | 48.2 units )
14-11 this year. ( 56.0% | 1.9 units )