STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
THURSDAY, MAY 29th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________
***** Thursday, 5/29/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________________
MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #9
In the American League this year, baseball bettors have been treated to a few teams that have really overachieved their expectations, but they have had to endure a number of teams who have badly underachieved as well. Today, StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst William Stillman looks at the overachievers of the bunch who are really raking in the green almost two months into the 2014 campaign.
•Toronto Blue Jays (32-22, +$1024) – The Jays just keep doing well, and they are really doing their damage on the road. They're 16-11 this year away from Rogers Centre, and that has equated into $724 worth of profits. Even on the run-line, Toronto has been massive this year, posting the best record in the league at +$1,400 (33-20). This offense is averaging right at 5.00 runs per game, and a lot of that is because there have been a ton of guys mashing the baseball. Edwin Encarnacion has 16 homers on the season, while Jose Bautista has 12 jacks. Melky Cabrera and Brett Lawrie both have eight bombs, while both Colby Rasmus and Juan Francisco have lifted off nine times each. That's a heck of a lot of power from one of the better power hitting lineups in the game.
•Minnesota Twins (24-26, +$562) – You don't need a winning SU record in order to be a winning team for your wagering supporters, and the Twins are proof of that. Thanks to the fact that this is a club with the worst pitching staff in the game, the Twins are usually underdogs against most comparable clubs. Alas, it's true that a 4.61 ERA is going to end up getting you killed, especially when your starting pitchers by just about every metric imaginable are the worst in the league. No one has more than five wins, yet this team is still way ahead of the game for bettors. Be careful, though. Minnesota has a heck of a schedule coming up with games against teams like the Rangers and Yankees, and there's a long road trip ahead in Toronto, Detroit, and Boston as well. Troubling waters are certainly ahead for Gardy’s troops.
•Chicago White Sox (28-27, +$763) – The White Sox are another example of a team which isn't lighting it up in terms of wins and losses but is doing well in totality for bettors. Even though the North Siders are just 15-12 at home, they are up over four units this year as a result. Again, we do have to throw some caution to the wind here, though. Chicago is down $254 for the season on the run-line, and it is winning a lot of close games, especially when installed a narrow favorite. There is a likelihood that there is going to be a bit of a market correction at some point. A horrid bullpen without a consistent back end stopper is going to really bite this team in the backside sooner rather than later.
Betting Notes - Thursday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Buchanan won his first MLB start, allowing two runs in five IP.
-- Vogelsong is 3-1, 1.64 in his last six starts.
-- Cole is 2-1, 3.86 in his last four starts.
-- Rangers won last three Martinez starts (1-0, 1.64 in last two). Deduno is 1-1, 3.09 in his last two starts.
-- Porcello is 6-1, 3.80 in his last seven starts.
-- Shields is 3-0, 2.67 in his last four starts. Dickey is 4-1, 3.89 in his last six.
-- Shoemaker is 2-0, 3.38 in his three starts.
-- Minor is 2-1, 2.29 in his last three starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Wheeler is 0-2, 6.88 in his last three starts.
-- Garcia has a 4.26 RA in his first two '14 starts.
-- Cingrani is 0-2, 6.19 in his last three starts. Collmenter has a 5.59 RA in his last five starts, but won his last two.
-- Haren is 1-3, 5.76 in his last four starts.
-- Chavez is 2-2, 4.50 in his last four starts.
-- Jimenez is 0-2, 10.00 in his last couple starts. Peacock is 1-3, 5.09 in his six starts this season.
-- Maurer is 0-3, 8.22 in his last three starts.
-- Peavy is 0-2, 6.59 in his last five starts.
•Totals
-- Four of last five Wheeler road starts went over total.
-- Last eight Vogelsong starts stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Arizona games stayed under total.
-- Under is 7-1 in Pittsburgh's last eight road games.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Texas road games.
-- Nine of last ten Detroit games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven Toronto home games.
-- Three of four Peacock home starts went over.
-- Under is 9-4-2 in last fifteen Angel games.
-- Five of six Peavy home starts stayed under total.
•Hot Teams
-- Phillies are 5-3 in their last eight home games.
-- Giants won seven of its last nine games. St. Louis won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Diamondbacks won four of its last five home games.
-- Dodgers won six of their last nine games.
-- Rangers won six of their last eight games.
-- Athletics won eight of their last ten home games, lost five of last seven overall.
-- Blue Jays won last nine games, scored 22 runs in last three.
-- Astros won its last five games.
-- Angels won 13 of their last 19 games.
-- Red Sox won their last three games, scoring 18 runs.
•Cold Teams
-- Mets lost nine of their last fourteen games, but won last two.
-- Reds lost ten of last fourteen road games.
-- Pirates lost 16 of their last 20 road games.
-- Tigers lost eight of its last ten games.
-- Royals lost six of their last eight games.
-- Twins lost five of its last six games.
-- Orioles lost six of their last seven road games.
-- Mariners are 6-7 in their last thirteen home games.
-- Braves is 6-9 in its last fifteen games.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
•ARIZONA is 3-21 (-20.2 Units) against the money line versus an National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 3.2, OPPONENT 5.6.
•PITTSBURGH is 12-0 UNDER (+12.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.3, OPPONENT 3.8.
•CINCINNATI is 24-9 (+19.4 Units) against the run line versus an National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 5.2, OPPONENT 2.7.
•RYAN VOGELSONG is 26-9 (+21.9 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.7, OPPONENT 3.5.
•SAM DEDUNO is 14-1 UNDER (+13.0 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DEDUNO 2.9, OPPONENT 3.1.
•RICK PORCELLO is 11-1 (+10.3 Units) against the run line in road games versus an American League team with they batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORCELLO 5.9, OPPONENT 2.2.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ARIZONA) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA >=4.50), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL).
(43-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.4%, +27.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -114.3
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 3 (Average run differential = +2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2, -0.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-8, +15.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (109-66, +29.8 units).
•Play On - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (PITTSBURGH) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) - National League, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL).
(43-12 since 1997.) (78.2%, +27.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (33-22)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.9, money line price: -130
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +0.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 33 (60% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1, -0.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3, +9.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-7, +14.5 units).
•Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (KANSAS CITY) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA >=4.50), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games.
(42-16 since 1997.) (72.4%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 9, Money Line=-101.9
The average score in these games was: Team 6.5, Opponent 4.8 (Total runs scored = 11.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 35 (57.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2, +1 units).
___________________________________________
w-thumbs!^
