[h=3]Dr. Bob
***Pittsburgh (-6) over Colorado[/h]10:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 719
Neither of these teams was as good in the second half of the season, as Pitt struggled after 6th man Durand Johnson was lost for the season after 16 games and Colorado really fell off after star Spencer Dinwiddie was lost for the season to injury early in their January 12th game at Washington. The Buffs were 14-2 and deserving of being highly ranked at the time but they’re just 9-9 since with their best win coming against Stanford. Most of Colorado’s wins without Dinwiddie were against teams that failed to make the NCAA Tournament and the Buffs really struggled against superior teams without Dinwiddie – losing by an average of 18 points in 5 games against UCLA and Arizona. Pitt is not quite UCLA and Arizona but the Panthers are better than the rest of the teams in Pac-12 and my ratings favor Pitt by 6.7 points in this game (with a total of 124 ½ points). The line value isn’t that significant but I like the match up of Pitt’s good interior defense against a Colorado team that can’t make outside shots (just 30.8% on 3-pointers as a team without Dinwiddie’s 41%). I also like that Pitt applies to a 63-16 ATS first round situation and the Panthers generally beat the teams that they’re supposed to beat. In fact, the Panthers are just 1-8 against teams that are ranked in my top 40 and 24-1 straight against everyone else. If the win straight up they are likely to cover too and I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -7 points.
[h=3]**Florida (-21 ½) over Albany[/h]01:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 718
Albany earned the right to get destroyed by Florida with their Tuesday night win over Mount St. Mary’s but the Great Danes will be overwhelmed by Florida’s defense. Albany is a pretty solid defensive team (they rank in the top half of the nation in compensated points per possession allowed) but the Great Danes are horrible offensively (228th in compensated offensive efficiency) and were relatively worse offensively against the better defensive teams that they faced. Albany is simply too careless with the basketball (273rd in offensive turnover percentage) to function against the Gators, who rank 14th in defensive turnovers forced percentage. Albany didn’t face a team nearly as good defensive as Florida but their games against better than average defensive teams Pitt and Vermont, who they faced 3 times, were mostly ugly offensive efforts, as the Danes combined for just 35.2% shooting in those 4 games. Albany managed to stay within 12 points of Pitt because the Panthers had a bad shooting night (1 for 10 from 3-point range and 56% from the free throw line) but my ratings favor Florida by 22 ½ points in this game (with a total of 115 ½ points), even with the slow expected pace factored in, and the Gators apply to a very good 60-18-1 ATS NCAA Tournament situation. Also, #1 seeds coming off a conference tournament win are 16-5 ATS in round 1 when favored by 24 points or less. The fact that the Gators almost blew their lead against Kentucky should give coach Donovan something to motivate his team with and playing in nearby Orlando should ensure that there will be plenty of Gators’ fans spurring their team on (Florida is 6-1 ATS under Donovan when playing an NCAA game in the state of Florida). I also like that Florida has a history of beating the crap out of bad teams in the opening round, as the Gators are 4-0 ATS under Donovan in first round games when favored by more than 12 points, winning those by margins of 30 points, 43 points, 28 points, and 32 points. I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less and as 3-Star Best Bet at -21 or less. I will also lean Under, as my ratings project only 115 ½ total points.
[h=3]***Duke (-12 ½) over Mercer[/h]09:15 AM Pacific Rotation: 824
Mercer is a pretty good team but the Bears are not in the same class with Duke and the Blue Devils have a tendency to beat up on lesser teams. These teams actually rate about the same defensively in compensated points per possession allowed but Duke’s offense is ranked #2 in compensated points per possession while Mercer ranks 114th offensively and depends too much on the 3-point shot, which isn’t good when facing a Blue Devils’ defense that defends the 3-point arc very well (30.5% allowed). Duke is once again relatively better against worse teams while Mercer’s mediocre defense was relatively much worse against better offensive teams, so Duke should be able to score very easily in this game. My ratings favor Duke by 16.3 points and a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation favors the Blue Devils. Playing in nearby Raleigh also helps, as teams playing in their home state are 144-92-3 ATS in NCAA Tournament games over the years. I’ll take Duke in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -15 points.
[h=3]**Virginia Commonwealth (-6) over Stephen F. Austin[/h]04:27 PM Pacific Rotation: 846
S.F. Austin has won 28 consecutive games but all of those wins were against teams rated 140th or worse in my ratings and their only game against a good team was at Texas back in November and the Lumberjacks lost that game by 10 points despite making 11 of 24 3-point shots to just 2 for 9 for Texas. In other words, they were lucky to only lose by 10 points. S.F Austin is actually a pretty good offensive team (46th in compensated points per possession) because they get a lot of layups off turnovers (#3 in the nation in defensive turnover percentage). However, their defense is terrible when not forcing turnovers so any good team that can handle their pressure is going to be a problem. This game against VCU is interesting because VCU is #1 in the nation in forcing turnovers and they did that against much better competition than SF Austin faced. The Rams should win the turnover battle and they’ll have an easier time scoring in the half court set than they normally do, as SF Austin is horrible defensively when they’re not forcing turnovers. My ratings favor VCU by 7 ½ points and the Rams apply to a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation. I’ll take VCU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less. I have no opinion on the total (I get 136 points).
[h=3]Ohio State (-6) vs Dayton[/h]09:15 AM Pacific Rotation: 710
This comes down to a battle of Dayton’s efficient offense against Ohio State’s stifling defense, which ranks 4th in the nation in compensated points per possession. Dayton was relatively better against better offensively against better defensive teams and the Buckeyes’ relative strength defensively is 3-point defense while they are good, but not great, defending inside the arc (45.7% allowed on 2-point shots). Dayton doesn’t depend on 3-point shots, as they take a bit less than an average team, so the Flyers should perform relatively better offensively than expected. On the other side of the court Ohio State’s mediocre offense is going up against an equally mediocre defense and I don’t see any advantage to either side. Overall I assign a match up edge of 0.4 points to the Flyers my ratings favor Ohio State by 5.2 points (with a total of 129 ½ points). The line opened at 5 ½ points and has gone up but there isn’t enough value to recommend even a lean on the Flyers and Ohio State was close to qualifying in a pretty good round 1 situation. I’ll pass.
[h=3]Syracuse (-13) over Western Michigan[/h]11:45 AM Pacific Rotation: 712
Syracuse hasn’t been playing well lately, going just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games, while Western Michigan is a pretty confident team after winning 12 of their last 13 games and pulling off two upset wins in the MAC tournament to get here. Western Michigan fits into the just happy to be here mold and the Broncos apply to a negative 2-28-2 ATS subset of a 17-52-2 ATS NCAA Tournament first round letdown situation. Syracuse, meanwhile, is likely to be more focused than normal given their recent struggles and the matchup is favorable given how much trouble the Broncos have had against really good defensive teams this season. Western Michigan has played 6 games against teams that rank in the top-50 in compensated defensive points per possession (Northwestern, Bowling Green, 2 games against Eastern Michigan and 2 games against Northern Illinois). In those 6 games the Broncos’ compensated offensive efficiency was 0.076 points per possession lower, so they were much worse on a relative basis against good defensive teams. Syracuse has a bit of an edge playing in their home state but adding that in with the match up advantage gives me a fair line of 12.3 points (and 124.5 total points). The line opened at 12 ½ and has gone up a bit but I’ll lean with Syracuse minus the points and I’ll lean Under the 128 point total.
[h=3]Connecticut (-4 ½) vs St. Joseph’s[/h]03:55 PM Pacific Rotation: 714
Connecticut is one of the nation’s best defensive teams (11th in compensated defensive efficiency) but St. Joseph’s has a well-rounded offense and has an advantage of the Huskies’ defense from beyond the arc. Connecticut actually has a bigger advantage over the Hawks defense from 3-point range but the Huskies rank 203rd in the nation in 2-point shooting. This game will come down to which team is knocking down their 3-point shots and my ratings favor U Conn by just 3 points, so the line value favors the Hawks. However, The Huskies apply to a 43-11-1 ATS first round situation. With the line value favoring St. Joe’s and the situation favoring U Conn I am going to pass on this game at this number but I’d lean with Connecticut at -4 points or less. My math only projects 128.1 total points and Connecticut has gone Under the total in 9 straight and 13 of their last 14 games, so I’ll lean Under 130 points or higher.
[h=3]Villanova (-16 ½) over Milwaukee[/h]06:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 716
Villanova mostly beat up on lesser teams this season, recording a very good 14-2 ATS record as a favorite of 9 points or more. The only one of those games the Wildcats lost straight up was against Seton Hall in their opening Big East Tournament game and I expect that slap in the face to wake up Nova and have them ready for this first round match up against a very mediocre Milwaukee team. Milwaukee is actually a bit better than their overall rating, as top scorer Jordan Aaron was injured during a late season 5 game stretch, in which he missed 4 games and played hurt in the other. The result was a 1-4 record but the Aaron returned from the final regular season game and played well in 3 subsequent conference tournament victories to get them to this point. Milwaukee beat #1 seeded Green Bay twice but the only really good team that Panthers faced was Wisconsin and the result was a 26 point loss. Milwaukee’s recent good play sets them up in a negative 2-28-2 ATS subset of a 17-52-2 ATS first round letdown situation and Villanova’s loss to Seton Hall should have them focused for this game. Milwaukee actually has a slight matchup advantage because Villanova is ranked in the top 10 in most 3-point shots taken while Milwaukee is much better defending the 3-point arc (49th in the nation) than they are defending inside the arc (232nd in 2-point defense). Milwaukee also takes a lot of 3-point shots and Villanova is 233rd in 3-point defense (35.4% allowed) while being very good against 2-point shots (43.4% allowed, which is 19th in the nation). Villanova’s great 2-point defensive is relatively less valuable against a team that takes a lot of 3-point shots but I’ve included the matchup advantage into my ratings and I still get Nova by 16 points. The situation is certainly favorable and Nova generally beats up on bad teams, so I’ll consider Villanova a Strong Opinion at -17 points or less and I’ll lean slightly with the Under (The total is 140 points and I get 138.5).
[h=3]St. Louis (-3) over NC State[/h]04:20 PM Pacific Rotation: 721
NC State has been playing well lately and the Wolfpack have the best player on the floor in ACC Player of the Year T.J. Warren. The Billikens, meanwhile, have been slumping lately, losing 4 of their last 5 games. But, while being grossly over-seeded St. Louis is still better than NC State if both teams play their normal game. However, this matchup works in NC State’s favor, as the strength of a very good St. Louis defense (8th in the nation in compensated points per possession) is their 3rd ranked 3-point defense (29.1% allowed). That’s not going to bother NC State that much since the Wolfpack don’t take many 3-pointers, as they rank 331st out of 351 teams in percentage of shots taken that are 3-point shots. So, St. Louis’s defense, while still very good, will not be relatively as good against NC State’s offense. My ratings, with the matchup adjustment included, favor St. Louis by 2 points (with a total of 133 ½ points), so there isn’t much value in this game. I’d lean with NC State at +3 ½ or more.
[h=3]Manhattan (+16 ½) over Louisville[/h]06:50 PM Pacific Rotation: 723
Manhattan doesn’t necessarily match up well with Louisville offensively, as the Jaspers are worse than average when it comes to turning the ball over and the Cardinals thrive on causing miscues (#2 in the nation in defensive turnovers). However, Louisville was relatively worse against better defensive teams and Manhattan ranks 22nd in the nation in compensated points per possession allowed when their top two defensive players (and top two scorers) George Beamon and Michael Alvarado are both playing. Manhattan plays a physical style of defense that leads to a lot of fouls and a lot of free throws taken by their opponents (their opponents attempted more free throws than field goals this season). That’s actually a good thing against a Louisville team that ranks 304th in the nation in free throw shooting at 65.9%. Overall the matchups are about even and my ratings favor Louisville by just 15 points (with a total of 145 points). The line opened at 15 ½ and has gone up and Louisville applies to a negative 26-53-2 ATS first round letdown based on winning their conference tournament. Manhattan won their conference tournament too and both teams enter this tournament after winning and covering all 3 games in their respective conference tournament. That favors Manhattan historically too, as NCAA Tournament dogs of 8 points or more are 12-1 ATS if both teams have covered the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. The thing holding me back is Louisville’s 15-7 ATS mark this season as favorite of 12 points or more. I’ll still lean with Manhattan plus the points and I’ll consider the Jaspers a Strong Opinion at +17 or more.
[h=3]Byu (+5 ½) vs Oregon[/h]12:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 725
BYU and Oregon played earlier this in a 100-96 Ducks’ overtime win in Eugene and this should be another fun game to watch. My ratings only favor Oregon by 3 ½ points and the question is how much is the loss of BYU’s #2 scorer Kyle Collinsworth going to cost them? Collinsworth’s scoring efficiency is actually a negative compared to the rest of the team because of his horrible free throw shooting (57.6%) and he also leads the team in turnovers with 2.6 per game. On the positive side of Collinsworth’s stat line is his 4.6 assists and 1.7 steals per game, which will be tough to replace. Overall I value Collinsworth at 1 point and I favor Oregon by 4 ½ points in this game. As far as the total is concerned the math projects 166 ½ total points and these teams combined for 168 points in regulation in their first meeting despite combining for just 33.3% 3-point shooting. BYU is historically bad as an underdog (just 23-39-2 ATS under coach Dave Rose) and the Cougars are 0-10 straight up against teams seeded #9 or better in NCAA Tournament play. I have no opinion on the side but I’ll lean Over the total, which has gone down to 158 points.
[h=3]Wisconsin (-13 ½) vs American[/h]09:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 728
American is the best of the 15 seeds in this tournament and they’re a very good shooting team when they are able to get off a shot before turning the ball over. You see, the Eagles rank very highly in field goal percentage at 49.4% but they are 342nd out of 351 Division 1 teams in offensive turnover percentage. Their first round match up with Wisconsin is actually perfect since the Badgers don’t use defensive pressure and rank 322nd in defensive turnover percentage while not being particularly good in field goal defense (43.2% is good but not great). If American doesn’t commit unforced turnovers and they knock down a good percentage of their 3-point shots (they shoot 38.2% from long range and Wisconsin is just average in 3-point defense) then the Eagles could soar to an upset win. However, Wisconsin applies to a 90-37-4 ATS first round situation that certainly had me interested in siding with them despite the good match up for American. However, my ratings only favor the Badgers by 12 ½ points (and 123 total points) so the line value also favors the Eagles. While the match up and line value favor American the situation favors Wisconsin, which makes this a good game to pass on unless the line comes down. But, I’ll lean with Wisconsin at -13 ½ or less.
[h=3]Texas (-2) vs Arizona State[/h]06:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 730
Texas is perhaps the worst shooting team of any at large entry into this tournament, as the Longhorns have made just 43.1% of their shots and only 32.4% from 3-point range this season. Fortunately, the Longhorns rebound 39.4% of their missed shots, which ranks 6th in the nation. Aside from offensive rebounding the Longhorns excel in defending the rim, as they rank 7th in blocked shot percentage and 15th in defending 2-point shots. However, having a great interior defense is relatively less important against a good 3-point shooting team like Arizona State, who knocks down 38.6% from beyond the arc. ASU, however, is not a good rebounding team, so the Longhorns should control the glass and the Sun Devils were relatively worse this season against better teams. That has been taken into account, however, as my tournament ratings, which put more weight on games against better teams and diminish the affect of blowouts against lesser teams, favors Texas by only 1 point (with 144 ½ total points). There are a few conflicting situations that apply to this game that slightly favor the Longhorns so this game is best left alone, although I will lean towards the Over 142 points or less.
[h=3]Michigan (-16) vs Wofford[/h]04:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 732
The Southern Conference is a horrible, as only regular season champion Davidson ranks in the top half of my Division 1 rankings. Wofford hasn’t beaten a team ranked in the top 200 in the nation and they lost their 5 games to teams ranked in the top 100 by an average of 18.4 points. Wofford is actually a decent defensive team but their compensated offensive efficiency is horrible and they’ll have to make a lot of 3-pointers (they shoot a better than average 35.9% from beyond the arc) to stay close. However, facing another slow tempo team like Michigan will help keep this game close because there will be fewer possessions for the Wolverines to stretch out the lead. In this case, the difference in tempo from an average game is worth 1.7 points but my ratings still favor Michigan by 16 points in this game (with a total of 126 points). The Wolverines apply to a 30-7-3 ATS first round situation and I’ll consider Michigan a Strong Opinion at -16 or less and a lean at -16 ½.
[h=3]Harvard (+3) over Cincinnati[/h]11:10 AM Pacific Rotation: 733
Harvard upset #3 seeded New Mexico in the first round last season as a 14th seed and this year’s Crimson are ranked a bit higher in my ratings. Harvard is a well balanced team that is good on both sides of the ball. Last year the Crimson had a perfect draw against a New Mexico team that ranked 215th in the nation in 3-point defense. Cincinnati defends well all over the court and their 31.9% 3-point defense should keep Harvard from going nuts from the outside. However, Harvard is a good defensive team (30th in compensated points per possession allowed) and Cincinnati can struggle offensively because of their bad shooting (243rd in effective field goal percentage). I think Harvard is a bit underrated and my ratings favor the Bearcats by just ½ a point. I’ll lean with Harvard at +2 points or higher and I have no opinion on the total (I project 123 ½ points, which is too close to the actual line).
[h=3]Delaware (+14) over Michigan State[/h]01:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 735
Delaware is no pushover, as the Blue Hens have a guard oriented team that doesn’t make mistakes (4th in the nation in fewest offensive turnovers per possession) and have 3 players averaging 18 points per game or more (all guards). Delaware has faced two NCAA caliber teams in Villanova and Ohio State and they lost those two games on the road by an average of just 8 points, so don’t be surprised if the Hens are competitive against the Spartans. Delaware struggled a bit near the end of their conference season but that was partially due to the absence of point guard Jarvis Threatt (18.1 points, 5.6 assists, and 2.6 steals per game) and big man Marvin King-Davis (first big man off the bench), who were both suspended for 9 games. Delaware has won 12 games in a row with Threatt running the show, so they’re a bit underrated. Michigan State had some key injuries this season too (4 starters missed a total of 23 games) and the Spartans were 12-5 when at least one of the starters was out and 14-3 in games with all 5 starters playing (losses to North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio State). Michigan State’s rating in those 17 games with all 5 starters playing is a couple of points better than their overall rating and would put them at #6 in my ratings. The adjustment seems to have been made for each team’s current form, as my ratings favor Michigan State by 13.7 points (with a total of 158 points) even after taking into account the high number of possessions that are likely in this game. The reason I like Delaware is a 41-105-3 ATS NCAA Tournament situation that applies to Michigan State and it certainly would be reasonable for the Spartans to relax against a lesser opponent after sweeping through the Big 10 tournament and beating rival Michigan to win the Championship. Delaware has proven that they can be competitive against very good teams but I’m still hesitant to pull the trigger on this game as a Best Bet. However, I’ll consider Delaware a Strong Opinion at +13 or more and I’ll lean with the Over.
[h=3]North Dakota State (+3 ½) over Oklahoma[/h]04:27 PM Pacific Rotation: 737
North Dakota State is a pretty good team with a future NBA player in Taylor Braun, a well-rounded player that shoots well (49% overall and 44% from 3-point range) and led his team in not only scoring (18.2 ppg) but rebounding, assists and steals. The offensively efficient Bison (20th in the nation in compensated offensive points per possession and 4th in the nation in 2-point shooting percentage) should be able to score the basketball but they’ll have trouble defending a good offensive team the Oklahoma, whose habit of taking and making 3-point shots (37.9%) works well against a Bison squad that ranks 309th in the nation defending the 3-point arc (37.5% allowed). North Dakota State’s most impressive win was at Notre Dame, which really isn’t that impressive, and the Bison were 0-3 against teams better than the Irish – losing by 13 at St. Mary’s and at home to Southern Miss (two teams that didn’t make the NCAA Tournament) while losing by 17 at Ohio State, the only NCAA Tournament caliber team that they faced. My ratings favor Oklahoma by 4.2 points (with a total of 153 points) and the favorable matchup for Oklahoma is more than negated by a 43-11-1 ATS situation that favors NDSU and an 11-30 ATS situation that applies to Oklahoma that is based on their early exit from the Big 12 tournament (a loss to Baylor in their first tournament game. I’ll lean with North Dakota State plus the points and I’ll lean Over the 150 ½ point total.
[h=3]San Diego State (-7) vs New Mexico State[/h]06:57 PM Pacific Rotation: 740
I was hoping the line on this game would be lower because I have a lot of good first round situations that favor San Diego State. The Aztecs apply to a 61-17-2 ATS situation and a 40-11-2 ATS situation and the record is 6-1 ATS when both angles apply to the same game. Unfortunately, I think the line is too high. The match up really doesn’t favor either team in the half court, as both teams rely heavily on their inside game and both teams defend the interior very well. New Mexico State did win by 6 points on the road against a New Mexico team with very similar characteristics to the Aztecs but they also lost by 9 at home to the Lobos while losing by 12 at Gonzaga and by 26 points at Arizona. San Diego State also lost to New Mexico. In fact, two of the Aztecs’ 4 losses were to New Mexico, whose great interior defense (4th in the nation in 2-point percentage allowed) matches up well against San Diego State. New Mexico State defends the rim well too with the tallest team in the nation. The Aggies have 7’5 Sim Bhullar swatting 3.4 shots per game and the Aggies have two 6’10 players that also defend well. Bhullare missed a stretch of games in the middle of the season and the Aggies weren’t as good without him, so they’re a bit underrated. My ratings only favor the Aztecs by 5.7 points (with a total of 127 ½ points) the situations favoring San Diego State are so good that I’ll lean with San Diego State at -7 or less.
[h=3]***Pittsburgh (-6) over Colorado[/h]10:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 719
Neither of these teams was as good in the second half of the season, as Pitt struggled after 6th man Durand Johnson was lost for the season after 16 games and Colorado really fell off after star Spencer Dinwiddie was lost for the season to injury early in their January 12th game at Washington. The Buffs were 14-2 and deserving of being highly ranked at the time but they’re just 9-9 since with their best win coming against Stanford. Most of Colorado’s wins without Dinwiddie were against teams that failed to make the NCAA Tournament and the Buffs really struggled against superior teams without Dinwiddie – losing by an average of 18 points in 5 games against UCLA and Arizona. Pitt is not quite UCLA and Arizona but the Panthers are better than the rest of the teams in Pac-12 and my ratings favor Pitt by 6.7 points in this game (with a total of 124 ½ points). The line value isn’t that significant but I like the match up of Pitt’s good interior defense against a Colorado team that can’t make outside shots (just 30.8% on 3-pointers as a team without Dinwiddie’s 41%). I also like that Pitt applies to a 63-16 ATS first round situation and the Panthers generally beat the teams that they’re supposed to beat. In fact, the Panthers are just 1-8 against teams that are ranked in my top 40 and 24-1 straight against everyone else. If the win straight up they are likely to cover too and I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -7 points.
[h=3]**Florida (-21 ½) over Albany[/h]01:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 718
Albany earned the right to get destroyed by Florida with their Tuesday night win over Mount St. Mary’s but the Great Danes will be overwhelmed by Florida’s defense. Albany is a pretty solid defensive team (they rank in the top half of the nation in compensated points per possession allowed) but the Great Danes are horrible offensively (228th in compensated offensive efficiency) and were relatively worse offensively against the better defensive teams that they faced. Albany is simply too careless with the basketball (273rd in offensive turnover percentage) to function against the Gators, who rank 14th in defensive turnovers forced percentage. Albany didn’t face a team nearly as good defensive as Florida but their games against better than average defensive teams Pitt and Vermont, who they faced 3 times, were mostly ugly offensive efforts, as the Danes combined for just 35.2% shooting in those 4 games. Albany managed to stay within 12 points of Pitt because the Panthers had a bad shooting night (1 for 10 from 3-point range and 56% from the free throw line) but my ratings favor Florida by 22 ½ points in this game (with a total of 115 ½ points), even with the slow expected pace factored in, and the Gators apply to a very good 60-18-1 ATS NCAA Tournament situation. Also, #1 seeds coming off a conference tournament win are 16-5 ATS in round 1 when favored by 24 points or less. The fact that the Gators almost blew their lead against Kentucky should give coach Donovan something to motivate his team with and playing in nearby Orlando should ensure that there will be plenty of Gators’ fans spurring their team on (Florida is 6-1 ATS under Donovan when playing an NCAA game in the state of Florida). I also like that Florida has a history of beating the crap out of bad teams in the opening round, as the Gators are 4-0 ATS under Donovan in first round games when favored by more than 12 points, winning those by margins of 30 points, 43 points, 28 points, and 32 points. I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less and as 3-Star Best Bet at -21 or less. I will also lean Under, as my ratings project only 115 ½ total points.
[h=3]***Duke (-12 ½) over Mercer[/h]09:15 AM Pacific Rotation: 824
Mercer is a pretty good team but the Bears are not in the same class with Duke and the Blue Devils have a tendency to beat up on lesser teams. These teams actually rate about the same defensively in compensated points per possession allowed but Duke’s offense is ranked #2 in compensated points per possession while Mercer ranks 114th offensively and depends too much on the 3-point shot, which isn’t good when facing a Blue Devils’ defense that defends the 3-point arc very well (30.5% allowed). Duke is once again relatively better against worse teams while Mercer’s mediocre defense was relatively much worse against better offensive teams, so Duke should be able to score very easily in this game. My ratings favor Duke by 16.3 points and a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation favors the Blue Devils. Playing in nearby Raleigh also helps, as teams playing in their home state are 144-92-3 ATS in NCAA Tournament games over the years. I’ll take Duke in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -15 points.
[h=3]**Virginia Commonwealth (-6) over Stephen F. Austin[/h]04:27 PM Pacific Rotation: 846
S.F. Austin has won 28 consecutive games but all of those wins were against teams rated 140th or worse in my ratings and their only game against a good team was at Texas back in November and the Lumberjacks lost that game by 10 points despite making 11 of 24 3-point shots to just 2 for 9 for Texas. In other words, they were lucky to only lose by 10 points. S.F Austin is actually a pretty good offensive team (46th in compensated points per possession) because they get a lot of layups off turnovers (#3 in the nation in defensive turnover percentage). However, their defense is terrible when not forcing turnovers so any good team that can handle their pressure is going to be a problem. This game against VCU is interesting because VCU is #1 in the nation in forcing turnovers and they did that against much better competition than SF Austin faced. The Rams should win the turnover battle and they’ll have an easier time scoring in the half court set than they normally do, as SF Austin is horrible defensively when they’re not forcing turnovers. My ratings favor VCU by 7 ½ points and the Rams apply to a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation. I’ll take VCU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less. I have no opinion on the total (I get 136 points).
[h=3]Virginia (-21 ½) vs Coastal Carolina[/h]06:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 826
Coastal Carolina is pretty good defensively but they rank near the bottom of the nation in compensated offensive points per possession, which is the case due to a combination of bad shooting and sloppy play (297th in offensive turnover percentage). Coastal Carolina played two borderline NCAA Tournament caliber teams with mixed results – a respectable 10 point loss at Minnesota and a 29 point loss at Clemson. While I don’t expect much scoring from the Chanticleers their defense is good enough to stay within a big number in what should be a very low scoring game. My ratings favor Virginia by just 20 ½ points (with a total of 117 ½ points) but #1 seeds favored by 24 points or less are 16-5 ATS, so I’ll pass on this game.
[h=3]George Washington (+3) over Memphis[/h]03:55 PM Pacific Rotation: 827
These teams are very similar in their overall rating and very similar in their statistical characteristics with Memphis being a little better offensively and George Washington being a little better defensively. Both teams prefer to attack the rim and both teams are relatively worse defending the interior than they are defending the 3-point line. So, I expect both teams to have pretty good success offensively. My ratings favor Memphis by just 1 point and GW could get a boost if #2 scorer and top defender Kethan Savage can play some quality minutes. Savage missed 13 games and came back to play just 1 minute in their Atlantic 10 conference loss to VCU. But, Savage may be ready to contribute more, which would be a bonus considering his efficient shooting (52% FG) and great defense (1.9 steals per game). My ratings like the Colonials even if Savage doesn’t play at all (I get Memphis by 1 ½ points in that case) and if Savage is 100% and playing his normal 27 minutes per game then I’d favor GW by ½ a point. I’ll lean with George Washington plus the points and I have no opinion on the total (I get 143.5 points but that number would be lower if Savage and his good defense return to the rotation).
[h=3]Stanford (+3) over New Mexico[/h]10:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 829
New Lobos’ coach Craig Neal was an assistant under former head coach Steve Alford and this year’s New Mexico team is very similar to last year’s #3 seeded squad that got ousted in the first round by Harvard. I picked Harvard to win that game because the Crimson could take advantage of New Mexico’s bad 3-point shooting defense and wouldn’t be stupid enough to try to challenge the Lobos inside (they were 9th in 2-point defense last year). This year’s team is 4th in the nation is 2-point defense (41.4% allowed) but they are just average defending the 3-point arc (34.4%) and don’t force turnovers (341st in defensive turnover percentage). New Mexico was able to beat #4 seed San Diego State twice because the Aztecs are a bad shooting team that couldn’t take advantage of the Lobos’ defensive weakness, which is also the reason they were able to beat Cincinnati, who ranks 207th in 3-point shooting. However, Stanford can shoot the ball (37.1% 3-pointers) but the Cardinal actually don’t take that many 3-point shots (260th in 3-point shots as a percentage of overall shots). If Johnny Dawkins is smart enough to realize he needs to shoot more 3-pointers then the Cardinal should win this game and my ratings only favor New Mexico by 1 point (with a total of 138 ½ points) without taking the match up into account. I’ll consider Stanford a Strong Opinion at +3 or more and I’d still lean with the Cardinal at less than +3.
[h=3]Over (148) - Kansas (-14 ½) vs Eastern Kentucky[/h]01:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 831
Eastern Kentucky is a highly efficient offensive team that makes 39% of their 3-point shots and ranks 3rd in the nation in 2-point shooting percentage at 56.2%. However, the Colonels are a horrible defensive team that has given up 56.1% on 2-point shots and 36.3% on 3-pointers while also sending opponents to the line a lot. Eastern Kentucky depends on creating turnovers, and they do rank 5th in the nation in defensive turnover percentage, but when the Colonels are not creating turnovers then they’ll give up points readily to any offense with a pulse. Teams that can handle the ball and play good defense will destroy the Colonels, as was the case when they visited Wisconsin in mid-December (a 61-86 loss). The Colonels did play well in an overtime loss at VCU, but the Rams are a bad shooting team that can get a bit sloppy with the ball at times (16 turnovers against Eastern Kentucky). Other than those two tournament teams, the next best team the Colonels faced was NC State, a team that takes care of the ball and runs an efficient offense. The result was a 21 point loss for Eastern Kentucky. On the plus side, Eastern Kentucky is 12th in 3-point shots taken percentage and 29th in 3-point shooting percentage and Kansas ranks 256th in the nation defending the 3-point arc (35.9% allowed). The Jayhawks are also turnover prone, ranking 232nd in offensive turnover percentage. Without injured shot blocker Joel Embiid (2.6 blocks per game) the Jayhawks are now more vulnerable inside and Eastern Kentucky’s efficient offense should have success. The Jayhawks will score at will though but relatively the matchup works for the Colonels and my ratings favor Kansas by 14.3 points with Embiid out. Unfortunately, Kansas applies to a 90-37-4 ATS first round situation that will force me to stay away from the side in this game. However, my math projects 154 total points with Embiid out and the Jayhawks have gone Over the total in 4 of the 5 games their defensive star has missed this season. I’ll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 150 or lower and I’ll lean with Kansas at -15 or less based on the favorable situation.
[h=3]Kansas State (+5) over Kentucky[/h]06:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 835
Kentucky’s good play in the SEC Tournament (3 spread wins), combined with the poor recent play of Kansas State (0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS) has skewed this line some, as my ratings favor Kentucky by just 3 ½ points. While it’s certainly possible that Kentucky is suddenly a better and more consistent team, we shouldn’t forget that the Wildcats had lost 5 straight to the spread before the SEC Tournament and that two of their good performances were against teams that didn’t make the NCAA Tournament field. The other, a 1 point loss to Florida, was close because Florida couldn’t make their free throws (7 for 17) to close out a game that they led comfortably most of way. Kentucky will no doubt dominate on the boards in this game but that is already factored in to the line. Kentucky is still just 3-8 against teams in my top-50 while Kansas State is 7-8 against NCAA Tournament caliber teams. I’ll lean with Kansas State plus the points and I have no opinion on the total (I project 132 ½ points).
[h=3]Nebraska (+3 ½) over Baylor[/h]09:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 837
The Huskers won 10 of their last 13 games and beat Ohio State, Michigan State (on the road), and Wisconsin and the reason for the sudden turnaround after a mediocre start to the season was an injury to ineffective point guard Deverll Biggs. Biggs only shot 43% from the floor and averaged 2.3 turnovers against just 1.5 assists per game. Biggs’ injury had resulted in fewer mistakes, as the Cornhuskers had a turnover margin of -1.4 per game before Biggs’ injury and they’re +1.3 in turnovers without Biggs. The defense has also improved, as Nebraska has allowed just 39.4% shooting without Biggs compared to 43.8% FG allowed with him. It might be tough to get past Baylor because the Huskers aren’t likely to take advantage of Baylor’s bad 3-point defense (280th in the nation) or keep the Bears off the offensive glass but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if they won this game straight up and Baylor’s overall defense is not that good (114th in compensated points per possession). The value is certainly with the underrated Cornhuskers and I’ll lean with Nebraska plus the points and I have no opinion on the total (my math projects 130 total points).
[h=3]Creighton (-13 ½) over Louisiana Lafayette[/h]12:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 840
Louisiana Lafayette has a really good player in Elfrid Payton, who averages 19.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game while making 51% of his shots, which is incredibly good for a point guard. Payton team with 6’9 forward Shawn Long (18.7 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game) to give the Ragin’ Cajuns two really good and diverse players to deal with. UL Lafayette was able to beat marginally good teams Louisiana Tech and Georgia State but they were beaten soundly by better teams – losing to Arkansas by 13 points, to Baylor by 19 points and to Louisville by 39 points. Lafayette will be able to score against Creighton but they won’t be able to stop the Bluejays #1 ranked offense from outscoring them – most likely by a comfortable margin. My ratings favor Creighton by 13 points, so the line is about right, and the Blue Jays apply to a 64-19-2 ATS first round situation while Lafayette applies to a negative 13-38-6 ATS first round letdown situation based on their upset win in their conference tournament final. I don’t want to give up any line value to make this a Best Bet but I’ll consider Creighton a Strong Opinion at -14 or less and a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 or less. I’ll also lean with the Over (154 ½), as my predicted total is 160 points.
[h=3]North Carolina (-4) over Providence[/h]04:20 PM Pacific Rotation: 842
Providence made a surprising run to win the Big East Tournament and take themselves off the bubble. The Friars actually beat Creighton twice this season as the nation’s #1 3-point shooting team (42.2%) made only 24.5% (12 for 49) from beyond the arc in the two losses to the Friars. Providence is going to need more good fortune to advance in this tournament, as they simply aren’t good enough to beat a good team without some 3-point shooting variance going their way (they were 1-5 against the other NCAA caliber teams that they faced). North Carolina struggled through the first half of the season at 11-7 and then got red hot starting in late January and ran off 12 consecutive wins before losing their final two games to Duke and Pitt. The Heels’ hot streak was largely a case of 3-point shooting variance, as UNC made 38% of their 3-point shots during their 12 game winning streak while making only 33.5% from beyond the arc for the season. North Carolina is actually a relatively bad shooting team, as they rank 208th in 3-point shooting and 122nd in 2-point shooting percentage. However, the Heels rebound a lot of their misses (18th in offensive rebound percentage) and they were actually relatively much better offensively against the better defensive teams that they faced. North Carolina’s victories against high seeded teams were against teams that aren’t particularly good defensive rebounding teams, as they were able to beat Louisville (246nd in defensive rebound percentage), Kentucky (105th), and split two games with Duke (191st) while getting crushed by Virginia, who ranks 8th in the nation in defensive rebounding. Providence is a decent defensive rebounding team, ranking 99th in the nation, and my ratings suggest that the line is fair (I get UNC by 4.2 points) but the Friars apply to a negative 13-38 ATS first round situation and I’ll lean with North Carolina at -4 points or less. I have no opinion on the total (the math projects 142 total points).
[h=3]NC Central (+8 ½) over Iowa State[/h]06:50 PM Pacific Rotation: 843
Iowa State started the season beating the crap out of bad teams then struggled against better competition at the beginning of the Big 12 season. However, the Cyclones certainly have played better recently and just won the Big 12 Tournament with wins over NCAA Tournament teams Kansas State, Kansas and Baylor. However, those wins set up Iowa State in a negative 17-52-2 ATS first round situation that has me looking at NC Central. NC Central has won 20 consecutive games and did win at NC State early in the season but they also lost to Cincinnati, Wichita State, and Maryland by an average of 13 points. The Eagles actually are a pretty good team that I rank as the 80th best team in the nation and they can beat a team that doesn’t defend particularly well because their good defense should enable them to compete if they can score near the rim (NC Central is a horrible 3-point shooting team). NC Central also depends on turnovers to win (#5 in the nation in opponent’s turnover percentage) but 1st round opponent Iowa State is #9 in the nation in lowest offensive turnover percentage and is pretty good defending the paint, which is a bad match up for the Eagles. My ratings favor Iowa State by 8 ½ points, so the line is fair, and the situation certainly favors the dog here. I’m not going to play this as a Best Bet but I’ll lean with NC Central at +8 points or more. My math projects 145 total points, which isn’t much of an edge.
[h=3]Tulsa (+8 ½) over UCLA[/h]06:57 PM Pacific Rotation: 847
Tulsa won their final 11 games and the Golden Hurricane really picked up their defensive intensity during their late season run and ended the season 14th in the nation in 2-point defense at 42.9% allowed on shots inside the arc. That could be trouble for a UCLA team that takes most of their shots inside the 3-point arc and the Bruins aren’t defensively good enough to completely shut down a mediocre Tulsa offense. If UCLA spends too much time basking in the glow of their Pac 12 Championship win over Arizona the Bruins could find themselves subject to a rude awakening, as my ratings based on current personnel favor UCLA by just 5 ½ points against at UTEP team that is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games (and 17-3 ATS in their last 20). I’ll consider Tulsa a Strong Opinion at +8 points or more. My math projects 146 total points.
[h=3]Arizona (-20) over Weber State[/h]11:10 AM Pacific Rotation: 850
Weber State was the best team in a really down year for the Big Sky Conference and the Wildcats did not beat a team this season that was ranked inside my top 200. Their 4 games against teams ranked in my top 150 were not very good collectively, losing by an average of 15 points to BYU, Colorado State, Utah State and UCLA (by 23 points) and their average game rating in those 4 games was 4 points lower than their overall game rating – which is not a good omen for them against #1 seeded Arizona. The Wildcats dominated mediocre teams this season, as they were relatively better offensively against worse defensive teams while sometimes struggling offensively against the better defensive teams in the Pac 12. Weber is not a good defensive, as they rank 214th in my compensated defensive ratings. Arizona will have no trouble scoring and their defense is always intense, even against weaker teams. My ratings favor Arizona by 21 points and the Wildcats apply to a 30-7-3 ATS first round situation. I’ll consider Arizona a Strong Opinion at -20 points or less and I’d take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at -19 or less.
[h=3]Gonzaga (+2) over Oklahoma State[/h]01:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 852
Gonzaga entered last year’s tournament as #1 in the polls and with a #1 seed but were knocked out in the second round by a vastly underrated Wichita State team that made it to the Final Four and are a #1 seed this season. That was just a bad luck draw for Gonzaga and the Zags other recent early tournament exits were all to better teams. This year’s Zags aren’t getting the love that that they used to get but they’re another solid squad that could very easily find themselves in the Sweet 16 thanks to a combination of very good defense (14th in compensated points per possession allowed) and good shooting (14th in 2-point FG% and 24th in 3-point percentage). Gonzaga didn’t play any elite teams this season, so it’s tough to know who they’d do against a very good team but the Zags’ defensive efficiency is relatively much better against better offensive teams, which could lead to an upset if that trend continues.
Oklahoma State is the best of the teams with double-digit losses, as the 21-12 Cowboys have the talent of a top-10 team and started to play like it when star Marcus Smart returned from a 3 game suspension that capped off a 7 game losing streak. Six of those seven losses were to NCAA Tournament teams with 3 of them by 3 points or less or in overtime and the Cowboys won 5 of 7 games after Smart’s return to the lineup with both losses coming in overtime to good teams Iowa State and Kansas (they also beat Kansas 72-65). Oklahoma State is still just 4-8 against NCAA caliber teams with Smart in the lineup (0-3 without him) and they’ve been consistently worse on a relative basis against better teams under coach Ford. My ratings counting all games equally, with Smart playing, would favor Oklahoma State by 3 points but my NCAA Tournament ratings, which put more weight on performance against better teams and diminish the affect of blowout wins over lesser teams, favors the Cowboys by just 0.7 points (using only games with Smart playing). Oklahoma State applies to a negative 11-30 ATS first round situation that is based on their early exit from their conference tournament (not a good omen historically) and I’ll lean with Gonzaga as an underdog. I have no opinion on the total as my math projects 138 total points.
