Service Plays Thursday 5/1/14

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Game of the Day: Thunder at Grizzlies

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies (+2.5, 184)

Memphis leads series 3-2.

The Memphis Grizzlies will try to sew up a historic first-round series when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday. The Grizzlies hold a 3-2 lead in the tense matchup after prevailing on Tuesday in a record fourth consecutive overtime game. Oklahoma City stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have struggled with poor shooting and the Thunder are facing elimination by the Grizzlies for the second straight postseason.

Memphis blew a 20-point third-quarter lead in Game 5 but escaped with a 100-99 victory as a putback by Oklahoma City’s Serge Ibaka came just after the buzzer. “Nothing comes easy for us,” Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph told reporters afterward. “We get it out of the mud, we grind and we’re underdogs. It’s what we do.” The Thunder split two games in Memphis earlier in the series and will be trying to force a Game 7 in Oklahoma City. “We have won there before,” Westbrook told reporters. “We know what we need to do to win the game. We just need to come out and play our game.”

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, FSN Oklahoma (Oklahoma City), SportSouth (Memphis)

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma City opened as a 2.5-point road favorite and was bet up to -3 before money came back on the Grizzlies. The total opened 186 and dropped to 184.

INJURY REPORT: Memphis - N. Calathes (Out - Suspension)

WHAT BOOKS SAY:

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "It's interesting to note that while the Grizzlies are priced around a -140 favorite to win this series, the Thunder are favored in Memphis in Game 6, and should there be a Game 7, will be favored in that contest as well. Memphis has done a number of Oklahoma City's big guns defensively, and has to realize that this is where it needs to bring its best effort of the entire series. A seventh and deciding game in Oklahoma City would be extremely difficult to win, especially with the Grizzlies trying to take three-of-four from the Thunder on the road. Sharp line here, but I'm leaning to the Thunder to prove why they've been one of the league's best teams all season." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Durant might be about to wrestle regular-season MVP honors away from LeBron James but he has experienced a shaky series while being hounded by smaller Memphis defender Tony Allen. Durant is shooting just 40 percent from the field – and 28.6 percent from 3-point range – and also missed a tying free-throw attempt with 27.5 seconds left in Tuesday’s one-point loss. He also hasn’t been as assertive in searching for shots as the misses add up. “Sometimes you’ve got to be a decoy out there and I’m fine with that,” Durant told reporters. “Once the ball comes my way I have to be ready and be aggressive when I touch it.”

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Point guard Mike Conley scored 17 points in Game 5, including the tiebreaking basket in overtime, but he was close to being labeled the goat of the contest as Memphis blew the big lead. With the Grizzlies leading late in regulation, Westbrook stole the ball from Conley and raced for a tying dunk with four seconds remaining. “We’re a team that is able to bounce back from adversity,” Conley told reporters afterward. “We’ve had a lot of tough plays – especially mine at the end of regulation. For us to still come back and compete and stay focused in overtime, it just says a lot about the resiliency of this team and the focus level.”

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 1-4-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Memphis.
* Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Grizzlies' last five home games.
* Under is 7-3 in Thunder's last 10 games following a loss.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 57 percent of bets are on Oklahoma City while 63 percent are on Over 185.

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/1/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Thursday, 5/1/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_________________________________________________

NBA Playoff Journal (April 30)
Let’s hope the Donald Sterling issue is settled, at least for the rest of the 2014 playoffs, so we can all concentrate on the games. The Clippers seemed more relaxed and were the only home team to win among Tuesday’s three games (nothing new on that front). All five Golden State starters scored in double digits but none had a breakout game, as the Clippers took a 3-2 lead in their series with the Warriors. DeAndre Jordan led LA with 25 points and 18 rebounds. The 6-11 center has had a breakout series, except for his understandably poor effort in Game #4 (zero points on one attempt in 25 minutes). The Clippers were NOT ready to play Game #4 but in the other four games of this series, Jordan has averaged 15.3 PPG, 15.8 RPG and 4.8 BPG. Paul had 20-6-7 and Griffin 18 & 7 for LA, while Crawford chipped in 19 and Collison 15, off the bench.

We haven’t often seen a series like the one between Memphis and Oklahoma City. The Thunder won Game #1 100-86 but the next four games have all been decided in overtime. Memphis has won THREE of the four, including last night's 100-99 thriller. The Thunder trailed 55-43 at the half and fell behind by 20 in the third quarter, only to rally and send the game to OT. However, the Grizzlies prevailed, led by Miller’s 21 points off the bench. Starters like Randolph (20 & 10), Gasol (11 & 15) plus PG Conley (17) also came through. Westbrook had 30 points and Durant 26 for OKC, but the two stars shot a combined 20 of 51 (39.2%), including 4 of 15 on threes. The Thunder can’t win if those two shoot that poorly. Jackson the Game #4 hero with 32 points, “retuned to reality” with a six-point game on 2 of 7 shooting.

The only series to conclude last night was the one between Chicago and Washington. The Wizards closed out the Bulls with a 75-69 win, beating the Bulls for the THIRD time in this series at Chicago. The game was an embarrassment to a Chicago team which won more games after New Year’s Eve than any team in the East, yet was held to 17 points or less in THREE of last night’s four quarters. As for the Wizards, they advanced past the first round for only the THIRD time in the team’s last 13 postseason appearances (since Washington played in back-to-back NBA Finals against Seattle, winning in 1978 and losing in 1979).

The Wizards averaged 94.6 points PPG this series but their 75 points in Game #5 is the third fewest by a team in a series-clinching win in the shot clock era. The two exceptions BOTH came back in 2004 (what was in the after that season?), with the Pistons scoring only 69 points and the Pacers 73 in their respective series clinching wins. Washington’s future looks bright (the Wizards just may get the 8th-seeded Hawks in the second round!) with a backcourt which features Bradley Beal (turns 21 in June) and John Wall (turns 24 in September). Beal averaged 19.8-4.6-4.2 in the series and Wall 18.8-4.6-6.8.

Tuesday evening produced more woes for the home teams, as they went 1-2 straight-up and versus the number. Through 36 confrontations of the 2014 playoffs, home teams are 15-21 SU (.417) and 12-21-3 ATS (36.7% or minus-11.1 net games).”Zig-Zaggers” went 2-1 and are now 16-9-3 or plus-6.1 net games. Yes, the Washington/Chicago game stayed under the posted total by 40 points but the other two games went over, leaving “over players” 24-12 (67%), so far.

Wednesday’s schedule features another TNT doubleheader with Dallas at San Antonio up first (series is tied at two-all), with the Spurs favored by 6 1/2 points (total is 198 1/2). Portland looks to close out the Rockets in Houston in the second game (Blazers lead 3-1) but Houston is favored by 5 1/2 points (total is 213 1/2). Like the Memphis/Oklahoma City series, THREE of the first four games of this series have gone to overtime. Déjà vu, tonight? The NBA Network carries Brooklyn at Toronto (series tied at two-all), with the Raptors a three-point choice (total is 191).
_____________________________________

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#521 INDIANA @ #522 ATLANTA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, NBATV, FSN Indiana, SportSouth Atlanta - Line: Pacers -1, Total: 187.5) - The Indiana Pacers keep finding ways to stay alive in their first-round series against the Atlanta Hawks, and they’re going to need to find one more. The eighth-seeded Hawks can close out the best-of-seven Eastern Conference series when they host the Pacers in Game #6 on Thursday. Neither team has managed to win back-to-back games so far in the series but every time it looks like Indiana is ready to play like the No. 1 seed, Atlanta comes back and smacks it down.

The Pacers were booed in their own arena during Game #5 as the Hawks built up an 80-50 lead in the third quarter. Indiana came back and cut the deficit to single digits but never truly threatened as Atlanta earned a 107-97 victory to take a 3-2 lead in the series. The Hawks jumped out to the big lead by doing what they have done all series - spreading the Pacers out beyond the 3-point line with multiple shooters and using point guards Jeff Teague and Shelvin Mack to slash into the paint. Reserve forward Mike Scott stepped up with five 3-pointers in the second quarter to spark the offense.

•ABOUT THE PACERS (58-29 SU, 40-46-1 ATS): Indiana held a one-point lead at the end of the first quarter in Monday’s Game 5 but had their NBA-best field-goal percentage defense abandon them when the Hawks went 13-of-16 from the field in the second quarter. The Pacers changed things up after getting down big in the third quarter, inserting seldom-used Chris Copeland into the lineup to stretch the defense and anchoring disappointing center Roy Hibbert to the bench. Coach Frank Vogel told reporters he would “consider anything at this point” when asked if the smaller lineup would get more time in Game 6. “It’s a long series,” All-Star Paul George told reporters. “One game at a time. We got to go down and steal one and be the team to win two in a row.”

•ABOUT THE HAWKS (41-46 SU, 41-45-1 ATS): Scott scored all 17 of his points in the second quarter in Game 5, nearly outscoring the Pacers by himself, and Atlanta went 15-of-27 from beyond the arc in the win. “It’s the same game plan we’ve been using all year,” Scott told reporters, “spread them out and run the pick-and-roll game or the pick-and-pop game. They were worried about Mack and I was able to get loose for some good looks.” Scott and Mack combined for 37 points off the bench in Game 5 while Kyle Korver added five 3-pointers and DeMarre Carroll knocked down both of his attempts from beyond the arc.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Pacers are 0-10 all-time in series in which they trailed 3-2.... Atlanta has hit at least 10 3-pointers in each of the first five games.... Hibbert failed to score or collect a rebound for the first time in his playoff career in Game #5.... The Hawks are 13-25 against the spread (34.2%) in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Pacers are 12-29 versus the spread (29.2%) versus teams who make 6 or more three-point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the spread 679 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 304 times. *EDGE against the spread =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA won the game straight up 644 times, while INDIANA won 321 times. In 1000 simulated games, 492 games went under the total, while 478 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the first half line 609 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 391 times. *EDGE against first half line =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, 487 games went under first half total, while 481 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ATLANTA is 43-34 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1996.
--INDIANA is 40-39 straight up against ATLANTA since 1996.
--40 of 75 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--ATLANTA is 51-26 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1996.
--38 of 76 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Road team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta.
--Favorite is 27-12-1 ATS in the last 40 meetings.
--Pacers are 5-13 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Atlanta.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Over is 7-0 in Pacers last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
--Over is 6-1 in Pacers L7 when their opponent scored 100 points or more LG.

--Under is 6-0 in Hawks last 6 home games.
--Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games following a S.U. win.
--Under is 5-1 in Hawks L6 when their opponent allowed 100 points or more LG.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (ATLANTA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.
(27-2 since 1996.) (93.1%, +24.2 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -140
The average score in these games was: Team 104.9, Opponent 97.1 (Average point differential = +7.8)

The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0, +5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0, +5 units).
_______________________________

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Western Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#525 OKLAHOMA CITY @ #526 MEMPHIS
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, TNT, FSN Oklahoma City, SportSouth Memphis - Line: Thunder -2.5, Total: 185) - The Memphis Grizzlies will try to sew up a historic first-round series when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday. The Grizzlies hold a 3-2 lead in the tense matchup after prevailing on Tuesday in a record fourth consecutive overtime game. Oklahoma City stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have struggled with poor shooting and the Thunder are facing elimination by the Grizzlies for the second straight postseason.

Memphis blew a 20-point third-quarter lead in Game #5 but escaped with a 100-99 victory as a putback by Oklahoma City’s Serge Ibaka came just after the buzzer. “Nothing comes easy for us,” Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph told reporters afterward. “We get it out of the mud, we grind and we’re underdogs. It’s what we do.” The Thunder split two games in Memphis earlier in the series and will be trying to force a Game #7 in Oklahoma City. “We have won there before,” Westbrook told reporters. “We know what we need to do to win the game. We just need to come out and play our game.”

•ABOUT THE THUNDER (61-26 SU, 44-40-3 ATS): Durant might be about to wrestle regular-season MVP honors away from LeBron James but he has experienced a shaky series while being hounded by smaller Memphis defender Tony Allen. Durant is shooting just 40 percent from the field – and 28.6 percent from 3-point range – and also missed a tying free-throw attempt with 27.5 seconds left in Tuesday’s one-point loss. He also hasn’t been as assertive in searching for shots as the misses add up. “Sometimes you’ve got to be a decoy out there and I’m fine with that,” Durant told reporters. “Once the ball comes my way I have to be ready and be aggressive when I touch it.”

•ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (53-34 SU, 39-44-4 ATS): Point guard Mike Conley scored 17 points in Game 5, including the tiebreaking basket in overtime, but he was close to being labeled the goat of the contest as Memphis blew the big lead. With the Grizzlies leading late in regulation, Westbrook stole the ball from Conley and raced for a tying dunk with four seconds remaining. “We’re a team that is able to bounce back from adversity,” Conley told reporters afterward. “We’ve had a lot of tough plays – especially mine at the end of regulation. For us to still come back and compete and stay focused in overtime, it just says a lot about the resiliency of this team and the focus level.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Randolph had 20 points and 10 rebounds in Game #5 for his third double-double of the series.... Westbrook is shooting even worse than Durant – 34.4 percent from the field and 18.4 percent from 3-point range.... Memphis SF Mike Miller is coming off his best game of the series with 21 points, and two of his five 3-pointers came during the overtime.... Oklahoma City is 5-16 versus the spread (23.8%) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... Memphis is 28-14 against the spread (66.6%) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS covered the spread 602 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 398 times. *EDGE against the spread =MEMPHIS. In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS won the game straight up 525 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY won 456 times. In 1000 simulated games, 794 games went over the total, while 193 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS covered the first half line 580 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 420 times. *EDGE against first half line =MEMPHIS. In 1000 simulated games, 678 games went over first half total, while 279 games went under first half total.
*EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 45-38 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 54-30 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--50 of 84 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--OKLAHOMA CITY is 45-39 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--45 of 84 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Thunder are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Thunder are 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Memphis.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Thunder are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--Thunder are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Thunder are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games.

--Grizzlies are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Grizzlies are 3-0-1 ATS L4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Grizzlies are 3-0-1 ATS L4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's), after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season.
(106-54 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.2%, +46.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 93.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.3, Opponent 48 (Total first half points scored = 96.3)

The situation's record this season is: (5-9).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (68-34).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (342-346).
_______________________________

#527 LA CLIPPERS @ #528 GOLDEN STATE
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, TNT, Prime Ticket Los Angeles, CSN Bay Area Golden State - Line: Clippers -1, Total: 209) - Their issues with owner Donald Sterling mostly in the rearview mirror, the Los Angeles Clippers can now get to the business of closing out the Golden State Warriors. The Clippers can clinch the first-round best-of-seven series when they visit the Warriors for Game #6 on Thursday. The NBA fined Los Angeles owner Donald Sterling $2.5 million and banned him for life before Game #5 on Tuesday and the Clippers responded with a strong performance to take control of the series.

The issue of Sterling selling the team still needs to be resolved but for now any talk of boycotting games or protesting has been shut down thanks to commissioner Adam Silver’s unprecedented punishments. DeAndre Jordan, who struggled in Game #4 after Sterling’s racist comments were made public, was a different player after Silver’s actions in Game #5 and set the pace with 25 points and 18 rebounds in the 113-103 triumph. Golden State’s role in the festivities was largely discounted due to the bigger story hovering over the contest but the Warriors are by no means out of the series and will try to recapture the formula that worked so well in wins in Games #1 and #4.

•ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (60-27 SU, 48-38-1 ATS): Jordan came out on fire in the first quarter of Game #5 and fed off the emotion of the crowd with a series of powerful dunks. “I thought (Jordan) and a bunch of them, they just got caught up in it up in Golden State,” coach Doc Rivers told reporter of the difference between Games #4 and #5. “I mean they had raw emotions going into that game, and we just didn’t handle it very well... (Jordan) texted me after we got back to LA and said, ‘that wasn’t me, and I will be back.’” Jordan blocked five shots in each of the first three games and swatted away four more in Game #5 while going 8-of-10 from the field and stepping to the line to hit 9-of-17 after the Warriors started to foul him in the fourth quarter.

•ABOUT THE WARRIORS (53-34 SU, 44-40-3 ATS): Golden State All-Star Stephen Curry often gets the credit when the team plays well but he absorbed some of the blame for Game #5 as well after committing eight of the team’s 14 turnovers. “(Curry) knows he’s got to be better,” coach Mark Jackson told reporters. “(Tuesday) he turned the ball over obviously a little too much. They did a better job of being active in their pick-and-roll defense... At times he tried to thread the needle a bit too much.” Curry only got off 10 field-goal attempts in Game #5 and finished with 17 points after going off for 33 points in the 118-97 Game 4 triumph.

•PREGAME NOTES: Warriors F Andre Iguodala is averaging 20 points in the last two games after putting up 7.7 in the first three contests.... Los Angeles G Jamal Crawford, who will reportedly be named the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year, averaged 22.5 points in the last two games.... Golden State F Draymond Green made his second straight start on Tuesday and recorded a double-double with 10 points and 11 rebounds.... The Clippers are 29-19 against the spread (60.4%) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season.... Golden State is 9-0 versus the spread in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS covered the spread 491 times, while GOLDEN STATE covered the spread 486 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS won the game straight up 514 times, while GOLDEN STATE won 452 times. In 1000 simulated games, 493 games went over the total, while 482 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS covered the first half line 511 times, while GOLDEN STATE covered the first half line 489 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 534 games went under first half total, while 466 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LA CLIPPERS is 37-36 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--LA CLIPPERS is 42-34 straight up against GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--37 of 74 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--GOLDEN STATE is 39-36 versus the first half line when playing against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--43 of 73 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.
--Clippers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 5-0 in Clippers L5 when their opponent scored 100 points or more LG.

--Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 5-0 in Warriors L5 when their opponent allowed 100 points or more LG.
--Over is 6-0 in Warriors L6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
_______________________________

 

[goldencontender]

GC: MLB Play

Thursday card has 2 Big 5* NBA Playoff sides one is cashing 97% the other applies to 4 different systems. In MLB The lead play is a 5* Dog from a Solid dog system that has won 89% since 2004. MLB System Play below.

Thursday the MLB Play is on Baltimore. Game 970 at 4:05 eastern. These two have had quite the little vacation with the abundance of rain postponing there games the last 2 nights. Both teams are off losses in their last game. Those results set up 2 Powerful league wide systems from the database tonight. First for Baltimore we want to play on home favorites with a total that is 8 or less that is off a home dog loss by 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 4 or less runs. These home teams have won 10 of 11 times since 2004. Now for our second system. We want to play against all road teams that lost on the road as an underdog, if they had 4 or less hits and are playing a home team that lost by 5 or more runs. These road teams do not rebound well as they are just 1-13. The Pirates are 1-8 in their last 9 on the road vs right handers and 0-3 on the road this year with a total the is 8 to 8.5. The Pirates have never faired well on the road vs A.L. East teams losing 14 of 18 the last 10 years. Baltimore has a pitching advantage with B. Norris who has allowed just a pair of runs over 2 starts and 13 innings vs the Pirates. Pittsburgh counters with C. Morton who allowed 7 runs in 2 innings in his only start vs Baltimore and has a 4.85 road Era this year. Look for Baltimore to get the win. On Thursday we have a Powerful card that has 2 NBA 5* Plays both from big playoff systems and a 5* MLB Dog system that has won 89% since 2004. For the MLB play take Baltimore in game one. GC

 

[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
Toronto Blue Jays -102 over Kansas City
(System Record: 18-0, won last 5 games)
Overall Record: 18-12

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Montreal Canadiens + Boston Bruins OVER 5
(Playoff Record: 9-3, won last 2 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 100-78-2

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Golden State Warriors +1.5 over Los Angeles Clippers
(Playoff Record: 5-4-2, lost last 2 games and 2 pushes)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 83-90-7

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Atletico MG + Atletico Nacional UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Conmebol
(System Record: 563-20, won last 2 game and 2 pushes)
Overall Record: 563-477-83

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Crusher
Toronto Blue Jays -102 over Kansas City
(System Record: 18-0, won last 5 games)
Overall Record: 18-12

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Boston Red Sox -110 over Tampa
Miami Marlins +113 over Atlanta Braves
Milwaukee Brewers +106 over Cincy


Hockey
Montreal Canadiens +166 over Boston


Basketball
Indiana Pacers -115 over Atlanta Hawks
Oklahoma City Thunder -145 over Memphis Grizzlies
Los Angeles Clippers + Golden State Warriors OVER 209

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Santana is 3-0, 1.95 in four starts this season. Alvarez is 1-0, 2.14 in his last three outings.
-- Estrada is 1-0, 2.63 in his last two starts.
-- Colon is 1-1, 2.57 in his last couple starts.

-- Peavy is 1-0, 2.87 in five starts this season.
-- Buehrle is 4-1, 2.43 in five starts this season.

-- Tillman is 3-1, 3.94 in four starts this season. Cumpton allowed two runs in seven IP in his first '14 start.
-- Haren is 3-0, 3.77 in five starts this season. Beckett is 0-0, 1.00 in his last three outings.

Cold pitchers
-- Bailey is 1-2, 6.15 in five starts this season.
-- Nicasio is 0-1, 9.64 in his last couple starts.

-- Kuroda is 1-1, 8.10 in his last three starts. Elias is 0-1, 7.15 in his last two.
-- Archer is 0-1, 5.50 in three road starts this season. Doubront is 1-3, 8.20 in his last four starts.
-- Guthrie is 0-1, 4.66 in his last three starts.

-- Norris is 1-2, 4.44 in four starts this season. Morton is 0-3, 6.16 in his last three starts.
-- KJohnson allowed five runs in two IP in his only MLB start, for the Pirates last year against St Louis. He is 2-2, 2.86 in four AAA starts this season.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Santana 1-4; Alvarez 2-5
-- Estrada 0-5; Bailey 2-5
-- Colon 1-5; Nicasio 2-5

-- Elias 0-5; Kuroda 1-5
-- Archer 3-5 Ramos; Doubrant 2-5 Peavy 1-5
-- Buehrle 1-5; Guthrie 2-5

-- Morton 0-5 Cumpton 0-1; Tillman 0-5 Norris 1-4
-- Haren 0-5 Beckett 1-4; Pelfrey 2-4 KJohnson 0-0

Totals
-- Six of last nine Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Nine of last ten Milwaukee road games went over.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Mets' last eight road games.

-- Seven of last ten Bronx home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last eleven Boston games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Toronto games went over the total.

-- Five of last six Pittsburgh games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Minnesota games went over.

Hot teams
-- Mets won seven of their last nine games. Rockies won ten of their last fifteen games.
-- Braves won 12 of their last 17 games. Miami is 10-4 at home.
-- Cincinnati won four of its last six home games. Brewers won nine of their last twelve games.


-- Bronx won six of its last eight home games.
-- Red Sox won three of their last four games.
-- Kansas City won eight of its eleven home games.

-- Orioles are 7-1 in game following their last eight losses.
-- Minnesota won six of its last nine home games.

Cold teams
-- Mariners lost six of their last seven away games.
-- Tampa Bay lost seven of its last eight away games.
-- Blue Jays lost six of their last seven games.

-- Pirates lost five of their last six games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last eight games.

Umpires
-- Atl-Mia-- Four of last five Culbreth games stayed under.

-- Sea-NY-- Favorites won all five Miller games.
-- TB-Bos-- Underdogs won four of five Bucknor games. Four of six HGibson games went over the total.
-- Tor-KC-- All four Wegner games stayed under total.

-- LA-Minn-- Favorites won five of six Timmons games. All three Johnson games went over total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Warriors +1.5
Orioles(GM#1) -125
Reds(RL) -1.5(+178)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Nets (+3) on Wednesday and likes the Pacers on Thursday.

The deficit is 260 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play THURS: Pirates w/ Morton

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Thursday

Brewers +101

Tampa Bay/Boston over 8.5 Game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

Milwaukee at Cincinnati

The Brewers open up their series in Cincinnati tonight and come into the contest with an 8-1 record in their last 9 games as a road underdog. Milwaukee is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, MAY 1 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Santana) 16.649; Miami (Alvarez) 14.922 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Under

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 15.531; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.406 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+100); Over

Game 955-956: NY Mets at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Colon) 15.136; Colorado (Nicasio) 14.001 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 11 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 957-958: Seattle at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Elias) 13.205; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.833 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 959-960: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 15.119; Boston (Doubront) 13.995 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 961-962: Toronto at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 15.481; Kansas City (Guthrie) 14.521 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-110); Over

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 14.916; Minnesota (Pelfrey) 15.869 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 965-966: LA Dodgers at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Patterson) 15.466; Minnesota (Johnson) 14.119 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 967-968: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cumpton) 15.304; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.413 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 969-970: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.181; Baltimore (Norris) 15.631 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at Boston (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Ramos) 14.069; Boston (Peavy) 15.545 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NBA Picks

Oklahoma City at Memphis

The Thunder look to bounce back from their 100-99 loss in Game 5 and stay alive in the series tonight as they face a Memphis team that is 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a SU victory. Oklahoma City is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

THURSDAY, MAY 1 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 521-522: Indiana at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 117.406; Atlanta 124.320 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 192 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 186 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1); Over

Game 525-526: Oklahoma City at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 125.900; Memphis 120.759 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5; 180 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2 1/2; 185 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-2 1/2); Under

Game 527-528: LA Clippers at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 124.797; Golden State 125.414 Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 1; 205 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 1 1/2; 210 Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+1 1/2); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NHL Picks

Montreal at Boston

The Bruins open up their series against the Canadiens tonight and come into the contest with an 8-1 record in their last 9 conference semifinal games. Boston is the pick (-185) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-185). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

THURSDAY, MAY 1 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 83-84: Montreal at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.520; Boston 13.063 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-185); 5 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-185); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Thursday, May 1

Pacers are now 8-12 in last 20 games, 8-27-1 against spread in last 36, as they head south to stay alive in series. Indiana is 4-5 vs Atlanta this season, 2-2 here. Hawks won nine of last thirteen games. George made 10-18 from the floor in Game 4- he is Pacers' barometer. Hawks' bench was 14-25 in Game 5, after being 15-50 from floor in games 3-4- they were +50 for game. Pacers' bench was 9-21 last game, a combined -31. Three of last four series games stayed under.

Last four Griz-Thunder games went OT, after OC won opener by 14; despite OTs, team that led at half lost four of five series games. Both Thunder wins stayed under total; three Memphis wins went over. OC is 34-117 from arc in last four games, shooting under 40% from floor in all four games- six of their last nine games went over. Griz led Thunder by 12 last game, was +8 in OT (9-17). Three of last four series games went over the total.

Clippers outscored Golden State 31-13 on foul line in Game 5 win, and it would've been worse had Jordan not missed eight (9-17) FTs. He had 25 points, 18 boards after going scoreless in Game 4. Clippers won 10 of last 15 games, with 12 of those 15 going over total. Warriors won seven of last 12 games overall; under is 48-37 in their games this year, 23-18 at home. Curry was held to 17 points Tuesday after having 33 in Game 4. Warrior bench was 8-22 last game, after making 12-18 in Sunday's win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Thursday, May 1

Montreal won six of last seven games with Boston, but Bruins had lost four of last five with Detroit before winning last four series games to advance here. Canadiens are 24-9 in playoff series with Boston, but Bruins won seven of last 11 series after losing 20 of first 22 series to Montreal. Boston allowed six goals in 4-1 series win over Detroit; they beat Montreal three years ago in seven games, in last playoff meeting- last three Boston wins all came in overtime. Canadiens swept Tampa Bay in four straight first round; they're 27-16 on road, have been off for nine days. Bruins haven't played since Sunday.